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AUD/USD

  • #98,861
  • Sep 6, 2016 7:58pm Sep 6, 2016 7:58pm
SELL now @ 76770
STOP LOSS: 76900
TAKE PROFIT: 76510


Profit: 2:1 very comfortably. More if you understand how to compound into such a set up.
  • #98,862
  • Sep 6, 2016 8:09pm Sep 6, 2016 8:09pm
Careful at 76590 if the reaction too strong exit.
  • #98,863
  • Sep 6, 2016 8:21pm Sep 6, 2016 8:21pm
exit now reaction strong at 59, news in10m
would've made .5:1
  • #98,864
  • Edited 1:04am Sep 7, 2016 12:40am | Edited 1:04am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Expecting near term higher highs & lows - moved SL higher. {image}
Moved SL above entries, setup for adding positions on dip or retracement.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #98,865
  • Sep 7, 2016 9:11pm Sep 7, 2016 9:11pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.png Size: 276 KB

AUDUSD Monthly Timeframe Pin Bar..
Price is Slightly above (50-61.8)% Fibo..
Possible for a Sell setup..
TP1@ 7200
TP2@ 7000
  • #98,866
  • Sep 7, 2016 9:26pm Sep 7, 2016 9:26pm
Quoting Barca
{image} AUDUSD Monthly Timeframe Pin Bar.. Price is Slightly above (50-61.8)% Fibo.. Possible for a Sell setup.. TP1@ 7200 TP2@ 7000
There is a double rejection (tweezertop) on the weekly also. But atm not sure how to take the comdols price seems to be going against both technicals and fundamentals for a while now (Possibly due to uncertainty with the feds)., but all points to short.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,867
  • Sep 7, 2016 9:38pm Sep 7, 2016 9:38pm
I am staying cautious to short this pair. It rallied just when it indicated a drop on the previous high. Need to wait for further confirmation: a double bear on D1 with crossed stochs.
50% right - 50% wrong
  • #98,868
  • Sep 8, 2016 1:55am Sep 8, 2016 1:55am
Hello guys - here's an update of my positions on this pair. It took a few days but the market has now filled all my buy stop orders. Sitting on my hands now and letting it run , hopefully in the direction I want it to go, i.e north

EDIT: it's a 4H chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #98,869
  • Sep 8, 2016 5:25am Sep 8, 2016 5:25am
Hi Guys,

First time poster...been trading the AUD/USD for a while and have been doing well since today on 20K loss through bad judgement and greed and not sticking to my plan.

Seems the AUD is smashing everything and through research i cant see any real reason for the AUD to jump so much...
  • #98,870
  • Sep 8, 2016 6:15am Sep 8, 2016 6:15am
The price will move down to the point of 0.77058. Or continue to test resistance at 0.77328. I would start to sell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #98,871
  • Sep 8, 2016 6:36am Sep 8, 2016 6:36am
I also think once the momentum shifts you will see a big change in the AUD dropping.
  • #98,872
  • Sep 8, 2016 10:06am Sep 8, 2016 10:06am
what a waste i didn't hold my long from 7624 yesterday, closed it at 7680.
Today:
Bought @ 7670, TP @ 7722 .. switched to Sold @7722, TP @ 7670 - that was a lucky quick one actually. didn't expect it to fall in just 30mins.
Long @ 7675, TP 7690. Step by step does it, need to see more confidence in the uptrend before i hold it longer or re-buy at that level again, otherwise buying at the 7670-80 zone. Note that if it closes above 7700, it'll be the first time in a long time. None of the August highs resulted in a close above 7700 as far as i remember.

At face value, fundamental figures are pointing upwards still (i.e. chinese data - OK, aussie trade - OK, US data - nothing new). the next move downward move should really either be brought about by Fed hawkish speak. otherwise, until then @Zakhar13's chart shows the uptrend and i expect this to remain intact.

good luck guys!
  • #98,873
  • Sep 8, 2016 12:32pm Sep 8, 2016 12:32pm
omg, i got lucky the 2nd time today that my TP was nicely hit at 7690 before it crashed back down. counting my lucky stars today...seriously, maybe 1% of my trading days go this way.
but anyway a horrible amount of USD buying across the board the past few hours. the long upper wick on the bearish candle today may give pause for thought, but i'm not going to let myself be blinded by candles. if there's indeed an emerging bearish bias, that should show in the form of either consolidation tomorrow followed by more losses immediately on monday...... on the contrary, if we get back above quickly again then i think it's pretty clear where the bias is.
  • #98,874
  • Sep 8, 2016 12:45pm Sep 8, 2016 12:45pm
I got lucky too, 5 days waiting the price to down, while it was inincreased these past few days.. Lucky I'm short it double from 7724, and just close all of it at 7644, took me to a nice green pips.

