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The Really Useless Thread

  • #143,341
  • Sep 20, 2016 3:52pm Sep 20, 2016 3:52pm
As long as it's shoot the breeze day...anyone stop by the Eur thread lately? I do it very rarely so not sure if there's still quality market talk buried in there sometimes but mostly just amazed at how quickly it changed into a completely different animal from only a year or so ago, even less. What a scene. I suppose one mans trash is another mans treasure. Guess I need to stop looking at it but it's like a trainwreck that way. Anyway glad Useless and The Swamp are still kicking even if some days are colder than others.

A 5 EST close under 1150 would let me sleep better on EU shorts til Tokyo shakes things up. Under 1148 even better. FED I'm thinking no hike but hawk talk will be bearish eu. And only if doves fly should we see a strong move to the top of the range. A couple small bets bullish vix for tomorrow on my backburner.

Edit: My broker closed 1.11496. I'll take it.
  • #143,342
  • Sep 20, 2016 4:15pm Sep 20, 2016 4:15pm
...and we rolled... extremely bearish close in Euro, very bearish in Sterling, bearish in AUD and commodity pairs with Dollar, and in a cluster fck in YEN.

Tighten your seatbelt as we have major movers and shakers overnight and after with the the FED. Here a full house across the FX and commodity board and pretty much flat across the rest until the BOJ/FED combo....

Good luck all trading overnight, premium and last tickets still avaialble across the board for today's roll for those still looking for positions ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,343
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:34am Sep 21, 2016 1:34am
Maybe a wrong move. But I closed my Short in iteration at .1127. Have FED move which may be no rate hike and may cause another short leg up so i am waiting to position again. Made profit from.122x to .112x
  • #143,344
  • Edited 3:59am Sep 21, 2016 3:11am | Edited 3:59am
A rather technical BOJ in probably one of the best announcements from Japan in a few years moving away from the dogmatic QE to a more sound and technical approach based on yields and maturities.

The BOJ announcement will have a long tail and impact ones we clear the FED. Positive news from Equitiesless so for the YEN. BOJ moving one step further away from helicopter money and blind monetary policy which is a healthy announcement given the current circumstances....

European opening completed, with European Equities riding much need positive news from Japan. Expecting the same reaction for NY open before we enter in no man land for the FED.

Quoting sisse
... --> On the flows (euro)...

I leave it blank until the iterations are finished but simple sharp and direct ride 1.130x[check] -> 1.112x [check] to sit there for the FED Sep [super check] before killing all bulls for the year at xxxx
On the FX, front, right on time and as widely expected Euro clearing 1.112x before the FED and we are ready for this evening.

-------------------- --------------------


On the iteration front:

Very well done: hoom, Vorex and RoelsMajor for clearing 1.112x...2 out of 2 ....next round coming later today for the FED ...

Quoting sisse
+++++Iteration 20B +++++ Euro currently trading @ 1.121x "Survival of the fittest | Winners take all" ...

------- ---------

+++++Iteration 20B +++++

Euro currently trading @ 1.121x

"Survival of the fittest | Winners take all"


B. ECB took care of the rest as expected. There is only one way down down down-> LMT SELL 1.120x [check]-> TP1 => 1.112x [check] | STP > 1.130x

hoom

Vorex

RoelsMajor


--> For those shorts from above, well done too. Very important lessons to be taken: 1) Patience always pay. 2) Surprise why 1.132x [barely] held?. here is no need for praying or wide stops or hope mode. Sitting tight on properly defined stops defined with proper R:R is the ONLY way to go ...

Sure it was a heat in the trade but the iteration wasn't about timing, neither entries but was about to train mentally to make decision fast with what you had in front of you to define maps, trades and decisions quick and efficiently ...

In any case, although most chickened out in their live trades around, for the purpose of the iteration well done all...next round coming for the FED.

Quoting sisse
+++++Iteration 20 +++++ Euro currently trading @ 1.130x "Survival of the fittest | Winners take all" update 2 (12 hours 6 days) -> LMT BUY 1.118x ​[check] -> TP

+++++Iteration 20 +++++

Euro currently trading @ 1.130x

"Survival of the fittest | Winners take all"


