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  • #143,121
  • Sep 12, 2016 12:44pm Sep 12, 2016 12:44pm
Quoting Pharm0r
yeeeehaw...
Exactly .... Hahaha ... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,122
  • Sep 12, 2016 12:53pm Sep 12, 2016 12:53pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Nothing really new. Same FEd pawns in the wires....was referring at flows in main markets. 'Large' clearance on the European close especially. Floor is naked both Euro and Gold....if this is what i think is....we may mark the high of the month in both today.... sisse
once experience talks one shall listen !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,123
  • Sep 12, 2016 12:54pm Sep 12, 2016 12:54pm
That's all for today ... Last fed member to speak before fed chair yellen ... Nothing to see ... No break no shake ... Same choppy bars creating until fed ... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,124
  • Sep 13, 2016 2:52am Sep 13, 2016 2:52am
Was looking the technical for Sterling + + at investing.com
Many releases for sterling this week . I change/trade with short term outlook neutral.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,125
  • Sep 13, 2016 3:24am Sep 13, 2016 3:24am
Quoting Earleone
Was looking the technical for Sterling + + at investing.com Many releases for sterling this week . I change/trade with short term outlook neutral. {image}
I bet "They" will create bad news soon for GBP. Who knows? If CPI bad so all bad. This time maybe Bad News is a Bad News.

Edit:
- And Bad News is Bad News. Hurrah! Now What will the Prices doing after...
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #143,126
  • Sep 13, 2016 3:34am Sep 13, 2016 3:34am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} I bet "They" will create bad news soon for GBP. Who knows? If CPI bad so all bad. This time maybe Bad News is a Bad News. Edit: - And Bad News is Bad News. Hurrah! Now What will the Prices doing after...
It comes many more releases during the week. Not bad numbers actually.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,127
  • Edited 5:23am Sep 13, 2016 4:31am | Edited 5:23am
Quoting sisse
Lots of action in the European session with best day in a while for trading. Equities, bonds and Oil on the move worldwide. V. decent retrace in European Equities flirting with a selloff with US equities entering in 'choose your poison time' for NY. The latest round of soft reports in the US news added to CB just mentioning that 'free money' wont be forever were enough for markets to trigger the 'cat and mouse' game. Markets sitting on a preemptive selloff levels across the world aiming all cannons to the FED so it avoid hiking this year and...
Just my update on equities. Exactly as sisse said. Yesterday flirting with pre-emptive sell-off to laugh into FED face. Brainard saved the day for now. I plan to play the game on DAX.

Chart one: shows how ECB killed the short term extension (3rd target) of the post-brexit short term buy on free moey. Too bad I underestimated the ECB shift - as now it seems almost a game changer as it sparked the worldwide discussion of end of free money- would be perfect to short right after ECB (the cheapest ticket). In any case the leg on the chart is over and we sitting on a launching platform for short and mid term down.

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As far as I know sisse did not change his short term outlook on DAX - still buy? or was ECB game changer for short term neutral or sell?

In any case - chart two: shows short term neutral outlook.

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In case we are in sell short term here is 3rd chart:

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So how to trade short term? It depends on the interpretation of ECB and free money policy and expectations of other CBs.

As for now Im moving from DAX short term buy to neutral/sell due to ECB - early hint of no more free money =) exact status to be determined by BOE, FED, BOJ combination. No matter if neutral or sell we have cheap tickets between top and extreme =) so on a small TF retrace Im gonna short once we between top and extreme (light calendar, we may get there, bonds may have a small dead cat bounce, hopefully the preemptive move was killed yesterday etc.).

Later we decide - basically on monetary policy outcomes of thats the main driver now:
Neutral short term FA - in case of contradictiory monetary outcome - FED hikes/BOJ expands policy etc.
Sell short term FA - in case of hawks take over - FED hikes/BOJ stays pat etc.
xxx or FED folds again - and than hard to say - either again short term buy or risk-off reaction?

From larger perspective:
we are in mid term strong sell - you can see we are still in very cheap seats mid term. So I argue if the CBś go well we may have short term down on short term rates + it equilas of first short term leg of the mid term down. We map the rest of the mid term after FED move setlles down (as it may get more complex due to BOJ).

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  • #143,128
  • Sep 13, 2016 4:44am Sep 13, 2016 4:44am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Just my update on equities. Exactly as sisse said. Yesterday flirting with pre-emptive sell-off to laugh into FED face. Brainard saved the day for now. I plan to play the game on DAX. Chart one: shows how ECB killed the short term extension (3rd target). Too bad I underestimated the ECB shift - as now it seems almost a game changer as it sparked the worldwide discussion of end of free money- would be perfect to short right after ECB (the cheapest ticket). In any case the leg on the chart is almost over and we sitting on a launching platform...
I am with you there. I dont see much more of an extension in the DAX, max 10495, and then resumption of the downside
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #143,129
  • Sep 13, 2016 6:27am Sep 13, 2016 6:27am
Major flop in Economic confidence from Europe. Very light calendar and Euro is hanging in its fingernails for NY.

