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Searching for the truth

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 2, 2016 3:04pm Sep 2, 2016 3:04pm
Hi, this my first long text written in english, so I hope that it won't trigger any grammar nazis . I chose this title because honestly, I'm really getting sick. I want to learn, I don't mind spending my free time in front of a computer studying and analysing charts, BUT the absurdity of all the indicators and patterns simply astonishes me. When I started learning forex I thought as a 15 year old noob, that I'll just learn some indicators and everything else is psychology. Tried, failed, analysed why, came to a conclusion, that I should go with just a few indicators and watch the price action. Tried, failed, analysed, came to a conclusion, that indicators are apparently useless, since they only give you the information already available on the chart (how stupid and naive I was to believe that some indicator could do the slave work for me ).

Now I am kind of stuck. I am in the stage where I believe that yeah an MA can be good but the most important things are fundamentals and price action. No stochastic, RSI, MACD any of that stuff won't give me an answer, where the price will go in the future. I'm now 17 and still interested in FX but all the stuff I find in the libraries seems to me as a complete BS, let's be honest here it's easier to teach it than to do it right? I can not believe that there are guys in Goldman Sachs waiting for an MA cross and for their RSI to hit 80 and just after that execute the order. It would be not just ridiculous but also stupid and naive to believe that the smart money trades like this. Of course I'm not trying to insult technical traders, but the lack of proven information and my experience force me to think this way. But I'm still open to TA.
So guys here come my questions to those determined 5% of forex traders:

What do you think about http://theinnercircletrader.com/Tutorials.htm?
What books would you recommend to somebody who is highly determined to do anything to learn?
Are there any other sources I should look for?
How did you learn and if somebody taught you the skill or at least helped you could you share it with us or at least PM me?
Is my opinion, that aproximetly 99% of information regarding trading is nonsense right?

I am not asking for a step-by-step guide on how to become a trader, all I would like is advice on where to learn from, since the internet is overflooded with scams and ''gurus''. Not to end this thread on such a negative note, I wish you all good luck and succesfull trading and thanks in advance
  • #2
  • Sep 2, 2016 6:33pm Sep 2, 2016 6:33pm
I love this. Dude I like you, your honest and to the point. I've studied technical since 2003 and have yet to find anything that works. Think about this for one second. There are a whole lot of books and free technical indicators, platforms and gurus who want to sell you a service. That's where the money is.

I've even tried fundamentals and I've got to say most of the time the info you get is already baked into the cake(efficient market) most likely.

Hate to burst your bubble on Goldman UBS Morgan chase etc but I have watched there trades on the market and they SUCK just as bad as anyone else. They have traders though that haven proven themselves in times past and trade for them. They use fundamentals and technicals.
IMHO I think long term fundamentals only works. When a market is one sided and the fundamentals are there its time to pull the trigger but that's like once in a long ass while. Investing long term is the only evidence I see that works.

But I have to say Im still looking for something that works on a consistent basis and haven't found it.
  • #3
  • Sep 2, 2016 7:42pm Sep 2, 2016 7:42pm
Hello DeploX,
I have been trading for well over ten years, and before that I was a stock broker. I must start off by saying that it takes several years to become consistently profitable as an independent trader. I play golf with a friend who is a trader with a Hedge fund, and I pick his brains as often as I can. He actually told me that the fund had tried trading forex, but found it too dificult. I don't agree with him and mentioned that if he can successfully trade forex, he could trade anything. As a professional trader he has an advantage. Every morning he is on a conference call and then a company chat room to absorb the analysts take on the market and individual sectors and stocks. The point is, he has the resources and guidance that you will never have. I asked him how he got into the company as a trader, and he replied that he took a company sponsored course that consisted entirely of technical analysis. Fundamental analysis was provided in the morning conference call by the company. I asked about the technical analysis that he studied, and he replied that it boiled down to support and resistance and moving averages, and "the usual stuff".
I trade both stocks and forex and have a preference for forex. Don't dismiss all indicators. I do use Stochastics and fibs.. The secret if you use an indicator is to know it inside and out. With stochastics I use all aspects particularly divergence (both classic and hidden) as well as other aspects.
You must find what works for you, and don't get discouraged by mistakes - we all make them. Just last night, I went short on the USD/CAD, placed my stop and take profit and went to bed. I was right on the trade (a hidden divergence trade) and would have made over 100 pips but my stop was 3 pips too tight and I was stopped out at 3am (my time). It hurts, but move on.
Good luck.
  • #4
  • Edited 8:18pm Sep 2, 2016 8:01pm | Edited 8:18pm
Currently the guy that is consistent(FXVIPER) isn't telling any secrets. He makes 3-5% each month for his fx clients. Has been doing this for 3 years or so. As far as I know he lives and breaths FX news and trades support resistance with a proprietary indicator. There is an indicator out there on support and resistance but I cant remember the name. It does all the work for you seems pretty usefull when I tried it.If I find it I will let you know.

