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The Really Useless Thread

  • #142,781
  • Aug 30, 2016 11:23am Aug 30, 2016 11:23am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} FYI, I changed my plans and cleared for the month after this last break down of 1170. I just now sat down to peek at the past NFP's to establish any trends, and the September trend for NFP is red since 2010- not going to risk anything on it, and will start anew after. So I'll be sitting empty handed for NFP and the start of September. 1092 will be a good launching platform for a bad nfp number- and I wouldn't be at all surprised if we hang around that number for NFP, launch on a bad NFP- then reload shorts for the mid term, in fact that's...
Solid plan. Never hurts to take profits anyway.
  • #142,782
  • Aug 30, 2016 11:27am Aug 30, 2016 11:27am
Quoting sisse
iteration 18...very poor performance and trade management in this iteration. I am v. surprise to be honest ....
Yeah I got bad memories of that one personally. I got the direction way wrong and nothing else mattered after that. But hey there's a good lesson in just that. And like I said before I'm trying to more closely examine my fck ups than my scores. Looking forward to sisse's take on how it was played.
  • #142,783
  • Aug 30, 2016 11:54pm Aug 30, 2016 11:54pm
Euro very heavy for the european opening. Losing the handle after the round of reports later this morning for 'cleaning' the map for NFP. Gold and Yen already did it. Expecting a textbook soft technical session till NY...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,784
  • Aug 31, 2016 12:52am Aug 31, 2016 12:52am
Sisse: With regard to Iteration 19, is it possible to have an option closing it before NFP even if the target is not achieved? I choose "B", but until NFP.

Also I've another question: you changed the outlook for UJ to neutral when the price was around 100.7-101.2 and this area is at the low side of the neutral range 99-107. My question why the short-term outlook is neutral instead of buy?
Thanks!
  • #142,785
  • Aug 31, 2016 1:53am Aug 31, 2016 1:53am
Quoting sisse
Euro very heavy for the european opening. Losing the handle after the round of reports later this morning for 'cleaning' the map for NFP. Gold and Yen already did it. Expecting a textbook soft technical session till NY... sisse
I think good news in Euro will halt lower move a bit, there is no sign of "reverso" in the middle (flip). But GU push higher.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #142,786
  • Aug 31, 2016 2:01am Aug 31, 2016 2:01am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} I think good news in Euro will halt lower move a bit, there is no sign of "reverso" in the middle (flip). But GU push higher.
NFP gets center stage today..all other news is just the noise.
While GU might as well be pump before the dump.
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There is much less probability that this is real move so early before the NFP.
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PVSRA
  • #142,787
  • Aug 31, 2016 2:25am Aug 31, 2016 2:25am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} NFP gets center stage today..all other news is just the noise. While GU might as well be pump before the dump. {image} There is much less probability that this is real move so early before the NFP. {image}
And it has been starting dump from the half level to the... Bottom. Possible. And where is the "next bottom"?
fooled by randomness in art
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  • #142,788
  • Aug 31, 2016 2:32am Aug 31, 2016 2:32am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} And it has been starting dump from the half level to the... Bottom. Possible. And where is the "next bottom"?
HTF cca 1.28 some support, bottom of the channel.
The drop with momentum( if true direction for today) cannot start before NFP, this will probably be up/down consolidation around this half imo.
PVSRA
  • #142,789
  • Edited 2:58am Aug 31, 2016 2:40am | Edited 2:58am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} HTF cca 1.28 some support, bottom of the channel. The drop with momentum( if true direction for today) cannot start before NFP, this will probably be up/down consolidation around this half imo.
I set up sell order at 1.3125 to the target 1.3025. Stop at 1.3150.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #142,790
  • Aug 31, 2016 5:16am Aug 31, 2016 5:16am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} NFP gets center stage today..all other news is just the noise. While GU might as well be pump before the dump. {image} There is much less probability that this is real move so early before the NFP. {image}
NFP is Sept 2nd, ADP today
  • #142,791
  • Aug 31, 2016 5:28am Aug 31, 2016 5:28am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} NFP is Sept 2nd, ADP today
Yes the same, Fisher mean NFP Wednesday, Another one is NFP Friday. Meanwhile I cancel stop order in GU (Ah) . Maybe this is the potential momentum to kick Sterling down, after some "manipulation move".
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #142,792
  • Aug 31, 2016 5:48am Aug 31, 2016 5:48am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} NFP gets center stage today..all other news is just the noise. While GU might as well be pump before the dump. {image} There is much less probability that this is real move so early before the NFP. {image}
Yep, classic pump and dump with nice bearish engulfing..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} NFP is Sept 2nd, ADP today
Yes, I ment ADP today. It is part of NFP anyway (related).
PVSRA
  • #142,793
  • Aug 31, 2016 6:03am Aug 31, 2016 6:03am
A mixed bag of reports in Europe and inline (meaning solid) from the US. Some serious numbers coming this week to start the autumn season.

China will settle the deal for Oil, first proper numbers from the UK post Brexit that will set in motion Sterling after a calm summery August and more importantly NFP that will settle Dollar and the Fx board.

For now cracking the 1.11xx handle on inertia will make things a lot easier for NFP in the Euro. Not expecting much for NY and Europe going home will settle the day.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,794
  • Aug 31, 2016 6:45am Aug 31, 2016 6:45am
Quoting sisse
A mixed bag of reports in Europe and inline (meaning solid) from the US. Some serious numbers coming this week to start the autumn season. China will settle the deal for Oil, first proper numbers from the UK post Brexit that will set in motion Sterling after a calm summery August and more importantly NFP that will settle Dollar and the Fx board. For now cracking the 1.11xx handle on inertia will make things a lot easier for NFP in the Euro. Not expecting much for NY and Europe going home will settle the day. sisse
Quoting primejarvis
Expecting a small bounce near 1.112x...

