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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #55,501
  • Edited 4:05pm Sep 5, 2016 3:52pm | Edited 4:05pm
so funny.
I long time no fuck someone like an idiot already.
He keeps coming back for more. must be total moron.

this chap has really no backbone.
worst than a snake. Am very sure , this is a criminal.
just note and up the security.

regards
  • #55,502
  • Edited 8:47pm Sep 5, 2016 8:30pm | Edited 8:47pm
Quoting fti
so funny. I long time no fuck someone like an idiot already. He keeps coming back for more. must be total moron. this chap has really no backbone. worst than a snake. Am very sure , this is a criminal. just note and up the security. regards
hahahaha, i was anticipating your "I hope you see the light at the tunnel one day, but beware, it might be the lights of a train instead"
The "if i gave you a breast, you still have to suck" one was very good though. LOL

Take it easy my friend, I think we here are all well aware of such snake oil sellers.. No worries

Inserted Video



Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,503
  • Sep 5, 2016 10:33pm Sep 5, 2016 10:33pm
hmm, i have been thinking, if one was caught out of position like nick leeson, besides credit collar to stop bleed what can i do? well, i can use ro3k to spread the nature of the position out and use the correlation to mount counter offensive. so a combination of ro3k and option spreading can possibly turn a crisis situation into oppprtunity. i should explore this more so if crisis strike i can implement damage control, and protect book and counter attack.
  • #55,504
  • Sep 6, 2016 1:08am Sep 6, 2016 1:08am
Quoting fti
so funny. I long time no fuck someone like an idiot already. He keeps coming back for more. must be total moron. this chap has really no backbone. worst than a snake. Am very sure , this is a criminal. just note and up the security. regards
How are you old man?? Long time no see.
Happy to see you alive and kicking....... kicking mostly.

You are one good inspiration. An old one.

  • #55,505
  • Sep 6, 2016 2:06am Sep 6, 2016 2:06am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} hahahaha, i was anticipating your "I hope you see the light at the tunnel one day, but beware, it might be the lights of a train instead" The "if i gave you a breast, you still have to suck" one was very good though. LOL Take it easy my friend, I think we here are all well aware of such snake oil sellers.. No worries https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGCMBvQOCRY Rgds
noted.

I believe many friends here.
They have good sight know the snakeoil types.
But there is always the newbie coming here for some insights.
Its these newbies i am worried about.

The snakeoil man is very smooth, trying to implant some similarities and subtly implanting his shit along with the thread.
I have to wait forexfactory moderators wise up to his attempt and deal with him.

For the mean time i will spar him until he's on the ground.anyone wants kick him can join in.

regards
  • #55,506
  • Edited 2:23am Sep 6, 2016 2:08am | Edited 2:23am
Quoting TooSlow
Over 50,000 posts before the steps are listed?You have got to be joking
Ahh so we playing the spy game.... which type are you then?

Inserted Video
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,507
  • Sep 6, 2016 2:49am Sep 6, 2016 2:49am
From my archive. A reminder... Don't fight the tape.
Attached Image
  • #55,508
  • Sep 6, 2016 3:03am Sep 6, 2016 3:03am
Quoting CookieMonsta
hmm, i have been thinking, if one was caught out of position like nick leeson, besides credit collar to stop bleed what can i do? well, i can use ro3k to spread the nature of the position out and use the correlation to mount counter offensive. so a combination of ro3k and option spreading can possibly turn a crisis situation into oppprtunity. i should explore this more so if crisis strike i can implement damage control, and protect book and counter attack.
ahhhh, therein is the lesson.Nic is not a bad trader, just a man caught in a situation.A situation that has only 1 exit.Its not called a strangle for nothing.The only way out is to cut the dang loss.In fact he only loss 300 mio on that fateful day.But because the position was not deal with appropraitely.When the cros saw the blood it quickly escalated to 1.4 bio.If you was nic you would be fried too.There is no such thing as damage control by counter attack.When one is doing damage control, BE/small gain is best possible outcome.Attack when weak is big mistake.Thats was what he did.he defended the positions, tried make it too big to fail.unfortunately he was not big enough, no one is. we can be foolish and try.live and learn.limits my friend, LIMITS.KNOW YOURSELF. know your limits.something you start and if you not know your limits,then an easy situation can become impossible handle.esp if you leveraged to your chin. desperately.regardshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oon-0S_KpLg
  • #55,509
  • Edited 3:28am Sep 6, 2016 3:16am | Edited 3:28am
Quoting fti
{quote} ahhhh, therein is the lesson.Nic is not a bad trader, just a man caught in a situation.A situation that has only 1 exit.Its not called a strangle for nothing.The only way out is to cut the dang loss.In fact he only loss 300 mio on that fateful day.But because the position was not deal with appropraitely.When the cros saw the blood it quickly escalated to 1.4 bio.If you was nic you would be fried too.There is no such thing as damage control by counter attack.When one is doing damage control, BE/small gain is best possible outcome.Attack...
yep, i calculated once if i traded no leverage, i might end up using 10x leverage to recover position spreading into long straddle to ride the volatility and stay inline with momentum then use spot to recover the premium paid. so cutting losses might be the easier way out.

