inforserve-trading-journal

Modified fib pivot indicator to see historical weekly pivot level more easily.


Still thinking ADR or 0.5XADR or 0.7XADR or pivot level. Time will tell.





This pair over R78 last week & short this week made some positive pips





Tried add positions with ADR but I added position at R61 since it seem not breaking R78 area and this pair is extremely over bought. Turned out with +200 pips.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11701025









2016/08/15 - 2016/08/27 ( slow and steady ) & Will try to choose only HPS.







Watch list for next week.



Will keep eye on AUD/NZD pair and if it hit S61 area, will buy.

http://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/8330...5-ocr-cut-next

http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies...sure-resurgent

Still holding on to my positions with my belief. Now I tend to hold more than week according to my belief.
Some trade was premature trade and it was not by my trading rule. Otherwise, I might have good profit.


Should put on sell limit orders place R61, R78. I did but removed lack of fund. Should increase my fund.
It could be handsome profit otherwise.



Same here.



Missed really good short opportunity.

Looking good. Will leave more to cook.

Although I trade with fundamental, PA , I should stick with my trading plan R68, R71, S68,S71. I guess that is somehow build in pattern for crowd. Good thing is my assumption seems like working. Again lack of fund deter my potential profit & now I bank more. Looking forward for next week.




Good buy zone setup & exit one trade since lack of fund




Perfect setup




I have to refine my entry & exit.
It's respect pivot level.






Overall 34% gain but still holding AN. It could go down south further but my plan is buy more when it's dip with calculated distance. Thinking about building EA with MT4 or python with oanda broker.

Done it : modified pivot mql program to send alert message when the price hit 68,71 level & will test next week.
Installed MT4 on Ubuntu & it's cool.

Rock star economy !!!! mean strong kiwi dollar ?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11706840


NZ dollar falls as VIX surges, commodity prices fall

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11707949

Clean & perfect setup. (Davit's text book setup)

Was not comfortable with positions..

Except DD on AN which I broke my rule with distance between positions, all looking good.

Yeah, No fear or worry. Just do it. Probability play...

Looking good !!!!

One lucky trade for today!!!!!




Fib pivot + patience = $$$$$




Re postilion some of floating DD on AN to get better price. Fixing previous mistake ( itchy finger problem )

Took almost month and managed got of with small positive pips.

Lesson to learn : Never break the rule. stick to the trading plan.





"At the moment he puts a trade on, and for as long as he chooses to stay in that trade, other traders will
be participating in that market. They will be acting on their beliefs about what is high and what is low.
At any given moment, some percentage of other traders will contribute to an outcome favorable to our
traders edge, and the participation of some percentage of traders will negate his edge"

