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Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 21 of October

Draghi declined to offer any specifics about extending QE (such as how long the extension might last) and ruled out a sudden ending, as well, but we still lack information about what the ECB will do to re-jigger eligibility. He did indicate that the current policy is working, a comment that probably fell on cold, deaf German ears.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analys

Fundamental Analysis | EURUSD / GBPUSD | 24 of October

Friday's trading has been passed as expected, with the full dollar superiority over their competitors. The euro had the maximum decrease by 70 points, the pound in a moment were falling down by 80 points. Important thing is that on Friday there was no any important macroeconomic data.... (Read more)

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Iraq made a shocking statement

Oil prices are again under pressure. This morning quotations moved downward against the backdrop of statements from Iraq, stating that the country will not join the production freeze deal. Meanwhile in the United States, companies are continuing to increase production volumes.... (Read more)

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Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 24 of October

It’s the third week of the month and therefore a giant calendar of releases. In the US, we get the Markit preliminary manufacturing PMI, September durables and the advance Q3 GDP (Friday). The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for Q3 is a lousy 2.0%, although the NY Fed NowCast has 2.2% and Bloomberg has 2.5%. The worrisome thing is the NY Fed also showing 1.4% for Q4.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analys

Fundamental Analysis | EURUSD / GBPUSD | 25 of October

Yesterday's news from the Eurozone became stronger than forecasts. Manufacturing PMI for October has risen from 52.6 to 53.3. Services PMI amounted to 53.5 against 52.2 in previous month. At the beginning of the European session counter-dollar currencies showed growth, but market conditions once again allowed the dollar to grow against other major currencies.... (Read more)

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Oil market is waiting for optimistic statements from the API

Oil price at today's trading was moving up against early publication of the US inventories data. However, oil quotes were limited due to comments of the OPEC representatives that allow reduction of production this year. Closer to noon, the North American WTI oil increased by 0.46% to $50.75 per barrel.... (Read more)

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Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 25 of October

We should probably be grateful that the improvement in the outlook is not triggering a taper tantrum, but the persistence of low yields is still a puzzle. The implication is that inflation expectations are still very low, or that analysts and traders can’t see central banks giving up QE at any pace that would be worrisome, or that demographic changes point to a permanently higher preference for safe assets.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analys

Fundamental Analysis | EURUSD / GBPUSD | 27 of October

Yesterday's trading session presented the high volatility of European and British currencies. Many major players have changed their positions, but trading volumes remained at the average level. So far investors are not going to stop buying the dollar.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analys

Daily Analysis from EW-Forecast | S&P500 / EURUSD | 27 of October

E-mini S&P500 turned south this week from 2149, probably into our final wave of a big triangle formation. We are talking about wave E which needs to be made by three subwaves so traders should be aware of more weakness as current bounce from 2125 looks like wave B) of E.... (Read more)

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Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 27 of October

We thought the dollar rally had gotten ahead of the yield but yesterday yield caught up, providing support. The 10-year yield closed at 1.790% and is quoted this morning at 1.823%, nicely over the last high at 1.814% from Oct 17. It’s not just the yield itself that counts, but also the differential.... (Read more)

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OPEC wants as soon as possible to balance the oil market

OPEC is going to prove to a skeptical market that it will really solve the issue with the decrease of production. But the cartel still can not get rid of the strong oil oversupply on the global market. For the first time for last eight years, OPEC wants to limit production, but research inside the cartel shows that they are unlikely to reduce the maximum reserves of oil in the next year.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analys

Fundamental Analysis | EURUSD / GBPUSD | 28 of October

Yesterday's UK data on GDP and Retail Sales released better than expected. However, it was not enough to support the euro and the pound, amid expectations for today's US data on GDP, increasing yields of the United States bonds, as well as the overall political situation.... (Read more)

Daily Technical & Fundamental Analys

Daily Analysis from EW-Forecast | EURJPY | 28 of October

On the EURJPY we are tracking a higher degree triangle correction unfolding, with price specifically trading in the fifth and final wave E. We know that each leg of the triangle correction consist out of three sub-waves so we expect a three wave rise in leg E.... (Read more)

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Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 28 of October

Yesterday we complained about both Bloomberg and the FT mentioning a shift toward more fiscal stimulus and away from the diminishing returns from ultra-accommodation. Japan has done some fiscal stimulus, to be sure, and the UK is gearing up for some in the November budget, but fiscal stimulus is not on the table in the eurozone or the US, no matter what the presidential candidates say.... (Read more)

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The consequences of Brexit inflation

British businessmen are gradually beginning to feel the negative Brexit impact on their finances. Official reports on Friday clearly demonstrated decrease in consumer pressure, and the weakening of small and medium businesses purchasing power in the UK.... (Read more)