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  • #143,301
  • Edited 5:33am Sep 19, 2016 4:39am | Edited 5:33am
Unsure how it will play out..was hoping sisse or anyone else would comment on below to clear up a couple of things..
Quoting PAStalker
{quote} Hi s


TA wise..possibly stay in a range from 1.118x & 1.113x till wednesday..even though the open has been retested to the long side, which seems bullish.
  • #143,302
  • Sep 19, 2016 4:54am Sep 19, 2016 4:54am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Squeeze is on. AB=CD is finished, but still aiming its 127% extension.
EurCad - done.
Eyeing with SP500...imho decline is in sight.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #143,303
  • Sep 19, 2016 6:22am Sep 19, 2016 6:22am
Quoting Pharm0r
So lets talk about this week, it would seem that although expectations are against a FOMC rate hike in three days, the actual flows of EU suggests trading expectations are for a rate hike. So- if we get no rate hike, what do you guys think the market will do? Personally, I think we will see another leg in equities- and EU will flip to a short term soft buy as many will be taking profits and looking to sell higher in anticipation of the possible rate hike in December. Still mid term neutral, so we should plan to trade the extreme buy-side into the...
I feel like no hike has been gradually priced in since brexit lows. So I imagine no hikes Wed means maybe wider but chop til Dec.
And if they do hike on Wed., well maybe we start dropping hard with an eventual test of 096x and the bottom of the range below if that's breached. In the case of a hike (looks less likely these days) the very interesting action might be in us equities/bonds as that just maybe could be enough to knock this bull off his feet at least for a while. And beyond that could start a sort of chain reaction with repercussions in other markets here and around the globe.
  • #143,304
  • Sep 19, 2016 7:23am Sep 19, 2016 7:23am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I feel like no hike has been gradually priced in since brexit lows. So I imagine no hikes Wed means maybe wider but chop til Dec. And if they do hike on Wed., well maybe we start dropping hard with an eventual test of 096x and the bottom of the range below if that's breached. In the case of a hike (looks less likely these days) the very interesting action might be in us equities/bonds as that just maybe could be enough to knock this bull off his feet at least for a while. And beyond that could start a sort of chain reaction with repercussions...
Agreed with chop

I would like to see a hike this week to be honest, if nothing else to bring equities back down to a reasonable level to buy
  • #143,305
  • Sep 19, 2016 8:13am Sep 19, 2016 8:13am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Agreed with chop I would like to see a hike this week to be honest, if nothing else to bring equities back down to a reasonable level to buy
Me too. Been @ 95% cash in the equities accounts since July/August. That cash is now waiting to pounce on a decent correction. Or on me to give up waiting for it. Given myself from now til end of q1 to make a call either way.
  • #143,306
  • Edited 10:01am Sep 19, 2016 9:37am | Edited 10:01am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Me too. Been @ 95% cash in the equities accounts since July/August. That cash is now waiting to pounce on a decent correction. Or on me to give up waiting for it. Given myself from now til end of q1 to make a call either way.
fixing to sell this support turned resistance on EU

Maybe not....1.1198 limit and so far it only hit 1.11978

bastards.
  • #143,307
  • Sep 19, 2016 10:01am Sep 19, 2016 10:01am
Thats all for today .... nothing to see simple scalping between today's range ....

Hi pharm0r h r u....
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,308
  • Sep 19, 2016 10:04am Sep 19, 2016 10:04am
Good, leaving now- nothing for me after missing that trade. See you guys later

