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Price Will Tell - Supply/Demand Price Action Trading

  • #1,021
  • Aug 23, 2016 10:01am Aug 23, 2016 10:01am
Quoting NaughtyPip
Eurcad i believ will move down to next daily demand / support, i missed the entry though so im hoping for a push back up/double top kind of config to get me in to the sell. {image}
One of the very few traders in my circle of friends with the balls to put up or shut up, and post his analysis before the fact.

A real, genuine gent
  • #1,022
  • Aug 23, 2016 10:07am Aug 23, 2016 10:07am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} One of the very few traders in my circle of friends with the balls to put up or shut up, and post his analysis before the fact. A real, genuine gent
Why thankyou sir

Dax looks pretty good. I can't trade this one due to position sizing unfortunately

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  • #1,023
  • Aug 23, 2016 10:09am Aug 23, 2016 10:09am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} T/P hit. I analyse and trade through the line before the fact. I suggest that if you can't, won't, or have a problem doing that - then this thread ain't for you

Nice work mate
  • #1,024
  • Aug 23, 2016 10:10am Aug 23, 2016 10:10am
Quoting NaughtyPip
{quote} Why thankyou sir Dax looks pretty good. I can't trade this one due to position sizing unfortunately {image}
I don't trade the DAX. Done for today anyhow. Sun's shining and I should go out because if stay in and keep posting I'm going to end up regretting what I say.
  • #1,025
  • Aug 23, 2016 10:12am Aug 23, 2016 10:12am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} T/P hit. I analyse and trade through the line before the fact. I suggest that if you can't, won't, or have a problem doing that - then this thread ain't for you

Great for us good one Sim
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,026
  • Aug 23, 2016 10:21am Aug 23, 2016 10:21am
Quoting Achlys
{quote} This is what i see. demand just below. But it looks kinda spiked or compressed / consumed , so it's hard to tell if it will hold. {image}
Are you trading the 5min, the H1, the H4 or the M30????

If you check my original chart it was a M15 trade.

My advice (take it or leave it) is to learn how to read a chart on 1 x TF only.

Later on you can factor in the higher/lower TF stuff. But initially spend the time and effort in just learning to read 1 x TF.

Regarding all that fakeout business - sometimes the charts just don't offer a trade. But we don't worry about that because we just focus on where the charts do offer us a trade.

Post your charts in here if you like. Keep your annotation clean and clear - this doesn't just help others to read your charts, it also allows you to build your own knowledge of your charts - the SD/SR and PA that describes them.


Remember; no one owns the truth. And there is no question about charts that is a silly question.
  • #1,027
  • Aug 23, 2016 1:30pm Aug 23, 2016 1:30pm
Quoting simond2002
{quote} T/P hit. I analyse and trade through the line before the fact. I suggest that if you can't, won't, or have a problem doing that - then this thread ain't for you
Oic..thank you.
  • #1,028
  • Edited 1:48pm Aug 23, 2016 1:32pm | Edited 1:48pm
USDCAD M15

It closed the gap today. I wasn't interested to buy that demand zone on account of the fact that it would be buying straight into the origin of the bearish breakout.

Taking a day off trading tomorrow but will keep an eye on this pair at the SR/demand annotated.

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  • #1,029
  • Edited 6:39pm Aug 24, 2016 6:25pm | Edited 6:39pm
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Are you trading the 5min, the H1, the H4 or the M30???? If you check my original chart it was a M15 trade. My advice (take it or leave it) is to learn how to read a chart on 1 x TF only. Later on you can factor in the higher/lower TF stuff. But initially spend the time and effort in just learning to read 1 x TF. Regarding all that fakeout business - sometimes the charts just don't offer a trade. But we don't worry about that because we just focus on where the charts do offer us a trade. Post your charts in here if you like. Keep your annotation...
Hello Simond2002

I usually trade the daily. However i'm trying to trade lower time frames (scalp , find as many opportunities as possible) , but i think i still have a mental block.)
I feel like i'm missing too many opportunities. You had the balls to take that trade but unlike you , i needed more confirmation (even though the demand seemed weakened or partially consumed. I wasn't sure if it was gonna hold , so i waited for price to engulf it. (or not) but i wanted to see some sort of reaction (engulf or bouncing)

Worst of all , even after the engulf , i didn't take the "touch trade" , i needed even more confirmation (because price stoped at the SR line. I could've placed my stop loss above the source , and place my pending order right at the source but i still would've missed the entry by a few millimeters.

