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The Really Useless Thread

  • #142,641
  • Aug 23, 2016 11:35am Aug 23, 2016 11:35am
I realize you are probably right sisse and I wanted to hold on but my leverage on adding to my shorts destroyed that chance. FIFO handcuffed me on even trying to release some of my positions. I tried to out-guess the market based on what I saw was FA sound. MACRO DATA and FA aligning and have been. Just a few hiccups but not in comparison to EU and cutting rates.

My hope is I am able to position for the CHEAPER seats and recoup the loss. I couldn't hold on to a run to .143X nor .17XX. FACT. As a result, I had to decide what allows me to stay in this arena and trade? If I am wrong and it runs to .143X that would take out over 3/4 of my account and .17XX (Gone). Right now I have the ability to position for the GU and EU. The only saving grace I will have will be to use the capital I have not lost to build back up. But, positioning for it will be the KEY to it with TIMING. I must get a good entry and leverage will have to be in check in case there is a WTF moment.

This is my PLAN.......

I felt closing the position would discredit me here as I have held on for so long! But, this year I have learned holding onto things requires wisdom and balance. There are times to hold on longer and times to let go. I am not a good trader as you claimed in the past as I would have recovered from this bad position in March. I would have made better choices to not add the way i did to my SHORTS believing I knew the MARKET was now going in my favor. I would have exited out of some of my positions earlier too!

I didn't have an exit plan, held on too long, BAD MAP, and ect.....all the things that make 99% of us here fail. I am the that guy! But, maybe by the end of the year I might break even or a little better and be a Good Trader and show you that your time here is not in vain!
  • #142,642
  • Aug 23, 2016 11:54am Aug 23, 2016 11:54am
Quoting IMARICH1
.... I felt closing the position would discredit me here as I have held on for so long...
Non sense on this part...no real trader would discredit you for closing with a loss. Only idiots, newbies and fortune tellers will do that. However, sitting 9 months with a position without a plan and tracking market direction as headless chicken is not the way to make such big swing. Harsh or not harsh thats is my 2 cents of what you should get from this process.

--> Your main issues is what we call in Economics sunk cost.

"In economics and business decision-making, a sunk cost is a cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered. Sunk costs (also known as retrospective costs) are sometimes contrasted with prospective costs, which are future costs that may be incurred or changed if an action is taken."

--> You got married with a position and you have to be thankful that EURO has expend most of the year in Neutral and the last Q in chop. If you would have been caught in the wrong side your account should have been vanished long time ago.

--> The biggest lesson is not that the next leg you have been waiting for will trigger this week(s) (and this will be v. painful to watch for you if it pans out to the short side) but from your comments you still seem to be struggling and a lot (and I know is v. hard to blow real $$$) to close the chapter and put all the lessons you learn in this trade alone (if any) in the next map...

There are very quality spots in the last few pages. You biggest and worst inner demons are about to pop up now that you close the position so try to keep a cool head and wrap up in with pencil and paper what you learnt and how to move forward before you jump in again ...

GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,643
  • Aug 23, 2016 11:54am Aug 23, 2016 11:54am
Quoting sisse
Quality posts ... interesting readings.A few comments with Europe going home. {quote} Well first the comment was related to Eur/USD. Second, mentioned before. You are assuning Neutral implies only going up. I dunno why you assume that. Neutral mid term means: without changes in the current FA we won't be able to break the low of the range prolly till the end of the year. No more no less for now. Third and this is related to some other posters about the FED. My view on the FEd is radically different from most of the comments here. We are in a completely...
but if we have mid term neutral on the background of the super interesting FA you wrote...... do I understand well that it means as follows....

we have neutral because our interpretation of FED reaction function says FED is not gonna move (for reasons you described) = FED is not going to build expectations (if does, only marginally) =) so we dont expect the expectations to be built so neutral stays until proven opposite (X opposite in a way that FED has decided to procede)

so to move to (strong) sell mid term there r 2 options:

a) FED procedes with hike cycle (as one of the 2 bad options - other one being staying with low rates) - USD side force
b) Eurozone falls into full crisis (banking or other) - EUR side force + USD via risk-off

P.S.: if the reality is as you described the CBs created enviroment which is gonna blow either way.
  • #142,644
  • Aug 23, 2016 12:12pm Aug 23, 2016 12:12pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} but if we have mid term neutral on the background of the super interesting FA you wrote......
P.S.: if the reality is as you described the CBs created enviroment which is gonna blow either way.
..
Yes Chester thats exactly what I have been arguing the last couple of months. I believe we already crossed the point of no return regardless of what the FED this year. Don't want to jump the gun with the outlook 2017 yet but we are pretty much going to move from happy loose free money monetary policy to begging for fiscal policy and public spending to save the day (hopefully without tax payer money again).

