USDCAD short trade, posting chart as I am taking the trade
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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas
- #6,161
- Aug 22, 2016 10:36am Aug 22, 2016 10:36am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
- #6,162
- Aug 23, 2016 10:07am Aug 23, 2016 10:07am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
- #6,163
- Aug 23, 2016 1:53pm Aug 23, 2016 1:53pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Cut Your Losses, Ride Your Winners. | 2,913 Posts
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
- #6,164
- Aug 23, 2016 3:19pm Aug 23, 2016 3:19pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
- #6,165
- Aug 24, 2016 4:42am Aug 24, 2016 4:42am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Cut Your Losses, Ride Your Winners. | 2,913 Posts
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
Here's my analysis on EUR/USD, I'm still leraning so I welcome the suggestions/advices from this thread members
COT Data Analysis :
Based on EURO COT data report (August 16th 2016, CME data). Commercial traders reduce their net sell orders from -98.399 (previous net contract) up to -92.508 (current net contract). Means the big sellers took off some of their short orders.
Technical Analysis (PA) :
EUR/USD is on the up wave (subjective view), from low at point A (1.10452, developed on August, 5th 2016) to high at point B (1.13657, developed on August, 18th 2016), by this up wave, I assume that the major movement on EUR/USD is UP based on up wave A-B. From high at point B (1.13657) price tends to go south, and I assume again, the down move from point B is a retrace from the major up wave A-B.
To measure the retrace movement from high at point B (1.13657), I use fibonacci retracement to guess where will the retrace move ends and go back up. It could be at level 23.6, 38.2, 50, or 61.8. Will see how price react on each level.
As I analyze how price react at level 38.2%, EUR/USD did make a nice bullish pin bar, so I decided to go Long with manual SL if price can go and close below the low of the bullsih pinbar. And price went up for some pips and my buy position still save. I also placed a buy limit order on a level that seems to be a good R-S.
any input are welcome
Thanks
COT Data Analysis :
Based on EURO COT data report (August 16th 2016, CME data). Commercial traders reduce their net sell orders from -98.399 (previous net contract) up to -92.508 (current net contract). Means the big sellers took off some of their short orders.
Technical Analysis (PA) :
EUR/USD is on the up wave (subjective view), from low at point A (1.10452, developed on August, 5th 2016) to high at point B (1.13657, developed on August, 18th 2016), by this up wave, I assume that the major movement on EUR/USD is UP based on up wave A-B. From high at point B (1.13657) price tends to go south, and I assume again, the down move from point B is a retrace from the major up wave A-B.
To measure the retrace movement from high at point B (1.13657), I use fibonacci retracement to guess where will the retrace move ends and go back up. It could be at level 23.6, 38.2, 50, or 61.8. Will see how price react on each level.
As I analyze how price react at level 38.2%, EUR/USD did make a nice bullish pin bar, so I decided to go Long with manual SL if price can go and close below the low of the bullsih pinbar. And price went up for some pips and my buy position still save. I also placed a buy limit order on a level that seems to be a good R-S.
any input are welcome
Thanks
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication ~LDV~
- #6,167
- Aug 25, 2016 5:52pm Aug 25, 2016 5:52pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
- #6,168
- Aug 26, 2016 9:21am Aug 26, 2016 9:21am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
- #6,169
- Aug 26, 2016 9:23am Aug 26, 2016 9:23am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
- #6,170
- Aug 26, 2016 11:19am Aug 26, 2016 11:19am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
Some insane volatility thanks to Yellens speech. Luckily closed all positions green. Will reassess the charts after todays close.
Ends up with RED on mine, actually price got into my TP but the spread widdening didnt allow it.
happy weekend peeps
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication ~LDV~
- #6,172
- Aug 28, 2016 4:38pm Aug 28, 2016 4:38pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
{quote} Contratz. Ends up with RED on mine, actually price got into my TP but the spread widdening didnt allow it.
- #6,173
- Edited 4:53pm Aug 28, 2016 4:41pm | Edited 4:53pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
- #6,174
- Aug 28, 2016 4:55pm Aug 28, 2016 4:55pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
{quote} Sorry to hear that. The EU trade was 80+ pips in profit at some point. I usually close my trades manually after a big jump on news.
GBPUSD, going short with a SL above R @ 1.3280, targeting 1.28-25 {image}
NZDUSD going short with a SL above R @ 0.7380, targeting 0.71-70 {image}
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication ~LDV~
- #6,178
- Aug 29, 2016 11:49am Aug 29, 2016 11:49am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
- #6,180
- Aug 30, 2016 9:23am Aug 30, 2016 9:23am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
