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The Really Useless Thread

  • #143,141
  • Sep 13, 2016 10:28am Sep 13, 2016 10:28am
Quoting Pharm0r
Intelligent trading is boring trading
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,142
  • Sep 13, 2016 11:26am Sep 13, 2016 11:26am
Europe going home with all markets on the brink of major legs extension. OIL joining the party after the last opec news and now getting push but the preemptive selloff in Equities. Watch-out OIL losing the $45 handle as there is lots of air below. For those holding positions for the swing -> $35 is trailing time as there is no point on risking even a tick above last highs ....

All main markets moving in perfect synch bar one short term: Euro on maximum compression about to blow on the brink but bulls refusing to capitulate so far which is pointing to major hands fighting and/or clearing on a rush. As mentioned yesterday, given the current environment and flows, Euro wont held a breach of the handle but more importantly, all large bids will be raised for a few handles down the road till the FED ...so far no break no shake ...so no nothing ...

Great 2 days for trading across the board, volatility is finally back and markets are back on track after the summer....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,143
  • Sep 13, 2016 11:31am Sep 13, 2016 11:31am
Quoting sisse
US equities struggling to hold the opening range for the first time in a couple months. For those in the equities play, don't like what I am seeing neither how markets across the board are moving. Here manually flatting all long positions in US equities way before targets and staying sideline and ready to play the reverso if we lose the lows
I am well set for a slide into FOMC week, but, looking beyond, I have to project another Fed whiff and yet another btfd for US equities, a bounce off the bottom range spoos 2,100 +/- back toward 2,200 in early October. If that happens it may be brief, though, as I'd bet pre-election jitters will be setting in pretty soon....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,144
  • Sep 13, 2016 11:51am Sep 13, 2016 11:51am
Sisse when this 30 pips range will blow ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,145
  • Edited 12:47pm Sep 13, 2016 12:13pm | Edited 12:47pm
"As mentioned yesterday, given the current environment and flows, Euro wont held a breach of the handle but more importantly, all large bids will be raised for a few handles down the road till the FED"-sisse


I don't know why I get lost sometimes; but, a breach of the .1200 handle will send EURO to .112X and then LARGE BIDS will be raised meaning price will go higher before LOWER or LOWER before HIGHER?

I know sisse thought yesterday that the HIGH of this month may be already SET. Not sure if he still sees it this way with how markets are behaving today. But, if we lose the .1200 handle and the BULLS don't capitulate; then, does .1080 come into play? Last week or so I thought LONDON and NY closing under .124X a few times was Bearish but that wasn't the case as PA went to .135X. Here we are again and again.

If anyone understands this, I would appreciate a response if you are certain you know how to interpret this. I honestly was looking at .097X to come into play again before the FOMC IF DATA looked FAVORABLE again.
  • #143,146
  • Edited 12:36pm Sep 13, 2016 12:25pm | Edited 12:36pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I am well set for a slide into FOMC week, but, looking beyond, I have to project another Fed whiff and yet another btfd for US equities, a bounce off the bottom range spoos 2,100 +/- back toward 2,200 in early October.....
Same page. Things got a bit clearer fpr trading after the last round of bad US numbers.

-> Preemtive selloff on Yellen (Jackson) for FED sep. With FED flop soft buy bad numbers on free money till DEC. While on FED hikes, we already on healthy profit taking for the year so just raise all longs for the year while politics (from both side of the Atlantic) hijack markets while the economy digest hikes ...

sisse
Quoting primejarvis
Sisse when this 30 pips range will blow ...
Quoting IMARICH1
...; but, a breach of the .1200 handle will send EURO to .112X ...
... mate i'm referring to the 500 tick compression mid term range...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,147
  • Sep 13, 2016 12:43pm Sep 13, 2016 12:43pm
30 pips range will blow first then only the 500 ticks will stat it's capacity ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,148
  • Sep 13, 2016 12:57pm Sep 13, 2016 12:57pm
Quoting primejarvis
30 pips range will blow first then only the 500 ticks will stat it's capacity ...
Only after we blow this 2.5 pip range on the 10 second chart.
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  • #143,149
  • Sep 13, 2016 12:59pm Sep 13, 2016 12:59pm
Quoting primejarvis
30 pips range will blow first then only the 500 ticks will stat it's capacity ...
You're getting it wrong !