On your options. Yes indeed.

1. Yellen slip of mouth for hikes sep/or this year or keep the status quo until Equities complete one more extension on free money;
2. Eurozone or Brexit any will do the trick. Italian referendum coming but bank crisis would be set on motion if BOE expectation for cuts again Nov are confirmed by bad Q3 numbers.

If we are still in chop till Nov (not expected by anyone / I seriously doubt we hold past Sep) Trump or the political debacle of Brexit and article 50 and all the mumbojumbo with French/German and potentially Scottish election on sight, all with bond markets pointing to chaos when the correction finally comes

Nearly permabear in the global economy as you can see but macro numbers in US and to A LOT lesser extend in the Eurozone are holding and they will need major blow to turn sharply down ...so for now eyes in currencies to receive the blow and correction.. the rest of the board still too early to call...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,645
  • Aug 23, 2016 12:38pm Aug 23, 2016 12:38pm
@imarich ... Sooner or later you are gonna regret and get a good lesson on how to get in and if things goes wrong how to hold on to it ... Anyways it's a lesson ... Hardcore lesson ... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,646
  • Aug 23, 2016 12:55pm Aug 23, 2016 12:55pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes Chester thats exactly what I have been arguing the last couple of months. I believe we already crossed the point of no return regardless of what the FED this year. Don't want to jump the gun with the outlook 2017 yet but we are pretty much going to move from happy loose free money monetary policy to begging for fiscal policy and public spending to save the day (hopefully without tax payer money again). On your options. Yes indeed. 1. Yellen slip of mouth for hikes sep/or this year or keep the status quo until Equities complete one more...
super, just a few more idea/notes/questions.

1. chart: shows my map for mid term sell which we had before.

2. chart: same chart modified to neutral!! - lvls are the same, we just remove the leg and create the range =) what it means? E/U is still very very close to choose your poison time mid term no matter if we have neutral or sell. In any case - Im gonna enter on the way down not now.

-------------------------

My 1st Q: you wrote "If we are still in chop till Nov (not expected by anyone / I seriously doubt we hold past Sep)" = do you mean my mid term range on E/U (2. chart)?

===)

we said we do not expect yellen to set E/U sell mid term via rates =) means you expect the mid term sell from the E/U side = Italy? Brexit consequences? (or later with all the other mess). Right?

but if those are our expectations should not we already have sell? or are those expectations of ours too hard to call when it comes to time that its too early to call and its necessary to wait for the things to move first?
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  • #142,647
  • Aug 23, 2016 1:07pm Aug 23, 2016 1:07pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} super, just a few more idea/notes/questions. 1. chart: shows my map for mid term sell which we had before. 2. chart: same chart modified to neutral!! - lvls are the same, we just remove the leg and create the range =) what it means? E/U is still very very close to choose your poison time mid term no matter if we have neutral or sell. In any case - Im gonna enter on the way down not now. ------------------------- My 1st Q: you wrote "If we are still in chop till Nov (not expected by anyone / I seriously doubt we hold past Sep)" = do you mean...
What I think sisse is trying to say is that we are already in a chop zone but not in monthly bars ... Make the bars quarterly you will see we are in chop zone ... And remain in chop zone at least till Nov ... Hope I am right ... For me sep hike is still valid with many confirmation's ... And as per the schedule we will have only one hike this year .. Rest bazooka'd will come from Europe itself ... Whether it's brexit or any other blah blah country ... We will see a lot of short circuit on the currencies as we say bye bye to summer ... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,648
  • Aug 23, 2016 1:18pm Aug 23, 2016 1:18pm
Quoting IMARICH1
I am the that guy! But, maybe by the end of the year I might break even or a little better and be a Good Trader and show you that your time here is not in vain!
Sorry to hear about your loss Imarich1. , thanks for sharing with us . We learn from it. Important to preserve capital, if it goes to 0 it is game over . The timing for taking the loss can be discussed. It is not about how much we win when we win. But how much we risk when we are wrong, you reached your limit and took a big loss not to risk draining your account and that is deeply respected and next time you are wrong losses will probably be smaller in % of account. Sisse set up all trades with nice R:R but when we dont follow it or/and use to high leverage we know what can happen. X my fingers that you get it back soon ( And dont try to take it all back in one leg ) . Good luck and keep up the good work.
( PS I am still euro and GBP bear against USD )
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #142,649
  • Aug 23, 2016 1:29pm Aug 23, 2016 1:29pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} s to wait for the things to move first? {image} {image}
Your charts make sense at least from my view. You got the core concepts very well rounded TA and FA wise IMO. Quality posts mate. [Newcomers and super useful content bookmark alert on chester post above for those interested]

-------------------------
On your ?

