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The Really Useless Thread

  • #143,441
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:57am Sep 22, 2016 8:57am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Why it is not legal as if they cannot re-vote? .... & if in any case brexit is a done deal ... then i dont think the 400 pips is the complete scene and this is why i think sisse is repeatedly saying that the short-circuit on e/u & G/u will come from europe side not from the US ..... Hope i am right .... and correct me if iam wrong
well, Im not expert in british constitutional law as I prefer written constitutions but as far as I know its binding even for the parliament. so any option would be to hold another referendum. cannot imagine which politicians would dare to do so and spit into the eyes of those who voted for brexit. not mentiong what kind of disgrace it would be for the democratic principles. even greece was enough to bury the european democracy. why add another nail to the coffin? plus the damage has been made ideologically (even closer union is gone) and I do not think anyone on the EU political side would want GB in after all this.

So yes, Its possible, but extremely unlikely.

P.S.: not to be misten... Im not fan of Brexit.... its just question of some principles.

and the range. well. its true that on E/U the impact of brexit so far has been limited. bet its somewhat connected with the outflows from GB. but as far there are no new informations I find the price action adequate up til today.
  • #143,442
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:59am Sep 22, 2016 8:59am
Quoting sisse
{quote} US election itself very little to none.... the only thing that will trigger a bit of risk is the nutter starting to close the gap in the polls and becoming more polarising and anti free markets, trade and anti all that imply using more that 2 neurones...Not expected at least for now. If he wins, and start walking his talk that will be a different issue for 2017 and beyond as global markets, free trade and all that is good about the world economy will be under serious threat from both side of the Atlantic .... On the UK and...
Don't really care but Ummm...Trump is ahead in polls.

Would consider that irresponsible at best...at worst, well....
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #143,443
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:03am Sep 22, 2016 9:03am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Don't really care but Ummm...Trump is ahead in polls. Would consider that irresponsible at best...at worst, well....
Trump is behind in all polls. Reports that he is closing the gap abound. But they will be short lived in my estimation as debates ensue. Even this morning the gap has widened. She is showing a 6 point lead in two big ones.
  • #143,444
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:07am Sep 22, 2016 9:07am
I know I've said this multiple times every time the subject comes up- so again- what changed my trading was trading for the long term, not the short term, and realizing that greater than 7% gain a year is a good return...everything else is gravy. 7-20% on 100,000 might not seem like much, but 7-20% on 2 million is a damn nice salary. 100,000 can be turned into 2,000,000 relatively easily in the span of 5-10 years.

For the leverage is use (1000 pip draw down would = 25% of my account), 7-10% can be had within 4-7 trades. That is why I take profits early on almost every trade, because If I can average even 1% a month, I'm ahead of the game as far as I'm concerned.....I wasn't always that way, sisse used to hammer me for machine gun trading which was directly caused by restlessness
  • #143,445
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:08am Sep 22, 2016 9:08am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Don't really care but Ummm...Trump is ahead in polls. Would consider that irresponsible at best...at worst, well....
Long time, how goes your thread? I've been wondering when you'd say hello
  • #143,446
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:12am Sep 22, 2016 9:12am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Long time, how goes your thread? I've been wondering when you'd say hello
Nice to see you, it goes well, mostly only post there but could not let that slide. Sorry.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #143,447
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:13am Sep 22, 2016 9:13am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Trump is behind in all polls. Reports that he is closing the gap abound. But they will be short lived in my estimation as debates ensue. Even this morning the gap has widened. She is showing a 6 point lead in two big ones.
Nope. That is why irresponsible imo.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...se_watch_sep22
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #143,448
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:37am Sep 22, 2016 9:37am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Nope. That is why irresponsible imo. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...se_watch_sep22
But....Rasmussen. Widely known to be Republican biased and inaccurate. Nate Silver does a good job of rating these pollsters if your interested. Anyway. Makes my point that pollsters are in the biz of selling polls. And since this isn't the politics thread, I'll leave it there.
  • #143,449
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:44am Sep 22, 2016 9:44am
I think we could go as far as to say the polls are largely biased bs either way
  • #143,450
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:47am Sep 22, 2016 9:47am
Quoting Pharm0r
I think we could go as far as to say the polls are largely biased bs either way
Agreed. I like the gambling sites. People with real money on the line don't spin.
  • #143,451
  • Edited 10:18am Sep 22, 2016 9:55am | Edited 10:18am
Quoting chester123
{quote} well, Im not expert in british constitutional law as I prefer written constitutions but as far as I know its binding even for the parliament.
That's not correct IMO. The sovereign is the Queen in her Parliament. Whatever is decided by referendum has no legal and binding force. The Brexit decided by referendum has absolutely no legal force at all .
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #143,452
  • Sep 22, 2016 11:03am Sep 22, 2016 11:03am
Europe going home in a very decent day for trading. Equities pretty much completing the main leg (crumbs left before attempting an attack to ATH) from the FED flows. We will need some extra push from good data very soon as the rally is made on fumes and not sustainable for much longer without a real push from the macro front....

