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The Really Useless Thread

  • #142,681
  • Edited 1:50pm Aug 25, 2016 10:21am | Edited 1:50pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Well, thank U Earleone for so much "faith" in Me. I guess the "economics fundamental" is the very hard lesson to learn, because its all about "human psychological" aspects. In the last 5000 years, We are never near to get it cracked.

In my opinion you look at this completely wrong. You must maybe get rid of your low timeframe thinking to understand more. We are not in to cracking any code. It is to look the big picture and analyze the strong fundamentals and technicals and trade expectations according outlook in combination with fundamental and technical ( When it lines up) . I know that you are positive to learn to be a better trader. Here we get valuable lessons from the best ( Sisse ) and many other experienced traders.

And yes I have faith in you RoelsMajor from experience with your trading and analyses during the last year
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #142,682
  • Aug 25, 2016 4:07pm Aug 25, 2016 4:07pm
Another yawning day...currencies, particularly euro and yen, look 'al dente' for a sharp swing. Ears on Jackson to close the summer trading this week.

On the iterations front obviously no updates today ...

Quoting Fadhl
Sisse Outlook Updates that I tracked back
@Fadhl I am not sure if all are updated properly.

Just at quick glance, US equities are in short term buy since mid July coordinated CB bazookas combo with NFP overshoots, Euro long term is sell since the Q Outlook 2011 update (it's a nice chart reference posts if you are interested in seeing a reversal call), etc ... I will give you a hand in the next few days so its cleaner and easier to track the other outlooks...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,683
  • Aug 25, 2016 5:49pm Aug 25, 2016 5:49pm
Quoting sisse
Another yawning day...currencies, particularly euro and yen, look 'al dente' for a sharp swing. Ears on Jackson to close the summer trading this week. On the iterations front obviously no updates today ... {quote} @Fadhl I am not sure if all are updated properly. Just at quick glance, US equities are in short term buy since mid July coordinated CB bazookas combo with NFP overshoots, Euro long term is sell since the Q Outlook 2011 update (it's a nice...
Thanks so much Everyone appreciates!
  • #142,684
  • Aug 26, 2016 12:44am Aug 26, 2016 12:44am
Currencies and everything totally flat ... Nothing to see before fed today ... Hope of getting 10 pips when London opens but no use of getting an entry... Will wait and watch how fed pans out... 
 
Not only market even the thread is flat ... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,685
  • Aug 26, 2016 2:42am Aug 26, 2016 2:42am
...and we are reaching the end of summer trading.

We have one of those potential mover and shaker event that doesn't have expectations so very tricky environment for trading.

A nothing new Yellen without a FED 'slip of the tongue' will leave us in the status quo to kick start the new season with the Monthly close.

On the other hand, any surprise from Jackson will send massive shockwaves across the board.

A very hawkish FED for hikes Sep specially but also like last year for Dec Guarantee hikes will caught Equities with their pants down.

  1. Equities are in the usual cocky/manic mode ignoring all but free money and they are very ill prepared for a 'shock' on the rates front. Just the quick knee jerk reaction will send us to test 2080.xx before digesting the news.
  2. Currencies and Gold are a lot more vigilant to the FED today. Gold already preempting a hawkish move in early trading, 133x is the level to track for a direct play -> 122x. Dollar, Yen and Euro in play. YEN via UJ look particular ready to explode 100.7x is the rain maker for a test 106.6x -> 114.xx before BOJ launch the next move that is cooking. Euro 1.124x is the one to track to kill 1.116x -> 1.097x ->1.074x.

While a dovish FED killing the hikes cycle (very unexpected).