My 1st Q:you wrote "If we are still in chop till Nov (not expected by anyone / I seriously doubt we hold past Sep)"= do you mean my mid term range on E/U (2. chart)?

===) Yes your 'rainmaker' or top of the range would be taken by then.

we said we do not expect yellen to set E/U sell mid term via rates =) means you expect the mid term sell from the E/U side = Italy? Brexit consequences? (or later with all the other mess). Right?

===> Europe will trigger the capitulations moves. Sterling is already triggered but in the Euro we wont take 1.073x on FED alone becuase the divergence will be so mark in monetary policy that Euro will get weaker in absolute terms but in telative terms it will become the Golden goose as carry and cheap funding vehicle making harder to break down without a global selloff in Equities.

In simple words, yes the capitulation leg (break to 'parity') will only come from Europe.

butif those are our expectations should not we already have sell? or are those expectations of ours too hard to call when it comes to time that its too early to call and its necessary to wait for the things to move first?

No because the reason mentioned above.

This is where Imarich1 got caught Back in March while we changed mid term outlook to neutral. Negative rates with crazy QE (japan and ecb) brought unexpected consequences because the Euro became extremely attractive as funding vehicle to ride the pig in Equities shortciruiting the effectiveness of monetary policy.

But now we have confirmed Brexit and that opened a whole new chapter in the FX board as bonds went crazy and the divergence between US and the rest can be dangerous if UK and Europe enter in full recession 3.0.

As long as Europe keeps funding the rally in Equities with free money there is no a 100℅ sell. Make fed hike with a slip this friday and we may calibrate expectations....until then...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,650
  • Aug 23, 2016 1:53pm Aug 23, 2016 1:53pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Your charts make sense at least from my view. You got the core concepts very well rounded TA and FA wise IMO. Quality posts mate. [Newcomers and super useful content bookmark alert on chester post above for those interested] ------------------------- On your ? My 1st Q:you wrote "If we are still in chop till Nov (not expected by anyone / I seriously doubt we hold past Sep)"= do you mean my mid term range on E/U (2. chart)? ===) Yes your 'rainmaker' or top of the range would be taken by then. we said we do not expect yellen to set E/U sell...
Just the reminder that they decided to drag Brexit for 3 years, so enough time for setting another referendum and some dramatical changes. So maybe Brexit is not so fix after all.
But this is not so important for our trading atm .
PVSRA
  • #142,651
  • Aug 23, 2016 1:53pm Aug 23, 2016 1:53pm
omg, how can u understand all the interconnectivness!! would like to add something but first I have to study and think more.... maybe a few years more it drives me crazy that we cannot put it all together into some mathematical equation. I would be perfect university economist.... the most useless one with total obsession to models

in any case: so far situation kind of clear - mostly nothing to see til yellen. gonna watch my G/U plan first. G/U seems the one to move first. U/J too late far my taste. later we move to E/U and equities.
  • #142,652
  • Aug 23, 2016 1:58pm Aug 23, 2016 1:58pm
If any1 wants to learn how stop hunts are actually taken ... Just closely check the situation now jappening with eu and gu ... One lesson I learnt months back ... When the boat is way too loaded ... You will see how bastards show there ugly faces ... And when an calamity occurs like brexit and snb which was not expected by any banks ... Pa re-adjusts to the same ... And starts to resume with the trend
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,653
  • Aug 23, 2016 2:08pm Aug 23, 2016 2:08pm
Quoting primejarvis
If any1 wants to learn how stop hunts are actually taken ... Just closely check the situation now jappening with eu and gu ... One lesson I learnt months back ... When the boat is way too loaded ... You will see how bastards show there ugly faces ... And when an calamity occurs like brexit and snb which was not expected by any banks ... Pa re-adjusts to the same ... And starts to resume with the trend
well the boat is too loaded and the retailers get destroyed because..... as the picture explains.... its too late of course to join the party.

P.S.: stil I dont deny there are WTF moments when one does not believe there is no manipulation going on.
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  • #142,654
  • Aug 23, 2016 2:20pm Aug 23, 2016 2:20pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} well the boat is too loaded and the retailers get destroyed because..... as the picture explains.... its too late of course to join the party. P.S.: stil I dont deny there are WTF moments when one does not believe there is no manipulation going on. {image}
My view : no judgement please .. The whole game is manipulated ever sec and minute .... And I really don't think it's too late for an entry... here the MM works and the retailer's got busted out by the big whales..without proper MM and taking entries here and there or machine gun entries ... Will be out in no time ... Those who are really serious and mapping every trade are the one's who can get good returns ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,655
  • Aug 23, 2016 2:27pm Aug 23, 2016 2:27pm
Eyes on the Euro for the close, we are aligning for a 'roll' play...