For those in the OIL trade, that was pretty much it after taken the $46 handle back, stopped out on the remaining positions and flat across the commodity board here ....

sisse

Quoting primejarvis
A Q to sisse ... what & when do you expect article 50 to come into play..
Politically, the EU has the upper hand until this year so the UK is delaying as much as possible any decision. From Q1/Q2 2017 the UK will have the upper-hand as Germany and France enter in election mode.... my random guess is the UK will want to inflict maximum pain in the negotiations so around April/May sounds about right before the table turns back against both via recession and slowdown on uncertainty...

Quote
. and there are many rumors that brexit wont start the process of article 50 and wont leave the European zone.. Rumors(brexit will one way or the other will become bremain) ....

They are out by default. They signed their sentence the day after the vote for a generation or two .... The question is not if but which exit door will choose. Up to today the UK is choosing the very very very backdoor...we'll see how it turns out in the next few months...

Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Don't really care but Ummm...Trump is ahead in polls. Would consider that irresponsible at best...at worst, well....
Is the same that with Brexit you need to be very careful with the sources of the polls. The nutter and friends control and very sadly manipulate a good chunk of the low quality/low IQ press for the masses while the Clintons influence a good chunk of the of the other side of the public opinion .... Check 'objective' and balance sources like the economist/FT and etc (they were spot on the Brexit vote while the bias ones flop massively).

Too early to see but as its stand right now 54 /46 but with a good chunk of undecided and lots of shame voters that wont said out loud they will vote for the nutcase to avoid getting humiliate in public ...

Check back in mid Oct if things start getting tighter ...until then Trump will profit from any noise he can make in the press ... thats how populism works with the extra add on in this case that he has 'unlimited' resources in most media outlets to move the unaware masses to the abysm ....

For trading is nothing to see so far ... but we obviously will keep a close eye the closer we get to elections.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,453
  • Sep 22, 2016 11:04am Sep 22, 2016 11:04am
Started building short position in BUND's again.
First shot @ 165,30 in the december series which equals 168 from the september series just below ATH
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #143,454
  • Sep 22, 2016 11:33am Sep 22, 2016 11:33am
Quoting maximinus
{quote} That's not correct IMO. The sovereign is the Queen in her Parliament. Whatever is decided by referendum has no legal and binding force. The Brexit decided by referendum has absolutely no legal force at all .
seems you right says google. connected with the doctrine of sovereign parliament. in my country we cannot even have "non-legally" binding referendums. actually, from just a theory perspective.... If not legally binding I dont think it should be called referendum as its more like a consultation/consultative "referendum". so one of the arguments for "almost sure brexit" is gone. however, what stays is the complete democratic illegitimicy of the decision to stay (if EU would be willing to keep GB) shoudl parliament decide that way - not likely anyway.
  • #143,455
  • Sep 22, 2016 11:57am Sep 22, 2016 11:57am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Yes, a patience problem and entering too early too much at once. There will be other setups. Be careful with UJ, not the direction, but " too early too much " part, because it affects the judgement. Plus, important is when you fully load and pre- FOMC is not the best for doing that. But, those are details that can be repaired .

Hey FIsher.... Why art thou forsaken us over at the 1 year prof. thread??? Please come back ... and bring Roels with you
  • #143,456
  • Sep 22, 2016 12:02pm Sep 22, 2016 12:02pm
Quoting Koop
{quote} Hey FIsher.... Why art thou forsaken us over at the 1 year prof. thread??? Please come back ... and bring Roels with you
What?
I've moved on, buddy. I have certain opinion about the starter of that thread.
PVSRA
  • #143,457
  • Sep 22, 2016 12:21pm Sep 22, 2016 12:21pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} seems you right says google. connected with the doctrine of sovereign parliament. in my country we cannot even have "non-legally" binding referendums. actually, from just a theory perspective.... If not legally binding I dont think it should be called referendum as its more like a consultation/consultative "referendum". so one of the arguments for "almost sure brexit" is gone. however, what stays is the complete democratic illegitimicy of the decision to stay (if EU would be willing to keep GB) shoudl parliament decide that way - not likely...
Similar to the Greek one in terms of legally binding. Not similar when the political stakes (suicide) are considered. Is "politically binding" a term to be used? It's kind of moot anyway I guess as its hard to get your ex to take you back once you tell her to piss off.
  • #143,458
  • Sep 22, 2016 12:32pm Sep 22, 2016 12:32pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote}  I guess as its hard to get your ex to take you back once you tell her to piss off.
But ex comes back when you have your banks loaded with money .... Power of money ... Sentiments change according to situations
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,459
  • Sep 22, 2016 12:50pm Sep 22, 2016 12:50pm
Quoting Goldflake
My call Buy & TP: 1.1240 No Idea abt 1.1310..
Wondering why didn't reach 1.1310
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #143,460
  • Sep 22, 2016 1:34pm Sep 22, 2016 1:34pm
Quoting chester123
3) no hike and dovish than the expectation = watch projections and dot plot (lower inflation/growth? lower pathh of interest rates?). (short term outlook remains neutral unless major dovishness)
Can we say that your third scenario has already started? Thanks by the way for sharing!
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