Disliked{quote} In instances where the trend seems strong and there's an order flow change I've made the mental note to wait for 2 swing lows to be broken, just because I've been burned a few times taking that first order flow change. I made a post about it in the past - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9007121#post9007121 {image}Ignored
Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade
- #20,383
- Edited 3:54am Aug 27, 2016 3:38am | Edited 3:54am
{quote} There will be scenarios where you need to take a step back and look at the overall picture. You can see again that price had bounced off the 50 of the whole move and if you look to the last clear high and clear low you'll see that the 50 was also right near the 618-786. So even though short term was showing an order flow change, in the overall picture this was all just a correction. In instances where the trend seems strong and there's an order flow change I've made the mental note to wait for 2 swing lows to be broken, just because I've...
1. i need to take a step back and look at the overall picture even though there's an order flow change.
2. have my fibs in place when price retrace the main swing.
3. it is important(as a way of filtering trades that might cause pain) to wait for 2 swing lows to be broken.before I start thinking about shorting or vice versa for long.
4. i should never trade every swing
5. I should qualify my set ups
6. let price come to my area
7. I should ONLY take trades on MY terms
I think i need to have these point on my screen to act as a reference/checklist.
I welcome more of these points/rules that guide traders when trading like jmezz(and i think jmezz has not exhausted them all). will appreciate your input.
Jmezz, I am proud of you. In my country we say "big ups"
​ It is not over until I win
- #20,384
- Edited Aug 29, 2016 12:05am Aug 28, 2016 11:39pm | Edited Aug 29, 2016 12:05am
HI all. this is my structural and order flow analysis and expectations.
why deep complex correction?
1.because there is an order flow change
2.we have NSL and NSH in the same swing
3. this is the first correction after failure
4. is a correction after a weak NSH
Â
Your input is highly welcomed
why deep complex correction?
1.because there is an order flow change
2.we have NSL and NSH in the same swing
3. this is the first correction after failure
4. is a correction after a weak NSH
Â
Your input is highly welcomed
It is not over until I win
- #20,386
- Aug 29, 2016 12:04pm Aug 29, 2016 12:04pm
- Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,410 Posts
Even though I walk through the darkest valley, I will fear no evil
- #20,388
- Aug 30, 2016 3:35am Aug 30, 2016 3:35am
- Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,410 Posts
Even though I walk through the darkest valley, I will fear no evil
- #20,389
- Aug 30, 2016 7:25am Aug 30, 2016 7:25am
- | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,068 Posts
{image} {image}
Jmezz, I've posted a few of the YM 6/5 OFA rotation charts over in my thread which is located in the recycle bin. Rocky!
Interesting that in this pic YM hit a supply zone and then this bar formed with what seems to be a pretty large sell imbalance (127x3). I don't know too much about these footprint charts but it seems like seeing a large imbalance at s/d definitely adds strength to a possible position. Also am thinking 1 of 2 things - that all those buyers in the prior bar (146x56) are now either trapped long or all those buyers sold right away and made up that 127 that you see in the next bar. Or maybe I'm just way off base here with everything haha.
Either way, this is something that I want to read more about.
- #20,390
- Aug 30, 2016 7:57am Aug 30, 2016 7:57am
- | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,068 Posts
{quote} I too have been trying to make sense of these orderflow changes that do not persist. Have you analyzed your charts since that post to see if your approach holds true? I will definitely keep an eye on it from here on.
{quote} jmezz, thanks for your kind words of encouragement. sometime(like the two examples i posted) i feel like market is just going against me(although demoing) but now i think it is starting to dawn unto me slowly but permanently sure. let me check if i got you right(take home messages) 1. i need to take a step back and look at the overall picture even though there's an order flow change. 2. have my fibs in place when price retrace the main swing. 3. it is important(as a way of filtering trades that might cause pain) to wait for 2 swing lows...
Trading is about finding what works for *you*.Also please understand that analyzing trades or scenarios with benefit of hindsight is exponentially easier than analyzing real-time price action, so when I've commented on past trade setups I've done so as a way to give you an idea of what you can look for. I'm not saying that I would have played those setups perfectly, it's impossible to know how I would have unless I was actually trading it real-time.
And regarding other trade setups which I've posted - I've taken A+ setups and used those for educational purposes. The market doesn't always make it so easy for us, unfortunately lol.
