BREXIT RULES! The Consequences

FYI: should you respond to any of the above, I might not be able to respond for some time. These replies of mine take long, and I have a busy few weeks ahead of me, though I will try and come back

That is not my point.
I was referring to the definition of the Duty of an MP in these and similar circumstances.
IF their Duty is simply to execute the views/opinion of the people then they must enact Brexit.
If their Duty is to exercise their conscience and best judgement of what is in the best interests of the People, and the Nation, then they must not.
If the feel sufficiently conflicted as to which is their Duty, then they must resign.

Naturally this considers the narrow moral issues of constitutional duty only.
The REAL-POLITIK of the situation involves self-interest and party interest.
But it is an interesting speculation. n'est-ce pas?

Yes definitely everybody has their own axes to grind.

Lol at this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37iHSwA1SwE

My dear @Verv..
I congratulate you. Unreservedly.

Your video says more about the reality of British attitudes towards Europe and the Little Englanders vote to Leave than all the volumes posted here
and the terabytes of political and media analysis spin and propaganda have been written in the last decade.
And leaves nothing more to be said.

Thank you.
Case Closed

Been some reports surfacing that its anticipated Brexit may not happen until 2020.
This is starting to look like a joke.

Some Polls:

Leave voters do not regret Brexit:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/11/yougov-focus-groups/

69% of people believe the UK should abide by the referendum result and leave:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
^same article says Canadian trade deal preferable

A marital divorce takes maybe 6 months - Brexit is many times more complicated lol

Brexit may not happen until 2020. This is starting to look like a joke.
Who cares now? It will happen in either way. There is a lot depends on who will come to power in the United States after the presidential election in November 2016, so many of the processes are now descend on the brakes just to wait. America is the world hegemony today, in the currency of which the whole world is held..so let's wait.

Brexit and Nigel 'wow' the US/Mississippi

https://youtu.be/8Ef2Zn31TwU

It appears that Nigel Farage is the subject of a comedy program now in production in the UK.
Unfortunately Farage is not a source of humour for most people.
And his narcissistic posturing represents a serious problem for the stability of western democracy as this video illustrates.

What we are seeing are symptoms of a diseased system. If we can't fix the system the symptoms will keep appearing.

Keep taking the blue pills.

I was astonished to discover in this YouGov poll, that the Brexit vote has brought floating to the surface, a series of toxic views in certain sectors of the British electorate which contradict any and every principle of moral decency in thats inshrined in the concept of (Human) Rights that in our British tradition owes it origins to Magana Carta. A disrespect for the very unalienable concept of human rights, as embodied in every democratic constitution since the Founding Fathers US Constitution.

37% Conservative voters? 41% Ukip? Does history teach nothing? What did our fathers and grandfathers fight and die for if not for this.

For Gods sake Hombre.. get real. ALL systems are diseased. Its the nature of politics, society and democracy.
Did you seriously believe that some big victory has been achieved with Brexit? That that will lead to a more successful, prosperous or more equal UK?
IMHO, this stuff plays into the very heart of the system. In or out of the EU, Britains real problems are internal and domestic. Leaving the EU has just distracted attention from that reality and kicked any real reforms even further down the road.

Blue Pills? You lost me? Or are they your prescription for the disease?

I said it was a symptom and along those lines, I don't think that aching joints are in any way helpful in curing arthritis. I think people are sick of being lied to and are looking for anything to break the status quo, even if it will lead to something worse. It seems like the planet has been hijacked and the powerful are only working for themselves and this is not lost on the people. You say is the nature of politics, society and democracy but for me, I don't believe in democracy, am appalled by our politicians and think our society is in a terrible state.

Cause and effect. These things are not happening in a vacuum, and there are a series of events that has led us to where we are today and if one is going to bitch and moan about Donald Trump or Brexit then they are missing most of the story and are taking very superficial view of what is happening.

When you say ALL systems are diseased, do you really mean all systems? Because I'm sure I can come up with a few systems that are not diseased.

As for the post on human rights, if you have to ask whether human rights exist, then it is still open for debate which means there's a chance they don't exist. The umbrella of human rights covers a lot of different things to a lot different people so I don't think anything can be drawn from that bar graph other than it is quite telling that you are trying to fit it to your narrative. Why do you say that the Brexit vote has brought this to the surface? Can you point me to the previous surveys indicating that peoples "opinions" have changed since the referendum was announced? On that page http://tinyurl.com/jxp5to5 it says "The latest survey indicates a small movement in opinion away from leaving the convention, something that 48% supported a year ago. The shift in feelings about the European human rights court resembles shifting views about the European Union. Support for leaving the EU is at 39% this week, down from 43-45% in July 2013." Kind of demonstrates how utterly pointless it is using these polls in any kind of argument, unless you are trying to buttress it with anaemic correspondences of a superficially practical kind that have no veracity in the real world, especially when invalidates your point that a series of toxic views have risen since the referendum was announced.

