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  • #143,241
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:48pm Sep 15, 2016 3:48pm
Quoting sisse
We have a pending topic open on momentum so: {quote} 1. What makes you think the Euro map has changed since the summer ??? 2. If it hasn't where are the momentum areas/lines? 3. If we change to long or short outlook short term? where would be the flip? and the momentum areas? sisse
Ok. Here's what made me think something had changed since summer: 1) Getting too close and losing sight of road we are actually on 2)(over) thinking for a bit that recent news was/is more important for direction than it really was/is.

Since it hasn't changed the second chart in my post with flip around 1157 is better. If we changed to long perhaps the first one around 1203 would work but I am not sure about it. Starting to see that the difference between the two flips I put up is pretty minimal in the first place so kind of semantic really.

Momentum in neutral is a line I still don't know how to place. I imagine it might be a bounce off the top or bottom of the range in play towards the middle as someone suggested to me last week but I'm not real comfortable with the idea.

If I was taking your bet I'd say c neither because of out look neutral. I'll get down to western union now so I can wire that thousand to you.
  • #143,242
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:49pm Sep 15, 2016 3:49pm
Quoting Pharm0r
I don't like a game where the rules aren't defined and the winner is chosen based on opinion of the game maker
A perfect definition of the market
  • #143,243
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:49pm Sep 15, 2016 3:49pm
Since we didn't shake hands in the bet or sign any legal documentation, I think Earleone aka Earlobe is right. According to my chart I posted and sisse defining momentum again, I believe .1200 and especially .1135 could be a momentum leg ONLY IF this can happen at any time.

Meaning it it could break .1200 tomorrow but got go to .1180 then to .1350 in a couple of days and then break .1200 again to be Momentum leg.

I'll try to post a chart soon if I can get a break. It's easier to show visually what I see as R and S.
  • #143,244
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:50pm Sep 15, 2016 3:50pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Also we need to define the trigger.....a surprise hike in September would cause a momentum leg regardless.
But not without a break of important(daily) SR.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiWeekly.png Size: 40 KB
PVSRA
  • #143,245
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:53pm Sep 15, 2016 3:53pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} A perfect definition of the market
I never claimed to like the market either.
  • #143,246
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:54pm Sep 15, 2016 3:54pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Ok ��. At least I Can give you that! Lol But, I can't post chart right now as I am out doing field checks on wanted individuals. Hope none of you here are wanted lol you want me to do it on nzd/usd
Choose any... NZD/usd sounds good because its random and you prolly don't have any bias...

Quoting Earleone
B. Momentum Short with 1.120x taken In my view momentum is to the downside. The down legs has stronger momentum then the up legs since the end of April. We have 2 sharp down legs and 5 smaller up legs. Rate hike in September is unlikely IMO. And we can see 1.1425 area before we see 1.0850 area. But momentum to upside will be weak and is limited compared to the downside where I think we can get a knee jerk move with strong momentum. {image}
Ok. A sound analysis....

Would you say TA wise that we have the High of the month set? or to make it a bit easier would you say 1.174x is locked for this year since even in a flop of the last scheduled (obviously ) momentum play (hikes) we wont reach much further beyond 1.14xx ?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,247
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:56pm Sep 15, 2016 3:56pm
I'd say you're a fool to say either.

Quoting Pharm0r
surprising but still in line quarter over quarter, plus revisions have consistently been positive Above all, outlook is better for US as compared to EU. Suspect EU will return to Earth sooner than not. 1.17xx still locked on my charts for the year
idiot.
  • #143,248
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:58pm Sep 15, 2016 3:58pm
Quoting Pharm0r
I'd say you're a fool to say either.
Absolutly. Anything can happen and even sisse might change short term Outlook.
So this means that Momentum might be there- 1.14 where nobody expects PA will cross and continue up. That would sure trigguer a lot of stops and PA would be gaining momentum. So never say never...
PVSRA
  • #143,249
  • Sep 15, 2016 4:01pm Sep 15, 2016 4:01pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Choose any... NZD/usd sounds good because its random and you prolly don't have any bias... {quote} Ok. A sound analysis.... Would you say TA wise that we have the High of the month set? or to make it a bit easier would you say 1.174x is locked for this year since even in a flop of the last scheduled (obviously ) momentum play (hikes) we wont reach much further beyond 1.14xx ? sisse
Yes, It is my view now. If it goes the other way I am wrong, and I will loose some money in my trading
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,250
  • Sep 15, 2016 4:01pm Sep 15, 2016 4:01pm
Quoting goosebone
I have thought it to be the place on the map or in flow where two things happen. Those holding on the wrong side give up and cover, and those waiting for confirmation of this direction enter, forming one or more large body candles with very minimal retrace.
Close or way off?
  • #143,251
  • Sep 15, 2016 4:03pm Sep 15, 2016 4:03pm
I would try at a chart but Imarich1 is rapping at my front door and I gotta get out the back.
  • #143,252
  • Sep 15, 2016 4:05pm Sep 15, 2016 4:05pm
... and we rolled. Euro for the 6 consecutive day sitting in imminent break down alerts ...but like always no break, no shake, no nothing and Dollar wont go anywhere else until further data for the FED sep...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,253
  • Sep 15, 2016 4:05pm Sep 15, 2016 4:05pm
Quoting Pharm0r
I'd say you're a fool to say either. {quote} idiot.
Your not an idiot log this one 122 with 5678 gu regards E
  • #143,254
  • Edited 4:21pm Sep 15, 2016 4:11pm | Edited 4:21pm
Quoting sisse
... and we rolled. Euro for the 6 consecutive day sitting in imminent break down alerts ...but like always no break, no shake, no nothing and Dollar wont go anywhere else until further data for the FED sep... sisse
could we say that market is eager for positive US data prints ?

