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USD/RUB

  • #761
  • Jul 29, 2016 2:37am Jul 29, 2016 2:37am
Quoting Greenstar
http://www.fxempire.com/technical/te...nalysis-352439 {quote} temptation to sell continues to be stopped by looking at the Weekly; thank you
I hear you. In general when in doubt stay out
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #762
  • Jul 29, 2016 5:37am Jul 29, 2016 5:37am
http://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/PR.aspx?...9T13_26_27.htm

no change in the rates for now
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #763
  • Jul 29, 2016 10:37am Jul 29, 2016 10:37am
Final comments for the week and the month: In my book and on the daily this close looks very much like a key reversal. So good news for the shorts. Of course fundamentally I wouldn't get too excited as I believe August to be a tricky month so in general I would refrain from having a position all together. The pair could easily get stuck around 65. As it is a carry trade this is not a problem but it could also through verbal rhetoric reverse and go back up to 70. As long as oil stays at these levels, anything between 65-70 is a possibility. I wouldnt like to get caught on the wrong side of the trade. Clearly USD Index and Oil are the drivers. I dont want to pass judgement on the level of USD Index because there are conflicting views about where it should be but for sure in my mind Oil is undervalued.
On the technical side, on the daily chart the pair stopped at the 100 MA which stands at 65.90 and which is perfectly fine after such a move. Next stop would be the 50 MA which stands at 64.91. Additionally on the daily, weekly, monthly time frames the pair respected the level pointed out a few days ago at 66.73. On the 4H time frame the pair found support on the 300 MA currently also at 65.90. Finally on the 1H chart the pair was supported twice by the 50 MA currently at 66.05.

The pair is behaving well and whoever shorted the pair this morning at the level pointed out earlier, namely 67.10, which was touched a few times is sitting already with a position 1 Ruble in profit!

Have a great weekend
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #764
  • Aug 15, 2016 5:54am Aug 15, 2016 5:54am
Quoting manosk
Final comments for the week and the month: In my book and on the daily this close looks very much like a key reversal. So good news for the shorts. Of course fundamentally I wouldn't get too excited as I believe August to be a tricky month so in general I would refrain from having a position all together. The pair could easily get stuck around 65. As it is a carry trade this is not a problem but it could also through verbal rhetoric reverse and go back up to 70. As long as oil stays at these levels, anything between 65-70 is a possibility. I wouldnt...


D.P.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Hunting High and Low
  • #765
  • Aug 17, 2016 3:29am Aug 17, 2016 3:29am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} D.P. {image}
very nice chart, 62.65 an important TP for shorts before we decide the next steps.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #766
  • Aug 22, 2016 4:42am Aug 22, 2016 4:42am
Nice flag on monthly. I am flat at the moment. Look for new short entrys at upper levels at 4H and daily.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #767
  • Aug 26, 2016 3:27am Aug 26, 2016 3:27am
News 16/08/26

http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/74240

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #768
  • Aug 26, 2016 5:01am Aug 26, 2016 5:01am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
News 16/08/26 http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/74240 Best D.P.
So my take from the article is that smart money is betting on the strengthening of the ruble but noone knows really why...Fundamentally there is nothing behind but maybe the media is portraying things negatively so they can blame the sanctions for any problems in the Russian economy. I think a good gauge is what we were discussing a few weeks ago, the 62.60 roughly level. Then we can see what happens.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #769
  • Aug 31, 2016 5:31am Aug 31, 2016 5:31am
Is it time to get in again?

Maybe fire first bullet and get in again. ( The pips are just the pip count on my image, it do not calculate in the swap that is great too )

I have limit sell at 65.80 area but will maybe trigger a first bullet before. Any views on this?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #770
  • Sep 6, 2016 11:01am Sep 6, 2016 11:01am
Apologies guys I was on vacation.