Key session in play in US equities so very active trading and management here ...

sisse

Quoting chester123
...As far as I know sisse did not change his short term outlook on DAX - still buy?
Very good post.

For your reference, we are in short term neutral and mid term sell since Brexit in European Equities. DAX 1068x is still open short term, while losing 1059x until the FED Sep will set the high of the year and pretty much lock all the way down to 10700 for the foreseeable future.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,130
  • Sep 13, 2016 6:38am Sep 13, 2016 6:38am
Quoting sisse
Major flop in Economic confidence from Europe. Very light calendar and Euro is hanging in its fingernails for NY. Key session in play in US equities so very active trading and management here ... sisse {quote} Very good post. For your reference, we are in short term neutral and mid term sell since Brexit in European Equities. DAX 1068x is still open short term, while losing 1059x until the FED Sep will set the high of the year and pretty much lock all the way down to 10700 for the foreseeable future. sisse
ahh, ok ok, so the first short term map should look a little bit different - different setting of lines since the summer mode was neutral not buy. but even with that we basically on the same page from the FA and on the direction now (neutral short term/sell mid term), which is nice
  • #143,131
  • Sep 13, 2016 6:44am Sep 13, 2016 6:44am
Quoting sisse
Major flop in Economic confidence from Europe. Very light calendar and Euro is hanging in its fingernails for NY. Key session in play in US equities so very active trading and management here ... sisse {quote} Very good post. For your reference, we are in short term neutral and mid term sell since Brexit in European Equities. DAX 1068x is still open short term, while losing 1059x until the FED Sep will set the high of the year and pretty much lock all the way down to 10700 for the foreseeable future. sisse
Sorry sisse, I dont understand the levels mentioned. All the way down to 9700 you mean?
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #143,132
  • Sep 13, 2016 6:52am Sep 13, 2016 6:52am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Sorry sisse, I dont understand the levels mentioned. All the way down to 9700 you mean?
I think it means this....
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  • #143,133
  • Sep 13, 2016 7:23am Sep 13, 2016 7:23am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Just my update on equities. Exactly as sisse said. Yesterday flirting with pre-emptive sell-off to laugh into FED face. Brainard saved the day for now. I plan to play the game on DAX. Chart one: shows how ECB killed the short term extension (3rd target) of the post-brexit short term buy on free moey. Too bad I underestimated the ECB shift - as now it seems almost a game changer as it sparked the worldwide discussion of end of free money- would be perfect to short right after ECB (the cheapest ticket). In any case the leg on the chart is...
What a good post and great charts
  • #143,134
  • Sep 13, 2016 7:37am Sep 13, 2016 7:37am
Watch-out Sterling and Yen already on the move for NY, only Euro left in the short term and the DX will blow the 96.xx handle for the FED Sep...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,135
  • Edited 9:11am Sep 13, 2016 8:26am | Edited 9:11am
Just to be clear, and this is the only time I will mention it- Trader's Way withdraws are no longer trust worthy

I'm posting this here because of my post earlier regarding the brokers I use.
  • #143,136
  • Sep 13, 2016 9:08am Sep 13, 2016 9:08am
EURUSD bulls holding firmly from the breakdown ...the more they hold the better the move if it unfolds ...waiting patiently for it to pan out !

Maybe flows from EURGBP could help if sterling finds some support .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,137
  • Sep 13, 2016 9:31am Sep 13, 2016 9:31am
US equities struggling to hold the opening range for the first time in a couple months. For those in the equities play, don't like what I am seeing neither how markets across the board are moving. Here manually flatting all long positions in US equities way before targets and staying sideline and ready to play the reverso if we lose the lows.

Euro keep struggling a lot and the pressure is causing short-circuits in the last couple of sessions. For the third consecutive day, Europe going home will leave the map wide open for the US to finish the deal ...

On the rest, not much to do here, but same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,138
  • Sep 13, 2016 9:46am Sep 13, 2016 9:46am
Quoting sisse
...watch-out Gold and Dollar with Europe going home. FED talking heads are in a rampage since last week with Euro triggering imminent short term break down alerts for the 1st time over a month ... sisse @primejarvis n the middle scalpers (free money) are just enjoying a lot ... Wishful thinking ...the odds of 'scalpers' getting anything consistent around these areas is a bit less than usual meaning around zero to none in micro TFs.... .... sisse
I could profit small with scalping, but got some gray hair with blody ranging this week, so you are most probably right that it would be better to wait for the break.
Hope we get it this week. Still waiting..
PVSRA
  • #143,139
  • Sep 13, 2016 9:53am Sep 13, 2016 9:53am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} I could profit small with scalping, but got some gray hair with blody ranging this week, so you are most probably right that it would be better to wait for the break. Hope we get it this week. Still waiting..
yes same here .... even was thinking of scalping but not my choice .... thats why no trade running waiting for it to take a direction .... this congestion will show a real dramatic show .... when this drama is going to get cleared thats the part of the game .... but its really boring waiting waiting & waiting .......
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,140
  • Sep 13, 2016 9:57am Sep 13, 2016 9:57am
Intelligent trading is boring trading
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