There was another opportunity for entry though. (see my chart).
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I wish i could see what you see , but i don't. (not yet at least). I'm at a stage where i look for 2X confirmations (engulf + investigate entry without touch trade unless price touches the source)

Am i too conservative ? (maybe for nothing). What gave you the confidence that it would drop like a brick through that demand ? (were you looking at a correlation ?)
Please , do not hesitate to correct me if you're seeing anything wrong with my chart.
  • #1,030
  • Aug 25, 2016 4:00am Aug 25, 2016 4:00am
Quoting Achlys
{quote} Hello Simond2002 I usually trade the daily. However i'm trying to trade lower time frames (scalp , find as many opportunities as possible) , but i think i still have a mental block.) I feel like i'm missing too many opportunities. You had the balls to take that trade but unlike you , i needed more confirmation (even though the demand seemed weakened or partially consumed. I wasn't sure if it was gonna hold , so i waited for price to engulf it. (or not) but i wanted to see some sort of reaction (engulf or bouncing) Worst of all , even...
If you're now going as low as M1 charts having looked mostly at D1 charts then it's not that surprising you feel like you're missing opportunities. As C-12 pointed out recently, Daily opportunities don't come around that often, which is common-sense if we think about it because every candle takes one full day to form. But what happens if we suddenly start looking on the M15 TF, open say, 10 x pairs, and watch over one or two sessions? Suddenly our eyes are dancing all over the charts and observing potential at every step.

I understand the "mental block" but this may be more to do with the fact that new information is presenting itself to you, and unfortunately it takes time for the brain to process - some times a very long time. When I look at your charts I see a lot of over-analysis. But remember, this may be due to the fact that you're taking in new information. Conversely, by not diving in "willy-nilly" trading stuff you're uncertain about, you're really exhibiting a mature and business-like approach to your learning, which you should actually pat yourself on the back for.

It wasn't about having balls when I took that trade, even if I did use the word "balls" later on (although this was more because I get exasperated when traders educate after-the-fact, which is never what this thread was intended to be about). At the time I posted that entry, I was certain about my own analysis (this obviously doesn't mean a 100% hit-rate). I was just happy with what I was seeing, including the risk, so I entered the market and evidently posted some follow through on the thread.

What I'm seeing is SR/SD and the Price-Action that describes it. One of the (many) issues we encounter when learning trading (I noticed this quite early on in my own conversations with other traders) is that the terms, Support/Resistance/Supply/Demand/Price-Action/Order-Flow are very often banded about by traders who it turns out can't articulate what these terms really mean. Ironically this doesn't necessarily make them bad traders, but the result for those of us still trying to learn the basics is, confusion.

At its most basic the market actually only offers us supply/demand traders a few options. We can buy/sell reversals at swing-point supply and demand zones. Or we can buy and sell at areas that we have deemed to be SR, and where we anticipate SD zones (swings) will form on the way down (or up) as continuation. I don't wish to expand on this most basic concept any further because I don't want to confuse, and to be honest, it's better the individual trader discovers certain aspects himself so that he can make them his own. My advice, however, would be to dispense with the over-analysis and just go back to chart markup 101. Forget the EURCAD trade, open a new chart - any chart, on say the M15 TF only and mark out with a few simple lines where the SD swing zones are, and where the current areas of SR lie and where new SR and fresh SD zones may form.

Institutional buying and selling creates the market. We retail are very low in the pecking order and must learn to follow the SD/SR and the Price-Action that describes them, which the institutions leave in their wake. As the interplay between buying and selling unfolds, and price moves between supply and demand, demand and supply, the institutions leave behind them in the market the above phenomena described. For us, in a visual sense these phenomena can be thought of as work tools scattered about a garage floor. They're our tools, and if we're going to work on the engine and get it running, we first need to be able to properly identify them.
  • #1,031
  • Aug 25, 2016 5:55am Aug 25, 2016 5:55am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} If you're now going as low as M1 charts having looked mostly at D1 charts then it's not that surprising you feel like you're missing opportunities. As C-12 pointed out recently, Daily opportunities don't come around that often, which is common-sense if we think about it because every candle takes one full day to form. But what happens if we suddenly start looking on the M15 TF, open say, 10 x pairs, and watch over one or two sessions? Suddenly our eyes are dancing all over the charts and observing potential at every step. I understand the...
Yes , i know what you mean. Many traders use different "trading lingo" or mix them up and it can be quite confusing.
For me , what i call SR is a key point where there's a clear resistance or support point that's broken and used again. (where price tests the zone from the other side). I view most "pivots" as SR too. (same difference to me because both are key points on the chart).