I think he is referring to the compression range created with the high and low prior and after brexit happened , it's been neutral since then in 500 ticks range so the

breach is not at 1.12xx handle but at the extremes .

edit : you could mark 1.116x as middle
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,150
  • Sep 13, 2016 1:03pm Sep 13, 2016 1:03pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Only after we blow this 2.5 pip range on the 10 second chart. {image}
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,151
  • Sep 13, 2016 1:08pm Sep 13, 2016 1:08pm
Guys I was just joking ... I know what sisse is pointing to ... What range he is talking about ... Getting bored with the drama ... As posted earlier e/u is trapped in a hole and the compression range is getting tighter ... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,152
  • Sep 13, 2016 1:10pm Sep 13, 2016 1:10pm
sisse,

Thanks, but still trying to understand what does " all large bids will be raised for a few handles down the road till the FED".

What does this look like? .08XX or .073X as a MID TERM LEG? If we breech .1200 handle, then, OUTLOOK in EU changes in SHORT and MID TERM pre-FED? I know you said in back posts that EU would lead its own demise in devaluing of its currency regardless of US hikes. Is this correct?

If .132x is the HIGH for the month and .1127 is the LOW so far, is it not possible we could sit between another month of 180 pips? This month has been around 200 pips so far. MONTHLY chart is showing this compression as well.
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  • #143,153
  • Sep 13, 2016 2:11pm Sep 13, 2016 2:11pm
did anyone hear a pop?
  • #143,154
  • Sep 13, 2016 2:27pm Sep 13, 2016 2:27pm
Quoting Pharm0r
did anyone hear a pop?
Yepp
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,155
  • Sep 13, 2016 4:07pm Sep 13, 2016 4:07pm
...and we rolled with a rather bearish close in Euro but still the only main market refusing to play ball yet....still hanging by its fingernails but hanging at the end....

On the rest of the board, very light calendar tomorrow so all eyes on more time in the BOE giving us a surprise or a confirmation later this week ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,156
  • Sep 13, 2016 11:28pm Sep 13, 2016 11:28pm
flags on h4 and daily

looks like another trip to the top
  • #143,157
  • Sep 14, 2016 2:38am Sep 14, 2016 2:38am
Quoting Pharm0r
flags on h4 and daily looks like another trip to the top
this time not top ....

Quoting primejarvis
{quote} But at least micro tf's has a good volatility to scalp if a trader is a good scalper ... Oh! Not me .. Waiting for a direction ... What do you expect whether e/u gonna take a direction before fed or on fed ... What i see is a flag formation in h4 and d1 ..
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,158
  • Sep 14, 2016 5:29am Sep 14, 2016 5:29am
Waiting for NY Session Effect. Strong, and strong, and strong USD.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #143,159
  • Sep 14, 2016 5:57am Sep 14, 2016 5:57am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} this time not top .... {quote}
well see, i dont trust flags. ever.
  • #143,160
  • Sep 14, 2016 6:29am Sep 14, 2016 6:29am
Hi! This is my first post in the Useless Thread ...
However, I have been following the thread for quite a while.
I got an interesting question for Sisse and all the other guys..
I am quite interested in your detailed answer on this fundamental matter:

USD/JPY was strongly (positively) correlated with the indices (Dax, Dow, S&P).
It was a very reliable indicator and the correlation helped me a lot.

Some weeks ago that correlation changed / shifted and we can now see a clear NEGATIVE correlation - see attached picture.

I kind of know / feel what happened, yet I am very interested on your details and fundamental take on this.

Cheers

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