How to predict markets, Catch the moves at value

definitely a awesome Quant............... he nailed it. I have friends that see the same things I do but they dont have anything but candles on charts. They see the same but paint it in a different way but trade it exactly the same. Postilion trade or swing trade or Day.

I can trade the CPR without using the indicator reference points. All i need is the market open sentiment IB and wait for break of initial range. I like to plot the big time pivots simply to know what the pros are doing and what the game play is on targets and short cover.

Stupid things i will ask my self when working things out may sound like this. Right looks like long looks good on UJ I may go long! whos long/ whos participating and driving this move, I need to know that as i need to be in on a move that has conviction. not in and reverse. If I see big move up from S! monthly I know big money, big position traders are driving this move with conviction. The pivs give me reasonable Targets. See the charts/Quants have back tested/I thinks its 90% accuracy pivs alone. Knowing how to use them thats another thing why we here. Thread predicting price...so far 100% hit rate

its alright all is welcome.............lots of truths in all the comments. logic is never what it seems.

Example logic would suggest that you go long in a up trend. Wisdom may say otherwise.

on another note - All the stuff we are talking about is how I trade and how I trade is pretty much how my mentors taught me to trade. I am just a product of programming by the markets and my wonderful mentors.

I have some spins on this stuff but all of it is not mine I do not own it.

Agree with you again 100% as there is a ton of correlations out there ....your on the level love it. Reading my posts not required for you as you dont need it. I love trading buy everything same time
1% up 1% down all day close 1% up buy again. EA does that in a wizz. lso singulars are good buy uj sell eu same time/ close on variance all day long/size matters

But for those less quantum...........then there more likely to be visual traders/which we are working on....hay pls do not disappear i love wisdom love learning ..trade of is awesome so please stick around or I will end up following you

Yes double Tap no point of reference required agreed. Example. BUY UJ EU same time dont care what price what time. Close at positive variance

In many of the funds the funds only way there aloud to trade in most cases is by varience, however the Proprietary traders normally can surf with out mirrors

They are hungry for liquidity so why would anyone want to promote using limit pending orders, SL and TP and add fuel to their manipulation schemes? And there are countless threads on supply/demand and order flow strategies to further manipulate retail traders

Because my entries are the stops, take a look at my trade charts...now its worth you having a read for you..............Im the master of buying the markets stops that why Im doing this thread.

My Entry is the stop loss for some other dude

They are hungry for liquidity so why would anyone want to promote using limit pending orders, SL and TP and add fuel to their manipulation schemes? And there are countless threads on supply/demand and order flow strategies to further manipulate retail traders

Because my entries are the stops, take a look at my trade charts...now its worth you having a read for you..............

Thos long stops taken out is my market order to go long at value................thats what I do..note the name of the thread How to predict markets, Catch the moves at value...........lets Rock

and yes I do slot trade sometimes......................I just do that with EA normally when I am on vacation and sick of charts. i.e. no point of reference required

another lesson learned - a winner attitude. Thanks.

How far wrong am I for the pivots and poc, vah, val -

Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} its alright all is welcome.............lots of truths in all the comments. logic is never what it seems. Example logic would suggest that you go long in a up trend. Wisdom may say otherwise.
They are hungry for liquidity so why would anyone want to promote using limit pending orders, SL and TP and add fuel to their manipulation schemes? And there are countless threads on supply/demand and order flow strategies to further manipulate retail traders

Because my entries are the stops, take a look at my trade charts...now its worth you having a read for you..............Im the master of buying the markets stops that why Im doing this thread.

My Entry is the stop loss for some other dude
Attached Image
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1472891754

Hi all is good but I want you to understand

The CPR is not VAL VAH POC as those are Market Profile Concepts. CPR is a Floor Trader Pivot Concept.

However both Chart in a similar way and can be used by visual traders to percieve value. I wont Cover Market Profile. It would grow this thread to much and I only want to give those who can gain an advantage by limiting there tools to Fundes/Pivots/ market days initial balance .

