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EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

  • #3,341
  • Sep 8, 2016 12:49pm Sep 8, 2016 12:49pm
Also it is interesting to note that against the Usd, the Euro has recovered the most part of its drop on referendum day, whereas the Pound has not recovered at all, still 1,500 pips down.
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  • #3,342
  • Sep 9, 2016 4:07am Sep 9, 2016 4:07am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Many thanks indeed for your analysis. Since the referendum (when the Euro came off much better than the Pound) it has become obvious that this move has stuck and will probably continue. If we give the rate an arbitrary range of .6000 in 2000 to .9600 in 2008 that means since the vote the Pound has lost 30% in this range against the Euro in less than 3 months.


You are welcome.
I wanna underline that I am NOT a long term investors, so all my conclusion by now are based only on my point of view.

In the picture where you see the four crosses on weekly TF, not consider fibonacci etc.

Looking at the market the possibilty that everything change is possible so to make long term forecast is very very difficult.

Considering the EurGbp is more possible that the cross will move up (maybe it could test again the 0.97 level) than down for the simple reason that a big part of the economy of the UK was based on euroland and changing the status quo (UK referendum) has created some issue that will decrease the value of the GBP on very long term. This doesn't mean that GBP will not a good curency but simply that the market will see as more risky to have GBP that others currencies.
Look at pre UK referendum, on the paper until may 2016 everything was good but the forecast that maybe some would have changed (at the end it changed) has moved many investors to shift money from gbp to other safe currencies (Jpy at first etc).
About the correlaction that exists between EURgbp and EURusd you could see that is very high more than the correlaction between GBPusd and EURusd.

Considering now the cross EurUsd we know that Mr Dragons has decided to intruduce QE in 2014 in order to decrease the value of Eur and boost the exportations from EU in order to fight the crysis of 2008 and solve some problems...
it is by 1 year and half that EurUsd is trading in a narrow range (compare the same period in the blue rectangle) that means the strong hands are not in the market.
Now we are moving to test for the third time the resistence that has been already tested three times from 2008 to 2012. Maybe there could be a retracement until 1.22XX that could be possible considering that the yellow are is a triangle and the second big support is placed exactly in a distance that is the high of the triangle. About that I have some dubt because I do not think that Draghi will let to waste all the QE that he had done.
So looking at the correlaction between EG and EU in order to have a big growth on EurGbp (EG) (the new famous elliots movement) the correlaction between these two crosses must be moved from positive to negative otherwise there will be an illogical conclusion.
EurGbp moves up --- Eurusd moves up -------> logic because the Uk will see its currencies to lose value --- illogic because all the work done by Draghi will be wasted
EurGbp moves down --- EurUsd moves down ------> illogical because it means that in few time Uk has found a solution to a big crisis --- logical because this follow the view of Draghi to boost EU exportations

We will se in the mean time I hope to reach 0.87 on EruGbp XD lol
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  • #3,343
  • Sep 12, 2016 3:53am Sep 12, 2016 3:53am
Thanks again DevArt. I like the last chart with the weekly channel break out scenario. Although I have several long positions currently and I have pending orders waiting above the current price' I am not excited by this pair for the medium term (weeks). In particular the monthly candlestick formation is slightly confused, struggling with price overhead resistance at the .8600 and .8700 levels. In particular we are trading within the range of the bearish weekly candle of 28/8/16 - .8375 - .8550 and while we are here we could range for a while like we did in 2013.

