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  • #142,921
  • Sep 5, 2016 3:56am Sep 5, 2016 3:56am
Ouch, Very strong Services PMI from UK.

Good work from Carney? . Cheap to buy products from UK at this rates and it helps the businesses?

We are at extremes for 4H still way to go on daily ( up to 1.37 imo )
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #142,922
  • Sep 5, 2016 4:06am Sep 5, 2016 4:06am
Good numbers from Europe especially in the UK. This pretty much will kill the session and the day.

Day will be over at the top of next hour in FX.

Quoting Earleone
Ouch, Very strong Services PMI from UK. Good work from Carney? . Cheap to buy products from UK at this rates and it helps the businesses? We are at extremes for 4H still way to go on daily ( up to 1.37 imo )
Indeed. Single handle the BOE bazzoka hammering the Pound paid is dividends to more than offset any potential short term flows. Now the hard part will start for the real deal for next year.

We mentioned back in June, the only public institution with a real contingency plan was the BOE in huge contrast with the talking heads in power....

Wont be much discussion on the 'traditional' best CB of this year award in the thread...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,923
  • Sep 5, 2016 4:32am Sep 5, 2016 4:32am
really I can not understand what happen for dark future of uk after Brexit!!!??
the Crash of century!!?
biggest fall to 1.24xx and then 1.15 ... !!?
  • #142,924
  • Sep 5, 2016 4:36am Sep 5, 2016 4:36am
Quoting Arshamv
really I can not understand what happen for dark future of uk after Brexit!!!?? the Crash of century!!? biggest fall to 1.24xx and then 1.15 ... !!?
As I see it . The BOE medicine work. They have the big interest to keep the Sterling weak as it helps the businesses in UK in the current situation. If Sterling strengthen to much , more medicine. What we see now is an retracement. Not an reversal.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #142,925
  • Sep 5, 2016 4:44am Sep 5, 2016 4:44am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} As I see it . The BOE medicine work. They have the big interest to keep the Sterling weak as it helps the businesses in UK in the current situation. If Sterling strengthen to much , more medicine. What we see now is an retracement. Not an reversal.
I hope so my dear friend👍
  • #142,926
  • Edited 6:46am Sep 5, 2016 6:17am | Edited 6:46am
Yawning session after the news. Without NY this look set until tomorrow ...

Quoting Arshamv
really I can not understand what happen for dark future of uk after Brexit!!!?? the Crash of century!!? biggest fall to 1.24xx and then 1.15 ... !!?
Don't be naive mate. The knee jerk reaction was done when BOE stepped in hours after the vote, after that nothing has happened in the summery weeks of Augusst because the process of leaving hasn't even started yet. What markets are tracking (and not only markets but anybody with more than 2 neurones) is the actual process and future of the single market.

--> The UK hasn't even officially announce when its going to leave (article 50 and all that), and the negotiations (thats where all will go upside down in my books) will take over a year or so .... what it means for trading and markets is keep a close eye on UK numbers in Q3, listen in the background all the talking heads insulting each other from both sides and only when Article 50 and all that is about to be announced start tracking and trading like a hawk the fireworks.

--> If things go upside down late Q4 / Q1 2017 (as is expected as for today), bet on destruction of the single market (Euro and Sterling as collateral damage), sharp correction in Equities via recession while hold bonds and Dollar as haven.

--> On the other side, if all goes smooth and in perfect happy cooperation (not expected so far) look for a choppy neutral markets for 2017 and bit beyond until te dust is settle and the impact in the UK and the EU is clearly shown in macro numbers.

In both cases, this is a major macro event that would have permanent and huge consequences (for good or bad is irrelevant for trading) so anything less that 2 or 3 Quarterly aggregate numbers will be 'irrelevant' for macro and statistical purposes. For timing mapping purposes, as soon as the UK announces article 50, start counting ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,927
  • Sep 5, 2016 7:06am Sep 5, 2016 7:06am
Quoting sisse
Yawning session after the news. Without NY this look set until tomorrow ... {quote} Don't be naive mate. The knee jerk reaction was done when BOE stepped in hours after the vote, after that nothing has happened in the summery weeks of Augusst because the process of leaving hasn't even started yet. What markets are tracking . sisse
🙏🙏🙏Thanks alot the Master
  • #142,928
  • Sep 5, 2016 7:22am Sep 5, 2016 7:22am
Just trying to get a better understanding regarding training maps, splitting positions and knowing when to take profit either full or partial?

Perhaps a questions for Sisse or anyone else who has an opinion.

Would it be sensible to still hold some shorts from pre-Brexit which would be deep in profit or would all positions have been closed?

Assuming your Map for GBPUSD was for further declines on the actual exit from the EU would you still hold shorts which you are looking to add to or would you have cleared all positions and be looking to start adding new ones.

Appreciate this is all subjective and personal.

Thanks
Andrew
  • #142,929
  • Sep 5, 2016 7:33am Sep 5, 2016 7:33am
what i see is before ecb we are not heading anywhere .... total neutral ....

but closely watching for position ....

