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  • #143,021
  • Sep 8, 2016 8:29am Sep 8, 2016 8:29am
Quoting hoom
equities would suffer from this no QE comments
hmm, wonder if the final short term extension is dead now.

but since sisse wrote: "In equities and commodities any outcome bar an awful panicky ECB (not expected at all) will be good (good and bad news is good news)."

I guess NY is gonna play the bull side again one more time since whis short term extension may turn into a short and mid term top (long term too?).
  • #143,022
  • Sep 8, 2016 8:30am Sep 8, 2016 8:30am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} He said almost everything will remain on the downside .... no comments for QE .... same old story .... macro nos. / inflation on the downside .... trying to avoid the major points .... with simple explanation that didnt even discussed it yet .... than for the whole day what are they discussing .... he just avoided almost everything .... it really gets me confused but i will remain on the short side in TA wise
I'm not very well educated on this matters but i try my guess (please correct me if wrong):

I think he is basically telling "not so more easy and unconditionally free money" because this alone will work no more, no matter what are the numbers this is becoming just free food for big speculators and it's not hitting the intended target so he's calling at the army once more governments and istitutions to have their homework (fiscal policy) done
  • #143,023
  • Sep 8, 2016 8:34am Sep 8, 2016 8:34am
---> only update from the conference:

-> Reconfirming mid term outlook in Euro in Neutral

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,024
  • Sep 8, 2016 8:38am Sep 8, 2016 8:38am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I am not sure how are you reading it. It was VERY clear. You don't need to say something out loud to spell it out. It was the first official recognition from a major CB that QE and free money have reached its peak...and that is a POWERFUL message to get from the conference. On top it send clear signals that the policy is working. Finally he clearly stated that if things go choppy via risk or slow down they haven't close the door for QE.... Get ready for fiscal policy talk instead of monetary ...this is major AND SUPER CLEAR conference announcement...
To me it seems that the Jacson hole meeting was the one to mark the change in the monetary policy - seems they coordinated their stances - and ECB is the first one to officaly anounce it. The major signal from jackson hole was - monetary policy is near its limits and now its up to fiscal policy. And today - draghi was always talking about the structural reforms and fiscal front - but never is strongly + monetary expansion has always been upfront until today.
  • #143,025
  • Sep 8, 2016 9:07am Sep 8, 2016 9:07am
Quoting chester123
{quote} hmm, wonder if the final short term extension is dead now. but since sisse wrote: "In equities and commodities any outcome bar an awful panicky ECB (not expected at all) will be good (good and bad news is good news)." I guess NY is gonna play the bull side again one more time since whis short term extension may turn into a short and mid term top (long term too?).
If free money has reached its top, I think it's time to sell equities. The bull movement, in this case, might be considered as a trap. We are at the top of the range. I'm not confident this time that bad news is good news. will see!
  • #143,026
  • Sep 8, 2016 9:18am Sep 8, 2016 9:18am
Make more headache to Me, but so far good news is good news for USD and Draghi bad news was confirmed for Euro (EUR/USD) as bad news.

Like Sisse said this quoting Draghi ...They haven't close the door for QE...

More money in circulation -----> Cheaper Currency.

fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #143,027
  • Sep 8, 2016 9:22am Sep 8, 2016 9:22am
All of my trades are cleared other than a short on GU @ 1.3407

Cleared EU once I saw the flag

Quoting Pharm0r
EU forming H4 flag fyi, indicative of higher
  • #143,028
  • Sep 8, 2016 9:27am Sep 8, 2016 9:27am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} If free money has reached its top, I think it's time to sell equities. The bull movement, in this case, might be considered as a trap. We are at the top of the range. I'm not confident this time that bad news is good news. will see!
If there is one index in Europe riding the free money train is the DAX. Germany has been the main beneficiary of the QE so it is a good point to start for shorting EU equities.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #143,029
  • Sep 8, 2016 9:35am Sep 8, 2016 9:35am
Quoting manosk
{quote} If there is one index in Europe riding the free money train is the DAX. Germany has been the main beneficiary of the QE so it is a good point to start for shorting EU equities.
I agree. Here is my short term map. The problem is the timing to sell short and mid term. It seems to me that till FED (with light calendar) there is very nice room for the extension. Short term its stil buy. Too bad ECB did not help it - and I stil tthink it did not kill it.
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  • #143,030
  • Sep 8, 2016 9:39am Sep 8, 2016 9:39am
Just out of interest: this is my mid term map - we are up to extreme. Mid term is strong sell - so in my view. There is soongonna be point to enter short and mid term.