Quoting chester123
...put it all together into some mathematical equation. I would be perfect university economist....
Well there are .

This is the first formula you learn in macroeconomic 101.
Y (as in GDP) = C + I + G + Xn

A IS-LM basic model will give you pretty much all the conceptual tools you need.

The problems is that if you stay in the academic field or move the maths behind to understand complex models everything gets more complicate but for trading/investing and macro analysis purposes understanding the core concepts in macroeconomics will grant you better results than a Chicago PHD graduate in pure Economics using super advanced math abstractions ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,656
  • Aug 23, 2016 2:45pm Aug 23, 2016 2:45pm
Quoting sisse
Eyes on the Euro for the close, we are aligning for a 'roll' play... {quote} Well there are . This is the first formula you learn in macroeconomic 101. Y (as in GDP) = C + I + G + Xn A IS-LM basic model will give you pretty much all the conceptual tools you need. The problems is that if you stay in the academic field or move the maths behind to understand complex models everything gets more complicate but for trading/investing and macro analysis purposes understanding the core concepts in macroeconomics will grant you better results than a Chicago...
well my problem is that I love reading about the history of economic thought so Ive done a few textooks of that, even some primary texts, but thats not so useful for trading. It´s more just of pure interest. From macro Ive done in free time Mankiw and now Im in middle of Aber/Bernanke/Croushore. And as a young rebel you always need the marx´s-soul so Piketty and Varoufakis are the ones. Only problem is Im missing economic knowledge from financial markets per se.... aka banking, stocks, valuations, money flow etc. so thats for the future. havent really decided on textbook/author.

to sum up. I have some good macro knowledge, bad knowledge of financial markets but.... what you have and cannot be found in the textbooks is the ability to actually analyze the situation and use the knowledge and to know whats important and what is not. And thats something which comes with time and experience I bet. And Im gonna learn it too (from you)!!!
  • #142,657
  • Aug 23, 2016 4:03pm Aug 23, 2016 4:03pm
...and we rolled, pretty much to 'tick' for the trigger. In strictly TA sense the current intraday highs are naked for a quick run but following the official rules we have a roll play today with Euro triggering price entry short from the set. Fibs, stochastic end longs no signals yet.

GL all already in, triggering with the roll, planning to or just waiting for ...

sisse

Quoting sisse
Iteration 19: " Retrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators"

+++++-Iteration 19+++++

" Retrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators"

Currently Euro trading @ 1.130x


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Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,658
  • Aug 23, 2016 5:26pm Aug 23, 2016 5:26pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Only problem is Im missing economic knowledge from financial markets per se.... aka banking, stocks, valuations, money flow etc. so thats for the future. havent really decided on textbook/author.
Try this textbook: Macroeconomics and the Financial System, Mankiw, Ball

Read that in my graduate course, it is an excellent book and might be what you're looking for.
  • #142,659
  • Aug 23, 2016 7:12pm Aug 23, 2016 7:12pm
Quoting sisse
Eyes on the Euro for the close, we are aligning for a 'roll' play... {quote} Well there are . This is the first formula you learn in macroeconomic 101. Y (as in GDP) = C + I + G + Xn A IS-LM basic model will give you pretty much all the conceptual tools you need. The problems is that if you stay in the academic field or move the maths behind to understand complex models everything gets more complicate but for trading/investing and macro analysis purposes understanding the core concepts in macroeconomics will grant you better results than a Chicago...
Hey Sisse, can you explain the "roll" play in more detail. I've seen you reference daily/weekly/monthly rolls many times in the past, but still don't understand what you're talking about. I searched your old posts for a more detailed explanation, but couldn't find anything to help understand it better. Thanks!!
  • #142,660
  • Aug 24, 2016 2:54am Aug 24, 2016 2:54am
Quoting sisse
As long as Europe keeps funding the rally in Equities with free money there is no a 100℅ sell.
Sisse (or anyone), really basic question about the funding currency here. I'll probably look stupid asking this but wtf! So, if EUR is being exchanged for USD so players can invest in the US stock market, then why isn't EUR/USD falling because of this? And same for the carry trades: borrowing EUR in order to exchange it for a higher yielding currency, such as NZD, should cause EUR to weaken - not strengthen - shouldn't it? The only way I can see EUR/USD getting stronger as a result of this is when the carry trade starts to unwind due to risk-off. This happened during the Greek crisis I think: EUR/USD was going up on bad news partly because players were repatriating their euros to avoid exchange rate risks in their carry trades.

So can we imply from this that EUR/USD is being supported due to an expectation that the top is near in the US stock market and people are starting to buy back their euros? I got the impression that you were implying the opposite, i.e. big players were still funding US stocks with their borrowed euros.
You reap what you sow.
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