This pair likes to break out of tight London open ranges, especially after the London 09:30 news and that's what I will be concentrating on in the near future.
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  • #3,344
  • Sep 12, 2016 6:43am Sep 12, 2016 6:43am
8384 seems like a good place to buy.
at some point i hope to short towards this number at 8466
shorter term am bearish, am flat though
  • #3,345
  • Sep 13, 2016 5:44am Sep 13, 2016 5:44am
Quoting longshot_nl
8384 seems like a good place to buy. at some point i hope to short towards this number at 8466 shorter term am bearish, am flat though
Agreed. But beautiful break upwards off this morning's news releases might make this the low for now.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,346
  • Sep 13, 2016 6:14am Sep 13, 2016 6:14am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Agreed. But beautiful break upwards off this morning's news releases might make this the low for now. {image}
8466 failed..
8479 seems to be the last line of defense for the bears.
i wait and see what happens with itchy trigger finger..
  • #3,347
  • Sep 13, 2016 7:08am Sep 13, 2016 7:08am
I'm also waiting to see whether it will break above 0.8480. Of it does I'll open a long position.
  • #3,348
  • Sep 13, 2016 7:13am Sep 13, 2016 7:13am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} 8466 failed.. 8479 seems to be the last line of defense for the bears. i wait and see what happens with itchy trigger finger..
number did not hold either.
am out of ideas on the pair.
  • #3,349
  • Sep 13, 2016 8:26am Sep 13, 2016 8:26am
eg approaching monthly pp @ 8510.
another interesting level i find 8573/4. which is 61.8 retracement among other things

i am not the first one to short after all this.

orange line is monthly pp.
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  • #3,350
  • Sep 13, 2016 9:53am Sep 13, 2016 9:53am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} number did not hold either. am out of ideas on the pair.

For me, technicals did not come into it. Poor numbers from Gbp and good numbers from Eur within 30 minutes is a no brainer. I watch out for Usd and Cad numbers for similar reasons.
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  • #3,351
  • Sep 20, 2016 2:37am Sep 20, 2016 2:37am
Hello,
this is my view.
Target 0.87

With the last trade I have inserted a small SL (from 0.8559 [image 2] I moved to 0.8580] because if the market will not able to break the resistence at 0.8580-0.8600 it may drops at down at test again 0.8480/0.8500

Ciao
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  • #3,352
  • Sep 20, 2016 4:12am Sep 20, 2016 4:12am
just shorted @ 8600
sl 8 pips now.
target: 8255
  • #3,353
  • Sep 20, 2016 5:33am Sep 20, 2016 5:33am
Quoting longshot_nl
just shorted @ 8600 sl 8 pips now. target: 8255
shit problems with oanda, my stoploss not triggered. already 10 pips above sl.
support not reachable.
  • #3,354
  • Sep 20, 2016 5:39am Sep 20, 2016 5:39am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} shit problems with oanda, my stoploss not triggered. already 10 pips above sl. support not reachable.
20 pips above my stop loss now, still no oanda support.
no account left soon this way.
  • #3,355
  • Sep 20, 2016 5:54am Sep 20, 2016 5:54am
Do you guys think it will break above 0.8630?
  • #3,356
  • Sep 20, 2016 5:54am Sep 20, 2016 5:54am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} 20 pips above my stop loss now, still no oanda support. no account left soon this way.

Is this MT4?
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  • #3,357
  • Sep 20, 2016 6:03am Sep 20, 2016 6:03am
Quoting mlawson71
Do you guys think it will break above 0.8630?

No idea. It's an uptrend which started at the end of last year and accelerated with the referendum mess. I wouldn't want to be short. Especially with an offline broker... LOL
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  • #3,358
  • Sep 20, 2016 6:14am Sep 20, 2016 6:14am
Quoting longshot_nl
just shorted @ 8600 sl 8 pips now. target: 8255
Explain me this view please
  • #3,359
  • Sep 20, 2016 6:30am Sep 20, 2016 6:30am
Quoting Devart
{quote} Explain me this view please
He might think is a head and shoulders formation on daily chart.... maybe....
I need the magic ball
  • #3,360
  • Sep 20, 2016 7:01am Sep 20, 2016 7:01am
Quoting stars1985
{quote} He might think is a head and shoulders formation on daily chart.... maybe....
Well, it can be but on such long time I do not trust too much on pattern.
Now on the top of this mini trend there high volume and low volume below.
Let's wait for the US session to see what will happen.
From what I see:
- Value area always higher
- Low volume below and high volume up
- a past resistence that has broken in few time between 08.08 and 10.08 (august) very easily

Honestly I am up
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