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AUD/USD

  • #98,921
  • Sep 16, 2016 10:52am Sep 16, 2016 10:52am
im surprised at how the aud is holding the range between 7476 to 7490 for the past 2 hours. been riding it up then selling it down. numerous times already for an average of 8pips earned per trade. wonderful R/R to play with.

i suspect the aud will be held within a relatively narrow range next week as we wait on the fed. AUD fundamentals now are all about yield differentials, and so it's all about whether we're gonna see a US rate hike. a sept hike may already be quite fully priced in so there's a chance we might see the AUD rally even a hike is done. sell the rumour, buy the fact. good weekend!
  • #98,922
  • Sep 18, 2016 10:54pm Sep 18, 2016 10:54pm
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TP1 @ 0.7410
TP2 @ 0.7340
For weekly TF AU price now at resistance (Pin Bar) @ 0.7535/40
Nxt best selling price is @ 0.7600 (50% fibo)
  • #98,923
  • Sep 19, 2016 5:07am Sep 19, 2016 5:07am
Currently the trend is moving upwards. To the point of 0.75486 and will test the resistance. Or, if the bull does not have the strength to go with trend then this trend will go down with the bear at 0.75215.I anticipate when the price gets to the resistance line and decide to buy or sell.
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  • #98,924
  • Sep 19, 2016 5:15am Sep 19, 2016 5:15am
I am falling in love with this pair..
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #98,925
  • Sep 19, 2016 9:50am Sep 19, 2016 9:50am
Overbought much?? Or was it oversold much last week?? Looking for this to get back down to .7500-.7525.
Enter Signature
  • #98,926
  • Edited 10:40am Sep 19, 2016 10:24am | Edited 10:40am
Quoting san99
Overbought much?? Or was it oversold much last week?? Looking for this to get back down to .7500-.7525.
the latter....quite definitely oversold. the selling was in response to "raised" prospects for a fed hike after all those bullish fed speakers. i wouldn't rush to go short, although i took up a small short at 7567 anticipating a correction since the Aud has completed a round trip at that level from a week ago.

10-14 Sept - drop from 7580-7440 - bullish fed speakers (with a little blip from the dovish two)
14-16 Sept - consolidation between 7440-7490 - market lying in wait for US data to give direction
18 Sept TODAY - based on the data and clues from fed speakers, market has decided that the risk of September Fed hike have been dissolved, therefore the unwinding of long USD positions and resulting sharp recovery in the Aud. also buoyed by risk-on sentiment

So where it goes next - one simple thing to watch - whether or not the Fed indeed raises rates on 21 Sept, plus their accompanying statement. It's all about yield differentials.

Also note that the RBNZ rate decision comes 3 hours after the Fed. That will be an Aud mover too.

Scenarios

1) No Sept hike, but hawkish statement - slight drop in Aud. may even appreciate (buy the fact)
2) No Sept hike, no hawkish elements in statement - there's only one way the Aud will go
3) Sept hike - rapid fall in Aud; but if the fed signals the medium end to interest rate cuts, the fall may be contained


