50 to 22000 in one week

expecting 10580-95 then it may fall till 510 so my advise dont open buy when hit the tgt

bagx take a break till Monday and come again on Monday with fresh mind dont do panic trades

He's in stress now ...

What you mean PB zone?

i think its probable buy zone

Public Bar

Possible Blowout

Pay Back

But it may also mean Pull Back

Price is always trying to break previous averages... If price breaks but cannot close then this is weakness and a Pull Back will result.

Also if price breaks the average but cannot hold then this is also weakness and again a Pull Back will occur.

The Pull Back will then attempt to break another average i.e. the next one available.

mmm I think I need to post a couple of charts to show you this action... Hang ten while I do that

Well said....Look at the many attempts forexsaint did trying to turn $100 to $100k in a week.....But hey he did it.....

Use that $200 for 4x more attempts .....

See here on this chart I have removed the price action so you can clearly see these levels... Then I will put back the price action so you can see what is happening on the next chart.

Here you go with price action compared to the average levels.

So the Pull Back or retracement levels can be identified as weakness.

Sometimes we cannot tell if the wekness will hold so we take off half our trade as you can see where I have done this.

Hope this helps Tim

This whole run is based on probability.

There's like a 5% chance or probably lower, maybe 1% chance for him to actually make it from $50 to 22k.

I mean let's say that individually speaking he has a really high win-rate. Like 80% per trade.

Give it maybe 2-3 trades a day. For 5 days a week. That turns into like a 3.5% chance of him getting every trade right. Pretty low.

He HAS to be able to handle losses. But the ability to get 80% of the trades correct might DEPEND on him going into heavy drawdown of like 70% and then coming back up to positive. If he closes losing trades too much, his win rate will go down from 80%!

For him to have a consistent rate (like 95%+) of going from $50 to $22k, he would need to attempt it roughly 84 times.

(why? because we calculate the probability of him getting even a single loss which wipes the account in a given week 96.5%, and ask what's the probability of getting X amount of losing weeks in a row so that his rate of winning atleast once in all the tries is 95%, then solve for X via logs.)

84 x $50 = 4200.

So theoretically it's a good investment, if he tries it 84 times-ish. Atleast one of them will likely make it to 50->22k.
Although after 84 times there might be exhaustion, bad trading and 84 tries unless their happening 'concurrently' will take 1.63 years.

In that time with a regular day job he might've earned 100k+.
So maybe not the best idea unless he can code an EA to do it, or teach it to a bunch of people and get a % profit from them.

I was interested in what mean "PB zone" for avibe.
PB zone= pull back zone. OK
Anyway, thank you for your time.

Mr Bags did great, very choppy DAX no sweat, he needs a bit of a trend and he will walk off with the prize. To be constructive on the thread, we should work together to see when the best time to employ MR bags strategy, its not a random point. To ensure success, you must pick your battle carefully.

Failure to select the right point will result in failure. Even with hind sight you can see how buying in the lower edge of a channel still requires care to not exceed 40 pips DD. You also cannot commit to just one side ie buy or sell for too long or you will suffer the dreaded DD.

However Mr Bags has certainly discovered a very interesting idea that certainly warrants further investigation

This is very true and the probability is impossible to calculate because their are too many variables involved.

Suppose he was all in on the Brexit drop? Then how often is this likely to happen.

You could do your head in trying to equate all the different scenarios.

There are so many variables people spend years trying to code EA's but no one has ever done it yet that we know of... It would end the market as we know it if someone did this. So we settle for sometimes they work and sometimes they don't.

It is the same here, Bags may or may not get a great run. He may burn his 50 altogether but he is trying and full marks to him for that. He is not risking the family jewels here. We can scream the mathematics all day long...

Very true if the trade is at its maximum all the time, there will be blood letting but one good victory can repair the damage also.

#836

Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=506246

This is the biggest click bait title I've ever seen LOL!!!!!

Is over now?

One swallow doesn't make a summer

higher risk...includes also a total loss - self-evident
...third time is a charm.
keep it up, these trials,...
next one, please....

Give away secrets
If I would have earnings at the beginning after several profit trades I would split the profit at first
e.g. 700.-$ profit > so take 14 x 50.-$
...& trade a part of these ones constituend in the other way,
...& again & again, ...diversify,..., allocate,..., split,....and so on...

Keep up the courageous work, bagXpert!:nerd:
It will work out all right!
...& don't nip in the bad!
FXcube