  1. Equities will fly pass the moon to complete 2200.xx and the ext on magic numbers to 237x before elections with Gold completing the extension 1450x in a fast leg.
  2. On the currency front, Dollar will be annihilated in an announcement like that and it will trigger major short-circuits across all currencies. UJ 94.7 -> 90.0x and Euro to kill 1.142x for a super sharp leg 1.174x sweeping all shorts and Sterling unlocking a sharp dead cat bounce on a short squeeze 1.351x -> 1.390.x

Expecting a soft European session after reports and then is all eyes in NY and ears in Jackson....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,686
  • Edited 4:07am Aug 26, 2016 3:45am | Edited 4:07am
Hi Sisse,
Quoting sisse
...We have one of those potential mover and shaker event that doesn't have expectations so very tricky environment for trading. . Euro 1.124x is the one to track to kill 1.116x -> 1.097x ->1.074x. .
With market expectations not clear, would it be wise to clear long positions with the potential downside?
Would a "nothing new Yellen" not move the market much & a dovish FED unlikely, a possible re-entry after the event? (don't have any live entries myself, just curious)
  • #142,687
  • Aug 26, 2016 4:19am Aug 26, 2016 4:19am
Quoting PAStalker
Hi Sisse, {quote} With market expectations not clear, would it be wise to clear long positions with the potential downside? Would a "nothing new Yellen" not move the market much & a dovish FED unlikely, a possible re-entry after the event? (don't have any live entries myself, just curious)
Dont expect that the market is not going to move ... Whether it's up or down don't know yet will be confirmed @ yellen speak ... 
My expectation : a close near 1.118x -1.114x ...
 
Rest everything is aligned & ready to go ... If things go wrong will wait for the correction ... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,688
  • Aug 26, 2016 4:24am Aug 26, 2016 4:24am
I know a faint heart never won a fair maiden but I'm out.
See what happens Monday.
All the best
  • #142,689
  • Aug 26, 2016 6:37am Aug 26, 2016 6:37am
A comatose european session as expected...All ready for the opening range and Yellen to start the fireworks for the fall or kill the week and month in chop. Tickets still available on the open for those trying to positioning for the FED September but not at bargain prices any longer....

Quoting PAStalker
Hi Sisse, {quote} With market expectations not clear, would it be wise to clear long positions with the potential downside? Would a "nothing new Yellen" not move the market much & a dovish FED unlikely, a possible re-entry after the event? (don't have any live entries myself, just curious)
You meant if you are long from 1.116x or under? you should have cleared long time ago @ 1.132x and sit tight for a last chance to break or kill in case we get some action today from the FED. About if you want to reentry longs ...well you tell me what your map say and why would you go long or short?.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,690
  • Aug 26, 2016 7:20am Aug 26, 2016 7:20am
Eyes on US numbers. Soft gdp is already digested only major (not expected major correction s) overshoot especially and undershoot will trigger the move before the FED ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,691
  • Aug 26, 2016 7:30am Aug 26, 2016 7:30am
Let the party begins ... Good nos. From US ... Hopefully today sisse's FA nos start working ... And not this shit which is going from the last 2 months ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,692
  • Aug 26, 2016 7:54am Aug 26, 2016 7:54am
Quoting sisse
You meant if you are long from 1.116x or under? sisse
If you had a short-term long open(whether neutral or buy ST outlook)..no specific entry..just risk on the downside regarding Yellen

Quoting sisse
well you tell me what your map say and why would you go long or short?
Current short-term outlook is neutral..so I wouldn't be looking for longs, possible shorts after a break through 1.137x & get in on the way back..still unsure whether 1.129x or 1.131x is FA level..not much difference..
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  • #142,693
  • Aug 26, 2016 7:55am Aug 26, 2016 7:55am
Hi any livestream for Yellen?
regards
  • #142,694
  • Aug 26, 2016 8:00am Aug 26, 2016 8:00am
Quoting mayafx
Hi any livestream for Yellen? regards
http://www.bloomberg.com/live/europe
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #142,695
  • Aug 26, 2016 8:02am Aug 26, 2016 8:02am
Talking heads in a rampage in all media as it was expected for today. Lots of noise and more hawkish noise but after 8 years of the same BS, markets only listen to the Captain when is very clear not the Crew.... Actively managing positions and looking for new ones here....

