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The Really Useless Thread

  • #143,381
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:41am Sep 21, 2016 10:41am
Pharm0r you have to play. I agree with staying on the sideline here; but, you have to choose in this iteration. If you don't you stay on the SELL side. Is this what you want? Hope you make a choice as I know you know to trade and would like to see you at least pick the better of the two. GoodLuck!
  • #143,382
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:41am Sep 21, 2016 10:41am
Quoting sisse
Any more takers to the long side or its just going to be Dexter & IMARICH1? ... Table closing automatically @:45 sharp *** For those jumping in and not in the list ....sadly is too late. This leg is only open for those still alive in the last iteration of the set.... ++++++++++++++OPENING ITERATION 20C ++++++++++++++ Euro currently trading @ 1.116x "Survival of the fittest | Winners take all" -> LMT BUY 1.1160 [check] -> TP1 => 1.131x [check] | STP > 1.101x DexterMorgan IMARICH1...
I'm taking the long side.
  • #143,383
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:43am Sep 21, 2016 10:43am
As im not in the iteration so Ill post my map for FED.

Market expectations = no hike + hawkish fed (via dot plot =) signaling DEC hike)

So there are 4 scenarions:

1) inline with exp (short term outlook remains neutral)
2) no hike and more hawkish than expected = watch projections and dot plot (higher inflation/growth? lower path of interest?) (short term outlook remains neutral unless major hawkishness)
3) no hike and dovish than the expectation = watch projections and dot plot (lower inflation/growth? lower pathh of interest rates?). (short term outlook remains neutral unless major dovishness)
4) hike (even if FED was dovish after the hike, I would say market would not care so much in the shock) (short term outlook remains changes to sell)

- listed with the most expected by me on the top

Map illustrates the lvl for each play on the short term playground with no short term leg in the making. Just flows in the short term chop so far.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 36 KB


I would post some actual flows but that would be even more funny than this map so Ill keep it down for now
  • #143,384
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:43am Sep 21, 2016 10:43am
-> LMT BUY 1.1160 [check] -> TP1 => 1.131x [check] | STP > 1.101x
  • #143,385
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:44am Sep 21, 2016 10:44am
60 Seconds !!!

Quoting chester123
As im not in the iteration so Ill post my map for FED. Market expectations = no hike + hawkish fed (via dot plot =) signaling DEC hike) So there are 4 scenarions: 1) inline with exp (short term outlook remains neutral) 2) no hike and more hawkish than expected = watch projections and dot plot (higher inflation/growth? lower path of interest?) (short term outlook remains neutral unless major hawkishness) 3) no hike and dovish than the expectation = watch projections and dot plot (lower inflation/growth? lower pathh of interest rates?). (short term...

Excellent post chester ...you are kicking ass keep up the good work ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,386
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:45am Sep 21, 2016 10:45am
Thanks all ....NO MORE BIDS !!!!

++++++++++++++TABLE CLOSED 20C ++++++++++++++

Euro currently trading @ 1.116x

"Survival of the fittest | Winners take all"


-> LMT BUY 1.1160 [check] -> TP1 => 1.131x [check] | STP > 1.101x

DexterMorgan

IMARICH1

suntan

ExForX

PAStalker


or


-> LMT SELL 1.1160 [check] -> TP1 => 1.101x [check] | STP > 1.131x

primejarvis

goosebone

Fadhl

DexterMorgan

nutts

hoom

CommercialB


Vorex

RoelsMajor

Pharm0r

clayjay

Earleone

NorthTrader

ptoftangency

mayafx

Grinsakh


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,387
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:45am Sep 21, 2016 10:45am
Buy for me..no surprise hike
  • #143,388
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:46am Sep 21, 2016 10:46am
Buy pls..
Wise decisions are based on lies we living..
  • #143,389
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:46am Sep 21, 2016 10:46am
...and here we go for the FED...

--> On the fundamental side:

 

  1. RMT in play with a slight chance of hikes as early as today if Yellen is to keep his credibility intact from Jackson

    1. Expectation are for FED to hold on hikes today but pretty much guarantee hike DEC without further due,.
    2. Any flop on hikes for this year will short-circuit the market especially in the Bond and Currency board.
    3. On the other hand a hike will send a sharp knee jerk reaction that will extend until the W close with Dollar carrying the board with force.




  2. On the macro and inflation front all eyes on inflation and the latest softening of US numbers

    1. ​​FED confirming a soft outlook will put a hard stop in Equities for the rest of year and more free money wont be able to offset macro fundamentals any longer.
    2. Any positive outlook (not expected) will trigger a healthy profit taking in Equities that will carry the impact of hikes but with a pretty much confirmation that this is just a healthy pullback until election rather than a selloff in panic ...


