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USD/RUB

  • #781
  • Sep 11, 2016 4:14am Sep 11, 2016 4:14am
Quoting arigoldman
Neutral on the pair.
and yes at these levels I am also neutral on the pair in the short term. I am of course invested on the short side because 1. Ultimately I think we will see some interesting downside, 2. I am making money overnight so I treat as an interest bearing bank account so up 1 ruble down 1 ruble it doesnt mean anything without changes in the oil or USD Index front.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #782
  • Sep 11, 2016 4:25am Sep 11, 2016 4:25am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Interesting thought. I am bearish on the pair as you can see from my posts and have made great money. For the pair to get to the 50-52 level we would need serious upside in oil. That should happen soon but at the moment, some dark forces (I wont elaborate), are keeping the oil subdued.
I banked some money on Friday as well while the price was rising. But yes, we are now going to the resistance line and I want to watch how the price reacts, to look for shorting possibility.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #783
  • Sep 11, 2016 4:31am Sep 11, 2016 4:31am
Quoting Igrok
Likely to drop to about 50-52 level before the end of the year.
Igrok, I read your thread and I now know where you are coming from. If your perspective on US elections is right, and I have to say it is not far fetched, then yeah next 3-4 months will be very interesting and sure 50-52 is possible although, if USD rises the way you are predicting, I most likely see USD/RUB staying around 60.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #784
  • Sep 11, 2016 4:34am Sep 11, 2016 4:34am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} I banked some money on Friday as well while the price was rising. But yes, we are now going to the resistance line and I want to watch how the price reacts, to look for shorting possibility. Best D.P.
I have to analyse everything again and come back to you. Didnt have the time till now but I will do it maybe tonight. In my mind nothing has changed. The strategy is short as long as the price of oil is so low, because there is huge upward potential for oil which will mean great downward potential on USD/RUB
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #785
  • Sep 11, 2016 11:24am Sep 11, 2016 11:24am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I have to analyse everything again and come back to you. Didnt have the time till now but I will do it maybe tonight. In my mind nothing has changed. The strategy is short as long as the price of oil is so low, because there is huge upward potential for oil which will mean great downward potential on USD/RUB
Yaeh I have still bearish bias as well, but looking for where to enter the market shortly.

Best
D.P.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-09-11_19-23-13.jpg Size: 400 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-09-11_19-23-38.jpg Size: 497 KB
Hunting High and Low
  • #786
  • Sep 11, 2016 1:36pm Sep 11, 2016 1:36pm
current consolidation is quite likely to be forming right in the middle of the corrective trend...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly RUB A0-FX.jpg Size: 71 KB
  • #787
  • Sep 11, 2016 2:08pm Sep 11, 2016 2:08pm
Quoting Igrok
current consolidation is quite likely to be forming right in the middle of the corrective trend... {image}
Yeah, the truth is out there... I want to believe

We can technically see the lower highs daily, so you might be right.
The target might be located at red line (on my last chart) or we might close the gap of 50,05-50,825.

Aaarh I need to find the proper place for short. there would be great to get in at the 55,5-55,6 for short.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #788
  • Sep 11, 2016 3:37pm Sep 11, 2016 3:37pm
RUB correlates quite well with the usd/cad... analyzing one you can trade the other...
  • #789
  • Sep 11, 2016 3:48pm Sep 11, 2016 3:48pm
Quoting Igrok
RUB correlates quite well with the usd/cad... analyzing one you can trade the other...
I have got it already...

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #790
  • Sep 11, 2016 5:59pm Sep 11, 2016 5:59pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} I have got it already... D.P.
looks like a bearish wedge to me...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11Daily CAD A0-FX.jpg Size: 80 KB
  • #791
  • Edited 7:42am Sep 12, 2016 6:17am | Edited 7:42am
Quoting Igrok
RUB correlates quite well with the usd/cad... analyzing one you can trade the other...
It is correct. Strongest correlation is to oil during the last 300 trading days ( correlation table some oil based currencies and other exotics attached including USD index and oil)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-09-12 (1).png Size: 80 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #792
  • Sep 12, 2016 8:09am Sep 12, 2016 8:09am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I have to analyse everything again and come back to you. Didnt have the time till now but I will do it maybe tonight. In my mind nothing has changed. The strategy is short as long as the price of oil is so low, because there is huge upward potential for oil which will mean great downward potential on USD/RUB
awaiting here

D.P.

Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} awaiting here D.P. {image}

4h chart
volume rising
breakdown confirmed

Best
D.P.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-09-12_16-08-46.jpg Size: 364 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-09-12_19-36-02.jpg Size: 115 KB
Hunting High and Low
  • #793
  • Edited 2:26pm Sep 12, 2016 2:11pm | Edited 2:26pm
LOOK AT THE DAILY FUTURES CHART

Technically we have as follows:

1/ We have already dissolved the support area of the latest two lows. There is no support here.
2/ Below we can see the hidden gap area that needs to be filled.
3/ Triangle is being formed and being completed.

Technically the price has to go lower this or next week

Best
D.P.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-09-12_22-02-35.jpg Size: 293 KB
Hunting High and Low
  • #794
  • Sep 13, 2016 2:03am Sep 13, 2016 2:03am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} awaiting here D.P. {quote} 4h chart volume rising breakdown confirmed Best D.P. {image} {image}
Agreed. Added yesterday shorts at 65.24 and waiting now for the drop. Minor consolidation expected today till 64.85 and then it will resume the downside
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #795
  • Sep 13, 2016 3:38pm Sep 13, 2016 3:38pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} Agreed. Added yesterday shorts at 65.24 and waiting now for the drop. Minor consolidation expected today till 64.85 and then it will resume the downside
it looks like some sort of a weird diamond... i'm not 100% sure about it, but if this is the case then, after the break of the lower border, the measured objective target points towards 42-43 area...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 22Weekly RUB A0-FX.jpg Size: 74 KB
  • #796
  • Edited 2:40am Sep 14, 2016 2:11am | Edited 2:40am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} it looks like some sort of a weird diamond... i'm not 100% sure about it, but if this is the case then, after the break of the lower border, the measured objective target points towards 42-43 area... {image}
interesting, thanks for sharing that. I havent considered that possibility. It overshot my targets for the upward move but it is still within limits so not really worried about. Anything below 65.29 does not bother me.

Igrok, how is the target determined in this case? In the diamond you described
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #797
  • Edited 5:28am Sep 14, 2016 4:55am | Edited 5:28am
Quoting manosk
{quote} interesting, thanks for sharing that. I havent considered that possibility. It overshot my targets for the upward move but it is still within limits so not really worried about. Anything below 65.29 does not bother me. Igrok, how is the target determined in this case? In the diamond you described
first, measure the length of the trend from the very top to the lowest point of diamond... the target will be same distance lower if to measure it from the diamonds top... in other words this diamond is going to be right in the middle of the trend...
  • #798
  • Sep 14, 2016 5:31am Sep 14, 2016 5:31am
btw here is an example of a similar pattern on the longer-term (weekly) crude oil chart....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Crude Oil weekly chart.png Size: 62 KB
  • #799
  • Sep 14, 2016 9:25am Sep 14, 2016 9:25am
We might see below 64 today.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #800
  • Sep 14, 2016 9:26am Sep 14, 2016 9:26am
Quoting Igrok
btw here is an example of a similar pattern on the longer-term (weekly) crude oil chart.... {image}
Ah thanks for that. I have to admit I dont understand it exactly but I will look into it. What you said is a good intro.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
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