Interesting that you said case closed after watching a short segment of a '80s comedy show, written by one person, and yet you continue posting. By all means keep posting but your biases are clear for everybody to see when you use pejoratives like Little Englander.

Just let the Brits get on with it and see where the chips land, they can always join back up if they need to.

Red pill or blue pill, it is from the Matrix.

I am still waiting on your predictions of what the EU and UK will look like in ten years.

Your disbelief in democracy is noted.

Ok .. do it... Just remember that we ARE talking about macro systems of social political and economic organisation.

Why not take that point up with YouGov. As reputable researchers they will no doubt respect your view that their question is meaningless and explin their reason for including it in their survey..

Because for me it did. I never realised that such views had widespread acceptance in the UK electorate or that the were so focused on certain political groups.
My ignorance.

.
Well I do believe it self evident that that the majority of the CORE ADVOCATES of the Brexit case did fit this description. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Englander )
I DO NOT believe or suggest that this represents the bulk of Leave voters, though demographics of the vote certainly support the CORE supporter argument.
I was not aware that it was pejorative. If taken as such let me disassociate my self from any pejorative aspect that might be taken.

My dear @Kubez... I spent many years in business, and learned a long time ago never to put a figure and a date on the same piece of paper.

PS BTW Yes Minister was written by TWO people.. Peter Jay and Jonathan Lynn, not one. I only nitpick on this because I believe it to be the most incisive satirically accurate portrayal of the "diseased" nature of the political process. And until posted here, I forgotten the Sir Humphry clip posted by @verv.

I couldnt resist..
Heres the post brexit script for Yes Minister from original writers, Anthony Jay (who sadly died last week). & Johnathan Lynn,
that sadly cannot be recorded because most of the original cast are no longer with us.



An office. There is a knock on the door.
Sir HumphreyCome in.
MinisterIm told I can find the new permanent secretary of the new Brexit ministry in here.
Sir Humphrey Indeed you can. Sir Humphrey Appleby (http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0030014/quotes) at your service.
Minister Im the new minister.
Sir Humphrey Which one?
Minister Which one?
Sir Humphrey Well, I know youre not the foreign secretary (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/14/boris-johnson-foreign-secretary-view-from-abroad) the hair, you know, big give-away and youre not Mr Davis (http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/brexit-minister-david-davis-thinks-republic-ireland-part-uk) nor Dr Fox (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/26/british-eu-relations-to-be-resolved-by-2020-says-liam-fox).
Minister Im shocked. I thought the civil service would be better prepared than this.
Sir Humphrey Normally we are. But normally the prime minister puts one person in charge of a new policy initiative, not a job lot.
Minister There is only one secretary of state for exiting the European Union (https://www.theguardian.com/world/eu).

Sir Humphrey So where is Mr Davis? We havent seen him yet.
Minister Hes over at Chevening.
Sir Humphrey Oh yes, the official residence the PM has ordered him to share with Boris and Liam (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/18/boris-johnson-forced-to-share-mansion-with-liam-fox-and-david-davis).
Minister Yes. Theyre squabbling over who gets the best bedroom.
Sir Humphrey So youre one of the junior ministers.
Minister In charge of all legal matters.
Sir Humphrey Are you a lawyer?
Minister Unfortunately not.
Sir Humphrey On the contrary, that is most fortunate. The civil service has always opposed the appointment of anyone with specialised knowledge.
Minister Why?
Sir Humphrey Their preconceived ideas may not be compatible with government policy.
Minister What if the ideas are good?
Sir Humphrey Most good ideas are incompatible with government policy.

Minister Were you in favour of Brexit?
Sir Humphrey I, Minister? I am neither in favour of nor against anything. I am just a humble vessel into which ministers pour the fruits of their labour and their remarkable intellectual endeavours. So tell me what are we trying to achieve here?
Minister Brexit.
Sir Humphrey I am fully seized of that notion and completely on board of course. But. What does it mean, exactly?
Minister Havent you heard the PM? Brexit means Brexit (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUxjSTFYoZM).
'The Council of the European Union should not be confused with the European Council nor with the Council of Europe'
Sir Humphrey Indeed. So does Brexit mean keeping the City of London involved in some or all of European banking, financial and regulatory activity, or trade tariffs? Does it mean curtailing the movement rights of UK nationals as well as EU citizens? Does Brexit perhaps include revising our own governance as EU law recedes from our sceptred isle? Does Brexit mean the legislation of new health and safety regulations, employment and all other laws where we have lost competence to Brussels, including the drafting of 30 or 40 new bills for each Queens speech for a decade or two?
Minister Um not sure can you clarify that for me?