so i was trying to calculate before hand and simulate in my mind if a scenario like this happened, how much more capitalization might be needed, so i can keep reserve troops for such uses. say my account is maybe 10k, i would only be trading 10k worth, when problems happen, 100k reserve is on standby to handle it, its there just for this, may not be as optimized for normal conditions but once can handle such circumstances well, ants work plus compounding can make a stable compounding account
  • #55,510
  • Edited 3:41am Sep 6, 2016 3:28am | Edited 3:41am
Quoting fti
{quote} ahhhh, therein is the lesson.Nic is not a bad trader, just a man caught in a situation.A situation that has only 1 exit.Its not called a strangle for nothing.The only way out is to cut the dang loss.In fact he only loss 300 mio on that fateful day.But because the position was not deal with appropraitely.When the cros saw the blood it quickly escalated to 1.4 bio.If you was nic you would be fried too.There is no such thing as damage control by counter attack.When one is doing damage control, BE/small gain is best possible outcome.Attack...
I think this is hard lesson to know what to do when truly caught out........ we can cut (big guns must surely be cut for mind and book as we never want them in trouble) or I can go back with trend but how far has trend moved already and is it showing signs of thrust weakness with stronger pullbacks for rescue op or is there sth ahead where it may react my way eg top of channel or BRN or whatever it reacted to before - so I can do fast rescue against trend - guess we need good fast in/out skills to attempt anything against a trend (we may not get the opportunity if reaction too weak) and NEVER let it run against us if rescue bad. He had bad news event and was nicely handing money to the bears so assuming it will come our way eventually is not a good idea unless no end to wealth.

I think easy to get caught out big if peeps trapped predicting trend end.

Rescue needs lots experience and skill.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,511
  • Sep 6, 2016 3:31am Sep 6, 2016 3:31am
Yes, ... "a man caught in a situation."
I did my research many years ago...
I could be wrong... but I think this is the chart of the last trade.
W shape can be defeated...!!! In this case by the Kobe earthquake. Imagine that morning...!!!
Yes anything could happen. (And to the rogue traders, too... an earthquake!!!)
Cut, average?
Leeson attempted to recoup his losses by making a series of increasingly risky new trades (using a long-long future arbitrage),
betting on a rapid recovery. However, the recovery failed to materialise.
"I'm sorry"... he wrote.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Leeson - Nikkey Chart.JPG Size: 71 KB
  • #55,512
  • Sep 6, 2016 3:44am Sep 6, 2016 3:44am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} yep, i calculated once if i traded no leverage, i might end up using 10x leverage to recover position spreading into long straddle to ride the volatility and stay inline with momentum then use spot to recover the premium paid. so cutting losses might be the easier way out. so i was trying to calculate before hand and simulate in my mind if a scenario like this happened, how much more capitalization might be needed, so i can keep reserve troops for such uses. say my account is maybe 10k, i would only be trading 10k worth, when problems happen,...
you still not understand.
rule of thumb is no try what is out of your norm risk profile.
once it happens, square book down to managable.
even if your delta is neutral , if your sigma is not in control.
1 blip and you book is dead.
Is very difficult explain. You need learn first.
You are playing with stuff you not know how to manage.
You no gearing, doesn't mean you book cannot draw down 50%.
If you draw down 50%, you are finished.
stay at 3-5%var.safest is stay at 3x daily p&L.
regards
  • #55,513
  • Edited 4:02am Sep 6, 2016 3:48am | Edited 4:02am
Quoting fti
{quote} you still not understand. rule of thumb is no try what is out of your norm risk profile. once it happens, square book down to managable. even if your delta is neutral , if your sigma is not in control. 1 blip and you book is dead. Is very difficult explain. You need learn first. You are playing with stuff you not know how to manage. You no gearing, doesn't mean you book cannot draw down 50%. If you draw down 50%, you are finished. stay at 3-5%var.safest is stay at 3x daily p&L. regards
yep, thats why these calculation, if i cant understand in the simulation, and see the effects in a demo account, i wont be touching it with real money.

eh, i been working on keeping it within 1x daily p&l
  • #55,514
  • Edited 5:43am Sep 6, 2016 4:11am | Edited 5:43am
Quoting Jupiter
Yes, ... "a man caught in a situation." I did my research many years ago... I could be wrong... but I think this is the chart of the last trade. W shape can be defeated...!!! In this case by the Kobe earthquake. Imagine that morning...!!! Yes anything could happen. (And to the rogue traders, too... an earthquake!!!) Cut, average? Leeson attempted to recoup his losses by making a series of increasingly risky new trades (using a long-long future arbitrage), betting on a rapid recovery. However, the recovery failed to materialise. "I'm sorry"... he...
Wowsa interesting chart.

