Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 546 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #10,901
  • Sep 11, 2016 1:00am Sep 11, 2016 1:00am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} {image} Notice how price usually retraces 38% - 62% before it continues higher/lower. Gray diamond dot is 50% Can you take a hint? Makes me wonder about entering at the open instead of high/low break.
TooSlow

Any backtest , or probability to give some substance about your assertion ?

SB
trying to make everyday the best risk/reward decisions possible
  • #10,902
  • Sep 11, 2016 3:10am Sep 11, 2016 3:10am
Quoting claudia1
Peaceful end to a long week and not a turkey in sight. {image}
Brill trading Claudia...thanks for posting, a 60pips or so for me....looking forward to next week too...
Onwards and upwards...
  • #10,903
  • Sep 11, 2016 3:11am Sep 11, 2016 3:11am
Quoting billytt
{quote} {image}
Hahaha...very funny BT

I am vvv happy to read your thread and have learnt loads from all the posts here..most grateful to you all...
Onwards and upwards...
  • #10,904
  • Sep 11, 2016 6:30am Sep 11, 2016 6:30am
Quoting soccerfan
{quote} Hahaha...very funny BT I am vvv happy to read your thread and have learnt loads from all the posts here..most grateful to you all...
yes indeed, and a big thanks to all the contributors.
We have suggested methods to suit individual traders tastes...
Plus pairs/indices to be studied.
Just keep it simple though....
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #10,905
  • Sep 11, 2016 9:14am Sep 11, 2016 9:14am
Quoting billytt
{quote} I may of misinterpreted your post and chart. What you say is very interesting but I think entering on the open is very risky. Maybe if you explained more. (said in a nice way) as we are here to learn .
No problem.
My feathers do not get ruffled easily.
But let me pose a question
Isn't entering on the high even riskier?
Prices makes new high.
Price pulls back.
Candle closes.
Price pulls back even more.
Price stops (between 38% and 61% fib).
Price reverses.
Now for price to make a new high:

  1. Price must pass through open of current candle
  2. Price must retrace back to high
  3. If price continues a new high is made.

What makes entering at 1) risking than at 3)?
Asking in a nice way.

My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #10,906
  • Sep 11, 2016 9:17am Sep 11, 2016 9:17am
Quoting slowbrain
{quote} TooSlow Any backtest , or probability to give some substance about your assertion ? SB
slowbrain haven't you read my threads?
Backtesting does not yield anything useful - Uncertainty principle.
Trading yields statistics.
No probabilities.
Confusing statistics for probabilities yields loss.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #10,907
  • Sep 11, 2016 12:11pm Sep 11, 2016 12:11pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} No problem. My feathers do not get ruffled easily. But let me pose a question Isn't entering on the high even riskier? Prices makes new high. Price pulls back. Candle closes. Price pulls back even more. Price stops (between 38% and 61% fib). Price reverses. Now for price to make a new high: Price must pass through open of current candle Price must retrace back to high If price continues a new high is made. What makes entering at 1) risking than at 3)? Asking in a nice way.
Are we speaking 04-00 break?
we have a candle with a High & Low, if we have a trigger it has a very high chance of making +10.
It doesn't matter if it retraces or not it will get +10...
If it does retrace after trigger you can enter a trade and gain extra points and even have a lower stop loss if used.
You can even have 2 trades, a break entry and a break reverse entry...
a high and low can actually act as support/resistance but lets forget all of that..
A 04-00 candle with a modest range can be traded easily and simple just forget fibs etc
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #10,908
  • Sep 11, 2016 2:57pm Sep 11, 2016 2:57pm
speaking in general.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #10,909
  • Sep 11, 2016 5:30pm Sep 11, 2016 5:30pm
It's not about the technicality of price going up and down, fibs, pull backs, reversals, backtesting, yadayada. That's for punters. Smoke and mirrors.
It's about collecting an inventory of positions with a view to offload them "asap" to those punters according to plan A and failing that, offloading them according to plan B, C or whatever.
Call it wholesale vs. retail. Find the places where punters are likely to be interested in your positions and voilà. That's where business can be conducted.
It takes courage to grow up and become who you really are - E.E. Cummings
  • #10,910
  • Sep 11, 2016 5:35pm Sep 11, 2016 5:35pm
Quoting PippyTheGrt
It's not about the technicality of price going up and down, fibs, pull backs, reversals, backtesting, yadayada. That's for punters. Smoke and mirrors. It's about collecting an inventory of positions with a view to offload them "asap" to those punters according to plan A and failing that, offloading them according to plan B, C or whatever. Call it wholesale vs. retail. Find the places where punters are likely to be interested in your positions and voil. That's where business can be conducted.
Understood.
Observing how price goes up and down along with how far it goes up and down can get you an edge.
Seems like Billytt's position is focus on the 4:00 break and nothing else.
Can't argue with simplicity or practicing the same kick 10,000 times.

