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  • #143,181
  • Sep 15, 2016 6:38am Sep 15, 2016 6:38am
Waiting...
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  • #143,182
  • Sep 15, 2016 7:31am Sep 15, 2016 7:31am
Flop in almost every front from the US one more time .... watch out Euro for NY ...

sisse
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  • #143,183
  • Sep 15, 2016 7:36am Sep 15, 2016 7:36am
Quoting sisse
Flop in almost every front from the US one more time .... watch out Euro for NY ... sisse
Flop in US data is the new norm !

Could market ignore it ?!!

edit : market has been selling usd before data that could be telling
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  • #143,184
  • Sep 15, 2016 7:39am Sep 15, 2016 7:39am
Quoting hoom
{quote} Flop in US data is the new norm ! Could market ignore it ?!!
Ya. USD/JPY ignore it. All of Major Pairs trying to ignore it... In Process...
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  • #143,185
  • Sep 15, 2016 7:40am Sep 15, 2016 7:40am
For the record, nobody took the long side in iteration 20B. We just cleared 1.128x ....Stops for 20B shorts naked hanging on air ...GL ...For those shorts from above nothing to see ...

sisse

Quoting sisse
+++++Iteration 20A +++++ Euro currently trading @ 1.121x "Survival of the fittest | Winners take all" -> LMT BUY 1.130x ​[check] -> TP 1.140x -> STP 1.120x[check] Stopped out and out of contest 1 Win | 1 Loss Ghandi assssssssss Fisher755 chester123 Ghandi eborn...

------- ---------

+++++Iteration 20B +++++

Euro currently trading @ 1.121x

"Survival of the fittest | Winners take all"


A. US numbers are weak. Chop and Range = rinse and repeat ...lets go up again -> LMT BUY 1.120x [check] ​-> TP 1.128x [check] -> STP 1.110x

B. ECB took care of the rest as expected. There is only one way down down down-> LMT SELL 1.120x -> TP1 => 1.112x | STP > 1.130x

hoom

Vorex

RoelsMajor


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,186
  • Sep 15, 2016 7:47am Sep 15, 2016 7:47am
Quoting hoom
{quote} Flop in US data is the new norm ! Could market ignore it ?!! edit : market has been selling usd before data that could be telling
Check ES (S&P) ticking below 2100.xx for the open ... don't forget the weaker the numbers the higher the odds of no hike sept and more free money till Dec...Strangely as it sounds, Inline would have been worst for markets than the miss...

Boat is still fully loaded. Doubt we lose 2100.xx for more than a quick breach...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,187
  • Sep 15, 2016 7:52am Sep 15, 2016 7:52am
Usually price doesn't stall a lot after news [ a flop in this case ] so any laggers could jump in. Thus , I am not playing the reverso on this one especially that we got CPI

tomorrow to set the final deal in terms of next leg .
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  • #143,188
  • Sep 15, 2016 7:52am Sep 15, 2016 7:52am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Check ES (S&P) ticking below 2100.xx for the open ... don't forget the weaker the numbers the higher the odds of no hike sept and more free money till Dec...Strangely as it sounds, Inline would have been worst for markets than the miss... Boat is still fully loaded. Doubt we lose 2100.xx for more than a quick breach... sisse
hmm, thats what I was thinking. A bear trap on the NY open.
  • #143,189
  • Sep 15, 2016 8:03am Sep 15, 2016 8:03am
Quoting chester123
{quote} hmm, thats what I was thinking. A bear trap on the NY open.
Indeed, the main issue for trading is that the numbers are really going upside down with FED Sep still 'far' in the horizon, so any rally will be choppy at best. Also Euro is unsustainable for much longer at these levels and if Equities short-circuit before the FED it's going to blow leaving a trail of blood in dollar ...

Lets see how it goes for NY, flat here in Equities since early in the week as the forces in play before the FED sep (for the FED play itself are crystal clear ) have gotten rather complex with contradictory forces clashing in ATH...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,190
  • Sep 15, 2016 8:31am Sep 15, 2016 8:31am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed, the main issue for trading is that the numbers are really going upside down with FED Sep still 'far' in the horizon, so any rally will be choppy at best. Also Euro is unsustainable for much longer at these levels and if Equities short-circuit before the FED it's going to blow leaving a trail of blood in dollar ... Lets see how it goes for NY, flat here in Equities since early in the week as the forces in play before the FED sep (for the FED play itself are crystal clear ) have gotten rather complex with contradictory forces clashing...
technically and time-ly I would see it as this. I can see the final push. However, Its true that on D1 the gap between now and FED is rather big. anyways, have no idea what can happen after the final pish cuz there would be chop/decline going into US elections (cateris paribus macro, EU etc.) and if trump wins I bet all hell will break loose.