Sir Humphrey Can you clarify it for me? You are one of those who campaigned successfully for Brexit, in the referendum.
Minister Yes, but we didnt expect to win.
Sir Humphrey What did you want?
Minister Sovereignty.
Sir Humphrey We had that already. What else?
Minister Control of our borders.
Sir Humphrey We had that too. Anything else?
Minister Look, when it came to the details, we all wanted something different. But we did agree on one vital essential.
Sir HumphreyWhich was?
Minister Brexit.

Minister So how do we go about it?
Sir Humphrey The first thing to understand is that there is a European Council and a Council of the European Union.
Minister Theyre not the same thing?
Sir Humphrey No. The European Council, whose members are the 28 heads of state of the 28 member states, defines the general political direction and priorities of the European Union whereas the Council of the European Union, on the other hand, develops the EUs common foreign policy, in so far as there is any, and security policy, concludes international agreements and adopts the EU budget.
Minister Whos in charge?
Sir Humphrey Thats an interesting question. The president of the European Council is in office for 30 months and is in charge of preparing the agenda and chairing the meetings of the European Council, whereas the presidency of the Council of the European Union is held only for six months each, by rotating states, hardly enough time for a part-time president to get his feet under the desk. Which is probably the idea.

Minister So who really runs Europe?
Sir Humphrey Another interesting question. Well done, Minister! The European Union is run on an intricate and sophisticated system (http://www.dadalos-europe.org/int/grundkurs4/eu-struktur_1.htm) based on an hierarchical structure of interlocking and overlapping jurisdictions designed to separate the powers whilst reinforcing the authority of the departments, institutions and agencies who collectively and separately control and supervise the diverse activities of the Union and its associated organisations. So Europe is not run by the president of the European Council or the Council of the European Union but by the president of the European Commission, who is akin to prime minister of Europe because he is elected for five years and heads a cabinet government whereas the president of the Council, on the other hand, is not elected but appointed, and presides over the meetings of the Council, which is not the cabinet.
'Just move all the paperwork that we give you from your in-tray to your out-tray. Well do the rest'

Minister Who are the members of the European Council?
Sir Humphrey The European Councils membership consists of the heads of member states while the Council of the European Union, on the other hand which is often still referred to as the Council of Ministers is the real voice of EU member governments, adopting EU laws and coordinating EU policies. Sometimes it is just called the Council in the interests of clarity. And theyre not even trying to be funny.
Minister Its called the Council.
Sir Humphrey Yes but the Council of the European Union should not be confused with the European Council nor with the Council of Europe nor the Council of Ministers, which is also sometimes just called the Council, although it is not the same Council as the other Council and is in fact not an EU body at all.
Minister Its not that simple, is it?
Sir Humphrey Would you like us to simplify it for you?
Minister I would.
Sir Humphrey In that case, just move all the paperwork that we give you from your in-tray to your out-tray. Well do the rest.
Minister Can I trust you?
Sir Humphrey Of course. We are your humble servants ...

Minister Yes, yes! Ive heard all that. But are you in favour of Brexit?
Sir Humphrey That depends what it means.
Minister Brexit means Brexit.
Sir Humphrey Yes Minister.

how would you go about fixing the uk's problems with the NHS without knowing how many people will come into the uk and what there average age is. if someone comes over at 45 and works a low paid job they will not pay enough into the NHS to cover them self's and previous health problems is a new minefield to predict . how do you think we can solve?

how would you fix school placements in same part's of the country it's a nightmare to get your first choice do you have a way to predict how many new school places we will need if we stay in the EU over the next 10 years because if you do your the only one?

people in low paid job's in the uk have been hit very hard and low skilled migrants from the EU are causing this. they is over competition for low skilled jobs this is a real problem how will you fix this without knowing which industry they will go into?

all of these problems are part of the problem of being in the EU

Vrey reasonable questions. Let me have a shot at answering ..

EU migrants account for 3.6% of the population. The first thing to understand is that unlike N0n-EU migrants.. EU migrants have paid more in tax into the exchequer than they have drawn from the UK for decades. Not suprising when the Labour Force Survey statistics published in August 2015 show that 79.4 % of the 16-64 year old EU migrant citizens in the UK are in employment (rising to 84.6% of those from the new EU Member States), compared to 73.5 % of British citizens (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/october-2015/table-emp06.xls). And that they on average earn 7.5% pa more than UK citizens.
So they have paid for what they get. FullFact the independent research charity.. estimate that in 2014, migration from the EU added 160 million in additional costs for the NHS across the UK. I use monetary figures as a proxy for MHS usage. It assumes that they use health services at the same rate as people of the same age already in Britain, although there is also evidence that EU immigrants may be healthier. IMHO if the NHS is under pressure, its not because the Government cant afford expenditure because of EU migrant pressures, its because they HAVENT spent the extra tax those same migrants paid in good faith, to provide for the services they paid for. And that goes for Education also.

