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  • #143,421
  • Sep 22, 2016 7:25am Sep 22, 2016 7:25am
Good morning
  • #143,422
  • Sep 22, 2016 7:29am Sep 22, 2016 7:29am
So now expectations have moved to december hike, which means a relief rally probably into another dip...

So in the spirit of that how about a game of "where to short?"

At a norm now....but seems awful early doesnt it?
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  • #143,423
  • Sep 22, 2016 7:41am Sep 22, 2016 7:41am
Quoting Pharm0r
So now expectations have moved to december hike, which means a relief rally probably into another dip... So in the spirit of that how about a game of "where to short?" At a norm now....but seems awful early doesnt it? {image}
Yes, early, plus late in the week, so nothing until next week at least.
Plus weekly candle suggests bullish close...
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EDIT:
We picked up the most terrible ranging pair to focus on..
PVSRA
  • #143,424
  • Sep 22, 2016 7:51am Sep 22, 2016 7:51am
Quoting Pharm0r
So now expectations have moved to december hike, which means a relief rally probably into another dip... So in the spirit of that how about a game of "where to short?" At a norm now....but seems awful early doesnt it? {image}
I keep my strong opinion that the move in the Euro will come from Europe not from the US ... For now, Euro failing to take the handle this week will leave us in untradable chop until further data ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,425
  • Sep 22, 2016 7:51am Sep 22, 2016 7:51am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Yes, early, plus late in the week, so nothing until next week at least. Plus weekly candle suggests bullish close... {image} EDIT: We picked up the most terrible ranging pair to focus on..
Very true and agreed

Have been wanting to play GU....it's at the range flip currently

Cant afford to play DAX yet
  • #143,426
  • Sep 22, 2016 7:59am Sep 22, 2016 7:59am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I keep my strong opinion that the move in the Euro will come from Europe not from the US ... For now, Euro failing to take the handle this week will leave us in untradable chop until further data ... sisse
Sisse, Q as usual

What will be the impact of pre-US-election jitters on USD? None is my guess only if we turn extremely pro-Trump in polls - maybe a short term risk-off? USD positive?

In EU: what can be the treiggr? Article 50/other elections is for Q1 2017 and beyond. So macro front or italian banks or deutschebank for Q4?
  • #143,427
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:02am Sep 22, 2016 8:02am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Very true and agreed Have been wanting to play GU....it's at the range flip currently Cant afford to play DAX yet
I am long GU- but mostly to hedge UJ longs that are consolidating at the bottom- extreme and plan to close out GU this week, because imo UJ will more or less stay here until next week. And firm GU HTF longs are not of my taste..
PVSRA
  • #143,428
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:08am Sep 22, 2016 8:08am
Looking for sisse's thoughts on EU as well....seems ongoing brexit fiasco only big one that I can find he's mentioned
  • #143,429
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:09am Sep 22, 2016 8:09am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Sisse, Q as usual What will be the impact of pre-US-election jitters on USD? None is my guess only if we turn extremely pro-Trump in polls - maybe a short term risk-off? USD positive? In EU: what can be the treiggr? Article 50/other elections is for Q1 2017 and beyond. So macro front or italian banks or deutschebank for Q4?
US election itself very little to none.... the only thing that will trigger a bit of risk is the nutter starting to close the gap in the polls and becoming more polarising and anti free markets, trade and anti all that imply using more that 2 neurones...Not expected at least for now.

If he wins, and start walking his talk that will be a different issue for 2017 and beyond as global markets, free trade and all that is good about the world economy will be under serious threat from both side of the Atlantic ....

On the UK and Europe, yeap the checkpoints for the mid term crisis/risk map are crystal clear for next year. We may get some fireworks before year's end with some populist talking heads trying to profit from the crisis before the real deal begins ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,430
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:12am Sep 22, 2016 8:12am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} I am long GU- but mostly to hedge UJ longs that are consolidating at the bottom- extreme and plan to close out GU this week, because imo UJ will more or less stay here until next week. And firm GU HTF longs are not of my taste..
Yeah, I wanted to long GU yesterday (as I mentioned) but the timing with FED just wasn't doing it for me considering the air below the only support in place right now. That and longs on GU just doesn't sit well with me considering brexit- only really want to short it for the foreseeable future

With that being said, I can't even admit that bidding on EU sits well with me....again because of brexit, and the inevitable grexit that will come back around and other "exits" that may stem from the first two

I've lost a lot of money on UJ in the past, just cant seem to get on the right side of that pair....so I haven't traded it in the last year or two. I wonder if it could be the obvious government intervention?
  • #143,431
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:17am Sep 22, 2016 8:17am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Yeah, I wanted to long GU yesterday (as I mentioned) but the timing with FED just wasn't doing it for me considering the air below the only support in place right now. That and longs on GU just doesn't sit well with me considering brexit- only really want to short it for the foreseeable future With that being said, I can't even admit that bidding on EU sits well with me....again because of brexit, and the inevitable grexit that will come back around and other "exits" that may stem from the first two I've lost a lot of money on UJ in the...
I'm sure you are more expirienced now regarding money management.
We have very cute rule here that Sisse once mentioned and I like it very much.