Then Slots for hedging /money management and ...make big pips with small leverage

So for those interested in Market profile follow your journey I will not cover it at least not this year.................here is a copy paste about Profile


ABOUT THE MARKET PROFILE
There are entire books dedicated to the Market Prome, which go way beyond the brief introduction that I will share with you here. In fact, Steidlmayer wrote Markets and Market Logic in 1986 to help introduce the concept to the masses, and has since published an additional work on the topic. To date, my favorite book on the Market Profile, and my favorite trading book in general, is Jim Dalton's Mind over Markets. This book clearly and effectively explains the Market Prome, and market dynamics, in a manner that is both insightful and delightful to read. Coincidentally, Dalton sponsored Steidlmayer's original work Markets and Market Logic. Before we can understand the Money Zone, we must first understand the basic components of the Market Proftle. Let's take a closer look at how the Market Profile is structured.
The Market Profile Structure
1100.00 1099.75 1099.50
1098.25 1098.00 1097.75 1097.50 1097.50 1097.25
1096.50 1096.25 1096.00
B B ABM ABeM
ABCDEJKLMN ABCDEFJKLMN 4 --p,;" of Control ABCDEFJK ABCDEFGHIJ ADEFGHI DEFGHI
EFGH EH H
I
Figure 3.1 illustrates the basic structure of the Market Profile, with price represented on the vertical axis and time represented on the horizontal axis. The structure uses letters of the alphabet to categorize segments of time next to price, which are technically called Time Price Opportunities (TPOs). The first letter of the alphabet represents the first segment of time, which is usually the first thirty minutes of the day. The second letter will correspond to the second segment of the time, which is the next thirty minutes of the day, and so forth. Each new segment of time will correspond to a new letter until trading is done for the day. During the first segment of time, a letter "A" will be placed next to every price level that was reached during the first thirty minutes of trading. In the illustration, the market traded between 1097.50 and 1099.50 in the opening thirty minutes of trading, therefore, the letter "A" was placed next to each price interval in this range.
During the second thirty minutes of trading, the market traded from 1097.50 to 1100.00, therefore, the letter "B" was placed next to each price interval in this range. The prome will continue to build out as the day progresses, providing you with a real-time account of market activity as it unfolds. The resulting bell-shaped profile will give you an accurate picture of the day's time and price relationship, providing you will key levels of interest for the current session and future sessions. While the structure offers an abundance of information, the two areas that stand out are the Point of Control and the Value Area. The Point oj Control (POC) is the price where the most trading activity occurred during the day, as represented by the longest line of TPOs nearest to the center of the entire structure. This price is significant because it represents the fairest price to both buyers and sellers. The Value Area is important because it illustrates where 70 percent of the trading activity occurred during the day. The top and bottom of the value area range can tell you where buyers and sellers entered the market when they perceived price to be away from fair value. We will delve into these topics in much more detail ahead. Now that we have covered the basics of the Market Profile structure, let's take a look at how the Money Zone interprets this information.
THE MONEY ZONE LEVELS
The Market Prome structure offers an amazing array of information, from market psychology to price behavior. However, reading and deciphering the information in its current format falls somewhere between complex and dense for the uninitiated trader. Unless you have studied Market Prome, it can be quite difficult to discern quickly what the information is telling you. Learning the nuances of using the structure for trading, while quite powerful, can be a daunting task for traders that are new to the concept. Remember, whole books are devoted to this art. Alas, the Money Zone takes the most valuable information from the Market Profile structure and presents it in a manner that is both powerful and easy to understand. Essentially, the Money Zone uses the three most powerful levels of the Market Profile and displays the information as horizontal price levels on your charts,
without the alphabet soup. Take a look at Figure 3.2, which illustrates how the Money Zone translates the Market Profile structure into visual price levels. The Money Zone takes the point of control derived from the Market Profile and extends it as a horizontal price level for the following session. In Money Zone lingo, the point of control would also be called the Value Line (VL). These are interchangeable terms as far as I'm concerned. The Money Zone also extends the upper and lower boundaries of the value area for use in the following session as support and resistance levels. Traditionally, the upper boundary of the value area is called the Value Area High (VAH), and the lower boundary is called the Value Area Low (VAL). These levels can also be called the Money Zone High (MZH) and the Money Zone Low (MZL). Throughout the remainder of the text, I will use the traditional Market Profile lingo so as not to confuse anyone. Either way, these terms refer to the same levels.
The Money Zone Levels
11DO.DO B 1099.75 B 1099.50 ABM 1099.25 ABCM
VAH
109825 ABCDEJKLMN 1098.00 ABCDEFJKLMN PDC 1097.75 ABCDEFJK 1097.50 ABCDEFGHIJ 1097.50 ADEFGHI I I VAL I 1096.50 EFGH 109625 EH 1096.00 H FK;UKE 1.1: Diagram of."" Mon<y ,,_< hoi.
Now that we have an understanding of how the Money Zone interprets the data from the Market Profile structure, let's proceed to a more in depth discussion of these powerful levels.
THE POINT OF CONTROL
If you had to choose only one price point that you could use as a reference for the day's trading activity, it should be the point of control. As you recall, the point of control is where the most trading activity occurred on any given day. As such, this price is considered to be the fairest value between buyers and sellers. Having the point of control plotted on your charts gives you the pulse of the market as it pertains to valuation. If price extends too far above the point of control, you may see responsive sellers enter the market to push price back toward fair value, which is inherently represented through the point of control. Likewise, if price moves too far below the point of control, responsive buyers will enter the market to push price back toward fair value. Take a look at Figure 3.3, which shows a two-day view of the Mini-Sized Dow futures contract. The point of control is clearly plotted for the December 3 trading session. Remember, the Money Zone uses the prior day's trading information to forecast pertinent price levels for the following day. Therefore, the trading activity from December 2 dictated where the point of control would be located for the following day.