On the iteration 19 front a quick update so far before the open and in case we get some movers and shakers:

Long: Stochastic entry triggered early this week.
Short: Price entry triggered early this week.

Now we have potential stochastic short entry for the US session. ... GL all trading the Euro ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,696
  • Aug 26, 2016 8:03am Aug 26, 2016 8:03am
In addition to the current context where US economy is far healthier than the rest of the word and based on the soft GDP of this morning, can we say that the market expectation for hiking in September is actually low if not Nil because hiking will not be sustainable for US economy?
  • #142,697
  • Aug 26, 2016 8:08am Aug 26, 2016 8:08am
Quoting sisse
A comatose european session as expected...All ready for the opening range and Yellen to start the fireworks for the fall or kill the week and month in chop. Tickets still available on the open for those trying to positioning for the FED September but not at bargain prices any longer.... {quote} You meant if you are long from 1.116x or under? you should have cleared long time ago @ 1.132x and sit tight for a last chance to break or kill in case we get some action today from the FED. About if you want to reentry longs ...well you tell me what your...
Playing shorts eurusd and gbpusd and partly hedge with longs in gold. So one off the sides will go to DD. I hope it will be gold. ( I will average down on turn later to take back DD or get an small loss or BE if that sides go to DD. If other side goes to DD it is against the fundamental in eur and GBP and I will sit tight until we get an turn from the ruro / Britain side later. It is imo limited how far they will go even if Jellen will not be hawkish in here wiev ( wich I think she will be )

In best case it spikes big in both directions and I manage to clear both sides during short term.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #142,698
  • Aug 26, 2016 8:16am Aug 26, 2016 8:16am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Playing shorts eurusd and gbpusd and partly hedge with longs in gold. So one off the sides will go to DD. I hope it will be gold. ( I will average down on turn later to take back DD or get an small loss or BE if that sides go to DD. If other side goes to DD it is against the fundamental in eur and GBP and I will sit tight until we get an turn from the ruro / Britain side later. It is imo limited how far they will go even if Jellen will not be hawkish in here wiev ( wich I think she will be ) In best case it spikes big in both directions...
Don't forget that Euro and Sterling especially are primarily holding short term via the Dollar side. The main issue we are starting to see is that we will get the next hikes (1 or 2) in the next 2 quarters or so and then we are set to close for good this very timid rate cycle as we move to the fiscal side till the European storm shows the extend of the damage of Brexit in 2017 and beyond..

What it means is that your hedge, although logical, its out of balance on the timing for portfolio management...in any case GL...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,699
  • Aug 26, 2016 8:26am Aug 26, 2016 8:26am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Don't forget that Euro and Sterling especially are primarily holding short term via the Dollar side. The main issue we are starting to see is that we will get the next hikes (1 or 2) in the next 2 quarters or so and then we are set to close for good this very timid rate cycle as we move to the fiscal side till the European storm shows the extend of the damage of Brexit in 2017 and beyond.. What it means is that your hedge, although logical, its out of balance on the timing for portfolio management...in any case GL... sisse
What I see is a maximum of 2 hikes until Q2 2017 ... Not beyond that ... Just in case they don't pull the trigger this year (very very very unexpected) once ... I know sisse knows how fragile the things will go ... 
 
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,700
  • Aug 26, 2016 8:35am Aug 26, 2016 8:35am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Don't forget that Euro and Sterling especially are primarily holding short term via the Dollar side. The main issue we are starting to see is that we will get the next hikes (1 or 2) in the next 2 quarters or so and then we are set to close for good this very timid rate cycle as we move to the fiscal side till the European storm shows the extend of the damage of Brexit in 2017 and beyond.. What it means is that your hedge, although logical, its out of balance on the timing for portfolio management...in any case GL... sisse
I will also add that the hedge is partly ( approximately 25% ) So if wrong my DD in Eur/Usd and gbpusd will still be painful , but not as painful as if unhedged , if I get it on gold I dont think it will hurt my account.
Trading in the shadow of SM
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