-> LMT SELL 1.122x [check] -> TP1 => 1.112x [check] | STP > 1.132x with inline

Pharm0r

suntan

ExForX

goosebone

clayjay

Earleone

nutts

CommercialB

NorthTrader

ptoftangency

Fadhl

DexterMorgan

PAStalker

primejarvis

mayafx

Grinsakh

IMARICH1


Finally for those still in the mid term swing in very healthy shorts from above from iteration 19 not much to do but wait for the FED to roll the dice. Pay day or a rather dull trade will be defined in the next couple of sessions .... updates, comments, pending conversations and etc later....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,345
  • Sep 21, 2016 5:08am Sep 21, 2016 5:08am
Here is USDCAD at the extreme Top. In the Extreme, We trade to the inside, but considering Fed supprise possibility, closed all my trades and will see later after 01.00 Midnight here in My Country.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily.png Size: 39 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #143,346
  • Sep 21, 2016 6:40am Sep 21, 2016 6:40am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Here is USDCAD at the extreme Top. In the Extreme, We trade to the inside, but considering Fed supprise possibility, closed all my trades and will see later after 01.00 Midnight here in My Country. {image}
Good choice, did the same.
Don't want gambler's agony, it's time to sit back and have a rest.
Will be back on track, when the waves destroys the majority.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #143,347
  • Sep 21, 2016 7:38am Sep 21, 2016 7:38am
I traded the 20 iteration live with my acct and was able to recoup some of my loss profit on the trades I had to close due to leverage. I closed it ONLY because:

1. We were in OUTLOOK NEUTRAL SHORT and MID TERM
2. We were at the FLIP .113X and strong support
3. Not looking for a HIKE --YET-but, I am looking for even more HAWKISH language from the FED for the DOLLAR which could propel the EU south.

Waiting for OUTLOOK to change to SELL before I would have let trade run longer.

WE trade EXPECTATIONS and not the FACT. I believe expectations are for a HIKE to be soon but not yet. Therefore, Markets are starting to their aligning for it. This is not to say another short leg up isn't possible in my opinion in Equities but short lived IMO.

Should I have left a third of my trade run? Possibly, but trying to set some ground rules when we are in Neutral to keep profits and know my EXIT strategy. Right or Wrong on exiting, I followed my EXIT plan and executed it. Big step for me as I almost talked myself out since sisse indicated we had a BEARISH close. We have had several BEARISH closes and I would watch my profit all disappear because I held for too long.

sisse,

I did do my homework last week on S and R when you called BS and haven't see you reply to my chart. Hopefully, you will respond and teach me something when you get another opportunity.
  • #143,348
  • Sep 21, 2016 7:40am Sep 21, 2016 7:40am
congrats rich1
  • #143,349
  • Sep 21, 2016 7:47am Sep 21, 2016 7:47am
Quoting Pharm0r
congrats rich1
Thanks. I saw how you went flat too waiting for this to play out last week which I felt was a good plan. I see this FLIP area in EU as being respected and will see how Market responds to FED. I see the possibility of a WHIP-SAW on the FACT there is no Hike; but, language indicating a HIKE is around the corner Pre-Election or Post-Election which is STILL all EXPECTATION and doesn't mean the FED will.

In NEUTRAL I could have bought at the EXTREME to trade to middle or target; however, this is a MAJOR Mover and SHAKER from FED and didn't feel worth the risk due to knee jerk reactions that could go both ways until Market decides direction.

Just throwing my thoughts out here to show my ignorance or my intellect.

All the best and goodluck today if you are going to trade it!
  • #143,350
  • Sep 21, 2016 7:57am Sep 21, 2016 7:57am
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} Thanks. I saw how you went flat too waiting for this to play out last week which I felt was a good plan. I see this FLIP area in EU as being respected and will see how Market responds to FED. I see the possibility of a WHIP-SAW on the FACT there is no Hike; but, language indicating a HIKE is around the corner Pre-Election or Post-Election which is STILL all EXPECTATION and doesn't mean the FED will. In NEUTRAL I could have bought at the EXTREME to trade to middle or target; however, this is a MAJOR Mover and SHAKER from FED and didn't...
Absolutely agree. Taking either side of the coin now is too risky- I believe Fisher is of the same opinion.

We plan to wait for the shake out then position accordingly. The only thing that will make me take a snap trade would be a surprise rate hike.
  • #143,351
  • Sep 21, 2016 8:00am Sep 21, 2016 8:00am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Absolutely agree. Taking either side of the coin now is too risky- I believe Fisher is of the same opinion. We plan to wait for the shake out then position accordingly. The only thing that will make me take a snap trade would be a surprise rate hike.
AGREED!
  • #143,352
  • Sep 21, 2016 8:23am Sep 21, 2016 8:23am
Eyes on the open for a very short session. Itchy yen on the move. A double whammy will trigger a WTF moment in UJ....

