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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #21,621
  • Sep 20, 2016 12:41am Sep 20, 2016 12:41am
Market's bias is still short, however it might change if JPY easing program works to convince the market to sell JPY tomorrow. If the program failed, expect a break below 129.10, otherwise it might soar up above 138.80.
  • #21,622
  • Sep 20, 2016 2:27am Sep 20, 2016 2:27am
Quoting goldgirl
{quote} You may scalp down GJ while holding long position.
yes, I'm using hedging
I need the magic ball
  • #21,623
  • Edited 2:52am Sep 20, 2016 2:34am | Edited 2:52am
Quoting goldgirl
{quote} Due to possible downsize of Japan easing program, yen is up. Hence GJ is down. Due to US rate hike, GU is down. Hence, also drag down GBP. Short term, GJ is down. However, there will be some fundamental change to market that will make GJ up. I am not sure what but technical chart tell that this pair will be up in long run.
There was a person on this forum who fervently believed in the fundamental side of things. He remained long from 187, but even after hedging attempts, had to close at 165. He lost close to US$1 Million. At 166 this could have been a correction (I called for 168 when at 187).At 154 this could have been a correction.

Honestly, when does this stop being a correction? In the case of Pound Sterling, you just don't fall out of a 24~25 year sideways move and still call it a correction. When Pound Yen fell out of 154 and undid a 25 years of sideways move from the initial fall from 570, retesting a 284 month old res area at 141 recently, it becomes somewhat unlikely to be a simple correction. Willing to be proven very wrong, but my humble take is we are very very fortunate in witnessing what could well be a very final downside move that began at 570 and was curtailed for 25 yrs following the sideways move that started in 1992.
  • #21,624
  • Sep 20, 2016 2:40am Sep 20, 2016 2:40am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} There was a person on this forum who fervently believed in the fundamental side of things. He remained long from 187, but even after hedging attempts, had to close at 165. He lost close to US$1 Million.
Sorry but I don't have that kind of money lol
I need the magic ball
  • #21,625
  • Sep 20, 2016 2:40am Sep 20, 2016 2:40am
I never quite understood why traders who only do technical analysis do not think that fundamental analysis is also a type of analysis.
  • #21,626
  • Sep 20, 2016 3:08am Sep 20, 2016 3:08am
Quoting MrsTrader
I never quite understood why traders who only do technical analysis do not think that fundamental analysis is also a type of analysis.
Your toolbox should be completely overflowing and every possibility should be open. Then there are folks who'll turn up here and say "tech only/fundamental only/never use fibs/never learn waves/never use TLs", etc etc.

However, only by analysing moves (in this case) over several decades can you see what's happening. PRE Brexit, that long analysis allowed a prediction of initial GBPUSD fall into 1.33 It overshot, but the monthly candle body closed at .... 1.33. There's more to come. Those numbers are posted somewhere on an earlier entry to the forum.
  • #21,627
  • Sep 20, 2016 7:30am Sep 20, 2016 7:30am
sell daily / hourly / 4 h - highs
TP 130.8
  • #21,628
  • Sep 20, 2016 7:33am Sep 20, 2016 7:33am
Waiting for 132.0 break.
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  • #21,629
  • Sep 20, 2016 7:53am Sep 20, 2016 7:53am
more to come.

1 account,
got 4 more
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  • #21,630
  • Sep 20, 2016 8:41am Sep 20, 2016 8:41am
That moment when you realized you got out from trade too fast... I should've utilized SL instead of getting out. Oh, well. Lesson learned. Hopefully I won't do the same mistake again. Looking for entry opportunity around 129.10.
  • #21,631
  • Sep 20, 2016 8:42am Sep 20, 2016 8:42am
This pair is very oversold. When BOJ news hits this should sky rocket towards 136 or even higher
  • #21,632
  • Sep 20, 2016 8:44am Sep 20, 2016 8:44am
Quoting JJSerrault
That moment when you realized you got out from trade too fast... I should've utilized SL instead of getting out.
even better SL +TS with no tpt and let it run

GU is heading to 128.65 so GJ will continue down still for now. DXY is trending up and I expect to see 100.0

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DX...BACK-TO-100-0/
  • #21,633
  • Sep 20, 2016 9:13am Sep 20, 2016 9:13am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} There was a person on this forum who fervently believed in the fundamental side of things. He remained long from 187, but even after hedging attempts, had to close at 165. He lost close to US$1 Million. At 166 this could have been a correction (I called for 168 when at 187).At 154 this could have been a correction. Honestly, when does this stop being a correction? In the case of Pound Sterling, you just don't fall out of a 24~25 year sideways move and still call it a correction. When Pound Yen fell out of 154 and undid a 25 years of sideways...
I am very much believed that GBPJPY had already found floor at the level of 1.2760 for the current year fall. I trade according to the current trend base on D1 chart. It could be 3 days or 7 days trade period depending on how soon the TP hit.
  • #21,634
  • Sep 20, 2016 9:14am Sep 20, 2016 9:14am
Quoting MrsTrader
I never quite understood why traders who only do technical analysis do not think that fundamental analysis is also a type of analysis.
Fundamental is a form of analysis for long term. Probably need to observe on monthly chart instead of D1 or H4 chart.
  • #21,635
  • Sep 20, 2016 9:53am Sep 20, 2016 9:53am
Long GBPJPY now to 137
  • #21,636
  • Sep 20, 2016 9:53am Sep 20, 2016 9:53am
Quoting goldgirl
{quote} I am very much believed that GBPJPY had already found floor at the level of 1.2760 for the current year fall. I trade according to the current trend base on D1 chart. It could be 3 days or 7 days trade period depending on how soon the TP hit.
I think you are wrong,
this is no price floor because there is no support present
(for GU and GJ / UJ may push GJ a bit before news)

let the pips coming.

TP: 130.8

my "price floor": 131.2
I'll set SL there when we are there...
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  • #21,637
  • Edited 10:27am Sep 20, 2016 10:13am | Edited 10:27am
that 127.xx is the floor till we get to within 200 pips of it......a secret historical separation for an upmove....it's historical, he.....he , not a secret

also, if we don't go on upward from 129 64......the macro.....global fundamental basics will herald the end of the world as we know it.......I have a trading system for that scenario...the TEOTWAWKI system

Robert fripp of king crimson was going to write the music for the end of the world back in 94, ha....right now crank ya up some all female rockers, Zepparrella....." when the levee breaks "
  • #21,638
  • Sep 20, 2016 3:30pm Sep 20, 2016 3:30pm
Quoting MrsTrader
I never quite understood why traders who only do technical analysis do not think that fundamental analysis is also a type of analysis.
Most people think tech is stronger than Fundamental. It is clear to see with how price action works.
iLuv JPY pairs
  • #21,639
  • Sep 20, 2016 4:20pm Sep 20, 2016 4:20pm
we have BoJ and fomc today so the market dynamic can change - sidelines for now.
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  • #21,640
  • Sep 20, 2016 4:28pm Sep 20, 2016 4:28pm
What's happens to GJ at the opening of the Autralian market. Why so much volatility?
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