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  • #143,201
  • Sep 15, 2016 9:47am Sep 15, 2016 9:47am
Quoting chester123
haha, guys, you took it really widely. I was just refering to the macro interpretation/context of the recent numbers. In any case I agree on the other points you made - i.e. primejarvis - something cooking in the background (there is so much political risk that it would be a miracle if we got out of this without any harm) + hoom - fed up with FED (the FED game is really frustrating. this is my first rate hike cycle in my trading life - but if its always like this its madness) On EU: well, it depends what u trade. But if you a swing trader this seems to me as a very tricky spot to trade. If we accept that its short term neutral on FA ground and my post-Brexit range map is valid ---- there are no cheap tickets now on short term in neutral as we sitting on flip. So even if you trade volume on the break from this compression - its definitely risky and not worth it R:R wise. {image}
Fa wise : what I see is if fed hikes in sep it will be very easy for them to schedule the ÂÂnormalizing process ÂÂ& will get very good even nos. In almost every sector, but in case they don't hike they have already overheated, and recession 2.0 will be on much speed for the emerging markets which will directly or indirectly give a nice blow to US also... And about rate hike cycle what I believe is the difference between the hikes will get shorter duration wise .... Correct me if I am wrong
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,202
  • Sep 15, 2016 9:59am Sep 15, 2016 9:59am
Well, the FED was leading towards 2 hikes this year at the beginning, now it's down to 1 and possibly 0.....

That being said one would think the FED would at least try to squeeze out one in December if nothing else....as 2 hikes down to 0 hikes is much uglier than 2 hikes down to 1. Of course I don't presume to know anything of what the FED chooses to do, but I'd think another December hike would be par for the course....
  • #143,203
  • Sep 15, 2016 10:04am Sep 15, 2016 10:04am
Quoting Pharm0r
Well, the FED was leading towards 2 hikes this year at the beginning, now it's down to 1 and possibly 0..... That being said one would think the FED would at least try to squeeze out one in December if nothing else....as 2 hikes down to 0 hikes is much uglier than 2 hikes down to 1. Of course I don't presume to know anything of what the FED chooses to do, but I'd think another December hike would be par for the course....
Off course yes but the fact is they have already changed the meaning short-term interest rates, if they can stretch the short-term rates to a decade they can do anything ... Even me I am not bother about there rate hikes but yes we can see a good volatility to trade ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,204
  • Sep 15, 2016 11:51am Sep 15, 2016 11:51am
Europe going home in a very dull day for trading after a very lame round of reports.

Markets in 'desperate' need of new evidence (for any side) before the FED but we are just getting soft reports confirming the short term status quo from everywhere.

We are a couple of reports away to crash in to FED sep with the most split market expectations on hikes this year, so get ready for fireworks as there could be large losers on one side or the other.

On currencies, Euro keep holding the FX board stuck in narrow chop short term in a monster mid term compression range that is now a few months overdue. .

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,205
  • Sep 15, 2016 11:58am Sep 15, 2016 11:58am
Quoting sisse
Europe going home in a very dull day for trading after a very lame round of reports. Markets in 'desperate' need of new evidence (for any side) before the FED but we are just getting soft reports confirming the short term status quo from everywhere. We are a couple of reports away to crash in to FED sep with the most split market expectations on hikes this year, so get ready for fireworks as there could be large losers on one side or the other. On currencies, Euro keep holding the FX board stuck in narrow chop short term in a monster mid term compression...
Imo, GU very nice long setup. Better than EU.
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PVSRA
  • #143,206
  • Sep 15, 2016 12:06pm Sep 15, 2016 12:06pm
I have been using a similar short term map to Chester's brexit range chart above but I am trying to decide where I like the flip on it. Both ways I'm looking at it depicted in these two charts. Anyone bored enough to share their thoughts on it?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #143,207
  • Sep 15, 2016 12:31pm Sep 15, 2016 12:31pm
Quoting goosebone
I have been using a similar short term map to Chester's brexit range chart above but I am trying to decide where I like the flip on it. Both ways I'm looking at it depicted in these two charts. Anyone bored enough to share their thoughts on it? {image} {image}
Nice charts and PA obviously in the middle of nowhere. Not so attractive to trade here, imo. And this ranging is nerve wrecking. Once it breaks it might be good move.
PVSRA
  • #143,208
  • Sep 15, 2016 12:45pm Sep 15, 2016 12:45pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Nice charts and PA obviously in the middle of nowhere. Not so attractive to trade here, imo. And this ranging is nerve wrecking. Once it breaks it might be good move.
Thanks. Not sure how to look at the flip. The second one roughly lines up with the one recently posted by sisse but pa since then made me think the first one makes sense. Oh well. I can watch things with the two in mind and figure which one worked better after the fact. And since trading here, like you said, isn't an option it don't matter much at the moment.
  • #143,209
  • Sep 15, 2016 12:49pm Sep 15, 2016 12:49pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Thanks. Not sure how to look at the flip. The second one roughly lines up with the one recently posted by sisse but pa since then made me think the first one makes sense. Oh well. I can watch things with the two in mind and figure which one worked better after the fact. And since trading here, like you said, isn't an option it don't matter much at the moment.
I like the plan pharm0r has- wait for the extreme and look for trade there good above 1.13xx. By the time PA gets there we might have nicer clues for short. Or not. But these universal HTF maps are amazing. I love them.
PVSRA
  • #143,210
  • Sep 15, 2016 1:17pm Sep 15, 2016 1:17pm
We have a pending topic open on momentum so:

