{quote} No, Sisse changed to neutral last Thursday... {quote}
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But even in that case: im not sure about the FA logic:
===) what we know:
from last meeting FED is standing pat short term (next meeting) = no expectations of hike (non hike as a "confirmed" future fact) - neutral on the dollar side short term.
X
on mid term lvl: if I read it well, FED did not really give a hint - wait and see mode (slightly bullish) for the post-brexit effects.
==) but what I do not understand is this:
if we are to decide on the outlook (- dollar side mid term) in this case we have to FA-ly decide on the potentional existence of markets expectations of the hike in mid term.
it is a question of expectations as always ==) so lets distinguish personal vs. general expectations.
we do NOT trade personal expectations, which are just part of the cummulation of expectations of all participants - markets move with the prevailing general expectations - thats why FA is not about having personal view on macroeconomy and monetary policy but is about identifing the market interpretation of the reality as translated into the expectation of the future.
=) but thats the problem, which I think most people do not realize (maybe they do
):Do I think the FED SHOULD do it? (which is basically absolutely irrelevant from the market point of view, its an opinion not an expectation!!)
Do I think the FED WILL do it?(which is my personal expectation, but it does not have to match with the collective general expectation, which moves the market - if it does match Im lucky as Im on the right side - if not Im wrong!!)
Do I think the markets (general expectations) expect it now and will expect it (build in expectations) more/less as we approach (the only relevant question marketwise!!!!!! + the bigger difference between recent static expectation and the certainty of the future (non)existence of the fact, the bigger price movement)
Relevant is what market thinks and WILL think!! I seems to me that to trade is to guess/expect future market expectations and the reaction on subsequent non/correspondence of the expectations with the non/occurance of the fact
=) how can I answer the only relevant question = the last one? in this FED hike case:
1. actual static expectations by looking at FED funds rate futures for instance.
2. by knowing the generally accepted interpretation of FED reaction function (through that the macro news gets translated into the hike expectations)= can help us guess the FED "work" with expectations.
3. by signs in other corallated markets = equities floying high for example?? = no-one gives a f*** about hike =) risk-on.
So. To summarize: I think fed SHOULD and WILL hike mid term (personal exp) - none is relevant!!! But what would be the arguments for mid term neutral as reflected by the expectation of non-expectations of hikes on mid term?
P.S.: Im sorry its just some thoughts about the complex problem of expectations. The mid term outlook is just one particulat problem. If you sisse or someone else wants to comment on the problem of expectations generally, do it pls!
Triple play right? 
There's something about this sentence that makes me sceptical..
.... the big players are always for free money ....