In such case , does market sometimes have certain bias no matter what FA outcome unless it gets short circuited by major factors ?

edit: I guess I am thinking out loud with a lot of BS in the background of my thoughts .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,255
  • Sep 15, 2016 4:16pm Sep 15, 2016 4:16pm
Lots of ideas and comments in the last hour.

Two wrap it up for today: Two points for the conversation remain open:

1. Momentum lines/areas...

We have some views from Pharm0r, Imarich and hoom that see momentum related to the outlook so neutral no momentum in play.

We have some views from Earlone that see momentum on market structure and some fundamental underlyings so momentum to the down side

We some views from Fisher755 that see momentum in both sides based on simple break of a inside bar trading range.

2. S/R and mid term maps pending from Imarich

We are waiting for his definition and example of S/R (or 'supply'/'demand' or whatever you name it) before moving forward ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,256
  • Sep 15, 2016 4:16pm Sep 15, 2016 4:16pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Oh my....and to think we were having such good relations up until now.....honeymoon is over... Okay, maybe I don't know how to define it.... R= is when price tries to get thru an area/level UPWARD and can't as it is met SELLERS and goes Down which INDICATES BEARS in CONTROL and back to find an area of SUPPORT which is an area where PRICE can't go DOWN more and met with BUYERS and PRICE goes up.
my definition would be
Resistance = Old Support that has been lost AND/OR Last High
and vice versa.

Loosing 1.116x should trigger momentum imo.
(I hope last US soft numbers won't be an excuse next week to forget Jackson Hole decisions)
  • #143,257
  • Sep 15, 2016 4:39pm Sep 15, 2016 4:39pm
Quoting hoom
{quote}edit: I guess I am thinking out loud with a lot of BS in the background of my thoughts could we say that market is eager for positive US data prints ? In such case , does market sometimes have certain bias no matter what FA outcome unless it gets short circuited by major factors ?.
On the contrary, you are getting to the key pointÂÂI have been making (trying to)all along (although some don't realise): EXPECTATIONS.

Markets primarily trade expectations not facts. When markets have an expectation for an outcome and ÂÂnumbers don't align, we minimise its importance (the opposite is equally true).

When a series of numbers keep holding expectations we get stuck in narrow chop until facts and numbers confirm expectations. Only a major flop or game changer will realign expectations to somewhere else.....

When markets are divided in expectations we get stuck in wide chop until things are clearer and the new direction is defined....

In a nutshell that is 90℅ of trading....the rest is just technicalities....

Good post mate you nailed it....that is the forest not the trees....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,258
  • Sep 15, 2016 4:50pm Sep 15, 2016 4:50pm
well duh- we all knew that already
  • #143,259
  • Sep 15, 2016 10:10pm Sep 15, 2016 10:10pm
I think what Sisse is giving us here (correct me if I'm wrong) is a gauge of the market's expectations when he says "short-term outlook is neutral", "mid-term is sell", etc. He may be basing this on institutional opinions and forecasts to a certain extent, but I think he's mostly using his own experience and judgement as a professional trader to determine the current outlook (expectation). You'll notice that he usually only changes the outlook just after an important news/data release. This is because he thinks a fundamental change in expectations has occurred, based on his long experience of the markets. He never (or hardly ever?) changes the outlook based on TA. This makes sense because it's the expectations that drive the market, not the other way around!

So the question about momentum is an interesting one. Both short-term and mid-term outlooks are neutral in EUR/USD, so I'd be inclined to answer "neither" too. But it depends on your definition. I'd also think that "both" is a valid answer, since a break of 1.13 could easily cause a strong continuation without hesitation, and a break of 1.12 could also cause a strong continuation without hesitation. That's the nature of tight ranges. There must be so many stop orders either side of the range, some to enter new positions and some SLs to exit existing ones (a double whammy), that price could fly either way temporarily. But as Pharm0r mentioned, is a 50 pip move valid in this context? Wouldn't the strong momentum moves tend to occur near the extremes of the range in outlook neutral? I don't know.

Interesting discussion here, as always. Thanks.
You reap what you sow.
  • #143,260
  • Sep 16, 2016 4:02am Sep 16, 2016 4:02am
Quoting hathor
Sold EurCad. Time will tell.
'Seller's hat' has been formed.
Time to fall or fade.
Have a good day mates!

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