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Let's Trade Options

  • #14,061
  • Aug 23, 2016 9:45pm Aug 23, 2016 9:45pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}What you use to analyze trades? Below is the P/L for your $12 Sep VIX long calls. You paid $2.70, so you're that deep in the hole and you'll need VIX to run to near $15 to break even. That could happen, I guess....we need something to precipitate a change of sentiment in the markets.......maybe something will go down at Jackson Hole.... {image}
I am (was) hoping for a break out above, before expiration. The charts show as you mention, yet research and everything that I have been reading claims that volatility will break above very soon. So I plunged into it lightly for now.

New stock that I am watching now and has great future potential (long term): ANET (Arista). Very small technology company with potentially large upside.

2015 growth of $80 billion to nearly half a trillion in 2026. You can check their last ER and go back till 2013.

Have not looked into the options as of yet, but as an equity it has huge potential.
  • #14,062
  • Aug 23, 2016 10:31pm Aug 23, 2016 10:31pm
chart is ^VIX monthly candles, last 15 years worth. Check out 2004-2007, ^VIX scuddling along, barely a spike above 20.....no guarantees we won't see that again. Lots of hazards on the horizon.....as I have mentioned above, I have small bets on a vol pop in the week after the Sep FOMC.....prolly a pipe dream....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-08-23_2024vix2.png Size: 53 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,063
  • Aug 23, 2016 10:39pm Aug 23, 2016 10:39pm
Quoting The Fool
chart is ^VIX monthly candles, last 15 years worth. Check out 2004-2007, ^VIX scuddling along, barely a spike above 20.....no guarantees we won't see that again. Lots of hazards on the horizon.....as I have mentioned above, I have small bets on a vol pop in the week after the Sep FOMC.....prolly a pipe dream.... {image}
Historically (last year anyways) and present economic stats show volatility change. But as you know this bull run is based on fiction. I can't see this being so for too long. Eventually something has to break and fall. So I'm in and possibly too early, yet don't want to miss the ride. The pro for me is that I'm working in Asia, and timing is not in my favor (12 hrs ahead of the opening). I predicted the charts wrong after the Brexit, when the VIX separated itself from the DOW due to options activity. I like to believe that this will not happen this time. We are long due for a correction. All we need now is for an interest rate hike to butter it up.

Yesterday is history. Tomorrow is a mystery
  • #14,064
  • Aug 23, 2016 10:55pm Aug 23, 2016 10:55pm
Quoting The Fool
chart is ^VIX monthly candles, last 15 years worth. Check out 2004-2007, ^VIX scuddling along, barely a spike above 20.....no guarantees we won't see that again. Lots of hazards on the horizon.....as I have mentioned above, I have small bets on a vol pop in the week after the Sep FOMC.....prolly a pipe dream.... {image}
If the markets heads southerly; SVXY is cheap for puts.
  • #14,065
  • Aug 24, 2016 2:28am Aug 24, 2016 2:28am
Quoting peterdrill
If the markets heads southerly; SVXY is cheap for puts.
SVXY sucks.I am still raising cash....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,066
  • Aug 24, 2016 3:47am Aug 24, 2016 3:47am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}SVXY sucks.I am still raising cash....
I feel the same way but its cheap in comparison to UVXY
  • #14,067
  • Aug 24, 2016 9:02am Aug 24, 2016 9:02am
Hello guys, i'm an options newbie.
I would like to know if there is any way to bet with options on credit (net) for the Oct/Nov expirations that volatility will rise. In your experience, are the options the most efficient way to long vix?
I mean, historically levels below this one haven't been seen in decades, so with a limited risk i would like to place my bet.

Thanks for help
  • #14,068
  • Aug 24, 2016 2:48pm Aug 24, 2016 2:48pm
Quoting lemming78
Hello guys, i'm an options newbie. .......i would like to place my bet.
I like trading options.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,069
  • Aug 24, 2016 6:35pm Aug 24, 2016 6:35pm
Will oyul slide into the Fall? Seasonality + stronger USD? Looking at FXC, the loonie etf - the Sep/Oct $75 put calendar debits 35c, the $74 15c....maybe grab summa both.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,070
  • Aug 25, 2016 1:54am Aug 25, 2016 1:54am
IF JY gives the bastards an excuse to move the shit in the thin week after J-Hole, maybe they will. The put fly bridges down to cheap put verts for a solid safe downside
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-08-25_0000SPX.png Size: 84 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,071
  • Aug 25, 2016 8:02am Aug 25, 2016 8:02am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I like trading options.
thanks for this helpful answer.
  • #14,072
  • Aug 25, 2016 12:54pm Aug 25, 2016 12:54pm
Quoting lemming78
thanks for this helpful answer.
I thought it matched the quality of your question.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,073
  • Aug 25, 2016 4:12pm Aug 25, 2016 4:12pm
Quoting The Fool
IF JY gives the bastards an excuse to move the shit in the thin week after J-Hole, maybe they will. The put fly bridges down to cheap put verts for a solid safe downside
FILLED a SPXW 8/31 put fly - 2150/2130/2110 - @ $1.25. Let's bring the bots back from the Hamptons and sell everything....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,074
  • Aug 26, 2016 9:37am Aug 26, 2016 9:37am
Quoting The Fool
FILLED a SPXW 8/31 put fly - 2150/2130/2110 - @ $1.25. Let's bring the bots back from the Hamptons and sell everything....
DID ANOTHER 8/31 fly, but 2170/2150/2130 for $1.35
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,075
  • Aug 26, 2016 2:14pm Aug 26, 2016 2:14pm
SPY diddling around $216-$218 the last 6 weeks - maybe chickenhawk Fed noise from the J-Hole will get a break going? Next week should be thin, pre Labor Day - a thin market breakdown would make me smile, positioned well bearish in equities.....plus some long vol spreads as noted above.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,076
  • Aug 26, 2016 9:18pm Aug 26, 2016 9:18pm
In STX (Seagate Tech) now at the Sept strike 31 Call. Pattern seems to be breaking out to the upside today indicating its next leg higher.
  • #14,077
  • Aug 28, 2016 8:02pm Aug 28, 2016 8:02pm
I expect a thin week pre-Labor Day and pre-NFP. The Sept NFP sets up a good buy rumor opp: another big NFP number will get the jawbones working about a hawkish Sept FOMC, so we could see some actual (down) movement in equities in Sept up to the 9/21 FOMC show. A Sept ffr hike gets the CB divergence juices working: stronger USD, weaker commodities, less support for equities, etc. I am shopping cheap SPX 2-day or 5-day SPX put calendars in the FOMC week into the following week; also shopping the old cheap UVXY call verts in the same time frame.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,078
  • Aug 28, 2016 8:28pm Aug 28, 2016 8:28pm
spread SPX put calendars around a bit in the FOMC week - maybe some pay as calendars, maybe some you keep on for a big drop on the ffr hike
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-08-28_1824spx1.png Size: 90 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-08-28_1825spx2.png Size: 85 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,079
  • Aug 28, 2016 8:34pm Aug 28, 2016 8:34pm
Quoting The Fool
spread SPX put calendars around
do same with 9/2-9/6 SPX put calendars, maybe catch a dump off the 9/2 NFP
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,080
  • Aug 28, 2016 8:38pm Aug 28, 2016 8:38pm
Quoting The Fool
do same with 9/2-9/6 SPX put calendars, maybe catch a dump off the 9/2 NFP
I see they have 9/6 and 9/7 too - so still 3 SPX w-expiries in Labor Day week, will check those for some cheap spread opps
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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