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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #55,421
  • Aug 29, 2016 8:00am Aug 29, 2016 8:00am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Noted, maybe, can tell stories? Some jazzy pain relief. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=447yaU_4DF8 Take care


regards
  • #55,422
  • Aug 29, 2016 12:43pm Aug 29, 2016 12:43pm
Quoting fti
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fa-27lW1dn8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_aYGdMrAOg okok noted. i'm not otherwise everyday i cannot sit here topless in boxers. wahhhh very hot and sweaty. ai ya coconut tree............http://beforeitsnews.com/economy/201...e-2849245.html regards https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GXMzXQl3bo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cq0YPXXGyu0
thanks for the link chief

feel fly to Wei kingdom as CaoCao
the gambler
the devils apprentice Return Today: na
  • #55,423
  • Edited 7:52pm Aug 29, 2016 7:06pm | Edited 7:52pm
Quoting Soekarno
{quote} thanks for the link chief feel fly to Wei kingdom as CaoCao
credit is not all mine.
Mostly DJ MOMO KOTARO.

regards
Inserted Video
  • #55,424
  • Aug 30, 2016 12:12am Aug 30, 2016 12:12am
FTI,
1)Do banks trade against their customers? meaning when most of their customers are buying, bank will have mainly sell orders in their book, for them to profit, banks will congregate and push the market down and hit their customers stop, until the bank book is balance again, Do they work that way?

2)In anticipation of major news release, do banks build speculative position beforehand ? If they don't build position beforehand, what happen when almost all participants trade in one direction after new release, aren't they going to suffer heavy loss as they are oblige to act as the counter party of their customers? or Do they not offer out liquidity during that period?

Please shed some light on this, i am getting closer to the dynamic of the market, thank you master!
  • #55,425
  • Edited 10:47am Aug 30, 2016 12:59am | Edited 10:47am
Quoting GoldenFinger
FTI, 1)Do banks trade against their customers? meaning when most of their customers are buying, bank will have mainly sell orders in their book, for them to profit, banks will congregate and push the market down and hit their customers stop, until the bank book is balance again, Do they work that way? 2)In anticipation of major news release, do banks build speculative position beforehand ? If they don't build position beforehand, what happen when almost all participants trade in one direction after new release, aren't they going to suffer heavy...




regards
  • #55,426
  • Aug 30, 2016 12:30pm Aug 30, 2016 12:30pm
just nice chance upon my first few post, years ago here.

funny thing, turns out, parts of the bourse game was actually mention and we chatted about it back then. together with how MM operate. just that, i couldnt really grab it. now i understand it alot better. ahh, how deep is the ocean.
ahh - memories

in which, i also thought
Inserted Video

was a love song,
but turns out to be a "vicious song" when elaborated by FTI. lol


rgds

100/300

whre mkt hiding?
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,427
  • Edited 9:51pm Aug 30, 2016 6:39pm | Edited 9:51pm
Quoting RelaxRay
just nice chance upon my first few post, years ago here. funny thing, turns out, parts of the bourse game was actually mention and we chatted about it back then. together with how MM operate. just that, i couldnt really grab it. now i understand it alot better. ahh, how deep is the ocean. ahh - memories in which, i also thought https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvOUeBes5jA was a love song, but turns out to be a "vicious song" when elaborated by FTI. lol rgds 100/300 whre mkt hiding?

ok ok want see something?
can blow your mind.

gotta think very carefully if i should show.
maybe not.
the truth is painful. Too painful.
OT.

ok next subject.
vicious song?
eeeeeer but its a love song leh.

Why you think many prefer become monks?
What's scarying em?
i remember 1 wise old master, he asked me a question i never forgot.
Are you asking for training for peace or for war?
3 moves kill or die. Be prepared.
OKOK i will teach you kill in a peaceful manner?
the slow motion way.MOTION way. shitty way?

Inserted Video


This world is very deceived.
In my world when 2 enters a ring, 1 must die.
Thats why i only do it for health.
And even with that thought, i am dying.
Different kinda warfare.

regards

Inserted Video




Inserted Video


Do you have parent approval? Do you have a margin account?
  • #55,428
  • Aug 30, 2016 10:04pm Aug 30, 2016 10:04pm
Quoting fti
{quote} what love song. Is most vicious song in the universe. Madam green snake , white snake legend. You know little chinese literature hor. maybe i get em sing it for you better. regards {image}

1) well, your choice. As long as within health perimeters I think is fine as far as i'm concern.


"Is most vicious song in the universe"

there, you said it "most vicious in the universe" haha,

ahh, but monk err, it be against my best judgment to say at moment.
But, seems like law is fair. why will anyone prefer to be monk?
Attached Image


very straight forward loop wht, can algo this... anyone want buy?

