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Daily Technical & Fundamental Analys

Daily Analysis from EW-Forecast | EURUSD / USDJPY / 10 Year US Notes | 23 of August

EURUSD remains on the bullish track for now since decline from 1.1368 to 1.1270 unfolded in 3 waves. It was just another correction within uptrend that can now continue up to around 1.1400 area. There are the next resistance for a possible top of EURUSD can be found.... (Read more)

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Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 23 of August

As Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole comes closer, analysts are engaging in the usual obsession over the next Fed rate hike. You can sign up for an online discussion late Friday with the WSJ Fed-watcher Hilsenrath. The WSJ also featured a story reporting that 71% of 62 analysts surveyed see the hike in December. And you have to look twice to see it’s old news, datelined August 11.... (Read more)

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Oil has dropped to minimal values of the last three weeks

On the eve of data release on stocks in US warehouses, oil is continuing to decrease in price the third week. Now markets are focused on comments from the Nigerian government. There is a possible agreement on a cease-fire with the militants. October futures fell by nearly 1.7% in New York.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analys

Fundamental Analysis | EURUSD / GBPUSD | 25 of August

Now investors' attention is focused on the upcoming performance of J.Yellen. It will take place at the summit of bankers in Jackson Hole. It is unlikely that anyone expects that the Fed chairman will talk about the Fed's future monetary policy. But investors have decided to err and withdraw some funds from stocks.... (Read more)

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Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 25 of August

We get a lot of US data today, including durables and the Markit service sector PMI. Plus the usual unemployment claims and one of the Feds, this time the Kansas City manufacturing survey. We also have to digest yesterday’s housing data—after all, housing was one of the few bright spots in the economy. And a major cause of the slump in existing home sales is — price inflation.... (Read more)

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Excess of supply > expectations on the deal between producers

Sudden decrease of oil reserves in China have supported prices for a short while. But today, at the beginning of the Asian session, markets again continued its decline of yesterday. Investors' attention is focused once again on the global excess of supply. Today at 7:00 GMT the price for Brent benchmark decreased by 10 cents to $ 48.85 per barrel.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analys

Fundamental Analysis | EURUSD / GBPUSD | 26 of August

As we expected , the euro has saved lateral movement in the range of 1.1240-1.1300. Ifo Business Climate in Germany unexpectedly fell from 108.3 to 106.2. While the forecast was 108.5. American Durable Goods Orders for July increased by 4.4% against expected growth to 3.4%.... (Read more)

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Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 26 of August

First thing this morning we get the second estimate of US GDP. Nobody is paying the slightest attention, with all eyes on Yellen. Note that the Atlanta Fed reported GDPNow at 3.4% yesterday, from 3.6% in Aug 16. The dip was due to the NAR’s forecast of a drop in residential investment growth, aka existing home sales.... (Read more)

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Decreasing of the dollar before the Yellen's speech

With reduction of the dollar, global stocks fell to two-week low in today's trading. Investors are not in hurry to become active before speech of the Head of the Fed J.Yellen. Her words can determine the future path of interest rates.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analys

Fundamental Analysis | EURUSD / GBPUSD | 29 of August

Speech of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen in Jackson Hole, as expected, became the main news of the last week. It was discussed the topic "Instruments of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve: past, present and future". Many waited for a hint on the December rate hike.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analys

Daily Analysis from EW-Forecast | USD Index / NZDUSD | 29 of August

Good morning traders! Market had a roller-coaster run on Friday after Yellen speech with higher USD at the end of the week. We have seen some important push out of a downward channel on Dollar Index which means that buck can get even stronger this week, so we will favor USD long opportunities.... (Read more)

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Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 29 of August

Traders went overboard interpreting Yellen’s statement and Fischer’s back-up as a rate hike promise before year-end. Yellen said the case for a hike has strengthened and Fischer said a hike is data-dependent—not the same thing as a commitment. But both speakers are experienced in the ways of the market.... (Read more)

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Numbers instead of a thousand words

Head of the main regulator of Eurozone Mario Draghi gave an opportunity to numbers speak for him. ECB President has not been giving comments over 5 weeks. Now he has decided to allow the economic data to predict market expectations before the upcoming summit of the ECB, which will be held on September 8.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analys

Fundamental Analysis | EURUSD / GBPUSD | 30 of August

Markets had expected a corrective movement on the background of Janet Yellen dual speech. However, the dollar has continued to strengthen. One of the main reasons - assured data on personal spending and income of Americans. Firstly data released at the expected level, and secondly the previous estimates have been revised in direction of growth.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analys

Daily Analysis from EW-Forecast | USDNOK / German DAX | 30 of August

On the 4h chart of USDNOK we are looking to the downside in the black wave 4 with invalidation levels at 8.3964. This pair is still dancing around lower trend line support and decisive push below will give us resolution that we are finally going for the target in the black wave 5.... (Read more)

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Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 30 of August

Nobody wants to think about the puzzle that is the Japanese economy, despite long-standing warnings that if we don’t learn from Japan, we will be doomed to repeat its performance. The issue today is the unemployment rate at 3%, the best since 1995) but household spending down 0.5% y/y.... (Read more)

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Prospects for the UK economy are still vague

Total number of approved Net Lending to Individuals for July fell to minimum levels of August 2015. Such scenario can be perceived as a "cooling" of market after exit of the UK from the EU. Mortgage Approvals for July decreased from 64.77 thous to 63.0 thous, according to data from the Bank of England.... (Read more)

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Daily Technical & Fundamental Analys

Fundamental Analysis | EURUSD / GBPUSD | 1 of September

Yesterday traginds were filled with diverse macroeconomic data from Eurozone and the US. Investors were able to close a part of short positions before the release of US data. Retail Sales in Germany rose from 0.6% to 1.7% against the expected 0.5%. Unemployment Change has decreased by 7 thous against last month decrease by 8 thous.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analys

Daily Analysis from EW-Forecast | USD Index / EURUSD | 1 of September

Good morning traders, The USD is still holding gains since last Friday and it appears that market will stay with this direction for some time, but as always pullbacks will occur. To be honest, an intraday price action on EURUSD is not so clearly impulsive to the downside, but USD index has much better wave count.... (Read more)