Plan for weds is to long EU between 1.1112 and 1.1080 if no hikes and dovish fed
  • #143,309
  • Sep 19, 2016 10:10am Sep 19, 2016 10:10am
Quoting Pharm0r
Good, leaving now- nothing for me after missing that trade. See you guys later Plan for weds is to long EU between 1.1112 and 1.1080 if no hikes and dovish fed
I like that plan. I will be trying to hold my eu short til Wed and see how it plays out.
  • #143,310
  • Sep 19, 2016 10:15am Sep 19, 2016 10:15am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} fixing to sell this support turned resistance on EU Maybe not....1.1198 limit and so far it only hit 1.11978 bastards.
Is a fib at 1.1193 ( Low June / high August. ) I got filled a little bit there . Looking for more and think you will get your fill.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,311
  • Edited Sep 20, 2016 9:01am Sep 19, 2016 12:44pm | Edited Sep 20, 2016 9:01am
Quoting hathor
{quote} EurCad - done. Eyeing with SP500...imho decline is in sight.
SP500 - decline is under process..."it's time to wait".
Daily high - second 'short zone'
Trade added to the previous order.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #143,312
  • Sep 19, 2016 2:31pm Sep 19, 2016 2:31pm
Quoting Pharm0r
So lets talk about this week, it would seem that although expectations are against a FOMC rate hike in three days, the actual flows of EU suggests trading expectations are for a rate hike. So- if we get no rate hike, what do you guys think the market will do? Personally, I think we will see another leg in equities- and EU will flip to a short term soft buy as many will be taking profits and looking to sell higher in anticipation of the possible rate hike in December. Still mid term neutral, so we should plan to trade the extreme buy-side into the...
I think markets expectations for the FOMC are : No hike in Sept And hike remaining on the table for Dec. I think markets are waiting for a confirmation of a hawkish/very hawkish FED for the end of the year to lose 1.116x and visit 1.097x. Unexpected hike and I think we could see the yearly lows 1.07xx.
I am not expecting at all a dovish FED ; can't imagine they won't continue the "dirty" job Draghi has started on free/nearly free money
  • #143,313
  • Sep 19, 2016 3:04pm Sep 19, 2016 3:04pm
Quoting Pharm0r
So- if we get no rate hike, what do you guys think the market will do? Personally, I think we will see another leg in equities-
it's a BOJ/FOMC double ended dingdong. Can get ya coming or going. But if the BOJ holds off and then the Fed surprises, we could see equities crap pants big time.....versa vicea the other way.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,314
  • Edited 7:43am Sep 20, 2016 5:28am | Edited 7:43am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}it's a BOJ/FOMC double ended dingdong. Can get ya coming or going. But if the BOJ holds off and then the Fed surprises, we could see equities crap pants big time.....versa vicea the other way.
its definitely gonna be interesting. there is nice space for one more very short term leg/flow up if BOJ and FED allow.

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on short term here is my map. markets are looking to set for preFED sleeping time around the flip to wait for the FED. depending on the outcome the map looks clear.

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on mid term - Im not so sure. however, it getting clear that US elections have the primary position over other stuff as EU/brexit game comes later. so where we sit for election jitters depends basically on the CBs how they solve the short term neutral range posted above. we will either sit on the top or by the mid term flip when we enter the election spasm.


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P.S.: watch out for G/U right now flirting to make the extension as I bet it can be very quick and violent. Too bad I did not jump in after BOE.
  • #143,315
  • Sep 20, 2016 7:14am Sep 20, 2016 7:14am
-> That was it for the European session with Equities struggling to break higher and in desperate need of free money but macro fundamentals are starting to weight heavier and heavier over loose monetary policy. Global equities aligning for a farewell short-lived shallow rally on the BOJ/FED combo and only a major double whammy (possible but the least likely scenario) will open the floor with major hands clearing for the year.

--> On the FX board, Yen in full control as soon as Europe goes home for the BOJ before entering in the main dish for the Quarter with FED hikes in play where Dollar will rule the board.

Not much expected except continuation with the double CB combo so same levels same trades, same all ....

sisse

Quoting The Fool
{quote}it's a BOJ/FOMC double ended dingdong. Can get ya coming or going. But if the BOJ holds off and then the Fed surprises, we could see equities crap pants big time.....versa vicea the other way.
-->Definitively a double whammy will unlock the current lows on bastards running to the exit for the year...

