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The Really Useless Thread

  • #143,461
  • Sep 22, 2016 1:36pm Sep 22, 2016 1:36pm
Calm session and day after FED is over. All clear across the board. Equities entering in choppy/slugish up mode.

Dollar bears in 'borrowed time' after FED with a soft calendar in their favour but in urgent need of bad news to avoid capitulation.

More interestingly, we have a very tradable 'roll' play for today in the Yen (UJ). First day of trading in Tokyo overnight after the FED/BOJ with 100.8x as key level for the play and to set high and low of the year...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,462
  • Sep 22, 2016 1:42pm Sep 22, 2016 1:42pm
How data dependent is FED ? How did you guys get it yesterday ? I am not sure what to think about it.

Are 3 inlines NFP mandatory for a rate hike in December ?

Last year, September FOMC conclusions were nearly the same. Then, we got a serious NFP undershoot in October (142k vs 201k + revision 136k vs 173k), but the strong overshoot in November (271k vs 181k) made the deal : I remember, after that print, that there was a consensus (on this thread and on the markets) that FED will hike in December (but well, there was also a mouth slip from JY just before If I remember well). In December, last NFP was inline (maybe it made the things easier for the FED but I am not sure if a slight undershoot would have postponed hike).

So can we consider that similar data in the upcoming months will satisfy FED ?

Just trying to match facts with FED rhetoric...
  • #143,463
  • Edited 2:00pm Sep 22, 2016 1:45pm | Edited 2:00pm
Don't get too close to the market guys- FOMC just happened yesterday.....we still have 2 months before next rate hike. The chances of breaking the FOMC low is slim until December

However; we maybe establishing the new short term range
  • #143,464
  • Sep 22, 2016 1:59pm Sep 22, 2016 1:59pm
On another note, dollar is getting ready to pop as soon as October
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  • #143,465
  • Sep 22, 2016 2:48pm Sep 22, 2016 2:48pm
Quoting sisse
More interestingly, we have a very tradable 'roll' play for today in the Yen (UJ). First day of trading in Tokyo overnight after the FED/BOJ with 100.8x as key level for the play and to set high and low of the year... sisse
I'm not sure if I understand well your call Sisse, but let me try!
Depends on tonight Japan data (i.e., Flash Manufacturing PMI and All Industries Activity m/m), we will loose 100.8x up or down. So 100.8x is the momentum that we should look at it closely. Please correct me if am I wrong!
  • #143,466
  • Edited 5:16am Sep 23, 2016 4:54am | Edited 5:16am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Can we say that your third scenario has already started? Thanks by the way for sharing!
hi fadhl, well it depends. as for now:

this is what I posted prior to FED - in both (E/U and SP500 (DAX analogical, check backposts) we are still in neutral - as sisse said - no outlook changes after FED)

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As for now:

E/U: I was not sure if we go for scenarion 1 (completely inline) or 3 ((slightly) dovis) - but I added the trendline (not fan of them but this one seems ok) - and seems we just playng the scenarion 1 + macro from EU keep the flow down. But of course cannot deny we stil can visit the top. So Im not playing so far E/U until some new info. I think the post-FED bounce was not worth it R/R wise. The arrow to the downside just suggests my path of next short term leg down - nothing guaranteed/depends how everything evolves datavise.

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Sp500: its the scenario left on the chart. thats the only one I played after FED. We may visit the ATH as soon as today/next week (seems sisse is gonna be right with bumby ride to ATH) and thats when Im gonna jump off. Who knows - it can go further (extreme or the line or any other new ATH). Not interested there.


US500:

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P.S.: it seems the post-FED flow was pretty easy this time (however, nothing super tradable) - but with light callender - E/U can be bouncing all next week (as suggested on the chart) and US500 can be slowly approaching ATH. So well see. Whats more interesting is the question of next short term leg after we jump off FED/BOJ free money train. I will Try to post some ideas later. But Im very unsure on that

P.S.: the arrows on the charts are just indicatory also timewise. so they suggest the direction, lvls and only very roughly the time horizont. I mean, bet everyone gets it, but just saying that the price does not have to be identical with the arrow, of course

Have a great light trading day everyone hopefully we get some upside with NY on SP500
  • #143,467
  • Sep 23, 2016 7:16am Sep 23, 2016 7:16am
A calm European session with slightly better reports. The EZ definitely found a solid bottom last Quarter in the macro front but sadly Brexit toll is on tgr horizon to be too cheerful the rest of the year.