P.S.
Found the indicator. I think its one of the best S.R. out there
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 sr_zones_ver2.6.ex4   75 KB | 583 downloads
  • #5
  • Sep 2, 2016 9:29pm Sep 2, 2016 9:29pm
Quoting DeploX
Hi, this my first long text written in english, so I hope that it won't trigger any grammar nazis . I chose this title because honestly, I'm really getting sick. I want to learn, I don't mind spending my free time in front of a computer studying and analysing charts, BUT the absurdity of all the indicators and patterns simply astonishes me. When I started learning forex I thought as a 15 year old noob, that I'll just learn some indicators and everything else is psychology. Tried, failed, analysed why, came to a conclusion, that I should go with...
Just to keep it short.

Screen time is the only way to learn.

The "experts" those that trade for financial institutions banks large hedge funds all went to uni and did a degree in applied finance. All trade the same way look for the same patterns and all develop the same mindset.

Just like anything in life it has to be earned. What ever you want to be you need to take the necessary steps to get there you need to go through the motions. All those that fail is all those who give up.

From my experiences talking to other traders it takes anything for 2 years to 10 years to be successful but it all amounts to how much time and effort you put into it. Most people start out trading as a hobby or trade only when they have time due to work and family commitments and this is why the learning curve for most is 10 years.

Read economic news and not just the headlines.
Read the central bank reports and watch the speeches. Go by what they say and dont listen to useless commentary.

Trade inline with fundamentals and use technical analysis for entry points.
Trade inline with higher time frames and use smaller time frames for entry points.

Systems dont work
They usually work for a short period then stop and by the time you realize they have failed you have already lost your months of profit.

I have back tested countless systems and always only work for periods.
The more you learn the more you will know.

My rules are:

1. Money management is more important than entry
a. Never trade with leverage or keep it 1:5 max

2. Treat trading as an income not something to get rich from.
3. Apply the the first two rules.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #6
  • Edited 11:20pm Sep 2, 2016 10:37pm | Edited 11:20pm
Most people are not searching for the truth, they're looking for people with the same beliefs which are expressed in their opinions to feel comfortable that they're standing on the same side with the crowd, not against it - you are that same person.

If you stand against the crowd you stay quiet and if you express your contrarian views expect that you will be stoned and/or ostracised.

What you will get from responses on this thread is a lot less than half of the "truths" which are general beliefs held by the crowd.
  • #7
  • Edited Sep 3, 2016 2:48am Sep 2, 2016 11:50pm | Edited Sep 3, 2016 2:48am
Quoting DeploX
Hi, this my first long text written in english, so I hope that it won't trigger any grammar nazis . I chose this title because honestly, I'm really getting sick. I want to learn, I don't mind spending my free time in front of a computer studying and analysing charts, BUT the absurdity of all the indicators and patterns simply astonishes me. When I started learning forex I thought as a 15 year old noob, that I'll just learn some indicators and everything else is psychology. Tried, failed, analysed why, came to a conclusion, that I should go with...

Hi DeploX,

I would recommend the ICT Videos check out his YouTube Channel also

https://www.youtube.com/user/InnerCircleTrader/videos

The chances are you will be led up a few blind alleys, I know I have been, but that's ok it's all part of the learning process.

Knowing what doesn't work for you is just as important as finding what does.

Once you know what does work you can be a lot more targeted in your search.

