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The Really Useless Thread

  • #143,401
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:01pm Sep 21, 2016 1:01pm
Quote
FED'S 7-3 DECISION SAYS IT HELD RATES STEADY "FOR THE TIME BEING," WITH 14 OF 17 POLICYMAKERS SEEING AT LEAST ONE RATE HIKE BY THE END OF THE YEAR

quote across my feed
  • #143,402
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:07pm Sep 21, 2016 1:07pm
Dollar futures just cleared the 95 handle completely- suspect dollar selloff
  • #143,403
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:08pm Sep 21, 2016 1:08pm
ride the pig forever.....

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,404
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:13pm Sep 21, 2016 1:13pm
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} I know.....I seem to get it wrong....we shall see just how wrong.....just couldn't sell at this level with real money......but, I am sidelined with real money until I see the outcome here.....
Dont be mad you didn't buy with real money this time around

Be happy you closed that last trade near perfect

Sidelining your real money is never a bad habit- forced iterations or not...self control is the number 1 killer in this community

My two cents looks like I'm going home today without a trade- didn't get low enough for me to buy, but there's lots of places to sell higher now that the expectations for December hike are in play
  • #143,405
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:21pm Sep 21, 2016 1:21pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Dont be mad you didn't buy with real money this time around Be happy you closed that last trade near perfect Sidelining your real money is never a bad habit- forced iterations or not...self control is the number 1 killer in this community My two cents looks like I'm going home today without a trade- didn't get low enough for me to buy, but there's lots of places to sell higher now that the expectations for December hike are in play

Very true. I just want to be inline with Market. I just had too many voices in my head giving good arguments for both sides. I had to go with TA NEUTRAL and we were to close to FLIP to Sell so I chose to BUY. But, FA the news could have trumped (no pun intended) the "don't sell at bottom or middle in Neutral Outlook". I don't know this to be true on letting FA be the driver over TA here; but, it seemed FA would be the driver only and could force it past the FLIP.

I don't think the FED is more HAWKISH; rather, HAWKISH for a rate hike by Dec. However, this depends on market conditions as well....have watched that play out poorly for awhile....
  • #143,406
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:24pm Sep 21, 2016 1:24pm
But I wonder how to judge what we know so far. It seems to me to be not hawkish enough as the market expected = dovish. Except for that.... what is strange they have median long term GDP 1,8? hmm, so the potentional output changed?
  • #143,407
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:24pm Sep 21, 2016 1:24pm
No hikes. Inline outlook, nothing new, FED waiting for a solid NFP... nothing so far but free money guarantee for a bit longer for Equities with good news from BOJ and FED.

Ears on the FED, eyes on the closing range so the moves can start...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,408
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:25pm Sep 21, 2016 1:25pm
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} Very true. I just want to be inline with Market. I just had too many voices in my head giving good arguments for both sides. I had to go with TA NEUTRAL and we were to close to FLIP to Sell so I chose to BUY. But, FA the news could have trumped (no pun intended) the "don't sell at bottom or middle in Neutral Outlook". I don't know this to be true on letting FA be the driver over TA here; but, it seemed FA would be the driver only and could force it past the FLIP. I don't think the FED is more HAWKISH; rather, HAWKISH for a rate hike by Dec....
Agreed, they revised down to 1.8% and said a small hike next year, one in 2018 and one in 2019? Cant quite recall and I've since closed my news feed- however; yes it does seem to me they have softened a bit for the future hikes, but still plan on one in December.
  • #143,409
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:40pm Sep 21, 2016 1:40pm
Today also nothing to see ... Going to bed ...let the bastards & CB play the snakes & ladders ... I don't want to get bitten by the snake or fall from the ladder... Tomorrow morning will see which direction to play ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,410
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:46pm Sep 21, 2016 1:46pm
i love how decisive the FED is...


now that i think it over... its not only the FED.... hope RBNZ dont continue where BoJ start it and FED left it
  • #143,411
  • Sep 21, 2016 2:00pm Sep 21, 2016 2:00pm
Eu staying close to the flip, uj hovering around a big ass monthly norm, gu stuck around 1.3 .Big day not so big. Gotta wait to see what happens I guess (like others have said)
  • #143,412
  • Sep 21, 2016 2:05pm Sep 21, 2016 2:05pm
I was enable (at work) to watch the conference. Any assessment/feedback? hawkish or dovish or nothing?
  • #143,413
  • Sep 21, 2016 2:26pm Sep 21, 2016 2:26pm
And that was it. A v.Slightly dovish outlook with a v.slightly hawkish Yellen....bastards will more than happy take that to squeeze a few more weeks till election pause....

Inline with expectations / uneventful FED....