Unclear variable is also the problem with FED and hikes after last numbers. But well see so far for me too early to enter.
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  • #143,031
  • Sep 8, 2016 9:40am Sep 8, 2016 9:40am
Quoting change
{quote} I'm not very well educated on this matters but i try my guess (please correct me if wrong): I think he is basically telling "not so more easy and unconditionally free money" because this alone will work no more, no matter what are the numbers this is becoming just free food for big speculators and it's not hitting the intended target so he's calling at the army once more governments and istitutions to have their homework (fiscal policy) done
You are quite right ... But to be Frank I am also a ta trader still trying to grasp knowledge from sisse ... For the free money big bastards always makes money whether the CB brings the government into play ... Or any fiscal policy ... On the ta wise nothing changed same levels same play ... For fa wise I request you to follow sisse chester123 imarich and many others... This thread is one of the most valuable on the internet...
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,032
  • Sep 8, 2016 9:43am Sep 8, 2016 9:43am
even if midterm isnt strong sell (sisse has neutral) in extremes we trade to the inside

agreed, there is no trade here for me until mid-september around PPI

GU is the better trade for now
  • #143,033
  • Sep 8, 2016 9:55am Sep 8, 2016 9:55am
Quoting chester123
Just out of interest: this is my mid term map - we are up to extreme. Mid term is strong sell - so in my view. There is soon gonna be point to enter short and mid term. Unclear variable is also the problem with FED and hikes after last numbers. But well see so far for me too early to enter. {image}
I agree with you, it is tough to pick the moment to enter short. It seems like every time the index is about to drop big money comes in to support it. But we see a lot of volatility lately, as you see today the range from 10780 - 10565... This to me indicates that we are close to something big. I dont dispute the possibility of an upward extension. It could happen but I have the feeling that the Fed is going to hike rates and then we will experience a nice drop in the main indices. In such case the ones that have been abusing the pig will be smacked the most (S&P 500 and DAX and maybe FTSE...although with Brexit euphoria, this index is riding other animals).
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #143,034
  • Sep 8, 2016 9:56am Sep 8, 2016 9:56am
Quoting Pharm0r
even if midterm isnt strong sell (sisse has neutral) in extremes we trade to the inside agreed, there is no trade here for me until mid-september around PPI GU is the better trade for now
For my thoughts ... Today we just opened all the flood gates ... Fed will do the rest ... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,035
  • Sep 8, 2016 9:59am Sep 8, 2016 9:59am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} For my thoughts ... Today we just opened all the flood gates ... Fed will do the rest ...Â
I agree
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #143,036
  • Sep 8, 2016 10:16am Sep 8, 2016 10:16am
OIL is running up which might help equities for the extension. My target in oil is $48.8.
  • #143,037
  • Edited 11:13am Sep 8, 2016 10:26am | Edited 11:13am
In neutral outlook you sell from the extremes to the inside. We are in Neutral outlook for short and mid term (which frustrates me); but, if you were long, I would have chosen to sell at the extreme to TP at .120X and closed LONGS prior to ECB. However, I am not in the LONGS. I am still confused in all this FA. Part of it make sense and part does not. Does Draghi being HAWKISH help or hurt the Euro? Not saying more QE but not saying there would not be more QE either is Hawkish? I would think HAWKISH works against my SHORTS. Monetary switching to Fiscal. Man, I have alot to learn here. Way out of my league for the most part.

US still raised rates, better economy and may raise again. EU not doing well in economy and slower with possible recession along with rates at 0% WITH POSSIBLE MORE QE, so this would leave me to think that DOLLAR stronger and EU weaker; but, we are not seeing that. It appears bastards are just focused on whether FED hikes or not in Sept and not whether one economy is stronger or has higher interest rates.

I thought picking the SELL on the iteration was a great choice and we got within 10 or so pips of the target to see price leave to explore the .132X area. In retrospect, i am seeing a theme here where I would scale out in Neutral Outlook environment when within 80% of target and let the rest run for capital management purposes.
  • #143,038
  • Sep 8, 2016 10:35am Sep 8, 2016 10:35am
Quoting IMARICH1
In retrospect, i am seeing a theme here where I would scale out in Neutral Outlook environment when within 80% of target and let the rest run for capital management purposes.
  • #143,039
  • Edited 10:02pm Sep 8, 2016 11:37am | Edited 10:02pm
I still can't understand the flow that comes right after news [Knee jerk reaction , clearing soft hands ,expansion of a normal distribution...] although it is irrelevant to

consider the low TFs in order to analyse the aftermath .

In this case for exemple, EURO demand before ECB seemed to be a flow from leveraged accounts so not sustainable. Draghi said that monetary policy is working . Now TA

wise outlook is neutral mid term , FOMC is Sept 21 , so what should be the short term outlook ? I have support at 1.122x which suggests that sell TP from Sisse iteration

IMO is unreachable by a couple dozen pips . In this case the reverso play for short term is LMT buy 1.124x TP1 1.134x TP2 1.140x // SL 1.120x
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,040
  • Sep 8, 2016 2:36pm Sep 8, 2016 2:36pm
Quoting Pharm0r
All of my trades are cleared other than a short on GU @ 1.3407 Cleared EU once I saw the flag {quote}
That flag is really something. Now it is back inside the flag with bearish engulfing. On daily it looks very bearish. hmm,
Trading in the shadow of SM
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