For instance , this was the trade before the fact.
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See the Red line ? (the pivot)
Attached Image


We can see on the left side that price breaks it on the bullish side then tests it (and progressively consumes or weakens this zone , on the other side...This zone is first used as resistance then as support. For me that's what i call SR.

You took that trade before the break...I had to wait for the return to that SR line. (price went there perfectly on its return)
As illustrated here
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So that could've been a touch trade. But i still waited to see a clearer picture on m1 for entry. (for my R/R , i don't want my stop loss to be too wide)

I still fail to understand how you did it though. lol I'm guessing you were looking at the inermediate SR right above , at:
Attached Image


Or maybe , you simply waited for a convincing close below this defined zone for confirmation ?
Attached Image
  • #1,032
  • Aug 25, 2016 6:15am Aug 25, 2016 6:15am
Quoting Achlys
I still fail to understand how you did it though. lol I'm guessing you were looking at the inermediate SR right above , at: {image} Or maybe , you simply waited for a convincing close below this defined zone for confirmation ? {image}

In real-time, the bearish breakout was obviously the heads up.

I sold bearish chart PA (a QM basically) on the retest of the breakout.

I can't pretend it was the perfect entry (hence the comment about preferring to see the market trade below 1.4616) but the stop was in the right place, as was the target.

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  • #1,033
  • Aug 25, 2016 8:18am Aug 25, 2016 8:18am
Quoting Achlys
For me , what i call SR is a key point where there's a clear resistance or support point that's broken and used again.
And so, what is support and resistance? What I mean by that is, what is it in terms you can describe in words - describe in terms of order flow - buyers and sellers? What exactly is support and resistance?

Quoting Achlys
See the Red line ? (the pivot)
Again, what is a pivot? I know we can see these things on charts. But we can also see things in clouds. The human eye and brain can see almost anything they want. But to describe what it is, i.e. to go beyond the abstract, that's quite a bit different. In terms of order-flow, what is a pivot?

Quoting Achlys
So that could've been a touch trade. But i still waited to see a clearer picture on m1 for entry.
Sounds like an oxymoron. It's either a touch-trade or not, no? Why wait for clear pictures on M1?

I don't mean to have a go at you in public. For every trade you "coulda" taken, I "coulda" taken one too. Maybe a lot more in fact, who knows. But on your "would/coulda/shouldas" are you journaling them? Are you organising screenshots into folders and arranging these in easily accessible, readable and meaningful form so that next time the market manifests in this way, you're better prepared?
  • #1,034
  • Aug 25, 2016 8:46am Aug 25, 2016 8:46am
EURCAD in H1 supply.

Will watch on M30/H1 and see how it plays out.

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  • #1,035
  • Aug 25, 2016 8:50am Aug 25, 2016 8:50am
GBPJPY M15

A very good chart for manually marking out support/resistance/supply/demand.

Again, no one owns the truth but anyone care to have a go and see if our charts are in agreement?

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  • #1,036
  • Aug 25, 2016 9:22am Aug 25, 2016 9:22am
Hi Simond , here's my take on GJ trickling down the supply line with demand tight up it's derri,
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  • #1,037
  • Aug 25, 2016 9:26am Aug 25, 2016 9:26am
Quoting Squiggles
Hi Simond , here's my take on GJ trickling down the supply line with demand tight up it's derri, {image}
Hi Squiggles,

For me - similar. Was hoping to see 132.20 today but it's not happened. Intraday SR looks like it's holding things up.

Here's the screenshot I took at the time of the post:

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  • #1,038
  • Aug 25, 2016 9:38am Aug 25, 2016 9:38am
Anyone care to offer some H4 GBPAUD analysis?
  • #1,039
  • Aug 25, 2016 9:40am Aug 25, 2016 9:40am
Quoting simond2002
GBPJPY M15 A very good chart for manually marking out support/resistance/supply/demand. Again, no one owns the truth but anyone care to have a go and see if our charts are in agreement? {image}
I prefer the M30 chart, bit more zoom out.

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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,040
  • Aug 25, 2016 10:00am Aug 25, 2016 10:00am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} I prefer the M30 chart, bit more zoom out. {image}
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