THE TRADER'S EDGE: THINKING IN PROBABILITIES
Exactly what does it mean to think in probabilities, and why is it so essential to one's consistent success
as a trader? If you take a moment and analyze the last sentence, you will notice that I made consistency
a function of probabilities. It sounds like a contradiction: How can someone produce consistent results
from an event that has an uncertain probabilistic outcome? To answer this question, all we have to do is
look to the gambling industry. Corporations spend vast amounts of money, in the hundreds of millions,
if not billions, of dollars, on elaborate hotels to attract people to their casinos.
If you've been to Las Vegas you know exactly what I am talking about. Gaming corporations are just
like other corporations, in that they have to justify how they allocate their assets to a board of directors
and ultimately to their stockholders. How do you suppose they justify spending vast sums of money on
elaborate hotels and casinos, whose primary function is to generate revenue from an event that has a
purely random outcome?
PROBABILITIES PARADOX: RANDOM OUTCOME, CONSISTENT RESULTS
Here's an interesting paradox. Casinos make consistent profits day after day and year after year,
facilitating an event that has a purely random outcome. At the same time, most traders believe that the
outcome of the market's behavior is not random, yet can't seem to produce consistent profits. Shouldn't
a consistent, nonrandom outcome produce consistent results, and a random outcome produce random,
inconsistent results? What casino owners, experienced gamblers, and the best traders understand that
the typical trader finds difficult to grasp is: even that have probable outcomes can produce consistent
results, if you can get the odds in your favor and there is a large enough sample size. The best traders
treat trading like a numbers game, similar to the way in which casinos and professional gamblers
approach gambling. To illustrate, let's look at the game of blackjack. In blackjack, the casinos have
approximately a 4.5-percent edge over the player, based on the rules they require players to adhere to.
This means that, over a large enough sample size (number of hands played), the casino will generate
net profits of four and a half cents on every dollar wagered on the game. This average of four and a half
cents takes into account all the players who walked away big winners (including all winning streaks),
all the players who walked away big losers, and everybody in between. At the end of the day, week,
month, or year, the casino always ends up with approximately 4.5 percent of the total amount wagered.
That 4.5 percent might not sound like a lot, but let's put it in perspective. Suppose a total of $100
million dollars is wagered collectively at all of a casino's blackjack tables over the course of a year. The
casino will net $4.5 million. What casino owners and professional gamblers understand about the
nature of probabilities is that each individual hand played is statistically independent of every other
hand. This means that each individual hand is a unique event, where the outcome is random relative to
the last hand played or the next hand played. If you focus on each hand individually, there will be a
random, unpredictable distribution between winning and losing hands. But on a collective basis, just
the opposite is true. If a large enough number of hands is played, patterns will emerge that produce a
consistent, predictable, and statistically reliable outcome.
Here's what makes thinking in probabilities so difficult. It requires two layers of beliefs that on the
surface seem to contradict each other. We'll call the first layer the micro level. At this level, you have
to believe in the uncertainty and unpredictability of each individual hand. You know the truth of this
uncertainty, because there are always a number of unknown variables affecting the consistency of the
deck that each new hand is drawn from. For example, you can't know in advance how any of the other
participants will decide to play their hands, since they can either take or decline additional cards. Any
variables acting on the consistency of the deck that can't be controlled or known in advance will make
the outcome of any particular hand both uncertain and random (statistically independent) in
relationship to any other hand. The second layer is the macro level. At this level, you have to believe
that the outcome over a series of hands played is relatively certain and predictable. The degree of
certainty is based on the fixed or constant variables that are known in advance and specifically
designed to give an advantage (edge) to one side or the other.
The constant variables I am referring to are the rules of the game. So, even though you don't or couldn't
know in advance (unless you are psychic) the sequence of wins to losses, you can be relatively certain
that if enough hands are played, whoever has the edge will end up with more wins than losses. The
degree of certainty is a function of how good the edge is. It's the ability to believe in the
unpredictability of the game at the micro level and simultaneously believe in the predictability of the
game at the macro level that makes the casino and the professional gambler effective and successful at
what they do. Their belief in the uniqueness of each hand prevents them from engaging in the pointless
endeavor of trying to predict the outcome of each individual hand. They have learned and completely
accepted the fact that they don't know what's going to happen next. More important, they don't need to
know in order to make money consistently.
Because they don't have to know what's going to happen next, they don't place any special significance,
emotional or otherwise, on each individual hand, spin of the wheel, or roll of the dice. In other words,
they're not encumbered by unrealistic expectations about what is going to happen, nor are their egos
involved in a way that makes them have to be right. As a result, it's easier to stay focused on keeping
the odds in their favor and executing flawlessly, which in turn makes them less susceptible to making
costly mistakes.
They stay relaxed because they are committed and willing to let the probabilities (their edges) play
themselves out, all the while knowing that if their edges are good enough and the sample sizes are big
enough, they will come out net winners. The best traders use the same thinking strategy as the casino
and professional gambler. Not only does it work to their benefit, but the underlying dynamics
supporting the need for such a strategy are exactly the same in trading as they are in gambling.
A simple comparison between the two will demonstrate this quite clearly. First, the trader, the gambler,
and the casino are all dealing with both known and unknown variables that affect the outcome of each
trade or gambling event. In gambling, the known variables are the rules of the game. In trading, the
known variables (from each individual trader's perspective) are the results of their market analysis.
Market analysis finds behavior patterns in the collective actions of everyone participating in a market.
We know that individuals will act the same way under similar situations and circumstances, over and
over again, producing observable patterns of behavior. By the same token, groups of individuals
interacting with one another, day after day, week after week, also produce behavior patterns that repeat
themselves. These collective behavior patterns can be discovered and identified bv
analytical tools such as trend lines, moving averages, oscillators, or retracements, just to name a
few of the thousands that are available to any trader. Each analytical tool uses a set of criteria to define
the boundaries of each behavior pattern identified. The set of criteria and the boundaries identified are
the trader's known market variables.
They are to the individual trader what the rules of the game are to the casino and gambler. By this I
mean, the trader's analytical tools are the known variables that put the odds of success (the edge) for
any given trade in the trader's favor, in the same way that the rules of the game put the odds of success
in favor of the casino. Second, we know that in gambling a number of unknown variables act on the
outcome of each game. In blackjack, the unknowns are the shuffling of the deck and how the players
choose to play their hands. In craps, it's how the dice are thrown. And in roulette, it's the amount of
force applied to spin the wheel. All these unknown variables act as forces on the outcome of each
individual event, in a way that causes each event to be statistically independent of any other individual
event, thereby creating a random distribution between wins and losses. Trading also involves a number
of unknown variables that act on the outcome of any particular behavior pattern a trader may identify
and use as his edge. In trading, the unknown variables are all other traders who have the potential to
come into the market to put on or take off a trade.
Each trade contributes to the market's position at any given moment, which means that each trader,
acting on a belief about what is high and what is low, contributes to the collective behavior pattern that
is displayed at that moment. If there is a recognizable pattern, and if the variables used to define that
pattern conform to a particular trader's definition of an edge, then we can say that the market is offering
the trader an opportunity to buy low or sell high, based on the trader's definition. Suppose the trader
seizes the opportunity to take advantage of his edge and puts on a trade. What factors will determine
whether the market unfolds in the direction of his edge or against it? The answer is: the behavior of
other traders!
At the moment he puts a trade on, and for as long as he chooses to stay in that trade, other traders will
be participating in that market. They will be acting on their beliefs about what is high and what is low.
At any given moment, some percentage of other traders will contribute to an outcome favorable to our
traders edge, and the participation of some percentage of traders will negate his edge. There's no way to
know in advance how everyone else is going to behave and how their behavior will affect his trade, so
the outcome of the trade is uncertain.
The fact is, the outcome of every (legal) trade that anyone decides to make is affected in some way by
the subsequent behavior of other traders participating in that market, making the outcome of all trades
uncertain. Since all trades have an uncertain outcome, then like gambling, each trade has to be
statistically independent of the next trade, the last trade, or any trades in the future, even though the
trader may use the same set of known variables to identify his edge for each trade. Furthermore, if the
outcome of each individual trade is statistically independent of every other trade, there must also be a
random distribution between wins and losses in any given string or set of trades, even though the odds
of success for each individual trade may be in the traders favor.
Third, casino owners don't try to predict or know in advance the outcome of each individual event.
Aside from the fact that it would be extremely difficult, given all the unknown variables operating in
each game, it isn't necessary to create consistent results. Casino operators have learned that all they
have to do is keep the odds in their favor and have a large enough sample size of events so that their
edges have ample opportunity to work.