For Sisse .... i dont find the chart where once you showed us all fed rate hike, ecb rates then the normalizing of fed hike .... can you please post it again ....

thankx in advance ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,930
  • Sep 5, 2016 9:04am Sep 5, 2016 9:04am
friday euro closed under 1.118x sending mixed signals mostly bearish , simple retest then reverse flow today , the real deal comes as we apprcach ECB, light USD calendar all week long , 1.112x holding the downside still shorts are in the money and few ticks from TP1 .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #142,931
  • Sep 5, 2016 9:57am Sep 5, 2016 9:57am
us bank holiday today, no reason to do or expect anything
  • #142,932
  • Sep 5, 2016 10:25am Sep 5, 2016 10:25am
Quoting Pharm0r
us bank holiday today, no reason to do or expect anything
Direct negative correlation to how 'liquid' my day becomes on illiquid market days Beers cold and charcoal is hot. Last blast of summer in full effect in the backyard.
  • #142,933
  • Sep 5, 2016 11:26am Sep 5, 2016 11:26am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Direct negative correlation to how 'liquid' my day becomes on illiquid market days Beers cold and charcoal is hot. Last blast of summer in full effect in the backyard.
haha- I went out to my local diner for some mimosas and they quit serving them.

last time Im going there
  • #142,934
  • Sep 5, 2016 1:08pm Sep 5, 2016 1:08pm
lazy day so just for fun. here is update of my previous G/U short term chart. even though I had doubts about the lvls so far working good. In my books we are still in G/U short term strong sell (may be wrong!! short term neutral would make sense too - correct me if you know. sometimes I loose track of the updates even though working hard not to!) in any case - sell or neutral - the play is the same in this case - from extreme to the flip - so I should fade extreme to the flip and bellow. may try if it attacks the extreme again. so far no reason for short term leg up to squeeze the mid term shorts.

P.S.: after sisse comments, I guess the next short and mid term on G/U comes from the USD side if FED hikes + keeps the path of mid term interest rate hike. In case of GBP - its stand by mode - neutral - short term unless we see some cracks in macro to translate into BOE action.
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  • #142,935
  • Sep 5, 2016 4:12pm Sep 5, 2016 4:12pm
Quoting chester123
lazy day so just for fun. here is update of my previous G/U short term chart. even though I had doubts about the lvls so far working good. In my books we are still in G/U short term strong sell (may be wrong!! short term neutral would make sense too - correct me if you know. sometimes I loose track of the updates even though working hard not to!) in any case - sell or neutral - the play is the same in this case - from extreme to the flip - so I should fade extreme to the flip and bellow. may try if it attacks the extreme again. so far no reason...
Hey Chester, nice and clear charts you're posting. I like how you indicate past and future news. I wouldn't call it a strong sell though. Rather a range with a good old sell signal. (trade from extreme to center). Still long term I also see sell. Strong sell would be later, when we know more about BOE/FED as indicated in your chart, but also in december. Wish you boatloads of pips.
  • #142,936
  • Sep 5, 2016 4:14pm Sep 5, 2016 4:14pm
Agreed, but since we are in a lull- the short term range should hold, tempted to sell myself
  • #142,937
  • Sep 6, 2016 3:29am Sep 6, 2016 3:29am
Quoting Sa7an
So what happened to Armageddon? I'm Short EG LOL But in the long run, Brexit will be a good thing for the UK, which means it will be a bad thing from the point of view of Brussels. http://www.safehaven.com/article/423...s-pack-of-lies
My ''expectation'' was that Brexit would be good for GBP and bad for EU - I'm still short - even BOE agreed, thats why they cut rates LOL

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  • #142,938
  • Sep 6, 2016 4:02am Sep 6, 2016 4:02am
With Iteration 20 can anyone explain why they traded the way they did.
Price wasn't going anywhere but you all jumped in(long and short) and you are only in bcoz price spiked up then down during nfp.
Everyone knows not to trade during these type events but you all jumped in anyway - Why?

Now we have more events this week (ECB/PMI) and both these are likely to increase volatility, so basically you are inthe lap of the gods with those trades - it's a crap shoot.

What was your expectation based on - nfp?? - that could've gone either way and you didn't know but you still traded anyway.

So now you are all in a trade waiting for your tp/sl to get hit - sounds like gambling to me

Having a ''map'' is fine but you need a plan too, what is your plan?

I have a map of the Sahara - my plan is to avoid it like the plague.

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  • #142,939
  • Sep 6, 2016 4:53am Sep 6, 2016 4:53am
basic plan, set TP and SL according to your map and wait. that's it.
  • #142,940
  • Sep 6, 2016 5:47am Sep 6, 2016 5:47am
Quoting Grinsakh
basic plan, set TP and SL according to your map and wait. that's it.
You missed the bit abt trading expectations - are your expectations still the same or did they change after nfp.
Will they change again this week??
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