Attached Image
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #10,911
  • Sep 11, 2016 5:38pm Sep 11, 2016 5:38pm
Quoting slowbrain
{quote} TooSlow Any backtest , or probability to give some substance about your assertion ? SB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TooSlow.png Size: 51 KB


The chart is the substance.
Trust your eyes.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #10,912
  • Sep 11, 2016 5:45pm Sep 11, 2016 5:45pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Understood. Observing how price goes up and down along with how far it goes up and down can get you an edge. Seems like Billytt's position is focus on the 4:00 break and nothing else. Can't argue with simplicity or practicing the same kick 10,000 times. {image}
Not at all sure if that is the case, as witnessed by him mentioning a) daily breaks, b) the following H4 (I think the 12:00) and perhaps other things that I haven't read about (yet).
It takes courage to grow up and become who you really are - E.E. Cummings
  • #10,913
  • Sep 11, 2016 5:47pm Sep 11, 2016 5:47pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} {image} The chart is the substance. Trust your eyes.
I suspect SB is referring to frequency distributions from the opens instead of the highs/lows. I know I would
It takes courage to grow up and become who you really are - E.E. Cummings
  • #10,914
  • Sep 11, 2016 6:15pm Sep 11, 2016 6:15pm
Hi all, I have had a fantastic night. I am not trading until after 08-00 Monday..
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #10,915
  • Sep 11, 2016 6:25pm Sep 11, 2016 6:25pm
The thread is called E/J Daily Break but has developed into other things.
I did not start a new thread because we had a small group of good people and we are still here..
E/J Daily Break has brilliant stats but some difficulty for others to trade. Cable is also good...
04-00 break is excellent on A/U and Cable and these are the main trades I do.
12-00 is also good to trade but mainly when correcting a bad trade as is daily inside bars..
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #10,916
  • Sep 11, 2016 6:46pm Sep 11, 2016 6:46pm
to anyone using technicals, I honestly think you will fail..
If a trigger goes up LONG IT and if down SHORT IT.
open any chart (DAILY) which I shall do in a minute and look at the little tails if the trade reverses. we look for 10
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hhh.PNG Size: 40 KB

E/J daily Chart, it would of been very similar with 4 -00 hour chart
on the above chart we had either 2 or 3 losses the rest all good. that is good strike rate. I am not speaking about correcting a bad trade. But can you see what I look for

edit, forget about the MA & EMA on chart, I put them there for my friend lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #10,917
  • Sep 11, 2016 7:46pm Sep 11, 2016 7:46pm
DEMO______DEMO _____________________DEMO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lllp.png Size: 14 KB

I told a lie, I actually found a demo on daughters account, they don't mean a thing but these could of been real trades. catch the trend with small outlay ..I deleted the original couple of trades starting with a couple of £££££ lol.

edit, those trades were from the 8th off a retrace lol DEMO, not real for the
Attached Image
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #10,918
  • Sep 11, 2016 9:35pm Sep 11, 2016 9:35pm
Quoting PippyTheGrt
{quote} I suspect SB is referring to frequency distributions from the opens instead of the highs/lows. I know I would
Those exist in another galaxy.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #10,919
  • Sep 11, 2016 10:28pm Sep 11, 2016 10:28pm
Hope you enjoy this picture of a "bird of paradise" flower. they are coming out now, Spring is here at last...!!!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bird-Of-Paradise-Flower-6.jpg Size: 1.1 MB
Onwards and upwards...
  • #10,920
  • Sep 12, 2016 1:33am Sep 12, 2016 1:33am
Quoting billytt
to anyone using technicals, I honestly think you will fail.. If a trigger goes up LONG IT and if down SHORT IT. open any chart (DAILY) which I shall do in a minute and look at the little tails if the trade reverses. we look for 10 {image} E/J daily Chart, it would of been very similar with 4 -00 hour chart on the above chart we had either 2 or 3 losses the rest all good. that is good strike rate. I am not speaking about correcting a bad trade. But can you see what I look for edit, forget about the MA & EMA on chart, I put them there for my friend...
Great example Billy.
Keep it simple pays - Look forward to more examples like the one posted ( Daily or four hour) especially four hour examples.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
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