Stick to my trading plan. you know what I mean!!!!!.......................

That's part of it ...but I do lot more..I build positions.
from my trading plan

STOP LOSS
1 Decide how much each swing is worth example $500
2. Divide $500 into mini lots for multiple entries example .50c a pip gives 1000 pip distance
3. This allows averaging in orders as seen fit irregardless if previous orders are in red
4. Orders are placed as long as reason for trade is still valid
5. If conditions change loss is taken since orders are not all placed all at once this allows smaller loss

Swings

Each Swing investment $500
Swing is taken as loss once -$500 is reached but often loss is taken early if PA obviously is going against you hence its not necessary to wait until 500 is reached.
There are no exceptions.No running red beyond $500
Orders broken down into mini lots that satisfies each swing consist of 10-15 trades

I average about 15 swings a month consist of average 10 mini trades each swing

I came to realization that traditional hard SL of 20-50pip is total sucker move because players who move the market know exactly where your stops are.You will be taken out even if direction is correct. How to overcome this dilemma? Read my plan.Its very logical.
monitor your trades without hard SL.Beat them in their own game.
Read about Elliot Wave theory.Its the most brilliant concept in trading that all markets adhere to.Pivots are nothing but waves inside waves inside bigger waves.
Example I just exited my AC trades but should it hit 97 I most likely will sell again...You see you have to improvise and go with market flow.

Not so good trade. -40 pips
Reasons to exit : more than one week & hit the pivot.

New trading month...

1.Stick to my trading plan.
2. Know anything can happen.
3. Don't need or worry about what is going to happen after cast a trade.
4. Select an edge ( R,S 61 above ) which proofed with 150 trades so far and wait...
5. Take predefined profit or cut loss predefined amount no matter what.
6. Every moment is unique even though it looks similar.
7. Accept losing trade.
8. Study fundamental as much as I can.

Project Sandpit started on 10/02/2017.