I just want to stress these points because I don't want to give off the wrong idea that I 100% know what I'm doing in every situation. I'm here learning and making mistakes just like everyone else in this thread.
That said, keep up with the demo and keep studying the charts. Price action patterns will become ingrained in your brain and as you get more familiar you will be able to pick them out and qualify them with better ease.
- #20,391
- Aug 30, 2016 8:16am Aug 30, 2016 8:16am
- | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,068 Posts
YM +5
One small trade yesterday. I went short and as I went to set my stop I clicked the wrong button on the mouse and it filled me as a buy limit vs a buy stop. Oops. Worked out this time as I would have been taken out at a loss.
The trade of the day would to have been buy the open but I usually like to give a few mins before I jump into something so I wasn't prepared for it. Didn't really like any of the pullbacks so I stayed out until I thought that the trend was weakening.
Here's what I saw:
Projection = decrease
Depth = increase
Momentum = increase
2/3 signaling weakening.
Very extended as price reached ~261.8bc.
This 261.8 was located right at some supply (orange box) which was nested inbetween the 618/786 of the larger swing down (2 red lines going off the screen to the left)
So naturally I took the weakening into supply / 618 as price getting ready to head south.
Price rejected that supply zone then tried to make another attempt at it (orange line) but the angle of this attempt was so weak, it didn't appear there was really any buying going on so I decided to short the lower high.
I botched up the trade management right away but was able to come away with something.
I posted earlier how I don't like countertrend shorts, this is a good example of why haha.
One small trade yesterday. I went short and as I went to set my stop I clicked the wrong button on the mouse and it filled me as a buy limit vs a buy stop. Oops. Worked out this time as I would have been taken out at a loss.
The trade of the day would to have been buy the open but I usually like to give a few mins before I jump into something so I wasn't prepared for it. Didn't really like any of the pullbacks so I stayed out until I thought that the trend was weakening.
Here's what I saw:
Projection = decrease
Depth = increase
Momentum = increase
2/3 signaling weakening.
Very extended as price reached ~261.8bc.
This 261.8 was located right at some supply (orange box) which was nested inbetween the 618/786 of the larger swing down (2 red lines going off the screen to the left)
So naturally I took the weakening into supply / 618 as price getting ready to head south.
Price rejected that supply zone then tried to make another attempt at it (orange line) but the angle of this attempt was so weak, it didn't appear there was really any buying going on so I decided to short the lower high.
I botched up the trade management right away but was able to come away with something.
I posted earlier how I don't like countertrend shorts, this is a good example of why haha.
- #20,392
- Aug 30, 2016 10:17am Aug 30, 2016 10:17am
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
{quote} I just hope my posts make sense to others lol. Glad to have you back in the thread, did you enjoy your time away?
- #20,393
- Aug 30, 2016 1:39pm Aug 30, 2016 1:39pm
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
Just a practice day for myself. 1 trade on demo
US30 -89T
L/T order flow was bearish and recently put in a assumed LH
S/T order flow also bearish
Not super happy with my entry. waited for confirmation which effected my Risk to almost 1:1. (Red line was stops.) Wanted a closer entry to resistance and it also looks like I entered to early since price immediately went against me. Exit was fine. Trying to take the easy money and not be too greedy. My L/T expectation is for price to go lower.
US30 -89T
L/T order flow was bearish and recently put in a assumed LH
S/T order flow also bearish
Not super happy with my entry. waited for confirmation which effected my Risk to almost 1:1. (Red line was stops.) Wanted a closer entry to resistance and it also looks like I entered to early since price immediately went against me. Exit was fine. Trying to take the easy money and not be too greedy. My L/T expectation is for price to go lower.
- #20,394
- Aug 30, 2016 1:56pm Aug 30, 2016 1:56pm
- | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,068 Posts
No trades for me today.
Overall I wasn't sure on pressing the short side today. We were trading sideways for a bit and before we entered the consolidation price was increasing so I thought that once we broke the consolidation that it price would continue higher.
I was prepared for 2 trades but price did not pullback to where I wanted it to so i did not take them. There was also 1 trade where I was watching and I just didn't take it. I thought about it but held back and really there was no reason not to take it so that was an error on my part.
I'll explain below, notes on charts.
Was I too anal today? Maybe.
Overall I wasn't sure on pressing the short side today. We were trading sideways for a bit and before we entered the consolidation price was increasing so I thought that once we broke the consolidation that it price would continue higher.