Your obviously are interested and very informed in this .. and youve raised a important subject..
I commend you to read this link. https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-immigration-and-pressure-nhs/ for some stuff that I found useful in the overall perspective.
All the issues you raise are covered and as youll see its much too complicated to answer properly in this sort of forum.
My conclusion, was that the NHS does have problems with migrant inflows, but not EUFoM migrants, rather the opposite..

On Education and Schools I think you have raised a much more sensitive issue. And frankly I dont know.
The question is.. how many children of marriages between UK and EU citizens OR between EU Citizens in the UK under EU FoM treaty, are coming each year to the UK, and are these numbers significant burden on the school system.

And Ive NOT been able to establish that from the government statistics. If you have then please direct me to the source.
What I have got is hugely confused figures that include children of UK+NonEU citizen marriages, EUCitizens+NonEU citizens marriages, and childeren of marriages where both parents are NonEU citizens. (Remember Cameron in February, got agreement from EU partners that where EU citizens sought entry into the UK with a NonEU partner, that the FoM dispensation would not apply.)

Your final point is that EU Migrants are taking Jobs from the lower paid . Well with unemployment at its lowest for years Im not sure about that. They are certainly taking Jobs from the higher paid , because they earn per capita 7.5% more than UK citizens. But is of MORE concern but that that they may be depressing wage growth among the Lower Paid. Let me get back on that.

[quote=cliffedwards;9104388] {quote} EU migrants account for 3.6% of the population.

yes but go to ealing and you will see the problem they are not spread out evenly and they is extra stress on services as a direct result of this ealing is just my closest to home example they are more cross the uk

And that they on average earn 7.5% pa more than UK citizens. So they have paid for what they get. FullFact the independent research charity.. estimate that in 2014, migration from the EU added 160 million in additional costs for the NHS across the UK.

they are different estimate to the one full fact have done and they say with a long term view they will take more then they put in. one of the reasons is because they will came at a later time in there life but still take out in old age if they settle so just because they give more in 2014 does not mean they will give more over the next 50 years and once you are in this loop the only fix is more migration

although there is also evidence that EU immigrants may be healthier.

yes I agree polish women are good looking on average but this is besides the point

its because they HAVENT spent the extra tax those same migrants paid in good faith, to provide for the services they paid for. And that goes for Education also.

I know the government can do a better job but it is still a up hill battle with out the ability to know who (age) and which industry they will go into and if they plan to stay long term. you can not say well this much will be in London for this long so they will need X school places so we need X school teachers some go's for houses and hospital places and how much GPs with we need the government dose not even know where they will go to make such planning.

. The question is.. how many children of marriages between UK and EU citizens OR between EU Citizens in the UK under EU FoM treaty, are coming each year to the UK, and are these numbers significant burden on the school system.

the reason is because no one knows as in my previous points you/government just do not have the information available and a good percentage of migrants will not know this information themselves life is a complicated thing its hard to plan 10years ahead. (and are these numbers significant burden on the school system) you seem to think there is a even spread across the country but this is not true so by this fact that there is not a even spread in the areas with a disproportionate amount you will have significant burden on services

And Ive NOT been able to establish that from the government statistics.


Your final point is that EU Migrants are taking Jobs from the lower paid . Well with unemployment at its lowest for years Im not sure about that.

the lower paid jobs have been hit hard just go out and talk to working class people like bricklayers/delivery drivers and much more they are not getting frustrated for no reason they have keep their mouth shut and brexit is their shout. and now the uk is looking like we may be a one party country because labour ignore the working classes. also people are class as working on zero hour contracts/temps so the conservatives are cooking the books again

Re: human rights.

The guy you quoted earlier, Edmund Burke, didn't believe people had natural human rights.

First half of this article as summary: http://harvardpolitics.com/covers/conservatism-and-human-rights/

The YouGov question isn't a good one.

Because it asks you whether or not you believe in innate human rights, which you may not, and
then it assumes that you don't wish to give
some kind of rights.
I think you can hold the position of not believing
in human rights as being some kind of innate
thing, and yet believe that we should have
some rights at all time.

That would be close to my position, caveat being that convicted criminals lose certain
rights, such as freedom on a temporary basis.
Im not sure if I believe in the notion of human
rights as natural or innate but I think when you
have a liberal democratic government there
must be some enshrined rights. So I don't really
have an option which is appropriate to my view
on that question.

Not entirely sure what the above question has to do with Brexit.