In this example, the point of control is 10,437, which represents the fairest value between buyers and sellers from the prior day. Just by looking at the prior day, you can see that most of the day's trading activity did indeed occur around the 10,437 level. Why do we want to use a prior day's information for the following session? Isn't the information old news by then? By understanding where the market perceived value to be fairest in the prior session, we are able to use this information to help us determine price valuation for the current session. Notice how the market opened the session with early strength on December 3. Price rallied to 10,499, but immediately began to reverse from that level. As I mentioned earlier, responsive sellers are looking to enter the market with sell orders when they perceive price to be overvalued. In this instance, price was indeed overvalued and responsive sellers were able to push price back toward the point of control, which was the fairest price from the prior session. Therefore, responsive sellers were able to move price from 10,499 back to fair value at 10,437.
Later in the session, price moved too far below the point of control, which triggered responsive buying activity. Responsive buyers entered the market when they perceived price to be undervalued and eventually pushed price from 10,396 back to fair value at 10,437. Essentially, using the prior day's information to generate the point of control for the next day gave us a way to measure when price was over and undervalued. In essence, the point of control allowed us to keep our finger on the pulse of the market, as buyers and sellers jostled for position. Let's take one more look at Figure 3.3. After responsive buyers and sellers were able to set the day's extremes in the first hour of the session, thereby creating the day's initial balance, price basically hugged fair value for most of the day. However, the market's perception of value clearly changed later in the session, as initiative sellers overwhelmed the IBL and took control of the close. The late-day decline essentially led to an ~"'<Panded Typical Day scenario. The difference between responsive and initiative behavior is clearly evident in this example. As you recall, responsive behavior will move price back toward a perceived area of value, but does not have the conviction to influence price on a larger scale. On the other hand, initiative behavior has much more conviction and confidence behind its actions, which provides the ability to influence price movement significantly. The late-day sell-off clearly had more conviction behind its movement than the day's early responsive behaviors. Your ability to determine who is influencing the market will allow you to judge the strength and conviction of price movement.
THE DEVELOPING POINT OF CONTROL
Many traders find great value in using the Market Profile structure as it develops in real time. As such, tlle Money Zone has the ability to plot the pertinent levels of the MP structure as they develop in real time. The Developing Point oj Control (DPOC) indicator dynamically updates as new data enters the market, calculating fair value bar by bar. The Money Zone calls this feature the Developing Value Line (DVL). This process is identical to tlle way that the Market Prome calculates its point of control tlIroughout the day as tlle bell-curved structure develops in real time. Essentially, the DPOC allows you to keep your finger on tlle pulse of the market's
perception of fair value as it dynamically changes throughout the day. What's great about this indicator is that it allows you to see where the static point of control will be located in the upcoming session. Essentially, the level at which the DPOe closes the current session will become the static poe for the upcoming day. Take a look at Figure 3-4, which is the same chart of the YM we studied moments ago. On December 2 nd, the DPOe actually began the day with a higher level of perceived value. However, as the day progressed, more and more trading activity occurred at lower price levels, which essentially shifted the DPoe lower. Eventually, the DPoe closed December 2 nd at 10,437, which then became the static poe for December 3rd. As you will soon see, this little trick will become an integral part of how I approach the market.
,
THE VALUE AREA
When price moves away from the point of control, market participants will enter the market when they perceive price to be over or undervalued. Technically, responsive buying and initiative selling occur below value, while responsive selling and initiative buying occur above value. The value area helps to determine when price is above or below value. Remember, the value area is where 70 percent of the trading activity occurred for a given period of time. Therefore, most of the day's trading activity occurred within this range, thereby establishing this area as a zone that easily facilitates trade. Any movement outside of this range will trigger the actions of responsive and initiative participants. The outer limits of the value area are actually quite important, as they basically draw the battle lines between buyers and sellers. The upper boundary of the value area (VAH) is where responsive sellers and initiative buyers hang out. These groups of market participants will look to begin putting money to work as price moves above this zone. On the flip side, the bottom of the value area (VAL) is where responsive buyers and initiative sellers will look to put money to work. Take a look at Figure 3.5, which is the same chart of the YM that we have been dissecting. The Money Zone plots the value area for December 3 using the information derived from the prior day's trading activity. Therefore, the current day's value area is where 70 percent of the trading activity occurred in the prior session, thereby establishing this area as a zone that easily facilitates trade. As soon as price moves above or below the value area, key market participants will enter the market.
+_ Responsive Sellers .... ItJove Value
Responsive Buyers __ + Below Value II
Ir.tiallve Sellers? BelowValue
On this day, we were easily able to identify the actions of both responsive and initiative participants. Early in the session, price rallied away from the day's point of control (10,437) and through the top of the value area. When this occurs, one of two things will happen: responsive sellers will push price back toward fair value, or initiative buyers will step in and advance price toward a higher area of value. In this case, responsive sellers took over and easily pushed price back toward fair value. Later that morning, price fell through the bottom of the value area, which was a call to action for responsive buyers. However, it was initiative sellers that controlled the close after price testing the waters below the VAL for a second time. As you continue to make your way through the material it is important to continue to connect the dots regarding responsive and initiative actions and the price levels at which these participants are looking to make a move. If price rallies early in the session and begins to show signs of weakness at or above the V AH, the market is
