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Let's Trade Options

  • #14,041
  • Aug 19, 2016 9:27pm Aug 19, 2016 9:27pm
cool, pete, good to see you here......I'll check out those names later.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,042
  • Aug 20, 2016 11:44am Aug 20, 2016 11:44am
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...134542550.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,043
  • Aug 20, 2016 5:36pm Aug 20, 2016 5:36pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I heard that. Something else blows: I had a spread mismatch go against me at E*Slobs this week. No margin call, but they were holding some $k's in margin and my bp was near nill. This was for some VXX calendars that were split and are now all worthless....I'm just letting them run to expire worthless. So I called in. First guy, I tried walking him thru all my valid margined trades. He did not know what a diagonal spread is. OK, let me get you to somebody in our derivatives dept......on hold 20 min....next guy, did not know what a diagonal...
Took it "slightly" up the glory hole this month, basically erasing July's and August's profits with this seven week "green candle" run ... . Decided to walk away from a few broken setups, which I don't usually do, but just couldn't stand working them for God knows how long back to scratch ... . Best to take the hit now, free up the buying power ... . (Shrugs).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #14,044
  • Aug 20, 2016 6:02pm Aug 20, 2016 6:02pm
This week for ER. After several hours of detailing, I finalized these for my short term portfolio:

BBY: estimate at $0.42 per share but the street has it at $0.48. Investor sentiment is 40% expecting earnings beat. Short interest has increased 15% since last ER. Options pricing in a 7% move on ER and stock has averaged a 5% move in recent qr.

DLTR: estimate at $0.73 per share but the street has it at $0.75. Investor sentiment is 78% expecting earnings beat. Short interest has decreased 30% since last ER. Stock has averaged a 6% move in recent qr.

GME: estimate at $0.26 per share but the street has it at $0.31. Investor sentiment is 74% expecting earnings beat. Short interest has decreased 12% since last ER. Options pricing in a 9% move on ER and stock has averaged a 4% move in recent qr.

ZOES: estimate at $0.06 per share but the street has it at $0.08. Investor sentiment is 84% expecting earnings beat. Short interest has increased 15% since last ER. Stock has averaged a 7% move in recent qr.

TOL: estimate at $0.63 per share but the street has it at $0.65. Investor sentiment is 79% expecting earnings beat. Short interest has decreased 2% since last ER. Options pricing in a 5% move on ER and stock has averaged a 6% move in recent qr.

Best of the lot: DG: estimate at $1.09 per share but the street has it at $1.11. Investor sentiment is 75% expecting earnings beat. Short interest has decreased 37% since last ER. Options pricing in a 5% move on ER and stock has averaged a 5% move in recent qr. August 17th their was some noticeable buying contracts on the Sept $92.50 call (3,071 contracts).

Good luck (to me anyhow).

I'm still a VIX bullish contender and my antennas are sky high; seeking any anomalies for extra terrestrials (hopefully this week).
  • #14,045
  • Aug 21, 2016 12:05am Aug 21, 2016 12:05am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Took it "slightly" up the glory hole... . (Shrugs).
lotta rectal pain going around....I have lost money on most DC setups I had positioned for ER's: there was no iv rush on my targets - some bled iv going into the ER's. Short vol? lol, those trades have lost money, too - if you look at the ^VIX it is scudding along a bottom $11.xx for over a month and it won't break $11 unless there are some further upside beakouts in SPX. I have made a little money on SPX call spreads, but those have kinda sucked, too, cuz SPX is scudding along the top rail R @ 2,220. All losses small but they add up when no winners to balance out. My volume is going down. It just doesn't pay to trade options when there's no premium and nothing's moving much. I'm losing interest in trading. The other (speculative) thing I know how to do - RE investing - well, that's pretty much dead, too, cuz we're at the top of that market, too (around here anyway). I am raising cash and have nothing to do with it, will just be sitting, I guess, until things change.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,046
  • Aug 21, 2016 7:41pm Aug 21, 2016 7:41pm
Two more that I will follow Monday:

URS Jan 20 72.50 strike call. Stock has nearly doubled since touching a 3 year low in early Feb, and just hit a new high late last month.

JMP Sept 62.50 strike call. Expiration of more than 35k 65 strike calls last Friday, which eliminated any potential options related resistance. Aug series was notably call heavy compared to Sept, so JPM likely won't encounter any pressure from big call open interest accumulations over the short term (as I see it anyways).