I keep smelling blood in the Euro the last couple of weeks. Something is already in the oven and ready to go ...Failure to take the handle will be enough to sit tight and stay put....

Until then, NY for Equities and nothing to do...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,468
  • Sep 23, 2016 7:19am Sep 23, 2016 7:19am
really enjoying your analysis chester

good morning thread
  • #143,469
  • Sep 23, 2016 7:27am Sep 23, 2016 7:27am
Quoting Pharm0r
really enjoying your analysis chester good morning thread
I second that.

He has really move miles and miles forward in his market and trading analysis. Its a pleasure to read. IMO, he will get far in this business.

Moreover, he has 'internalise all the FA and TA concepts in such great level if detail in his own framework making all his post very sound and interesting. Consistent results are there or around the corner..

More than deserved 2 thumbs up for Chester.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,470
  • Sep 23, 2016 7:48am Sep 23, 2016 7:48am
Too bad it's Friday, I'd like to short EU for the range play

Looks like GU is setting up for a test of the lows next week
  • #143,471
  • Sep 23, 2016 10:38am Sep 23, 2016 10:38am
...and that was pretty much it for the week with Europe going home. Very very very soft reaction so far on the FX board from the FED and Dollar is aligning for a clean sweep across the board on the slightest push from reports.

All loaded in Yen here for the close and more interestingly and rather a bit unexpected after the FED, eyes on Euro 1.122x for the W roll as we are set for a very powerful and very seldom available W 'roll play' ....

Loaded here in currencies, flat in commodities and soft short term positions on the rest of the board ...

Quoting IMARICH1
LONG NIGHT. Got home at 3am sisse when you were up and ready to go! As promised.....I really feel you will make me appear foolish when to me its a no brainer. Perhaps, I will learn something here as I learn better with visuals than just words. {image}
On the pending conversations:

@IMARICH i see your chart still I ask you the same question now with your chart:
-> how do you define a Resistance or Support? Explain to a Granma/somebody with 0 experience in trading and charts in 2 lines where? and
-> how? should I draw those lines....
-> Why you are deciding to choose some swings for R and S and not others? why?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,472
  • Sep 23, 2016 10:45am Sep 23, 2016 10:45am
sisse,

When price reaches a point where it is going up and stops and reverses downward that is Resistance where price reversed

AND.......

When price reaches a point where it is going down and stops and reverses upwards that is Support were price reversed

I would look at Longer Time Frame Charts to find these levels or R and S areas. A support on a 1 hr chart may not be any support on a Day Chart. I try to find D, W and Monthly Support and Resistance that coincide with each other.
  • #143,473
  • Sep 23, 2016 11:06am Sep 23, 2016 11:06am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, When price reaches a point where it is going up and stops and reverses downward that is Resistance where price reversed AND....... When price reaches a point where it is going down and stops and reverses upwards that is Support were price reversed I would look at Longer Time Frame Charts to find these levels or R and S areas. A support on a 1 hr chart may not be any support on a Day Chart. I try to find D, W and Monthly Support and Resistance that coincide with each other.
I believe "Prices change with Memories" (Mandelbrot), so Resistant and Support Zones (Extreme Area) may exist.

Pic #1 H>0.5 Positive Memory
Pic #2 Positive Memory Return of SP 500 2001-2009

Consistent in-line with Sisse cheat sheet Extreme Area (Top and Bottom).
Attached Images
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #143,474
  • Sep 23, 2016 11:11am Sep 23, 2016 11:11am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} I believe "Prices change with Memories" (Mandelbrot), so Resistant and Support Zones (Extreme Area) may exist. Pic #1 H>0.5 Positive Memory Pic #2 Positive Memory Return of SP 500 2001-2009 Consistent in-line with Sisse cheat sheet Extreme Area (Top and Bottom). {image} {image}



"Explain to a Granma/somebody with 0 experience in trading and charts in 2 lines where? and
-> how? should I draw those lines."