likely to see a surge of responsive selling pressure. Knowing this vital information, along with the actions of other market participants, will allow you to better time your moves in the market.
THE DEVELOPING VALliE AREA
Like the developing point of control, the Money Zone also plots the developing value area as it dynamically updates in real time. The Developing Value Area (DVA) calculates where 70 percent of the day's trading activity has occurred in real time, bar by bar. This process is identical to the way the Market Profile calculates its value area throughout the day as the bell-curved structure develops. Essentially, the developing value area allows you to see where the bulk of the day's trading activity is taking place as it happens. Take a look at Figure 3.6, which illustrates the developing value area on the same two-day view of the YM. As soon as the first bar of the day has completed, the developing value area will begin to calculate. The DVA will dynamically update as the day progresses, widening and tightening along the way as price behavior expands and contracts. When the market closes, the final values of the Developing Value Area High (DVAH) and the Developing Value Area Low (DVAL) will then become the static V AH and VAL for the next session. Once trading begins the next day, the DVA will pick up where it left off and will begin to update dynamically as new data enters the market. The DVA can be a very powerful tool to help you distinguish where the bulk of the money is changing hands and when price may be ripe for a breakout opportunity. As price moves above and below the DVA's range, you will see responsive parties enter the market in order to push price back toward fair value. However, the longer the DVA remains in the same general vicinity, and the tighter the range becomes, thereby introducing a breakout opportunity that is fueled by initiative parties. Perhaps the biggest advantage that a developing indicator gives you is the ability to plan your trading for the following session, which we will explore in various forms throughout the book. The fact that this indicator allows you to visualize exactly where the VAL and tlle V AH will be located in tlle following day allows you to analyze important price-to-pivot relationships and plan your trading accordingly. This will be a vital theme tlle
remainder of the text.
VOLUME AT PRICE
The Money Zone is derived solely from price-based, market-generated information. However, volume can playa huge role in determining the market's conviction and overall confidence. The Volume at Price (VAP) indicator plots virtually the same type of information as the Market Profile, but does so using volume instead. Similar to the structure of the Market Profile, the volume at price indicator divides volume equally across all of the price points that were reached during a specific period of time and then plots the information using a horizontal histogram directly on the price chart. The display of information is actually quite attractive and allows you to assess major points of interest quickly, tllereby highlighting potential areas of support and resistance.
Displaying volume at a price in this manner is not a new concept, as this indicator has been around for a while, but the way that it complements the Money Zone makes it a mainstay in my trading arsenal. Let's take a closer look at the volume at price indicator. Figure 3.7 shows a five-minute chart of the YM during the same two-day stretch that we have been analyzing. The VAP indicator uses the volume activity at a price from the prior session and overlays the histogram over price in the current session. Therefore, yesterday's volume activity at a price is shown on today's chart. The volume point oj control (VPOC) is the price where the most volume was traded during yesterday's market, thus representing the fairest price as seen through the eyes volume. vpoe is represented on the histogram as the longest horizontal line that stretches across the session. The volume point of control and the price-based poe will usually identify the same price level as the fairest value to traders, but this is not always the case.
You may be asking yourself why this information is important, or even helpful. Why do we need to know where volume was traded yesterday in order to trade today? The answer is simple. In order to anticipate how the market will respond to a certain price level in the current session, you must understand how price reacted to that level in the recent past. Looking back at Figure 3.7, the YM opened the day with early strength, but ran into clear resistance at 10,500, which sent price back toward the volume point of the controL Let's examine the VAP indicator to understand why price was smacked down so easily at the top of the histogram. The farther price moves away from the vpoe toward the outer extremes of the VAP histogram, the less volume interest price will encounter. For example, when price becomes overvalued, buying interest will dry up because price becomes too expensive. VVhen buying ceases to exist, lower volume is taking place and improper trade facilitation is occurring. The market operates solely to facilitate trade. If prices are too high and volume is not flowing, the price will shift back toward an area that will easily accommodate the proper facilitation of trade. As the YM approached 10,500, the upper extreme of the histogram showed drastically decreased buying interest, which indicated less buying interest and overvaluation. This led to responsive selling pressure, which pushed price back toward fair value at the VPOC. VVhile both of the outer extremes of the VAP histogram were able to contain price early in the session, the lower extreme was eventually overwhelmed with initiative selling pressure, which caused a significant move away from the VPOC in search oflower value. VVhile this is an introductory look at how price can react to the volume at price indicator, it's easy to tell that it can be a powerful complement to the way you trade and analyze the market. This indicator is truly one of my favorite trading tools. Like the kid on the trampoline, this indicator triggers thoughts of fun and excitement when I use it to engage the market. As we move forward, I will reveal powerful nuances behind the indicator that will help you trade in a more knowledgeable and profitable manner