Good luck trading this week!
  • #98,927
  • Sep 20, 2016 6:24am Sep 20, 2016 6:24am
Non Commercials remain net long.
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  • #98,928
  • Sep 20, 2016 1:36pm Sep 20, 2016 1:36pm
does this pair hit the .76 level??
i am waiting to close my positions at that point but it stuck on .7550 today ... if any one have any news or technical analysis please share latest it will be highly appreciated.
Thank you.
  • #98,929
  • Sep 20, 2016 2:07pm Sep 20, 2016 2:07pm
Quoting Zakhar13
Currently the trend is moving upwards. To the point of 0.75486 and will test the resistance. Or, if the bull does not have the strength to go with trend then this trend will go down with the bear at 0.75215.I anticipate when the price gets to the resistance line and decide to buy or sell. {image}
Hi. My experience with channels and trend line is when we realize there is a channel it is too late. Because when you see the channel, thousands of retail traders also recognise the channel. Now, what the big guys (banks) need to do? Make money - take it from retail. So they break the channel. That is why Iam not really relying on channels, bacause everybody can see them and banks and other big players know that and they play against you. Does it make any sense to you guys? Anyway, have a good trading today.
  • #98,930
  • Sep 20, 2016 2:59pm Sep 20, 2016 2:59pm
Quoting Trader-Dale
{quote} Hi. My experience with channels and trend line is when we realize there is a channel it is too late. Because when you see the channel, thousands of retail traders also recognise the channel. Now, what the big guys (banks) need to do? Make money - take it from retail. So they break the channel. That is why Iam not really relying on channels, bacause everybody can see them and banks and other big players know that and they play against you. Does it make any sense to you guys? Anyway, have a good trading today.
This is correct
The Market is always right
  • #98,931
  • Sep 21, 2016 3:28am Sep 21, 2016 3:28am
Check out this trading idea guys, i like it.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AU...-Trend-Change/
consistency wins
  • #98,932
  • Sep 21, 2016 3:41am Sep 21, 2016 3:41am
Quoting iTrader
Check out this trading idea guys, i like it. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AU...-Trend-Change/
Agreed
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,933
  • Sep 21, 2016 3:44am Sep 21, 2016 3:44am
Quoting asad20465
does this pair hit the .76 level?? i am waiting to close my positions at that point but it stuck on .7550 today ... if any one have any news or technical analysis please share latest it will be highly appreciated. Thank you.
Yes I think it will hit .76 then sell off. strong resistance at this level. But anything can happen in a few hours from now.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,934
  • Sep 21, 2016 4:48am Sep 21, 2016 4:48am
Hi guys, have look at my intraday trading levels for aud/usd. they are based mostly on volumes made by big players and price action. I also make levels for other fx pairs. Have look at my table. If you want I can send you my levels every day. Happy trading today mates
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  • #98,935
  • Sep 21, 2016 8:17am Sep 21, 2016 8:17am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Yes I think it will hit .76 then sell off. strong resistance at this level. But anything can happen in a few hours from now.
good call
  • #98,936
  • Sep 22, 2016 2:44am Sep 22, 2016 2:44am
Hi guys, have look at my intraday trading levels for aud/usd. they are based mostly on volumes made by big players and price action. I also make levels for other fx pairs. Have look at my table. If you want I can send you my levels every day.
Happy trading
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Attached Image
  • #98,937
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:57am Sep 22, 2016 3:57am
Quoting Trader-Dale
Hi guys, have look at my intraday trading levels for aud/usd. they are based mostly on volumes made by big players and price action. I also make levels for other fx pairs. Have look at my table. If you want I can send you my levels every day. Happy trading {image} {image}
Well done!

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #98,938
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:50am Sep 22, 2016 8:50am
Quoting Trader-Dale
Hi guys, have look at my intraday trading levels for aud/usd. they are based mostly on volumes made by big players and price action. I also make levels for other fx pairs. Have look at my table. If you want I can send you my levels every day. Happy trading {image} {image}
Just took profit + 10 pips on aud/usd trade - on the level I posted here in the morning. Did you guys also get it?
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  • #98,939
  • Sep 22, 2016 10:11am Sep 22, 2016 10:11am
Quoting Trader-Dale
{quote} Just took profit + 10 pips on aud/usd trade - on the level I posted here in the morning. Did you guys also get it? {image}
yeap. moves like this are great for catching the bounce off resistance. very clear resistance lines, with 7676 being a strong one.

me thinks this pair still has a bit more room to run before any thought of a proper downtrend fits in (see chart).
for now, will buy if it reaches 7636 and short from 7690 for 10pips profit target.
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  • #98,940
  • Sep 22, 2016 10:22am Sep 22, 2016 10:22am
I'm probably being dense but why was 7676 a resistance point? I can't qualify it on daily or 4HR charts?
I am not disputing it, would just appreciate the education :-)
Cheers
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