actually, I was thinking that BOJ could add to the push up. do you agree? honestly, from all CBs BOJ is the most difficult one for me to understand and expect anything. there are millions of contradictors articles, they super far in the monetary expansion, I dont even know how further can go if not using helicopter money etc...
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  • #143,191
  • Sep 15, 2016 8:32am Sep 15, 2016 8:32am
to be very frank i dont see those US nos. aren't that bad in comparison to the previous nos. but not a good fundamentalist as sisse is , but still i see a fed hike in sep open on the table.
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  • #143,192
  • Sep 15, 2016 8:37am Sep 15, 2016 8:37am
Quoting primejarvis
to be very frank i dont see those US nos. aren't that bad in comparison to the previous nos. but not a good fundamentalist as sisse is , but still i see a fed hike in sep open on the table.
I think the numbers are hard to judge because the flops are just one round/month numbers so its not even to be considered as a short term cycle/trend. So I bet also hard to judge for FED. One number I would pick was the flop in service PMI - that was pretty mindblowing. Today numbers may be flop but not that big a deal per se. Just adding to judgement that the month was pretty bad leaving us and FED wondering if its just a bump or a start of a short/mid/long trend-change - and as we get more and more far into the business cycle the suspision of something bigger is just getting more serious. Just my judgement
  • #143,193
  • Sep 15, 2016 8:59am Sep 15, 2016 8:59am
Quoting chester123
{quote} I think the numbers are hard to judge because the flops are just one round/month numbers so its not even to be considered as a short term cycle/trend. So I bet also hard to judge for FED. One number I would pick was the flop in service PMI - that was pretty mindblowing. Today numbers may be flop but not that big a deal per se. Just adding to judgement that the month was pretty bad leaving us and FED wondering if its just a bump or a start of a short/mid/long trend-change - and as we get more and more far into the business cycle the suspision...

Indeed i totally agree to you the more delay the more serious things are cooking behind the back .... any nos. before fed will create a chop (as sisse said earlier) which is technically not tradeable ... so will sit back and relax .... waiting for big players to enter the game and get a direction ... overall scenario is something real serious is on the way .... which ever the side may be...
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  • #143,194
  • Sep 15, 2016 9:01am Sep 15, 2016 9:01am
Quoting chester123
{quote} I think the numbers are hard to judge because the flops are just one round/month numbers so its not even to be considered as a short term cycle/trend. So I bet also hard to judge for FED. One number I would pick was the flop in service PMI - that was pretty mindblowing. Today numbers may be flop but not that big a deal per se. Just adding to judgement that the month was pretty bad leaving us and FED wondering if its just a bump or a start of a short/mid/long trend-change - and as we get more and more far into the business cycle the suspision...
To be honest , one is fed up with same BS over and over ... if I type FED hike or not in the search area I would get thousands of opinions all over the year and yet we are

clueless . Put aside FA , at some point [EURUSD] would pick a direction and just go as it can't stay forever in this low range .
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  • #143,195
  • Sep 15, 2016 9:05am Sep 15, 2016 9:05am
Quoting hoom
{quote} To be honest , one is fed up with same BS over and over ... if I type FED hike or not in the search area I would get thousands of opinions all over the year and yet we are clueless . Put aside FA , at some point [EURUSD] would pick a direction and just go as it can't stay forever in this low range .
your sentence looks really tired & frustrated with the low range .....
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  • #143,196
  • Sep 15, 2016 9:06am Sep 15, 2016 9:06am
For reference , EURUSD gets bid everytime around 1.122x so high TF closes under is what I am looking for .

Now just look at price action around that area .
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  • #143,197
  • Edited 9:36am Sep 15, 2016 9:11am | Edited 9:36am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} your sentence looks really tired & frustrated with the low range .....
Not at all , it's the discussion whether the FED is hiking or not that is irritating because no one knows what their next move could be . I said it many times why would

market believe Yellen after she lost credibility over and over .

So , instead of being trapped in the same loophole , let's focus on a break to either sides instead of arguing the FED actions and try to decrypt market expectations .
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  • #143,198
  • Sep 15, 2016 9:22am Sep 15, 2016 9:22am
haha, guys, you took it really widely. I was just refering to the macro interpretation/context of the recent numbers.

In any case I agree on the other points you made - i.e. primejarvis - something cooking in the background (there is so much political risk that it would be a miracle if we got out of this without any harm) + hoom - fed up with FED (the FED game is really frustrating. this is my first rate hike cycle in my trading life - but if its always like this its madness)

On EU: well, it depends what u trade. But if you a swing trader this seems to me as a very tricky spot to trade. If we accept that its short term neutral on FA ground and my post-Brexit range map is valid ---- there are no cheap tickets now on short term in neutral as we sitting on flip. So even if you trade volume on the break from this compression - its definitely risky and not worth it R:R wise.
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  • #143,199
  • Sep 15, 2016 9:25am Sep 15, 2016 9:25am
Finally market starting to move with fast acceleration in response to weak US Numbers, starting with U/Cad and AU... From the Top and the Bottom of the range (maybe)...
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  • #143,200
  • Sep 15, 2016 9:27am Sep 15, 2016 9:27am
Quoting hoom
{quote} Not at all , it's the discussion wether the FED is hiking or not that is irritating because no one knows what their next move could be . I said it many times why would market believe Yellen after she lost credibility over and over . So , instead of being trapped in the same loophole , let's focus on a break to either sides instead of arguing the FED actions and try to decrypt market expectations .
i am not in a worry of whether the fed is going to hike or not we all will see it in the meeting ... i am just with main trend ....

Whatsoever the consequences it should not change the main trend because in order to be a game changer many things are to be played .... and as per sisse we the retailers will never get the smell ....
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