Thanks. As for CPR I will wait for Tokyo open on Monday and M15 chart to figure out.

Some dudes set the Market profile as paintable every 4 hours to guage expansion

Dennis, thanks for the awesome AUDUSD chart and also for your comments, it is especially interesting to see the reaction at longer term weekly S1 (weekly positions see good value at .75 support?)

I will learn to check the longer term weekly pivots more, thanks Dennis very helpful, great interesting thread you have here well done...subscribed!

Good, this helps visual traders stick to a trade plan and have realistic target that human psychology has money on. Visual traders and a lot of EA are pivot based.

You could visualise the limit orders say at R! then plot 30 pips back for the stops make that your entry at value. Same as my S! entry UJ on the stops.

Yup.........................I will try get my quant hooked up with you you will love him. He works in Java script. Some Quant stuff like that. When Im talking english he is talking Dutch. But somehow we trade off and end up getting what we want.

On NFP yes i manual traded that basically buying stops long on UJ. But the EA on the auto account was long both on eu uj any price but same time and closed every positive variance. Re entry was belongs pips were expanded by plus 3 pips from last 1 minute bar close.

Thanks Dennis1468, I look it up and practice identifying these IBs and CPRs by Monday.

Excellent. And the goals given to you by the big time pivots will be a major psycho to maintain discipline to hold your trade to target .....to release this pressure

1 dont over leverage, its only one trade theres more
2 take half profit say at 20 to 40 pips hold the rest to target

think about what you gonna do before you enter the trade, think about what u will do if it goes against you. Dont enter any trade without a plan for failure and win

You will crash the server of a bucket shop good result excellent. Always will be some variation /loosing trades/correlations some out of sinc/ some get out of sinc.

+ some time you cant get em all filled /broker prob.....all good drawdown 0 outstanding .............net pips outstanding .................net loss insignificant....

35.9% outstanding...............................