Quoting chester123
{quote} its definitely gonna be interesting. there is nice space for one more very short term leg/flow up if BOJ and FED allow. .
--> Maps are clear in US equities for this week. There are some choppy crumbs to the highs (both European and US) on a no hikes Sep and/or aggressive BOJ but in general the current lows in S&P are naked and we are pretty much set to close the highs for the year for a play 2095.xx -> 2060.xx with ext 2000.xx before elections.

--> On your mid term chart, the levels to the down side are lock for now in my books and it will imply a major meltdown for 2017 which is sadly on the cards via Europe (Brexit) and even more scary for the global economy with the nutcase winning election flirting to put global markets and free trade back to the 20th century before the wars ....

Locked for now, from the 2 risk triggers, one triggered already (waiting for the outcome) and the other in play for November ....one of these combos that will be epic for trading but terrible for the world economy, peace and prosperity for the rest of the mortals ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,316
  • Sep 20, 2016 7:28am Sep 20, 2016 7:28am
Well if it's the end of the world it's been nice trading ideas with you guys (and gals)
  • #143,317
  • Edited 8:33am Sep 20, 2016 7:56am | Edited 8:33am
Quoting sisse
-> That was it for the European session with Equities struggling to break higher and in desperate need of free money but macro fundamentals are starting to weight heavier and heavier over loose monetary policy. Global equities aligning for a farewell short-lived shallow rally on the BOJ/FED combo and only a major double whammy (possible but the least likely scenario) will open the floor with major hands clearing for the year. --> On the FX board, Yen in full control as soon as Europe goes home for the BOJ before entering in the main dish for the...
nice I have the short term lvls almost the same. I again updated the short term CB chart in previous post. hopefully It will match your pre FED post. Its more like an exercise for me.

In mid term I have a question. We changed mid/long term to sell in US equities, right? And if yes =) I would expect we have a map which has some targets beyond the extreme of neutral mid/long term range. But you also say the lvls are locked. So does it mean that we have some lvls in our outlook and they get locked/unlocked as the macro/political/monetary factors proceed? I.e. we have a mid term projection/outlook on US500 with targets locked for FA reasons as the FA events have not yet materialized? But the mid term projection/outlook is based on FA so its kind of confusing for me

== when Im looking on the mid term map I posted - the lvls may be too stretched for mid term swing so maybe thats why you say they locked and you have higher mid term lvls for the mid term swing. that would explain the situation.

P.S.: maybe second question. What can be the election jitters impact on USD? I have no idea as I have never traded US elections and I bet no-one trader the elections with candidates like this. And even more problematic =) if C. wins = USD neutral - politicaly we remain in status quo? if T. wins USD positive on risk-off but in longer term negative via uncertainty/macro implications of his policy/leaving FED in unknown waters implies break in hike cycle?
  • #143,318
  • Sep 20, 2016 8:01am Sep 20, 2016 8:01am
Looking to bid an extreme to middle trade for GU tomorrow provided the FED wiffs...
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  • #143,319
  • Sep 20, 2016 8:56am Sep 20, 2016 8:56am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Cad new: negative Technically: good buying level/position Idealistic version: what a positive mix for EurCad, lets go higher Crude version: very good situation for the filthy market makers Well...lets see what kind of World we live in...
Quoting hathor
{quote} Squeeze is on. AB=CD is finished, but still aiming its 127% extension.
Look like retesting of previous down move has been finished, lets see, if it can make new low.
In case of returning to daily top, I'm out (Stops are at entry).
f(z)=z2+c
  • #143,320
  • Sep 20, 2016 9:01am Sep 20, 2016 9:01am
Quoting hathor
{quote} SP500 - decline is under process..."it's time to wait". Daily high - second 'short zone' Trade added to the previous order.
Trade signals supports selling, but it's not an easy dive.
Started to be cautious, I'll keep an eye in that bastard.
f(z)=z2+c
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