Glad to see proper market/trading talk in the thread....we'll open the FED and iteration chat with Europe going home....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,353
  • Sep 21, 2016 8:38am Sep 21, 2016 8:38am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Absolutely agree. Taking either side of the coin now is too risky- I believe Fisher is of the same opinion. We plan to wait for the shake out then position accordingly. The only thing that will make me take a snap trade would be a surprise rate hike.
Yes, the same EU because middle of the range so no trade for me here, but playing risky UJ longs for the third time already today (banked some after the first news in AS) because it is at the short term bottom and will decide if fold and switch or hold after Daily close. If no break, no fold of course.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYiDaily 21.9..png Size: 36 KB


Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} Thanks. I saw how you went flat too waiting for this to play out last week which I felt was a good plan. I see this FLIP area in EU as being respected and will see how Market responds to FED. I see the possibility of a WHIP-SAW on the FACT there is no Hike; but, language indicating a HIKE is around the corner Pre-Election or Post-Election which is STILL all EXPECTATION and doesn't mean the FED will. In NEUTRAL I could have bought at the EXTREME to trade to middle or target; however, this is a MAJOR Mover and SHAKER from FED and didn't feel...
Sounds like a firm and excellent plan. Great discipline this time too.
Congarts.
PVSRA
  • #143,354
  • Sep 21, 2016 8:48am Sep 21, 2016 8:48am
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} Thanks. I saw how you went flat too waiting for this to play out last week which I felt was a good plan. I see this FLIP area in EU as being respected and will see how Market responds to FED. I see the possibility of a WHIP-SAW on the FACT there is no Hike; but, language indicating a HIKE is around the corner Pre-Election or Post-Election which is STILL all EXPECTATION and doesn't mean the FED will. In NEUTRAL I could have bought at the EXTREME to trade to middle or target; however, this is a MAJOR Mover and SHAKER from FED and didn't feel...
I do think that the market might be surprised today by the FED. A "symbolic" rate hike will confirm the rhetoric started by Draghi and it is not an outlandish idea, although the market gives only 14% prob.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #143,355
  • Sep 21, 2016 8:48am Sep 21, 2016 8:48am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiDaily 21.9..png Size: 86 KB

What I find also interesting EU is Day chart H&S, with TP coincidenting with Range low...but still not jumping before the FED, because if so and as you mentioned if raise, there will be opportunities after the fact.
PVSRA
  • #143,356
  • Sep 21, 2016 8:53am Sep 21, 2016 8:53am
Quoting Fisher755
{image} What I find also interesting EU is Day chart H&S, with TP coincidenting with Range low...but still not jumping before the FED, because if so and as you mentioned if raise, there will be opportunities after the fact.
Nice chart, didn't see that one...
  • #143,357
  • Sep 21, 2016 8:55am Sep 21, 2016 8:55am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Nice chart, didn't see that one...
PVSRA
  • #143,358
  • Sep 21, 2016 10:12am Sep 21, 2016 10:12am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Yes, the same EU because middle of the range so no trade for me here, but playing risky UJ longs for the third time already today (banked some after the first news in AS) because it is at the short term bottom and will decide if fold and switch or hold after Daily close. If no break, no fold of course. {image} {quote} Sounds like a firm and excellent plan. Great discipline this time too. Congarts.
Thanks Fisher755! All the Best to you as well in your trading! I see what you are seeing in your chart.

I am not sure what sisse's level is for putting an end for a while to the BULLS; but, for me, it would .073X. or .0500. WHy? Because .097X which was the level I started this whole thing with and asking sisse many, many questions did not stop the Bulls. It backfired on me. Therefore, I believe .073X or .0500 will be the rainmaker for the BULLS MID and LONG TERM. I might be wrong but that seems more convincing for me.

.108X didn't seal the deal , .097X didn't and .082X didn't as well. I might be way off but wanted to see others thoughts on this as well.....
  • #143,359
  • Sep 21, 2016 11:23am Sep 21, 2016 11:23am
My view on the upcoming FOMC: No hike, but hawkish conference supported by strong economic data (in comparison to the rest of the world). This view could be translated by a "zigzag" movement in the market. GL!
  • #143,360
  • Sep 21, 2016 11:41am Sep 21, 2016 11:41am
Quoting sisse
{quote} +++++Iteration 20 +++++ Euro currently trading @ 1.130x "Survival of the fittest | Winners take all" ...
...and that was it for the European session ...as we manage to clear last target right on time for the FED only for those still alive in the iteration: hoom ,Vorex, RoelsMajor, Pharm0r, suntan, ExForX, goosebone, clayjay, Earleone, nutts, CommercialB, NorthTrader, ptoftangency, Fadhl, DexterMorgan, PAStalker,, primejarvis, mayafx, Grinsakh IMARICH1

No excuses here this is not about timing or r:r but about training to make fast decisions in a live environment ...all must play until the last trader is stopped out so choose your poison ASAP for the FED. If you don't choose its assume you stay put on the sell side ...

GL all...

++++++++++++++OPENING ITERATION 20C ++++++++++++++

Euro currently trading @ 1.116x

"Survival of the fittest | Winners take all"


-> LMT BUY 1.1160 [check] -> TP1 => 1.131x [check] | STP > 1.101x


or


-> LMT SELL 1.1160 [check] -> TP1 => 1.101x [check] | STP > 1.131x


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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