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  • #143,041
  • Sep 8, 2016 3:00pm Sep 8, 2016 3:00pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} That flag is really something. Now it is back inside the flag with bearish engulfing. On daily it looks very bearish. hmm,
yup
  • #143,042
  • Sep 8, 2016 3:16pm Sep 8, 2016 3:16pm
Quoting sisse
....and more importantly monetary policy check ...same expectations confirmed more QE wide open for later this year....question time and we are done.. Btw, Watch-out for OIL having a runner [check] with NY ... sisse
Quoting sisse
. On the fundamental side. Low expectations ... Any other outcome is same all [check] ... --> On the technical side. Euro at key 1.128x. A dovish ECB will set and confirm the high and low (already done) of this Quarter. [in play for tomorrow]
Quote
....simple sharp and direct ride 1.132x[check]->xxxx to sit there for the FED Sep before killing all bulls for the year atxxxx

No surprises for the US session. For those in OIL a simple ride and now we have a 'close play' for those managing position/looking for new. On the FX board, no surprises in any of the majors with Euro leading the move after the ECB, Yen and Sterling holding as well as widely expected on the respective S and R.

For those holding shorts in euro (and for those in the mid term and short term iteration 19, 20) is finally trailing time after the ECB.

We are entering in 'fill or kill' for the swings on the remaining as there is no point in risking the 1.14xx handle any longer. For those tracking the iterations I hope there is no surprise why 1.132x [barely] held but held at the end....on the rest not much to do but same levels, same trades, same all.

Time to address some of the questions for the roll

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,043
  • Sep 8, 2016 3:25pm Sep 8, 2016 3:25pm
sisse,

For those holding shorts in euro (and for those in the mid term and short term iteration 19, 20) is finally trailing time after the ECB.

I am not sure I understand this. How would you trail it? How far away? Shorts from the TOP at .1320 are in profit and was a good move since we are in Neutral Outlook and you Sell from extremes to inside. But, those that are Short in iteration (like me) missed first target by 10 pips or so and now are out of the money. How would you trail out of the money?

Back to asking ignorant questions again....

And, one more....does the FLIP level change? Not sure if it only changes after Outlook changes on Short term Map...currently, (113X)and if so, do you find it on a Daily or Weekly chart?
  • #143,044
  • Sep 8, 2016 3:50pm Sep 8, 2016 3:50pm
[quote=sisse;9128185]{quote} {quote} {quote} No surprises for the US session. For those in OIL a simple ride and now we have a 'close play' for those managing position/looking for new.

Hi Sisse

Have I understood correctly, this weeks move finishing with todays run is reaching the extremes in neutral short/ mid term.... therefore we should be looking to short @ the extremes ( cheep tickets ) ...... its how I read my charts for OIL at the moment , I hope I am reading them right and understanding.

Regards

nutts
  • #143,045
  • Sep 8, 2016 4:07pm Sep 8, 2016 4:07pm
..and we rolled in the Euro, grinding the highs on rather interesting ECB conference. First CB that was loud [in silence] and clear about the future of free money.....

sisse
Quoting IMARICH1
.... But, those that are Short in iteration (like me) missed first target by 10 ???? pips or so..
Here for 19 and 20.
Quoting sisse
Iteration 19ARetrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators"​
​
Quote
Sell (Price Entry) -> LMT SELL 1.130x [check]-> TP1 => 1.120x [check] ... | STP => 1.138x
Sell (Stock Entry) -> LMT SELL 1.128x [check]-> TP1 => 1.118x [check] ... STP...

Quoting sisse
+++Iteration 20
-> LMT SELL 1.122x [check] -> TP1 => 1.112x | STP > 1.132x with inline
Why don't you update the chart we made step by step on that one ...here

Quoting sisse
{quote} + TUESDAY 23 AUGUST 22:00:02 GMT ON THE CLOSE EURO GIVES THE HEADS UP FOR CHEAP TICKETS ...
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,046
  • Edited 4:33pm Sep 8, 2016 4:22pm | Edited 4:33pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} To me it seems that the Jacson hole meeting was the one to mark the change in the monetary policy - seems they coordinated their stances - and ECB is the first one to officaly anounce it. The major signal from jackson hole was - monetary policy is near its limits and now its up to fiscal policy. ...
Yes indeed, I think you are spot on in this one. The few privilege ones who have access to the hall of power got the early bird, the rest of the mortals we get it on the official announcements as usual in these circumstances. We'll see how it plays out with the FED but given the reaction of markets since then all seem to be aligning to confirm that.