He had also gotten away with it once before so thought it would work again I think (from documentary). Just coz we got away with it once does not make it a generally good idea.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,515
  • Sep 6, 2016 5:41am Sep 6, 2016 5:41am
Quoting cuthbert
{quote} How are you old man?? Long time no see. Happy to see you alive and kicking....... kicking mostly. You are one good inspiration. An old one.
wah young man.audited any one lately.now have to depend on young men catch the naughtys hor. i help inspire you and you catch the naughtys, fair and square lor.regards
  • #55,516
  • Sep 6, 2016 6:02am Sep 6, 2016 6:02am
Quoting Jupiter
Yes, ... "a man caught in a situation." I did my research many years ago... I could be wrong... but I think this is the chart of the last trade. W shape can be defeated...!!! In this case by the Kobe earthquake. Imagine that morning...!!! Yes anything could happen. (And to the rogue traders, too... an earthquake!!!) Cut, average? Leeson attempted to recoup his losses by making a series of increasingly risky new trades (using a long-long future arbitrage), betting on a rapid recovery. However, the recovery failed to materialise. "I'm sorry"... he...
wah you still have the chart.
Those back testers will have a field day , figure it out.
So normal looking chart, behind it so much story. who would have known.
The smart kids from hindsight, they would ............ They could be so clever until their book is on the line.

Some learn the hard way.ai ya.
I can still rememeber. was thinking eeeer the earthquake, must be small scale. the market is so robust, then came the waves.
scared the shit out of me.

regards
  • #55,517
  • Edited 7:18am Sep 6, 2016 6:59am | Edited 7:18am
Interesting chart, isn't it?
To be precise, maybe my red line is shifted one day on the right...
And maybe the Options operations were more complex than what is public...
Anyway... Yes, if we examine figures closely....
The day of the earthquake, January 17, market suffered only minor losses (120 points of decline... so within the fluctuations range in a normal day...)
On the following Monday January 23... Nikkei dropped 1055 points. And Nick had to meet the margin requirements for the first time.
A second time on February 23 and 24...
The collapse of Barings was announced on the following Monday... February 27, 1995.

In any case, questions a Trader has to face are:
Have you got a clear, specific and defined Rule about "Trend Change"?
(In this case "the Change of Polarity" - Support becomes Resistance - was absolutely evident!)
Do you know the risk when you mount a Rescue against the Trend! (in whatever form: hedge, option, market...)
Do you know yourself and your scorpions/demons and the like?

Sir, I really love your old lessons.
Maybe we have to go back to them.
  • #55,518
  • Sep 6, 2016 7:33am Sep 6, 2016 7:33am
Quoting Jupiter
Interesting chart, isn't it? To be precise, maybe my red line is shifted one day on the right... And maybe the Options operations were more complex than what is public... Anyway... Yes, if we examine figures closely.... The day of the earthquake, January 17, market suffered only minor losses (120 points of decline... so within the fluctuations range in a normal day...) On the following Monday January 23... Nikkei dropped 1055 points. And Nick had to meet the margin requirements for the first time. A second time on February 23 and 24... The collapse...
Trend is higher lows for bull trend etc etc. We generally do not rescue against trend... I think that is fair to say and if we have plan to do it must be fast in/out no staying. Trend change is tricky as there are lots of different trends - if we are against the higher time frame trend then rescue against trend is probably really really bad idea. But also commonly I notice we have a trend break and then price goes back with trend to test the extremes before truly changing direction so rigidity in thinking is harder than just break of last swing and trend line and it is all over. There are lots of possibilities and we just need to be following (not leading) and managing for all our worth. Trend strength of legs is also very important - how weak/strong a trend leg is and the reaction legs to it - I guess as trend goes on the reactions are more likely to get stronger over time/distance. I like best when my time frames line up ie m5 is strong bull/bear and so is m15/h1. Time of day /RoK /news so lots going on.

The danger against strong trend is that it can continue for so long and the more it goes on the more we may be tempted to think it must be over soon so think staying with entrenched trend is safer generally.

What do you think?
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,519
  • Sep 6, 2016 1:00pm Sep 6, 2016 1:00pm
Sir, what I like the most in your commentary...
(and thanks for your memories)

"then came the waves." - Absolutely terrible... scary vision...
"who would have known." - A glimpse of humanity...
"i was blur like sotong." - It perfectly conveys the idea to me.
"sell him another 100!" - This is wonderful, great... I can imagine.
"he knows something we don't?" - The question comes so natural...
"ok now i can go on my sabbatical." - Yes. If you were on the right side!
  • #55,520
  • Sep 6, 2016 1:26pm Sep 6, 2016 1:26pm
Quoting Jupiter
Sir, what I like the most in your commentary... (and thanks for your memories) "then came the waves." - Absolutely terrible... scary vision... "who would have known." - A glimpse of humanity... "i was blur like sotong." - It perfectly conveys the idea to me. "sell him another 100!" - This is wonderful, great... I can imagine. "he knows something we don't?" - The question comes so natural... "ok now i can go on my sabbatical." - Yes. If you were on the right side!
i didn't know.
sold because osaka arbi line was down, and they came heavy on the outside line.

sold so that i could bid catch some ducks.trying recover some of the earlier loss.
But when mellon bid it up, i was like OMG he knows something. caught again.
But i guess osaka knew better, when i saw how they was all ON him.
He could had bailed out, but i guess he lost his cool.
All the while i thought was his big customer's bid.
The rest is history.

regards
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