Strategy in USD/RUB has not changed. Still short and holding, making good money overnight. The fluctuations in the pair are within reasonable limits for such a pair and there is no reason for concern. We monitor the oil price and the USD Index, both of which are supporting USD/RUB at these levels. Once the pair reaches below 63 levels we will revisit the position to check if it is worth closing, waiting for a rebound that will offer another selling opportunity. At the moment nothing to do. Just enjoy seeing your account grow every night.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #771
  • Edited 12:03pm Sep 6, 2016 11:03am | Edited 12:03pm
Quoting manosk
Apologies guys I was on vacation. Strategy in USD/RUB has not changed. Still short and holding, making good money overnight. The fluctuations in the pair are within reasonable limits for such a pair and there is no reason for concern. We monitor the oil price and the USD Index, both of which are supporting USD/RUB at these levels. Once the pair reaches below 63 levels we will revisit the position to check if it is worth closing, waiting for a rebound that will offer another selling opportunity. At the moment nothing to do. Just enjoy seeing your...
Great to see you back.
My mid term targets are 64,00-64,25.

Best
D.P.

P.S. You said 63 level. Are you sure?
Below you can find the future chart daily. Is not 63 low?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Hunting High and Low
  • #772
  • Sep 7, 2016 5:14am Sep 7, 2016 5:14am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Great to see you back. My mid term targets are 64,00-64,25. Best D.P. P.S. You said 63 level. Are you sure? Below you can find the future chart daily. Is not 63 low? {image}
So from August low we have 63.4xxx, which is my first target. Then from July low we have 62.80. This could be an extension. 64-64.25 is where we are right now...If oil rebounds and nothing happens with Fed hikes then we could see 62.80 easily. In general I expect the range to be 63.50 - 66.50 with some overshooting on both ends. As long as the pair trades at these levels I just keep the position and make money overnight.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #773
  • Edited 6:01am Sep 7, 2016 5:46am | Edited 6:01am
Quoting manosk
{quote} So from August low we have 63.4xxx, which is my first target. Then from July low we have 62.80. This could be an extension. 64-64.25 is where we are right now...If oil rebounds and nothing happens with Fed hikes then we could see 62.80 easily. In general I expect the range to be 63.50 - 66.50 with some overshooting on both ends. As long as the pair trades at these levels I just keep the position and make money overnight.
Do you trade spot or futures market?
That might be the answer for difference.
I now trade the future contract for the expiration of 16.09. The difference could become minimal on this date.
So you targets could be mine in one week.

Best
D.P.

I have the USD000UTSTOM price lows though MISEX: 63,65 is for the August low and 62,84 is for the July low, respectively.
Hunting High and Low
  • #774
  • Sep 7, 2016 5:53am Sep 7, 2016 5:53am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Do you trade spot or futures market? Best D.P.
spot, currently at 64.34 or so.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #775
  • Sep 7, 2016 6:27am Sep 7, 2016 6:27am
Quoting manosk
{quote} spot, currently at 64.34 or so.
Understood

http://quote.rbc.ru/exchanges/demo/s...ay?show=intra3

Best
D.P.

P.S. Take note of the parameter of VWAP.
Hunting High and Low
  • #776
  • Sep 8, 2016 4:44am Sep 8, 2016 4:44am
Quoting manosk
{quote} So from August low we have 63.4xxx, which is my first target. Then from July low we have 62.80. This could be an extension. 64-64.25 is where we are right now...If oil rebounds and nothing happens with Fed hikes then we could see 62.80 easily. In general I expect the range to be 63.50 - 66.50 with some overshooting on both ends. As long as the pair trades at these levels I just keep the position and make money overnight.
An extra comment here: If USD/RUB drops to 63 and oil is still at 46.XX then I would most probably hold the position because if oil rises to 48 which is the next target then we will easily see 62 even below in USD/RUB.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #777
  • Sep 9, 2016 8:03pm Sep 9, 2016 8:03pm
Likely to drop to about 50-52 level before the end of the year.
  • #778
  • Edited 3:20am Sep 10, 2016 1:07am | Edited 3:20am
Quoting Igrok
Likely to drop to about 50-52 level before the end of the year.
Ouch, our rows are being filled with a new one who are interested in USD/RUB trading.


As to your comment, I want to believe as well. But for now... we are heading up.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #779
  • Sep 10, 2016 9:24am Sep 10, 2016 9:24am
Neutral on the pair.
  • #780
  • Sep 11, 2016 4:11am Sep 11, 2016 4:11am
Quoting Igrok
Likely to drop to about 50-52 level before the end of the year.
Interesting thought. I am bearish on the pair as you can see from my posts and have made great money. For the pair to get to the 50-52 level we would need serious upside in oil. That should happen soon but at the moment, some dark forces (I wont elaborate), are keeping the oil subdued.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
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