Should be OK for these week, will check on tomorrow Asia price.
  • #98,875
  • Sep 8, 2016 5:54pm Sep 8, 2016 5:54pm
Daily trend respected to the pip.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,876
  • Sep 8, 2016 6:16pm Sep 8, 2016 6:16pm
Quoting ell3
omg, i got lucky the 2nd time today that my TP was nicely hit at 7690 before it crashed back down. counting my lucky stars today...seriously, maybe 1% of my trading days go this way. but anyway a horrible amount of USD buying across the board the past few hours. the long upper wick on the bearish candle today may give pause for thought, but i'm not going to let myself be blinded by candles. if there's indeed an emerging bearish bias, that should show in the form of either consolidation tomorrow followed by more losses immediately on monday.........

The USD bounced up from daily T/L in last 24 hours. This turned A/U back from highs, as it has done to all other USD pairs. USD may retest that support short term, but the bounce shows strength which may limit further rises in AUD. Although a US rate rise in September seems highly unlikely, the job market in the US remains firm, and prolonged sell off of USD seems very unlikely. Paul Daemon recently posted chart also showing approach to this TL, which is all important to market sentiment. I closed my AU shorts this morning, took a small long entry but will not expect much from it. However, I have modified my outlook for Australia's economy from recent negative bias. The mining industry here is showing signs of recovery, with signs of more jobs becoming available, and recent improvements to productivity in the industry supporting a recovery. The coal price has risen from recent lows, and with iron ore price rises preceding the rise of coal prices, the influential mining segment of the economy looks set to improve near term GDP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #98,877
  • Sep 8, 2016 11:47pm Sep 8, 2016 11:47pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} The USD bounced up from daily T/L in last 24 hours. This turned A/U back from highs, as it has done to all other USD pairs. USD may retest that support short term, but the bounce shows strength which may limit further rises in AUD. Although a US rate rise in September seems highly unlikely, the job market in the US remains firm, and prolonged sell off of USD seems very unlikely. {image}
well analyzed. yes, which is where the topside trendline comes into play. i bought at 7740, no real expectations for this one although the first target should be around 7690-7700ish which is the underside of the ascending trendline for the week. after that it's back to the topside trendline where i will definitely close my long ahead of it. will have a buy order above that trendline in case it finally breaks - in which case it may run up quite fast to the april high @ 7834.
the stars seem to have aligned for a prolonged 75-77c range for the AUD.
  • #98,878
  • Sep 9, 2016 1:02am Sep 9, 2016 1:02am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} The USD bounced up from daily T/L in last 24 hours. This turned A/U back from highs, as it has done to all other USD pairs. USD may retest that support short term, but the bounce shows strength which may limit further rises in AUD. Although a US rate rise in September seems highly unlikely, the job market in the US remains firm, and prolonged sell off of USD seems very unlikely. Paul Daemon recently posted chart also showing approach to this TL, which is all important to market sentiment. I closed my AU shorts this morning, took a small...
Agree about the mining (specifically iron ore) holding the AUD higher that RBA would like.

Everyday I google Iron Ore Spot price, look at the sentiment from the Dalian iron ore futures, and that determines the direction of the AUD. Has been on point since March.

Quote
"There were also large declines recorded in coking coal and rebar futures, hinting that the recent price action has been driven by deteriorating sentiment towards the outlook for steel prices."
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/ir...ng-weak-2016-9

Place your bets on which way this chart will go - the AUD will follow.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #98,879
  • Sep 9, 2016 4:20am Sep 9, 2016 4:20am
Price attacked the line of resistance and broke through it. Now the price moves down to the point of 0.75980 . Or move up to the point of 0.75335 .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #98,880
  • Sep 9, 2016 11:53am Sep 9, 2016 11:53am
Currently the weekly candle does not look very good for AUD bulls. I'm expecting more downside next week.
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