Still looking for the VIX bull nearby.
  • #14,047
  • Aug 21, 2016 8:58pm Aug 21, 2016 8:58pm
Quoting peterdrill
Still looking for the VIX bull nearby.
http://www.markbeast.com/endworld/ju...-end-world.htm

Maybe the beginning of the end times will give us some good trading opps?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,048
  • Aug 21, 2016 10:03pm Aug 21, 2016 10:03pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}http://www.markbeast.com/endworld/ju...-end-world.htm Maybe the beginning of the end times will give us some good trading opps?
Too biblical for me. I prefer scientifical facts but thanks for sharing fool.
  • #14,049
  • Aug 21, 2016 10:43pm Aug 21, 2016 10:43pm
Big speculators are currently net short 114,088 contracts in VIX futures, just under the record level set earlier this month, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission positioning data through August 16.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUSKCN10W0US

Is the VIX ripe for a rally?
  • #14,050
  • Aug 21, 2016 10:43pm Aug 21, 2016 10:43pm
Quoting peterdrill
Too biblical for me. I prefer scientifical facts but thanks for sharing fool.
yeah, Schemitah (?) and yuan going into the SDR's on 10/2/2016....I made a half-hearted attempt to get interested, caught up on some nap time instead....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,051
  • Aug 21, 2016 10:45pm Aug 21, 2016 10:45pm
Quoting peterdrill
Is the VIX ripe for a rally?
prolly not til after US elections 11/8....or 2017...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,052
  • Aug 22, 2016 5:44pm Aug 22, 2016 5:44pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}prolly not til after US elections 11/8....or 2017...
Probably right but I nakedly jumped into the pond today, and officially back into VIX (bullish). I might of over estimated myself, but my greedy subconscious went into cruise control. All reads indicate I may be right but then again, I have proven myself wrong before.
  • #14,053
  • Aug 23, 2016 1:17am Aug 23, 2016 1:17am
What was your trade?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,054
  • Aug 23, 2016 3:07am Aug 23, 2016 3:07am
Quoting The Fool
What was your trade?
12 and 13 call. Several others looked attractive but after August expiration, they appeared the best of the batch.
  • #14,055
  • Aug 23, 2016 2:49pm Aug 23, 2016 2:49pm
Quoting peterdrill
12 and 13 call. Several others looked attractive but after August expiration, they appeared the best of the batch.
Not sure what your trade was, there, Pete - long VIX $12 and $13 calls? What expiration? What did you pay? I can't offer much feedback if I don't have those kinds of details.

Except to say: Long Vol?!? omg, what a great way to lose money.

But I am in the same boat - just throwing out some small bait. Looking at the slim chance for a Sept FOMC ffr hike and a rise in volatility into that event and in the week after, I filled a UVXY Sept 30 $21/25/29 call fly for 30c...........
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,056
  • Aug 23, 2016 2:52pm Aug 23, 2016 2:52pm
Quoting The Fool
Looking at the slim chance for a Sept FOMC ffr hike and a rise in volatility into that event and in the week after, I filled a UVXY Sept 30 $21/25/29 call fly for 30c...........
if UVXY slides hard into the Sep FOMC I might roll down the $29 calls and make a combo call vert @ $20/$25 approximately.....we'll see.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,057
  • Aug 23, 2016 2:55pm Aug 23, 2016 2:55pm
OK. Not if, but when. Get "when" right to make money, the rest is all just hot air....
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-...141908353.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,058
  • Aug 23, 2016 5:07pm Aug 23, 2016 5:07pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Not sure what your trade was, there, Pete - long VIX $12 and $13 calls? What expiration? What did you pay? I can't offer much feedback if I don't have those kinds of details. Except to say: Long Vol?!? omg, what a great way to lose money. But I am in the same boat - just throwing out some small bait. Looking at the slim chance for a Sept FOMC ffr hike and a rise in volatility into that event and in the week after, I filled a UVXY Sept 30 $21/25/29 call fly for 30c...........
Hey Fool. Sept calls; 12 strike at 2.7 and 13 strike at 1.95. Yes I know, great way to louse money but..........................
  • #14,059
  • Aug 23, 2016 6:46pm Aug 23, 2016 6:46pm
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000545178

CNBC VXX a buy and I also read on Reuters buts that all simply opinion.
  • #14,060
  • Aug 23, 2016 9:29pm Aug 23, 2016 9:29pm
Quoting peterdrill
Hey Fool. Sept calls; 12 strike at 2.7 and 13 strike at 1.95. Yes I know, great way to louse money but..........................
What you use to analyze trades? Below is the P/L for your $12 Sep VIX long calls. You paid $2.70, so you're that deep in the hole and you'll need VIX to run to near $15 to break even. That could happen, I guess....we need something to precipitate a change of sentiment in the markets.......maybe something will go down at Jackson Hole....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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