Goes something like this- at the extreme not much to think about- place the trade with SL cca 50 pips below/above the extreme.
After you place hundreds of such, you cannot be red, imho. Just look at how EU is ranging..
The only problem I have is waiting and waiting and waiting..
PVSRA
  • #143,432
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:26am Sep 22, 2016 8:26am
Debates should help clarify the direction of the US elections. Really the reaction to them in polls. For now it seems to me the pollsters who have an interest in showing a close race (they are generally for profit enterprises of course and need to sell their wares) are able to do that without checks. After debates begin, as long as some actual policy discussion sneaks it's way into the inevitable 2 hours of schoolyard 'tit for tat', then the tough guy will have to show his cards on that level (jack high at best) and the pollsters will have no choice but to show theirs. At that point only downticket races will be in question. So I don't look for any us election shock to markets unless an October surprise pops up since from where I'm sitting, he can't win. She has to lose. And that looks like a considerable longshot. Debates start Monday. Things will get clearer from that point on and I imagine talk of risk to markets via elections here start to quiet from that point forward.
  • #143,433
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:27am Sep 22, 2016 8:27am
A Q to sisse ...

what & when do you expect article 50 to come into play... and there are many rumors that brexit wont start the process of article 50 and wont leave the European zone.. Rumors(brexit will one way or the other will become bremain)

--------------------------------


nice H&S in h4...
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,434
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:30am Sep 22, 2016 8:30am
Quoting primejarvis
A Q to sisse ... what & when do you expect article 50 to come into play... and there are many rumors that brexit wont start the process of article 50 and wont leave the European zone.. Rumors(brexit will one way or the other will become bremain) -------------------------------- nice H&S in h4...
I have no idea when (my guess is Q1/Q2) but Im absolutely sure (99,9%) that it will happen. I dont see any space for bremain. There is no space for that ideologically, politically or legally.
  • #143,435
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:34am Sep 22, 2016 8:34am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} I'm sure you are more expirienced now regarding money management. We have very cute rule here that Sisse once mentioned and I like it very much. Goes something like this- at the extreme not much to think about- place the trade with SL cca 50 pips below/above the extreme. After you place hundreds of such, you cannot be red, imho. Just look at how EU is ranging.. The only problem I have is waiting and waiting and waiting..
same here only waiting waiting & waiting ..... after a very long time i am losing my patience .... i dont have a problem with my S/L because its way beyond .... this chop chop game is really making me frustrated .... every next day we thought oh! atleast now its getting a direction and guess what the very next day PA reaches back to square one....
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,436
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:36am Sep 22, 2016 8:36am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} I'm sure you are more expirienced now regarding money management. We have very cute rule here that Sisse once mentioned and I like it very much. Goes something like this- at the extreme not much to think about- place the trade with SL cca 50 pips below/above the extreme. After you place hundreds of such, you cannot be red, imho. Just look at how EU is ranging.. The only problem I have is waiting and waiting and waiting..
Something the most Amazing that Sisse told is "When ranging you trade to the inside", but still waiting is boring. See what USD/CAD done.

Agree. Not much hope on EU and GU. At the "Flip" Area. FLIP (Sisse told is not the middle Area, but in My own term I said this to show Mid) GU at 1.3100.
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fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #143,437
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:39am Sep 22, 2016 8:39am
I look for 100 pips per week. EU more or less gives me that. Range is good. Just need to pick the zones right.
  • #143,438
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:41am Sep 22, 2016 8:41am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Something the most Amazing that Sisse told is "When ranging you trade to the inside", but still waiting is boring. See what USD/CAD done. Agree. Not much hope on EU and GU. At the "Flip" Area. FLIP GU at 1.3100. {image} {image}
Yes, a patience problem and entering too early too much at once. There will be other setups. Be careful with UJ, not the direction, but " too early too much " part, because it affects the judgement. Plus, important is when you fully load and pre- FOMC is not the best for doing that.
But, those are details that can be repaired .
PVSRA
  • #143,439
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:43am Sep 22, 2016 8:43am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Yes, a patience problem and entering too early too much at once. There will be other setups. Be careful with UJ, not the direction, but " too early too much " part, because it affects the judgement. Plus, important is when you fully load and pre- FOMC is not the best for doing that. But, those are details that can be repaired .
It was just a matter of shorterm outlook "aggressive sell or buy" at the extreme. LOL.

Yea FOMC had absolute effect for Us, We turn to be "chicken". LOL
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #143,440
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:47am Sep 22, 2016 8:47am
Quoting chester123
{quote} I have no idea when (my guess is Q1/Q2) but Im absolutely sure (99,9%) that it will happen. I dont see any space for bremain. There is no space for that ideologically, politically or legally.
Why it is not legal as if they cannot re-vote? .... & if in any case brexit is a done deal ... then i dont think the 400 pips is the complete scene and this is why i think sisse is repeatedly saying that the short-circuit on e/u & G/u will come from europe side not from the US .....

Hope i am right .... and correct me if iam wrong
Re-Incarnated
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