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How to predict markets, Catch the moves at value

  • #181
  • Sep 3, 2016 12:48pm Sep 3, 2016 12:48pm
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} You will crash the server of a bucket shop good result excellent. Always will be some variation /loosing trades/correlations some out of sinc/ some get out of sinc. + some time you cant get em all filled /broker prob.....all good drawdown 0 outstanding .............net pips outstanding .................net loss insignificant.... 35.9% outstanding...............................
Thanks Dennis. I deleted all my posts and stepping aside to avoid distraction. Please continue with this journey.
Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #182
  • Sep 3, 2016 1:22pm Sep 3, 2016 1:22pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks Dennis. I deleted all my posts and stepping aside to avoid distraction. Please continue with this journey. Vee
no worries bro...............its will be beyond a lot of visual traders comprehension , but its important when we touch money management later on in this thread.

Always remember some Brokers cant fill all the slots, so make sure you can run on less and be in the green. I know you know this anyways....stay in touch, great results
  • #183
  • Sep 3, 2016 1:22pm Sep 3, 2016 1:22pm
I have one question/

Initial Balance is calculated from when to when? In terms of the sessions?
  • #184
  • Sep 3, 2016 2:06pm Sep 3, 2016 2:06pm
Quoting sinqua
I have one question/ Initial Balance is calculated from when to when? In terms of the sessions?
best to visualize it on the first hour of trade NY open, so 4 X 15 min Bars . I plot the IB from NY open/some traders plot each initial balance/NY/Asia/London....I dont

Your looking to see wide or Narrow range. (Plot the H and L of the hours range)

Your also looking to See the following!

Did the first bar open or close below or above the daily pivot point

Also did any of them close above or below daily pivot (Any of the 4)

Your also looking to see if the initial range is wide or Narrow (Wide is hard to break through but it can gap back - So potential entry on stops)

Narrow Range breaks easy

To be continued ........................
  • #185
  • Sep 3, 2016 2:17pm Sep 3, 2016 2:17pm
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} best to visualize it on the first hour of trade NY open, so 4 X 15 min Bars . I plot the IB from NY open/some traders plot each initial balance/NY/Asia/London....I dont Your looking to see wide or Narrow range. (Plot the H and L of the hours range) Your also looking to See the following! Did the first bar open or close below or above the daily pivot point Also did any of them close above or below daily pivot (Any of the 4) Your also looking to see if the initial range is wide or Narrow (Wide is hard to break through but it can gap back -...

Crystal clear now
  • #186
  • Sep 3, 2016 2:21pm Sep 3, 2016 2:21pm
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} best to visualize it on the first hour of trade NY open, so 4 X 15 min Bars . I plot the IB from NY open/some traders plot each initial balance/NY/Asia/London....I dont Your looking to see wide or Narrow range. (Plot the H and L of the hours range) Your also looking to See the following! Did the first bar open or close below or above the daily pivot point Also did any of them close above or below daily pivot (Any of the 4) Your also looking to see if the initial range is wide or Narrow (Wide is hard to break through but it can gap back -...
Initial Balance

The market's open can have a significant influence on the day's outcome. Specifically, the open in relation to range and value can help you forecast potential price behavior.

So on Initial Balance your also asking yourself which 3 ranges is the open into the relationship of yesterdays print/or the prior session. Again I only do this NY to NY. Some of my friends plot session by session. I dont I do day to day and more/rolling days but will cover that in time

So on Initial Balance your also asking yourself which 3 ranges is the open into the relationship of yesterdays print/or the prior session

The Three Opening Relationships

In Range and In Value

In Range and Out of Value

out of Range and Out of Value
  • #187
  • Sep 3, 2016 2:23pm Sep 3, 2016 2:23pm
Quoting sinqua
{quote} Crystal clear now

Lot to tie in yet on this is big/massive subject
  • #188
  • Edited 3:11pm Sep 3, 2016 2:31pm | Edited 3:11pm
First Open Relationship

In Range and In Value

The first type of opening relationship is an open that occurs within the prior day's price range and within the prior day's value area. An open that occurs in range and in value indicates market sentiment from the prior day has not changed and the market is currently in balance. When it occurs, the day's risk and opportunity are both low.

8 Time out of 10 You will end up with a quiet trading range session when the open is In range and In Value. So these lead to the following type of days:

A Typical Day
Trading Range Day
Sideways Day
Attached Image
  • #189
  • Edited 3:15pm Sep 3, 2016 2:44pm | Edited 3:15pm
Second Open Relationship

In Range and Out of Value

The second type of opening relationship is an open that occurs outside of the prior day's value area, but within the prior day's range. An open that occurs in range, but out of value, indicates that market sentiment has changed slightly, which offers more risk and opportunity.