Quoting hoom
I still can't understand the flow that comes right after news although it is irrelevant to consider the low TFs in order to analyse the aftermath . ....x
To be honest it was a tricky one to follow live as all seemed to be going without much fuss until the QE question with that loooong silence replying 'we haven't even talk about QE'' ...that was very well calculated and the message was powerful and strong that we are officially shifting/calling to fiscal policies and macro divergences will enter in play without closing further QE and rates via risk.

I was (am) on the verge of calling a 'game changer' in itself but markets expectations weren't really aligned for that so lets see the next few days and especially FED confirming the same message before triggering a change.

Quoting nutts
.. I understood correctly, this weeks move finishing with todays run is reaching the extremes in neutral short/ mid term.... therefore we should be looking to short @ the extremes ( cheep tickets ) ......
We are not in the extremes in the mid term ... We have been pretty much chopping around in the middle all summer long....on the rest read above ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,047
  • Sep 8, 2016 4:49pm Sep 8, 2016 4:49pm
Quoting Sa7an
-> LMT SELL 1.122x [check] -> TP1 => 1.112x | STP > 1.132x with inline Pharm0r suntan ExForX goosebone clayjay Earleone nutts CommercialB NorthTrader...
And how did your E.G shorts go?
  • #143,048
  • Edited 10:35pm Sep 8, 2016 9:41pm | Edited 10:35pm
More on who is buying US Bonds

U.S. bond markets are still benefiting from an influx of Japanese buyers, even as the cost of hedging currency risk becomes more onerous. Japanese buyers purchased 5.74 trillion of offshore bonds in July, the second most in records going back to 2005, according to TD Securities calculations based on the most recent data from Japans Ministry of Finance. Of that buying, 4.72 trillion, or more than 80% involved U.S. sovereign debt, including Treasurys and agency mortgage-backed securities, the bank found. In August, 75% of the foreign buying was by Japanese life insurers, who concentrated their purchases in U.S. sovereign debt

Link
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=606234
  • #143,049
  • Sep 9, 2016 2:30am Sep 9, 2016 2:30am
Quoting ptoftangency
{quote} And how did your E.G shorts go?
Great thanks - took some off below 84 - looking to go back in again now

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #143,050
  • Edited 3:48am Sep 9, 2016 3:31am | Edited 3:48am
I read this back in June - thought it might be worth sharing.

As this process begins, we should begin to see the realization that the euro is in crisis; not the pound.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...sh-its-the-eu/
  • #143,051
  • Sep 9, 2016 5:45am Sep 9, 2016 5:45am
Quoting Sa7an
{quote} Hmmm {image}
This* is called: great entry point.

*: upthrust until 1.137xx
f(z)=z2+c
  • #143,052
  • Sep 9, 2016 7:18am Sep 9, 2016 7:18am
European Equities and Euro in particular starting to choke at the current highs. Things are changing across the board as it was expected for the autumn trading season and ECB yesterday serving as key benchmark both for Equities via QE and more importantly for the FX board.

NY coming with US equities starting to show a glimmer of life in what has been the flattest couple of months in over a decade (we are stuck in a <1.4 % range for nearly 2 months...). Euro looks eager to ignite Sept in the FX board with a very feeble bottom this week that wont hold a breach 1.124x with NY....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,053
  • Sep 9, 2016 7:28am Sep 9, 2016 7:28am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} That flag is really something. Now it is back inside the flag with bearish engulfing. On daily it looks very bearish. hmm,
I re-entered based on the chart posted here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post9128592

that rejection is something we like to see in the mofu world, gives 1.0838 a good chance...by gators words "greater than 75% chance" however; I never knew how he came up with those percentages
  • #143,054
  • Sep 9, 2016 7:32am Sep 9, 2016 7:32am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I re-entered based on the chart posted here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post9128592 that rejection is something we like to see in the mofu world, gives 1.0838 a good chance...by gators words "greater than 75% chance" however; I never knew how he came up with those percentages
I took it too from 1313 (take a look at similar chart 7 posts up from the one you linked) Couldn't ignore the tap on that lower mofu. Took half off at 1283 to pay for the stop.
  • #143,055
  • Sep 9, 2016 7:40am Sep 9, 2016 7:40am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I took it too from 1313 (take a look at similar chart 7 posts up from the one you linked) Couldn't ignore the tap on that lower mofu. Took half off at 1283 to pay for the stop.
oh haha, you beat me to the punch