No updates in outlooks...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,414
  • Edited 3:19pm Sep 21, 2016 2:39pm | Edited 3:19pm
Quoting sisse
...and here we go for the FED... --> On the fundamental side: RMT in play with a slight chance of hikes as early as today if Yellen is to keep his credibility intact from Jackson Expectation are for FED to hold on hikes today but pretty much guarantee hike DEC without further due,. Any flop on hikes for this year will short-circuit the market especially in the Bond and Currency board. On the other hand a hike will send a sharp knee jerk reaction that will extend until the W close with Dollar carrying the board with force. On the macro and inflation...
"any other outcome is direct continuation 1.073x with strong intermedia stop 1.083x and soft one @ 1.108x with sharp momentum on a tick below the current lows. A hike today will just add or take speed to the flow ..."

I have a question, sisse, how that can be the flow in neutral short term outlook? The lvl are way bayond my short term range and would imply short term sell on E/U to move into there. Its more like an short term leg u siggesting.

ehm, ok, 1,083x is my extreme of the ST range but 1,073x as a first target out of the range in case of a ST sell E/U. But the Q is still more or less valid.
  • #143,415
  • Sep 21, 2016 2:47pm Sep 21, 2016 2:47pm
Quoting sisse
And that was it. A v.Slightly dovish outlook with a v.slightly hawkish Yellen....bastards will more than happy take that to squeeze a few more weeks till election pause.... Inline with expectations / uneventful FED.... No updates in outlooks... sisse
No change in outlook : neutral short/mid term

Inline with expectations : same map in neutral trades from the outside to the inside

Mixed signals between dovish outlook and hawkish Yellen : one should be able to see where real money is in term of flows having in mind the general outlook pre FOMC as

no game changer is in play til next NFP !

Now what about the momentum break on 1.120x , is it valid as price did go back above it in a few sessions ?
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,416
  • Sep 21, 2016 4:56pm Sep 21, 2016 4:56pm
@chester123
​
Mid term target part of the leg mate. Short term there is nothing so see with 1.108x holding as we already completed the +/- 400 range in play ...we had potential RMT in play not a soft report...

@hoom

It will be pretty much killed if we take back the 1.12xx handle for the week.

European open will settle the deal but the timid FED pretty much kicked the can for a few weeks and the official confirmation until the first good NFP till December.... until then ride the choppy pig in Equities....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,417
  • Sep 21, 2016 11:53pm Sep 21, 2016 11:53pm
whatsoever the case this time fed played the mind game with (playing with psychology of the traders) ...

in my view it was a Ridiculous play nothing else .... those who have the capacity to hold for a long run will only win the game ... at least this time ....

but 99.99% of the retail traders are going to close the trades as it is going to last long ....

what i understood of Both RMT & Non- RMT mode .....(Correct me if i am wrong)

RMT Mode : trying to take the price at a certain level without any micro, macro nos. just to re-adjust the flow. (i.e., in simple words you can also say time trailing)
Non-RMT Mode : when the markets are actually going with the flow with all nos. in play FA or TA wise.

A simple triangle pennant is being formed in monthly ... just waiting for it to get a direction, as its a monthly chart so expecting the results accordingly....

Now if it is a RMT mode which it is right now ... i will desperately looking for it to hide or re-adjust the flow, as i dont see any major corrections in play ....

when so ever the move starts( dont know when, thats the actual drama) i extremely expect a very dramatic results...
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,418
  • Sep 22, 2016 2:32am Sep 22, 2016 2:32am
Done with today's high ... Expecting a reverse ... Let's C .... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,419
  • Edited 7:19am Sep 22, 2016 7:04am | Edited 7:19am
Hm so equities again used the CBs as an excuse for a rally.... as expected....I thought it would be more bumby but market has spoken so far..... So here are my maps on DAX.

1. this is older map from post-brexit CBs action =) summer short term buy = 1 short term leg up. Even though sisse had short term neutral. The recent leg in the making (post BOJ + FED) can be seen as an very late extension of the summer short term swing.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 43 KB


2. however, since I changed short term to neutral it may be better to see this in a neutral range perspective. I do not think BOJ and FED changed outlook to buy - they just send us to the extreme. However, definitelly was worth buying (even though expensive seats in the short term range) as every time free money for equities is in play.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 40 KB


3. and finally here is the same old map for mid term strong sell. the if we get the short term upper extreme of the range = posiible to short mid and short term!!!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 26 KB


P.S.: the thing is pretty much analogical for US500 and E/U - may post updates of pre-FED maps later.
  • #143,420
  • Sep 22, 2016 7:15am Sep 22, 2016 7:15am
Decent morning in Europe with Equities in a simple ride after the FED. In the FX board, timid FED kicked the can one more time triggering profit taking from the preemptive hawkish/hike FED as was widely expected in Dollar. Euro back to square one with a very lean calendar for the next couple of weeks so without unscheduled comments or events we are set for Equities to squeeze every last penny left of free money....

...so until then nothing to see but same, levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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