I really dont see any reason of cracking the 1.11xxx level without nfp .... if it really cracks the 1.11xx level without nfp i will be very curious to see it...

Quoting primejarvis
hi guys, what i believe is that no action to see before Nfp + Monthly closing .... we are in scalping(mode) time .... but will be very curious to see when it breaks out ....if before NFP ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,795
  • Aug 31, 2016 6:58am Aug 31, 2016 6:58am
Another question for my better understanding: Does the flip area change according to the outlook? For instance, for a sell outlook is the flip below the center and vice-versa for the buy outlook and in neutral one is it +/- in the middle?
May be my questions are irrelevant. I apologize in advance! Thanks
  • #142,796
  • Aug 31, 2016 7:20am Aug 31, 2016 7:20am
Quoting sisse
Ok two points: The flip in general (i think somebody else defined in better words before in the thread ) is the TA area of no return in which long or shorts start getting stronger or they are about to give up and flip the risk:reward to the other side. In order to spot it effectively try a few historical charts in the main (mid term direction) so they are clear and useful for live trading in whatever instrument but stick to high liquid pairs/instruments to make things easier to grasp. A couple of hint questions to ask yourself are: 1. At what point...
@Fadhl check the posts and pages around this one.
  • #142,797
  • Aug 31, 2016 9:42am Aug 31, 2016 9:42am
As expected right on time tested sisse's flip level and that was it for today ... 
Waiting for sisse to cover up and start the autumn season with wild moves waiting to give a short circuit in every market whether currency,equities,commodities etc etc 
 
One simple reccomendation from sisse ... Most reliable broker in his view ... Would love to switch from the recent broker ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,798
  • Aug 31, 2016 10:53am Aug 31, 2016 10:53am
before the summer trading ends. I was thinking about the future of DAX. And here is my new mid term map....

you can see two situations in one chart: mid term range, which was intact prior to the Brexit and now the lvls for mid term swing down. Im not sure if I identified the mid term extreme well but I bet we are pretty close. Im gonnna wait for now but the short term summer leg is almost finished. Next FED may be the one whose expectations get us back to flip as a first part of the mid term leg.
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  • #142,799
  • Aug 31, 2016 10:56am Aug 31, 2016 10:56am
Here we go with the first 2 round of closes for the summer. European equities with a rather choppy neutral close in general with FTSE very marginal bearish. On the commodities side we are closing dovish both in Gold and OIL and a soft push from NFP/FED will complete the expected test 117x and 35.xx respectively for the fall.

On the rest of board, Euro especially and Sterling to lesser extend with very bearish closes for the fall while YEN is set to hold in wide Neutral range leaving BOJ wide open and as preferred instrument for the risk on and off from Europe.

US equities in their own little world closer to Mars than to Earth in an irrelevant close for today. They will ride the PIG with good news si good news and bad news is also good news till the FED stop checking out...

sisse

Quoting Fadhl
... question why the short-term outlook is neutral instead of buy?
Outlooks are changed by fundamental not by TA reasons except in very particular cases before major events (Lehman/Grexit/Brexit weekends etc). The outlook short term doesn't have to change the mid term outlook or vice-versa....

Quoting Fadhl
....Does the flip area change according to the outlook? For instance, for a sell outlook is the flip below the center and vice-versa for the buy outlook and in neutral one is it +/- in the middle?
Yes. Absolutely on a change you need to redraw/check your maps.

The flip is nothing to do with the center. It may sometimes there around the middle but is nothing to do with a 50% of a range...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,800
  • Aug 31, 2016 11:25am Aug 31, 2016 11:25am
Quoting chester123
before the summer trading ends. I was thinking about the future of DAX. And here is my new mid term map.... you can see two situations in one chart: mid term range, which was intact prior to the Brexit and now the levels for mid term swing down...
--> The mid term outlook in Europe looks very dark. We had a very bad news this week for the mid term via France.

--> As we suspected since Brexit, the UK opened pandoras box in Europe. One of the key dominos to flirt collapsing was free trade and markets via protectionism and contagion on the whole continent. The backward and rather pathetic economic policy from the left in France just pretty much killed the TTIP (Free Trade negotiation with the US) while the very core of the European common market is in play for next year.

--> It took only one week with all the talking heads back from summer to start the 'dick swing' competition across the continent. May and the Brexiters in a rampage to kill all related to Europe (EU or nor EU related ... its just political posturing and dick comments) as soon as possible before things get choppier and political unstable in Scotland and etc, while the French and Germans on the verge of entering in election mode sending the troops (Ministers and all that) to all media outlets and be very very vocal against the UK ....you know the rest ...nothing we haven't seen Europe before ...and sadly we now how it usual ends up ...

--> As you prolly know, when free markets, free trade, liberalism, cooperation and humanism becomes swear words and protectionism, isolation, self-interest, walls, racism and xenophobia covered in a manipulated 'bastardise version of democracy' become the norm you know hate, violence,economic recession and war are around the corner:

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat"

...and Europe has a very fragile memory and horrible record on that ....lets see how it goes but free trade and free markets are under threat in Europe so hopefully some progressive leaders will appear to save the day before is too late ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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