I did not understand anything of it

What Imarich1 write I understand , But a chart or line where he explains it would help.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,475
  • Sep 23, 2016 11:30am Sep 23, 2016 11:30am
Quote
When price reaches a point where it is going down and stops and reverses upwards that is Support were price reversed

--> That doesn't mean anything mate. It's like asking you whats you trading plan?: and you replying Sell high/buy low .... yes sure nice but what does it mean in practice and TA terms.

--> Look I am being annoying with this because I am trying to force you to standardise and have a CONSISTENT TA framework in whatever TA tools you use (in this case pure price).

--> You have hear me a a million times hammering those with a machine gun approach but equally bad or worst are those traders that use every single weapon on the arsenal regardless of your plan of action ( trying to force TA or/chart fit trades, etc) so they end up using a nuke to kill an ant and 2 hours later they try to use a knife to fight a tank ... basically anything than satisfy your analysis ...that is one of the worst things you can see around these boards (and you sound like you are edging toward that with you TA analysis)

Point being you must be able to automatically define how do you use your TA tools (price based or else). So if its a MACD 12/26/9 thats the answer period. If its a S or R? what is the answer?

Let me walk you though from some very basic ...

According to your definition:
" When price reaches a point where it is going down and stops and reverses upwards "

It implies every time a candle change colour from green to red (up and down) you have a S/R ...which is the most useless and misleading definition of S and R.

-> How can you define a R or an S in chart without the benefit of 100 candles hindsight?

Why these are R and S

Attached Image


and why these are not R or S...

Attached Image


or are they both?

It may sound extremely annoying for a seasoned trader like you to talk about these basic concepts but honestly I think not only you but a few around have serious troubles with consistency both TA and risk management wise ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,476
  • Sep 23, 2016 11:45am Sep 23, 2016 11:45am
I don't sisse....

It seems like I am the dumb kid in the room being asked why 1+1=2. One item plus one item is 2.

If I see candles not going any higher in a range on a longer term time frame then I call that True Resistance and if I see candles not piercing thru a level than that's S
Support.

I know I would look at wicks to see if BUYERS or SELLERS are REALLY present. LONG WICKS indicate bigger supplies and demands....

I don't know how to answer this question. I guess my thinking on it is wrong and I will await to be shown and taught then for me to continue rambling about nothing.....
  • #143,477
  • Sep 23, 2016 1:07pm Sep 23, 2016 1:07pm
I am sure I will get scolded here with "Why all the lines? I asked you to mark 2 simple lines.....and you just f'd it up".....

I am a visual learner.....Better yet, A slow learner....
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  • #143,478
  • Sep 23, 2016 1:16pm Sep 23, 2016 1:16pm
A plethora of news from Europe especially in the last couple of hours from OIL to lots of job cuts in the UK banking sector staring to be officially announced from next year (+/- 150k and counting just today ) while lots of details and official offers from Ireland, Germany and the Netherlands trying to grab the biggest piece of this part of the pie (the EU financial hub part of London)that will start departing or reshuffling from next year.

Sterling losing foot as consequences and triggering [what was expected x Q3] the BOE Nov calls for bazooka 2.0 if we start getting more confirmations in this front or if numbers start softening down (as is expected from Q3 onwards).

More importantly and a bit unexpected timing wise, GU is triggering major imminent break down alerts for the W close. Euro fighting very hard to hold 1.122x but a failure will trigger the W roll play ....

Unexpected end of the week giving the timid FED but we are aligning for very decent moves across the FX board....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,479
  • Sep 23, 2016 1:30pm Sep 23, 2016 1:30pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> How can you define a R or an S in chart without the benefit of 100 candles hindsight? Why these are R and S {image} and why these are not R or S... {image} or are they both? ...sisse
I see myself in the same boat of unknowledgeable or confused trader and therefore I would provide an answer to this topic.
The first chart shows a real S and R and the second one not at all.
A price level may be Support and Resistance when an upper/down movement is stopped and reversed to the opposite side and continue in the new trend. The stops are called Resistance. and the reversals with at least two candles are called Supports.
  • #143,480
  • Sep 23, 2016 1:48pm Sep 23, 2016 1:48pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} e
I think the second resistance in chart 2 is currently resistance until invalidated..whereas the support is no longer support (invalidated by pierce through)..
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