Quoting goosebone
I have been using a similar short term map to Chester's brexit range chart above but I am trying to decide where I like the flip on it. Both ways I'm looking at it depicted in these two charts. Anyone bored enough to share their thoughts on it? {image} {image}
1. What makes you think the Euro map has changed since the summer ???
2. If it hasn't where are the momentum areas/lines?
3. If we change to long or short outlook short term? where would be the flip? and the momentum areas?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,211
  • Sep 15, 2016 1:17pm Sep 15, 2016 1:17pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} I like the plan pharm0r has- wait for the extreme and look for trade there good above 1.13xx. By the time PA gets there we might have nicer clues for short. Or not. But these universal HTF maps are amazing. I love them.
Me too.
  • #143,212
  • Sep 15, 2016 1:30pm Sep 15, 2016 1:30pm
If Fed does tighten next week, it may be because of Boston Feds Eric Rosengren

Link http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=607136
  • #143,213
  • Sep 15, 2016 1:50pm Sep 15, 2016 1:50pm
Quoting sisse
We have a pending topic open on momentum so: {quote} 1. What makes you think the Euro map has changed since the summer ??? 2. If it hasn't where are the momentum areas/lines? 3. If we change to long or short outlook short term? where would be the flip? and the momentum areas? sisse
Below are two charts. The second chart has an altered scale to show all the levels in play. My "map" would look like this. I wouldn`t short at the current levels. Earliest at the 1.1295 level. Preferrably at even higher levels. Target would be at the 1.10 level and below.

Very often the levels agree with your levels. Even though they are just calculations based on price movement.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #143,214
  • Sep 15, 2016 2:00pm Sep 15, 2016 2:00pm
Quoting sisse
We have a pending topic open on momentum so: {quote} 1. What makes you think the Euro map has changed since the summer ??? 2. If it hasn't where are the momentum areas/lines? 3. If we change to long or short outlook short term? where would be the flip? and the momentum areas? sisse
Euro map still the same since summer

Momentum areas depends on the pattern used no ? in this case while we're in a neutral range , I guess that price should swing to either sides extanding the distribution

area on high volume with minimal retrace .

Momentum lines 1.130x - 1.119x ? maybe I need to zoom out !!

How to spot momentum as accurate as possible ?
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,215
  • Sep 15, 2016 2:08pm Sep 15, 2016 2:08pm
Candle wicks from the upside are longer than the ones from the downside , how to use that as an indicator of what side has the most pressure and how much is it reliable

by experience ? what is better for S/R calculations on a breakout and retest for reference , the wick open/close value or the body open/close value ?
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,216
  • Sep 15, 2016 2:21pm Sep 15, 2016 2:21pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Show and Tell Time..... I show and sisse TELLS......... {image} {image}
Nothing has changed YET since the summer but closing in.....

Short term I would think MOMENTUM lines would be my RANGE lines?

And, Honestly, I am not sure where I would change my FLIP lines on Diff Outcome (SHORT/LONG). These lines represent the things they do and I don;t know how I just switch a line from S or R, Range or Momentum to a NEW FLIP. I think my FLIP line at the moment needs to be breached before I can call that along with confirmation of an OUTCOME CHANGE. Not sure how you can change it yet?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #143,217
  • Sep 15, 2016 2:31pm Sep 15, 2016 2:31pm
Quoting Decima
{quote} Below are two charts.
You need to provide context mate otherwise is hard to see what you are looking for. Put some TFs references and name/ref your indicators (you have a collage of indicators std channels, an oscillator and some kind of RSI, you need ref 3? 14? 21?, we need to know what type otherwise is just random and hard to trigger any conversation....

Quoting hoom
Candle wicks from the upside are longer than the ones from the downside ...
no not really. I am not talking about candle formation/wicks ...definitively not what i was talking about ...

Let's do a live 'fake' bet for this explanation -> I give you 2 levels:

->. 1.130x
->. 1.120x

Which one will trigger a momentum leg when taken for a short term swing:

A. Momentum Long with 1.130x taken
B. Momentum Short with 1.120x taken
C. Neither ...

If you get it right I give you '3 grand', If you don't you give me '1k' ....
Try to put it in the short term swing chart and we'll talk later to see hat happens ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,218
  • Sep 15, 2016 2:34pm Sep 15, 2016 2:34pm
My answer is neither if my MAP is right.....

But, what do you consider a MOMENTUM LEG sisse? How many pips in it? If .130X is hit, .137x could hold or .14XX. If .120X is hit, .113X could hold.
  • #143,219
  • Sep 15, 2016 2:42pm Sep 15, 2016 2:42pm
Quoting IMARICH1
My answer is neither if my MAP is right.....
Why did you choose that top of the mid term range? based on ?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,220
  • Sep 15, 2016 2:47pm Sep 15, 2016 2:47pm
For MIDTERM the TOP could be .14XX but I picked the current range lines and not as a TOP( TOP of RANGE). I mean PA could go thru .1354 but its been a TOP for SHORT TERM. If I am picking a TOP for MIDTERM it would be in the .14XX and LONG TERM it could be .17XX which I doubt for 2016-2017 unless FA changes.

I still consider .124X key area and thats where LONDON and NY keep parking it.

EDIT: And, I consider anything above the RANGE lines as EXHAUSTion line............
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