However, in order for greater directional conviction to be seen, the market must break free from the prior day's range and accept new value.

If this happans Trend Day, Double- Distribution Trend Day, or Expanded Typical Day scenario will likely develop.

If it dont break prior days range and confirm acceptance then your back to square one , Typical Day, Trading Range Day, or Sideways Day
Attached Image
  • #190
  • Sep 3, 2016 2:48pm Sep 3, 2016 2:48pm
Dennis

Maybe I missed it, but can you state the platform and the indicators that you are using. Just want to see that in a single post. Many thanks
  • #191
  • Edited 3:17pm Sep 3, 2016 2:54pm | Edited 3:17pm
3rd Opening Relationship

Out of Range and Out of Value

Market opens out of the prior day's range and out of the prior day's value area. On this type of day, the market has opened O/O/B, Market sentiment has changed from the prior day.

So if the market does fall back within the prior day's range, then the market is wider and accepting new value which means range extension.

Big money like this and will enter the market. A Trend Day or Double-Distribution Trend Day usually arises from this relationship.

But if price drops back within the prior day's range, this means that responsive market participants were able to push price back toward prior value, (I.e They drove back price to protect there loosing orders) indicating a failed breakout attempt, thereby leading to a Typical Day, Expanded Typical Day, or Trading Range Day. If new value is rejected in strong fashion, a Trend Day in the opposite direction could also be seen.

An open that occurs out of range and value offers the most risk and opportunity.....
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  • #192
  • Sep 3, 2016 2:55pm Sep 3, 2016 2:55pm
I will follow-up with charts as we move forward
  • #193
  • Sep 3, 2016 3:05pm Sep 3, 2016 3:05pm
Quoting Dennis1468
Around 16 years ago one of my friends told me about trading and that captured my interest so I started on demos clean charts and did reasonably well for about a year then I opened my first account with 10 k. I figured thats it I will be self-employed and my life will be awesome. Things did not work out that way. My first mistake was that I thought I could be self- employed on a 10 k account. My second mistake was thinking that 1 lot is ok leverage on 10 k. Well it is not ok! Things went reasonably well for about 3 month of trading live then 1 lot...
This is massive guys, your on a massive journey now we are still packing bags have not put are feet on the tarmac yet, but we will and I am committed to share. I know 9 out of every 10 of you that are reading this stuff will fail. Thats why theirs never a net impact on the market.
  • #194
  • Edited 3:31pm Sep 3, 2016 3:16pm | Edited 3:31pm
Hi Dennis1468...

Since I'm located in Asia Pacific Region.... I tried to plot the IB range from the opening of the Sydney/Tokyo Session till closing of Sydney/Tokyo Session.

kindest regards...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 43 KB
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #195
  • Sep 3, 2016 3:20pm Sep 3, 2016 3:20pm
Quoting pakeha
Dennis Maybe I missed it, but can you state the platform and the indicators that you are using. Just want to see that in a single post. Many thanks
Pivot points/platform...............Think or Swim and Jforex
  • #196
  • Sep 3, 2016 3:26pm Sep 3, 2016 3:26pm
Quoting v2vboni
Hi Dennis1468... Since I'm located in Asia Pacific Region.... I tried to plot the IB range from the opening of the Sydney/Tokyo Session till closing of Sydney/Tokyo Session. kindest regards... {image}

Aww...............Good work! You nailed it....................Asia

..............................................................I am a pivot purist so I am committed to Liberty

I posted within the prior posts up the charts
  • #197
  • Sep 3, 2016 3:31pm Sep 3, 2016 3:31pm
Trading is a game of repetitions. Traders that can consistently trade the best repetitions are those that have mastered the markets

Your ability to determine which market participants are influencing price will allow you to judge the conviction and behavior of price movement"
  • #198
  • Sep 3, 2016 3:32pm Sep 3, 2016 3:32pm
Types of Professional Traders

"Your ability to determine which market participants are influencing price will allow you to judge the conviction and behavior of price movement"

1 Investors
2 Position Traders
3 Swing Traders
4 Day Traders
  • #199
  • Sep 3, 2016 3:33pm Sep 3, 2016 3:33pm
Hi Dennis thanks for taking time to explain to us how you trade. For those that don't trade on the swim and j platforms how can we calculate the CPR or what other options are available in order to have this indicator as well as others you use in trading.
I'm trying hard to digest some of your posts if i'm not successful then i'll ask questions.
  • #200
  • Sep 3, 2016 3:33pm Sep 3, 2016 3:33pm
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} Aww...............Good work! You nailed it....................Asia ..............................................................I am a pivot purist so I am committed to Liberty I posted within the prior posts up the charts

Good to know! Thanks D
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
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