--> On the technical side:

All macro markets in healthy levels so no dangerous play for today.

  1. Dollar holding the 95.xx handle unlocks a very sharp rally for the mid term to the highs -> 100xx and 107.xx to the other side on a flop back to key 94.4x and very slightly leaving the door open for a set 92.xx (pretty much locked for the year and today can be close).
  2. On US equities, (check back post for details) ...current lows in S&P are naked and we are pretty much set to close the highs for the year for a play 2095.xx -> 2060.xx with ext 2000.xx before elections with a stable 'hawkish' FED. A hike today we will just add pace into the move. To the other side, FED flopping and guaranteeing more free money will only trigger a soft rally to the highs but it wont be enough to take them down without better data ...
  3. GOLD will only trigger via hikes for a quick selloff to 1265.xx before finding strong foot for election and European jitters for the rest of the year .....


--> For the actual flows (euro only):

As usual in reports like this. ALL micro levels raised during the news.

Only a major flop both from hikes and outlook will short-circuit the flow and it will trigger clear all short position on the mid of the 1.12xx handle, any other outcome is direct continuation 1.073x with strong intermedia stop 1.083x and soft one @ 1.108x with sharp momentum on a tick below the current lows. A hike today will just add or take speed to the flow ...

GL all trading today, managing trades or just tracking the outcome.... As usual will wrap it out for the roll when the dust is settle ...


sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,390
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:47am Sep 21, 2016 10:47am
Quoting chester123
As im not in the iteration so Ill post my map for FED. Market expectations = no hike + hawkish fed (via dot plot =) signaling DEC hike) So there are 4 scenarions: 1) inline with exp (short term outlook remains neutral) 2) no hike and more hawkish than expected = watch projections and dot plot (higher inflation/growth? lower path of interest?) (short term outlook remains neutral unless major hawkishness) 3) no hike and dovish than the expectation = watch projections and dot plot (lower inflation/growth? lower pathh of interest rates?). (short term...
Great chart. Couldn't agree more.
  • #143,391
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:48am Sep 21, 2016 10:48am
Quoting IMARICH1
Pharm0r you have to play. I agree with staying on the sideline here; but, you have to choose in this iteration. If you don't you stay on the SELL side. Is this what you want? Hope you make a choice as I know you know to trade and would like to see you at least pick the better of the two. GoodLuck!
Already pigeonholed into the sell side, but I prefer buy here.

Good thing I'm in control of who spends my money and not sisse
  • #143,392
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:49am Sep 21, 2016 10:49am
skip for me
  • #143,393
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:50am Sep 21, 2016 10:50am
Quoting chester123
As im not in the iteration so Ill post my map for FED. Market expectations = no hike + hawkish fed (via dot plot =) signaling DEC hike) So there are 4 scenarions: 1) inline with exp (short term outlook remains neutral) 2) no hike and more hawkish than expected = watch projections and dot plot (higher inflation/growth? lower path of interest?) (short term outlook remains neutral unless major hawkishness) 3) no hike and dovish than the expectation = watch projections and dot plot (lower inflation/growth? lower pathh of interest rates?). (short term...
Very good map! Agreed!!
  • #143,394
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:51am Sep 21, 2016 10:51am
Quoting Pharm0r
Once we know the facts- we can trade the expectation for December.
take the money and run

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,395
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:54am Sep 21, 2016 10:54am
I like the chart chester123!

sisse,

Consider letting Pharm0r and maybe a couple stragglers in still....there is some time.... thanks
  • #143,396
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:55am Sep 21, 2016 10:55am
Can't deny I love this shit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: popcorn-027.jpg Size: 474 KB
  • #143,397
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:57am Sep 21, 2016 10:57am
Quoting IMARICH1
I like the chart chester123! sisse, Consider letting Pharm0r and maybe a couple stragglers in still....there is some time.... thanks
sisse seems to be on the sell side

I'm looking to buy, watch 1.1093 and 1.1076- they should tell the story, mofu does well for panic legs
  • #143,398
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:57am Sep 21, 2016 10:57am
Remarkably little volatility at the moment. A couple more minutes...
  • #143,399
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:59am Sep 21, 2016 10:59am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} sisse seems to be on the sell side I'm looking to buy, watch 1.1093 and 1.1076- they should tell the story
I know.....I seem to get it wrong....we shall see just how wrong.....just couldn't sell at this level with real money......but, I am sidelined with real money until I see the outcome here.....
  • #143,400
  • Sep 21, 2016 11:01am Sep 21, 2016 11:01am
Before end of year!
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