I was prepared for 2 trades but price did not pullback to where I wanted it to so i did not take them. There was also 1 trade where I was watching and I just didn't take it. I thought about it but held back and really there was no reason not to take it so that was an error on my part.
I'll explain below, notes on charts.
Was I too anal today? Maybe.
- #20,395
- Aug 30, 2016 2:08pm Aug 30, 2016 2:08pm
- | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,068 Posts
Just a practice day for myself. 1 trade on demo US30 -89T L/T order flow was bearish and recently put in a assumed LH S/T order flow also bearish Not super happy with my entry. waited for confirmation which effected my Risk to almost 1:1. (Red line was stops.) Wanted a closer entry to resistance and it also looks like I entered to early since price immediately went against me. Exit was fine. Trying to take the easy money and not be too greedy. My L/T expectation is for price to go lower. {image}
- #20,396
- Aug 30, 2016 2:39pm Aug 30, 2016 2:39pm
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
{quote} This was a nice trade man.
but when I reanalyzed the strength down and the rejection at the bottom of my resistance zone , I change my expectation to a shallow PB (38.6 - 50) and acted immediately. I know it worked out but I'm thinking I should of stuck to my 61.8 expectation and not have entered. what do you think? would you have entered?
- #20,398
- Aug 30, 2016 5:17pm Aug 30, 2016 5:17pm
- | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,068 Posts
{quote} thanks man. quit honestly. I was kind of expecting a 61.8 PB and thats what I was looking at for entry. This is why my stops were so far. It lined up with a 1 to 1 complex correction and a nice line across my resistance area. but when I reanalyzed the strength down and the rejection at the bottom of my resistance zone , I change my expectation to a shallow PB (38.6 - 50) and acted immediately. I know it worked out but I'm thinking I should of stuck to my 61.8 expectation and not have entered. what do you think? would you have entered?
As you pointed out, there was definite strength in the leg down. And when you compare the angles of the corrective legs you can see that strength was less than the main leg, especially with the 2nd leg losing momentum into the resistance.
IMO that was a really good supply zone to draw as it tested from above and beneath.
The 382 of the entire swing also matched up with the 50 of your main leg and I'm of the belief that fib confluence adds power to a potential setup.
I think that you played this as well as anyone could have hoped. You had the loss of momentum into supply, followed by rejection of supply, finishing with the engulfing / rotation bar. Also add in the fib confluence and the corrective 1:1 completion.
Check this image:
I don't really think I'd take too much away from the fact price went against you a bit as there's no way to tell if it will do that or not when you enter a trade. But if I was in your trade then I'd be taking notice of a couple of things here:
- Price moving back up as if it's going to test the zone again (red swing).
- Price tests the zone but rejects it once again, ultimately putting in another strong engulfing / rotation candle.
- At this point, I'd feel a little pressure off of me because gauging by the strength of the bar, I would then think that majority of longs who bought that red swing were now trapped and could possibly get taken out, which would fuel a further downside move.
- I'd be watching to see if we could close below the last swing low (green horizontal line) in order to further my suspicion of further downside.
- Once we take that out it appears as if there was a pretty strong dump (assuming trapped longs having to liquidate) however it did get bought back up.
- The fact it got bought back up would be a little concerning but then again keep in mind that you have now closed below the last swing low which should relieve a little more pressure off of you as it appears that lower prices are on the horizon.
- The lower prices do end up coming and you had a really great exit.
Edit - It's hard to tell in the pic I attached if I should have put the green line a little lower. To me, it looks like there is a little bit of wick there at the bottom with the close being a little off the low. Hard to tell where the close is with the drawing and the trade marker haha. Regardless, it doesn't make too much of a difference.
Greetings.
Here is a lovely 4hr USD/CAD bat. Any thoughts on this? I have no intentions of shorting it at present, since the momentum and projection on that CD leg is pretty strong. However, I will definitely be keeping an eye out for signs of price breakdown, and hope that doesn't mean missing the move.
Here is a lovely 4hr USD/CAD bat. Any thoughts on this? I have no intentions of shorting it at present, since the momentum and projection on that CD leg is pretty strong. However, I will definitely be keeping an eye out for signs of price breakdown, and hope that doesn't mean missing the move.
- #20,400
- Aug 31, 2016 3:53am Aug 31, 2016 3:53am
- Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,410 Posts
Even though I walk through the darkest valley, I will fear no evil