2)
Oh sorry, this I do not, is this an all out war? Sounds against AOW to think bout using margin acc.
Feels like its beyond me, need to base around my area to get full familiarization of MM and MO before moving forward.

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,429
  • Edited 10:43pm Aug 30, 2016 10:31pm | Edited 10:43pm
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} 1) well, your choice. As long as within health perimeters I think is fine as far as i'm concern. "Is most vicious song in the universe" there, you said it "most vicious in the universe" haha, ahh, but monk err, it be against my best judgment to say at moment. But, seems like law is fair. why will anyone prefer to be monk? {image} very straight forward loop wht, can algo this... anyone want buy? 2) Oh sorry, this I do not, is this an all out war? Sounds against AOW to think bout using margin acc. Feels like its beyond me, need...
ahhhh so peaceful your flow chart.
Good mindset.

ai ya no understand and put me in between rocks and hard place?
why be monk?
You think if you're not a monk, you will be feed?

No not against AOW to use leverage.
Only must learn HOW to use it at optimum.
Any one can use leverage.
How many knows HOW?
remember hor equilibrium shifts.
Those unable move, will be unbalanced.

In fact sunzi used leverage 30,000 against 300,000.

regards

bloated software.
Attached Image
  • #55,430
  • Aug 30, 2016 10:43pm Aug 30, 2016 10:43pm
Quoting fti
{quote} ahhhh so peaceful your flow chart. Good mindset. ai ya no understand and put me in between rocks and hard place? why be monk? You think if you're not a monk, you will be feed? No not against AOW to use leverage. Only must learn HOW to use it at optimum. Any one can use leverage. How many knows HOW? remember hor equilibrium shifts. Those unable move, will be unbalanced. In fact sunzi used leverage 30,000 against 300,000. regards {image}
Haha

ah yes yes, equilibrium shfit. - thanks for timely reminder.
I get what you mean now.
Attached Image

sold together?

time to schedule a re-read of AOW.
Noted - much thanks.

rgds

ok, back to work, and reading
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,431
  • Aug 31, 2016 7:55am Aug 31, 2016 7:55am
Quoting fti
{quote} ahhhh so peaceful your flow chart. Good mindset. ai ya no understand and put me in between rocks and hard place? why be monk? You think if you're not a monk, you will be feed? No not against AOW to use leverage. Only must learn HOW to use it at optimum. Any one can use leverage. How many knows HOW? remember hor equilibrium shifts. Those unable move, will be unbalanced. In fact sunzi used leverage 30,000 against 300,000. regards bloated software. {image}

another one i saw,
just for laughs, no offence intended.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: promise-you-wont-tell-anybody-men-women.jpg Size: 47 KB


rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,432
  • Aug 31, 2016 8:01am Aug 31, 2016 8:01am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} 1) well, your choice. As long as within health perimeters I think is fine as far as i'm concern. "Is most vicious song in the universe" there, you said it "most vicious in the universe" haha, ahh, but monk err, it be against my best judgment to say at moment. But, seems like law is fair. why will anyone prefer to be monk? {image} very straight forward loop wht, can algo this... anyone want buy? 2) Oh sorry, this I do not, is this an all out war? Sounds against AOW to think bout using margin acc. Feels like its beyond me, need...
just my opinion, the usage of leverage, leverage should only be used if a position is in sufficient profits to allow for safer attacks, the key is in the skewing of price (mm skew), volatility of pair, and terrain. from my understanding, the safest skew for leverage, is linear skew of 1 1 1, size is not that much of a problem if your net position is riding profits with enough buffer away from market to withstand some swings, but mm skew to re-average price cannot be done aggressively as the skew per the normal skew since going into leverage position on martingale is dangerous.

re-averaging on martingale skew is done usually to build better position costing, but terrain and impulse must be intact and usually it is done without putting strain on book in a state where you are near your cutloss limit.

re-averaging on linear skew say 1 1 1 or 1 1 2 2 is usually done to press the attack. and when attacking linear skews are a favourite since it is optimized for a riding.