Don't try to copy what someone else is doing take the concept they are using and make it work for you.
  • #8
  • Sep 3, 2016 1:01am Sep 3, 2016 1:01am
Just understand that there is no such thing as holy grail., and while fundamentals move the market, there are too many factors; thus using technicals to trade is simpler. And talking about technicals, there are so many indicators, which to use? Just understand that they are all indicative and lagging. The best is to use price action? That is most current. And u just nerf something simple like a moving average to define the trend. That will increase the probability in your favor
  • #9
  • Sep 3, 2016 7:29am Sep 3, 2016 7:29am
Quoting skyway
Most people are not searching for the truth, they're looking for people with the same beliefs which are expressed in their opinions to feel comfortable that they're standing on the same side with the crowd, not against it - you are that same person. If you stand against the crowd you stay quiet and if you express your contrarian views expect that you will be stoned and/or ostracised. What you will get from responses on this thread is a lot less than half of the "truths" which are general beliefs held by the crowd.
Either I misunderstood you or it's the other way around. I was always that guy that went against the hordes, I am not looking for comfort or for people with the same beliefs. If you as a part of the crowd do not like me, well yeah you are missing out. All I'm searching for are tiny pieces of valid information that go straight to the point and tell me : Boy you are not going to make a fortune on this and you are going to lose and probably you will belong to those infamous 95% because it's really hard to withstand the pressure. I don't mind being dragged out of illusion that I will be an ''overnight success''. Even if the majority of the FF community hated me or ''virtually stoned'' me I would not mind it . I am here to learn and to meet people that have been there and done that and can point me in the right direction. It's hard to learn when you know that out of 100 articles 95 are either wrong or a scam. I hope that I've made my intentions perfectly clear.
  • #10
  • Sep 3, 2016 8:00am Sep 3, 2016 8:00am
Hi, Deplox

Welcome to the forum. Trading is very difficult to learn on your own-it is like taking a degree without a syllabus.

I have traded for years and help many traders and the main reasons they don't find make it is:

  1. do not understand the basics of trading
  2. do not know how to create a trading a trading system
  3. do not follow any logical approach to learning
  4. do not have any analytical skills
  5. not prepared to put the work in

Currently, I have a number of traders who are not consistant in trading as they do not know point 2 &3. They are all intelligent and knowledge in the basics and have been trading for between 5-15 years.

If someone does not know what a good trading system strategy looks like and can analyse any system, there is no hope.

MT

  • #11
  • Sep 3, 2016 8:13am Sep 3, 2016 8:13am
I think this site give you a good grounding in the basics....just remember you would not use all the information in a trading system.

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-education/freshman
  • #12
  • Sep 3, 2016 8:27am Sep 3, 2016 8:27am
I feel for you. I have tried many things as well. Every trading style is valid and works if it's a match to your personality type, so they say.

Money management is very important. never risk more than 1% of your portfolio. Perhaps that is the real holy grail of trading, to survive to trade another day. It's not a get rich quick system. If you can make 10-15% a year return, you are beating most mutual funds and certainly anything the banks have to offer.

The best method, in my opinion, is to develop your own system and style over time, it will take a few years to tweak it and master it. For me, I have been developing into a trend trader. I found a youtube site that really explains the trend trading method well. check out tradingwithrayner.com and his youtube lessons. all free. he is an awesome young man from Singapore.

A few tips I have picked up from various books, summarized.
Have a trading plan.
Have a strict money management rule. trade no more than 1% typically.
Find a simple system that works for you and your lifestyle.
Use a few indicators (if any) keep it simple.
Trade the current price action, never predict markets, only what is happening right now.
Keep excellent records and review often. Keep doing what works, and fix what doesn't.
Don't switch out systems every time you have a losing period, drawn downs are normal. If you can't handle drawn downs, and its too emotionally draining, probably trading isn't for you. Take your money to a managed fund manager and let him trade your money.
Or at least reduce your risk and positions sizes by half during these periods, or even stop trading for a while until the markets start trending again.
No system is an instant winner, they will break even most of the time, and on occasion, you will have a great trade, ride it out to the end. It's these few big wins each year, that will make 90% of your profit for the year. The rest of the time, you just need to survive.
Trading often, Trade only the highest potential trades. Cutting back to 1 trade a day is a losing formula. Diversify and trade many different markets.
And never stop learning, reading and developing into a better trading.
You don't need to be the smartest guy to trade, you only need to know how to survive, so you can trade another day.