sorry didn't bother to read......don't post in that thread much and 95% of it is irrelevant to me

good call imo, once again we are in the same boat
  • #143,056
  • Sep 9, 2016 7:48am Sep 9, 2016 7:48am
Following up @Pharm0r and @goosebone last conversation and since we didn't have any iteration this week I think is a good idea to keep wrapping up the last 2 iterations with the next TA point:

-> We have been discussing the 'flip' for a while now. Some get it some others don't but I think most have develop their own sense on the importance of having it in a map.

However we haven't talk much about the other lines in a map: Momentum lines/areas.

--> So to @Pharm0r and @goosebone (or to anybody following the iteration) I ask you in your charts/maps what would be the line/area where MOMENTUM will be trigger? Momentum defined as the place where is taken price should theoretically at least move pass v. fast and without chopping around, whipsawing or making shallower pulling back endlessly, etc

Defining the map, range and flip and the implication of the outlook on them is key but knowing when and where momentum (not talking about knee jerk reaction flows on reports) could be trigger may have a lot of value on how to manage risk and positions for some posters around ....


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,057
  • Sep 9, 2016 7:58am Sep 9, 2016 7:58am
Quoting sisse
Following up @Pharm0r and @goosebone last conversation and since we didn't have any iteration this week I think is a good idea to keep wrapping up the last 2 iterations with the next TA point: -> We have been discussion the 'flip' for a while now. Some get it some others don't but I think most have develop their own sense on the importance of having it in a map. However we haven't talk much about the other lines in a map: Momentum lines/areas. -->...
I'm an admittedly novice momentum trader....for me the R:R isn't there...perhaps because I'm unsure of where I'd like my stop to be. But, where I notice the momentum picking up, would be when the top/bottom of the range are taken out in one of two different ways

Type 1: All stops cleared by a higher high, small bounce in opposite direction then momentum as the resistance and stops are no longer there
Type 2: All stops eaten and volume overrunning entire resistance in one clean sweep (this I find to be the faster and more violent of the two, often caused by news)

I've included goosebone's chart for illustration, afterall- he posted it first
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #143,058
  • Sep 9, 2016 8:13am Sep 9, 2016 8:13am
Funny story concerning politics....

As most of you know I work for my local municipality (ie local government). I'm an engineer, and my bosses are both engineers- as a matter of fact you'd consider what we do to be engineering essential. That being said, we just got a new boss to oversee the entire division...a realtor...with no engineering background.

How does that happen you might say? Political connections and favors- the big kind. So now, for all intents and purposes, an engineering department for a local government, is being run by a realtor.
  • #143,059
  • Sep 9, 2016 8:26am Sep 9, 2016 8:26am
Quoting Pharm0r
....So now, for all intents and purposes, an engineering department for a local government, is being run by a realtor.
On the momentum lets leave it open till later for other comments.

....on the rest, not surprised atall but same happens everywhere.You will be surprised how many 'rich daddy' boys end up in the highest positions in business and politics without the slightest clue, experience, skills or education for the job....

Prolly less notorious in countries wih more social mobility between classes like the US but in other rich countries like the UK is scary the level of people you find in meetings sometimes..

.....NY to open. Gl today.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,060
  • Sep 9, 2016 8:30am Sep 9, 2016 8:30am
Good to back in the boat with ya P. (and I think the original quote was "The Realtors shall inherit the earth." not the meek).

I like the area that is defined by the two arrows that pharmor put on the chart there as a momentum area. I too admit to being pretty new to the idea. I have thought it to be the place on the map or in flow where two things happen. Those holding on the wrong side give up and cover, and those waiting for confirmation of this direction enter, forming one or more large body candles with very minimal retrace. I might look at the line I've got labeled "Quarter" for that after the mid area has been satisfied when using the fib lines there. But when looking at the maps we make here with just range and flip, I wouldn't be real sure where to put it before the fact. So far for me it's been more like the SCOTUS definition of pornography: I can't tell you what it is, but I know it when I see it.
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