1 thing i understand now is that, building small positions inside the killing fields is a good way to set the stage for leverage use, for example in the consolidation phase you use a 1 1 2 4 to trade inside, and am willing to leave 1 1 2 inside to build position, when impulse pull our way, we have 4 as our scout already in profits, so when impulse itself comes in, the skew becomes 4 4 8 8. so you easily push from a max of 8 positions into 32 positions, in which 1 1 2 4 is unleveraged, while 4 4 8 8 is done with leverage. so if you attack 4 4 8 8 and take 8 8 out you have 4 4 which is 8 now. so you could re skew into 8 8 16 16. the key is in your skewing of average position pricing away from the market's current price,and the net position left over have to be sufficiently in profits for skewing of price.

the skews themselves simply show the progression of how your net price average acts when you do the skewing, so if you could flow fluidly from a state of rescue into a state of attack when impulse turns in your favour, this is when leverage is best used.
  • #55,433
  • Aug 31, 2016 8:47am Aug 31, 2016 8:47am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} just my opinion, the usage of leverage, leverage should only be used if a position is in sufficient profits to allow for safer attacks, the key is in the skewing of price (mm skew), volatility of pair, and terrain. from my understanding, the safest skew for leverage, is linear skew of 1 1 1, size is not that much of a problem if your net position is riding profits with enough buffer away from market to withstand some swings, but mm skew to re-average price cannot be done aggressively as the skew per the normal skew since going into leverage...
eeeer cookie.
your maths pass or not.
you talk linear and show a staircase martingale.
eeeeeer what did you ate for lunch?

aiya think again.
To help you think.
What % of the fulcrum must you shift to balance, if you doubled your brain size?

regards
  • #55,434
  • Edited 9:25am Aug 31, 2016 9:03am | Edited 9:25am
Inserted Video


Iam not good in trading yet. But for me if it is " In fact sunzi used lever 30,000 against 300,000. " all about speed and timing. You can not send 1000 and then 1000 and then 2000 in head to head combat with 300000 and then pray that sending 8000 make any difference. Sun tzu bite from the sides and bites and bites and vanish until he can chose the terrein and know his troops are harden in battle and terrain is on his side. Sorry for english and bullshit includead.

Only posting to learn

Attached Image


Look how fast troops have been taken out ?!! - 16 and 8. Guerrilla war.

Inserted Video
  • #55,435
  • Edited 9:34am Aug 31, 2016 9:17am | Edited 9:34am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} just my opinion, the usage of leverage, leverage should only be used if a position is in sufficient profits to allow for safer attacks, the key is in the skewing of price (mm skew), volatility of pair, and terrain. from my understanding, the safest skew for leverage, is linear skew of 1 1 1, size is not that much of a problem if your net position is riding profits with enough buffer away from market to withstand some swings, but mm skew to re-average price cannot be done aggressively as the skew per the normal skew since going into leverage...

Hi CM,

Agree that it is, flowing fluidly from a state of defence to attack.
But, sorry, do not want to over-step, but this feels abit too rigid and linear for FTI..

As leverage, refers to EXERTION of force by a LEVER and a RATIO that is in proportion to initial.
So in my opinion, there be a trigger factor first. And then a ratio to move it around.

And given,
"25. In making tactical dispositions, the highest pitch you can attain is to conceal
them; conceal your dispositions, and you will be safe from the prying
of the subtlest spies, from the machinations of the wisest brains."

"27. All men can see the tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is
the strategy out of which victory is evolved."

"28. Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your
methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances."

"3. After that, comes tactical maneuvering, than which there is nothing more
difficult. The difficulty of tactical maneuvering consists in turning the
devious into the direct, and misfortune into gain."

"29. The skillful tactician may be likened to the shuai-jan. Now the shuai-jan
is a snake that is found in the ChUng mountains. Strike at its head, and
you will be attacked by its tail; strike at its tail, and you will be attacked
by its head; strike at its middle, and you will be attacked by head and tail
both."

"30. Asked if an army can be made to imitate the shuai-jan, I should answer,
Yes. For the men of Wu and the men of Yueh are enemies; yet if they are
crossing a river in the same boat and are caught by a storm, they will come
to each others assistance just as the left hand helps the right."

Hence, leverage must be concealed.

So, what I understand, it sounds more of a transfer in moment of inertia. Hence, I do not think it will be limited to skew sequence, and maybe even skews.

To transit from defence, to attack, we first need to transit through the middle phase or the centre.

Terrain wise, I am on same page as you with the impulse movement, and I also think, this is a pump and dump operation. (As above, so below)
(but not limiting to) (we should theortically not limit our vision to just one campaign, as like what FTI mention today, MM have 2 price. So, this is a variation in THEIR tactic which we play in their turf)

Skew wise, I believe we will be back on the golden ratio that was covered early on. However, my study in this area is below elementary and I am still familiarizing with the capabilities of different skew movements and character. Hence, I am unable to comment further, but it does make logical sense to add this into the perspective, as it is possible to move through a pump dump motion and leverage it without much alarm as, the dump motion will generate inertia and we be riding along with it.
As, each operation is different, I do not think the tactics would be 100% similar, in fact I am under the impression that it is the variation of tactics in relation to the movement of price gyration that gives the transitional phase from defence to attack. As FTI also briefly mentions, "3 move or dead".