good luck.
  • #13
  • Sep 3, 2016 10:44am Sep 3, 2016 10:44am
Quoting thjw
I love this. Dude I like you, your honest and to the point. I've studied technical since 2003 and have yet to find anything that works. Think about this for one second. There are a whole lot of books and free technical indicators, platforms and gurus who want to sell you a service. That's where the money is. I've even tried fundamentals and I've got to say most of the time the info you get is already baked into the cake(efficient market) most likely. Hate to burst your bubble on Goldman UBS Morgan chase etc but I have watched there trades on the...
Thank you for your reply! I am glad that you bursted that bubble, cause I thought that they have some kind of a ''secret sauce'' to trading. What you say makes sense, I personally aim to be a swing trader so I don't mind longer trends . I've watched a video staging a FXViper trader they talked a lot but said nothing (you know what I mean). No name, no success rate, no proof, nothing new. I am now really carefull learning forex because I wanted to join a course (yea stupid I know) and the guy I believed and followed his advices ended up basically being a scammer.
  • #14
  • Sep 3, 2016 10:54am Sep 3, 2016 10:54am
Quoting thjw
Currently the guy that is consistent(FXVIPER) isn't telling any secrets. He makes 3-5% each month for his fx clients. Has been doing this for 3 years or so. As far as I know he lives and breaths FX news and trades support resistance with a proprietary indicator. There is an indicator out there on support and resistance but I cant remember the name. It does all the work for you seems pretty usefull when I tried it.If I find it I will let you know. P.S. Found the indicator. I think its one of the best S.R. out there {file}
Is this the same guy - How did FX Viper blow up his account?
  • #15
  • Sep 3, 2016 11:17am Sep 3, 2016 11:17am
I believe market is not random
If you like my post throw me a Doge: D9eyP5TFYGDaN1JpjyU4jaU9ypg2wUk8Zp
  • #16
  • Sep 3, 2016 11:24am Sep 3, 2016 11:24am
Quoting thjw
Currently the guy that is consistent(FXVIPER) isn't telling any secrets. He makes 3-5% each month for his fx clients. Has been doing this for 3 years or so. As far as I know he lives and breaths FX news and trades support resistance with a proprietary indicator. There is an indicator out there on support and resistance but I cant remember the name. It does all the work for you seems pretty usefull when I tried it.If I find it I will let you know. P.S. Found the indicator. I think its one of the best S.R. out there {file}

are you not able to find S/R by yourself? if not, better stop trading
(.)(.) think first ...
  • #17
  • Sep 3, 2016 11:43am Sep 3, 2016 11:43am
Quoting thjw
I love this. Dude I like you, your honest and to the point. I've studied technical since 2003 and have yet to find anything that works. Think about this for one second. There are a whole lot of books and free technical indicators, platforms and gurus who want to sell you a service. That's where the money is. I've even tried fundamentals and I've got to say most of the time the info you get is already baked into the cake(efficient market) most likely. Hate to burst your bubble on Goldman UBS Morgan chase etc but I have watched there trades on the...
Have a look at my thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=602726

I'm no pro and still struggeling to make it but I feel like i'm getting close.
  • #18
  • Sep 3, 2016 11:48am Sep 3, 2016 11:48am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Just to keep it short. Screen time is the only way to learn. The "experts" those that trade for financial institutions banks large hedge funds all went to uni and did a degree in applied finance. All trade the same way look for the same patterns and all develop the same mindset. Just like anything in life it has to be earned. What ever you want to be you need to take the necessary steps to get there you need to go through the motions. All those that fail is all those who give up. From my experiences talking to other traders it takes anything...
I don't think any fundimental knollage is nesisary ....the news is already in the price action and the big players have inside info...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...48#post9115748
  • #19
  • Sep 3, 2016 11:50am Sep 3, 2016 11:50am
Quoting domba
I believe market is not random
How do you get that ''all time return'' thing on your post ?
cheers
  • #20
  • Sep 3, 2016 12:03pm Sep 3, 2016 12:03pm
Quoting price777999
{quote} How do you get that ''all time return'' thing on your post ? cheers
http://www.forexfactory.com/userguid...trade_explorer
If you like my post throw me a Doge: D9eyP5TFYGDaN1JpjyU4jaU9ypg2wUk8Zp
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