Just some thoughts, got to get back to work quickly.

Rgds


It be totally different game to use this tactic, as I believe "self" then capitalization is key here. ALso, the pace of movement and terrain, we need time and experience to nurture the muscles.


oops, spent too much time typing, didnt you see both you and FTI have replied.


side track//
if i recall correctly somewhere in thread, when FTI sense pump motion or smelly MM, he would slash them "till they hurt" but, told us not to follow as we do not know the dance step to get out of the "slashing"//


in other words,
terrain is one, mathematical equilibrium is another

damnit, missed some trades.. zz ok shall not chase
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,436
  • Aug 31, 2016 9:25am Aug 31, 2016 9:25am
Quoting fti
{quote} eeeer cookie. your maths pass or not. you talk linear and show a staircase martingale. eeeeeer what did you ate for lunch? aiya think again. To help you think. What % of the fulcrum must you shift to balance, if you doubled your brain size? regards
ok, to shift fulcrum balance, you need at least more than 0.167 to shift the balance.

brain ---------- fulcrum ----------- brain
1x 0.5 0.5 1x

brain-----fulcrum------------------ brain
2x a b 1x

a+b = 1
b = 1 - a
2x * a = b * 1x
2x * a = (1 - a ) * 1x
2x a = 1x - 1x a
3x a = 1x

a = 1/3 or 0.333
shift = 0.5 - 0.333 = 0.167
  • #55,437
  • Edited 10:01am Aug 31, 2016 9:38am | Edited 10:01am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hi CM, Agree that it is, flowing fluidly from a state of defence to attack. But, sorry, do not want to over-step, but this feels abit too rigid and linear for FTI.. As leverage, refers to EXERTION of force by a LEVER and a RATIO that is in proportion to initial. So in my opinion, there be a trigger factor first. And then a ratio to move it around. And given, "25. In making tactical dispositions, the highest pitch you can attain is to conceal them; conceal your dispositions, and you will be safe from the prying of the subtlest spies, from...
eh skew wise, i feel is dependent on how aggressive you are intending to trade. because in my skews i factor in the feel factor of the dance, so i have no fixed progression, just a simple guide based on the previous net position size and average price position vs current price position. so the price tapering and progression and size progression is dependent on how aggressive you intend to trade and build position, that is a more dynamic skew which factors in the feel of the dance is preferred i guess.

the reason my skews look like this is because of how aggressive i trade, that is i don't base on the initial position, but i base on total net position size previously and then see how i can press the attack slightly more aggressively. and the style is more of, when things not in my favour i trade conservative and slower, when it turns in my favour, im not going to hold back, im going to press very hard, thats partly why my skews may not be balanced.

so for example, another skew i thought of is this.

current position to add, total current position without adding, factor(decided on the according to feel and volatility and terrain)
0, 1, 0
1, 1, 1
1.5, 2, 0.75
1.75, 3.5, 0.5
2.625, 5.25, 0.5
  • #55,438
  • Aug 31, 2016 9:59am Aug 31, 2016 9:59am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} eh skew wise, i feel is dependent on how aggressive you are intending to trade. because in my skews i factor in the feel factor of the dance, so i have no fixed progression, just a simple guide based on the previous net position size and average price position vs current price position. so the price tapering and progression and size progression is dependent on how aggressive you intend to trade and build position, that is a more dynamic skew which factors in the feel of the dance is preferred i guess. the reason my skews look like this is...
ok, logical make sense. thanks

just not too sure of the maths part, but maths isnt my forte. havent touched A maths in years, and I am confident, the knowledge have all returned to my teachers.

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,439
  • Aug 31, 2016 10:56pm Aug 31, 2016 10:56pm
in Short plz,,, I don't wanna read all 2772 pages here,,, so our findings are???
  • #55,440
  • Aug 31, 2016 11:28pm Aug 31, 2016 11:28pm
Quoting s189145
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axHrRb0f49E Iam not good in trading yet. But for me if it is " In fact sunzi used lever 30,000 against 300,000. " all about speed and timing. You can not send 1000 and then 1000 and then 2000 in head to head combat with 300000 and then pray that sending 8000 make any difference. Sun tzu bite from the sides and bites and bites and vanish until he can chose the terrein and know his troops are harden in battle and terrain is on his side. Sorry for english and bullshit includead. Only posting to learn {image}...
hahahaha broken balls?

eeeeer you thinking size only?
If what you thinking is truth, Then paratroopers are redundant.
size and strategic placement.

regards
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