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AUD/USD

  • #98,681
  • Aug 19, 2016 2:34am Aug 19, 2016 2:34am
Quoting ell3
Sigh it's so hard to pick a top for this fella. I'm neither bearish nor bullish. three days of bad trades despite very careful trading. One moment, selling from each new high only to find it surging...the next moment buying at a dip only to find it marching down 40pips. The only trade I took was to buy at the 4h 100ma @ 7637. Took a trip to the kitchen and returned to find myself losing 20pips yet again. Suddenly the pattern drawn the last few hours appears so clearly as a consolidation. Having traded the aud heavily for most of this year, these...
i've stayed put of this pair for now, but tops looking easier to pick on Aud/Cad imo..?
  • #98,682
  • Edited 6:00am Aug 19, 2016 3:45am | Edited 6:00am
Quoting 2012mysterio
{quote} i've stayed put of this pair for now, but tops looking easier to pick on Aud/Cad imo..?
Perhaps. I used to do the EURAud and GBPAud crosses until the whole brexit thing started to heat up. I will probably revise my leverage strategy doing the AUdusd from how I've been doing it the past two months so it better fits the current sentiment and until a longer term bias becomes clearer.
  • #98,683
  • Aug 19, 2016 10:00am Aug 19, 2016 10:00am
Quoting ItsAtrap
Hello everyone. Here's a long trade I took recently, on the break of yesterday's high. The stop is just below yesterday's low. The 1st target is at twice the stop distance (green lines). AUD been in a choppy uptrend. I am attempting to profit from a resumption of the uptrend, hoping that yesterday's low was the end of the latest retracement. Apologies if the file is too big.
Hello everyone. My AUD long trade got stopped out as the London session began. However, for the rest of the day, price didn't show much conviction in continuing south, which makes me suspect that the move south was just a (successful) attempt to take out the lows of the large event-driven hourly bar (circled in red). Price often likes to take out both ends of such event-driven bars, before picking a direction. I remain long -biased overall, and have set up some buy-stop orders above today's price action, for next week.
Good weekend everyone
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  • #98,684
  • Aug 19, 2016 2:18pm Aug 19, 2016 2:18pm
Quoting ItsAtrap
{quote} Hello everyone. My AUD long trade got stopped out as the London session began. However, for the rest of the day, price didn't show much conviction in continuing south, which makes me suspect that the move south was just a (successful) attempt to take out the lows of the large event-driven hourly bar (circled in red). Price often likes to take out both ends of such event-driven bars, before picking a direction. I remain long -biased overall, and have set up some buy-stop orders above today's price action, for next week. Good weekend everyone...
You're right about events.

And I think you should've placed your SL lower, look at your 4h chart and you'll see a solid support, I'm also long but I wasn't stopped out and it was because of my SL.

Good weekend!
A good strategy for trading is... the opposite of having a bad strategy.
  • #98,685
  • Aug 20, 2016 4:21am Aug 20, 2016 4:21am
Two pertinent articles....1st.... commodities in general. 2nd...substantial rise in coal prices



http://www.miningweekly.com/article/...19/rep_id:3650


http://www.miningweekly.com/article/...016-2016-08-18
  • #98,686
  • Aug 20, 2016 3:12pm Aug 20, 2016 3:12pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Aussie starting its' long term bearish swing I think {image} {image} {image}
been quite the bullish persistent pair lately
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #98,687
  • Aug 20, 2016 5:09pm Aug 20, 2016 5:09pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} been quite the bullish persistent pair lately {image} {image}
Holy ship!

After seeing your chart I've realized that I didn't analyze the daily chart enough, and I have a long position and it seems it could go a little lower, even when RSI in shorter frames are oversold...

Ship!
A good strategy for trading is... the opposite of having a bad strategy.
  • #98,688
  • Edited 6:20pm Aug 20, 2016 5:49pm | Edited 6:20pm
The aussie seems to be struggling to reach higher levels despite COT's are around 40,000 contracts net long and whats even more interesting despite the recent USD weakness. I think any bullish movement from the usd will send the aussie further south quite quickly.

It seems all longs caught in the red once again Im surprised longs were not cut last week. COT reporting traders hold around 70 to 90% of all open positions.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,689
  • Aug 21, 2016 7:21am Aug 21, 2016 7:21am
Weekly chart looks pretty damning, but Friday showed strong support at the 76 level. Not really sure what will happen in the coming week, it's been a wild time lately.
  • #98,690
  • Aug 21, 2016 8:11am Aug 21, 2016 8:11am
Quoting PaulDaemon
The aussie seems to be struggling to reach higher levels despite COT's are around 40,000 contracts net long and whats even more interesting despite the recent USD weakness. I think any bullish movement from the usd will send the aussie further south quite quickly. It seems all longs caught in the red once again Im surprised longs were not cut last week. COT reporting traders hold around 70 to 90% of all open positions.
It is true that Aussie is showing some weakness but only in a few weeks of time we would see the strength coming into this pair easily
FXOpen - International True ECN Broker
  • #98,691
  • Aug 21, 2016 4:39pm Aug 21, 2016 4:39pm
Interesting news over the weekend that one of the senators is looking at changing Australia's monetary policy from inflationary targets to growth targets.

Now what will this mean exactly?

Well it needs to go through parliament for discussion but the timing is right for the new Governor of the RBA to initiate a new legacy.

Lets watch this closely as a sudden change in monetary policy will certainly have implications for a weaker AUD.
  • #98,692
  • Aug 21, 2016 4:45pm Aug 21, 2016 4:45pm
watching 0.7586x and 66 for AU for potential on some longs
  • #98,693
  • Aug 21, 2016 5:31pm Aug 21, 2016 5:31pm
I feel like an idiot because I went long on friday
A good strategy for trading is... the opposite of having a bad strategy.
  • #98,694
  • Aug 21, 2016 5:41pm Aug 21, 2016 5:41pm
Quoting lasty
Interesting news over the weekend that one of the senators is looking at changing Australia's monetary policy from inflationary targets to growth targets. Now what will this mean exactly? Well it needs to go through parliament for discussion but the timing is right for the new Governor of the RBA to initiate a new legacy. Lets watch this closely as a sudden change in monetary policy will certainly have implications for a weaker AUD.
Sounds like to me they know inflation will be falling short for quite some time to come so are taking another approach to make things look good on paper.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,695
  • Aug 21, 2016 5:46pm Aug 21, 2016 5:46pm
Price approaching 200 sma combined with 200ema on 4h a nice close below this area and we could see another 100 pip drop today.
Im not in any shorts atrm but have open shorts on N/U
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20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,696
  • Aug 21, 2016 6:10pm Aug 21, 2016 6:10pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
Price approaching 200 sma combined with 200ema on 4h a nice close below this area and we could see another 100 pip drop today. Im not in any shorts atrm but have open shorts on N/U {image}
Last week the aussie finished with a double rejection on the weekly (tweezer top) combined with being weaker against the usd ( usd being weaker against all majors last week except the aussie) I think we are now looking at further falls this week possibly back to .74 levels.

Just waiting now for a close below 4h sma.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,697
  • Aug 21, 2016 7:15pm Aug 21, 2016 7:15pm
I made a short with this pair. Can someone give me an advice of analyse when I am so new to FX and this pair. I like AUD/USD
  • #98,698
  • Aug 21, 2016 8:17pm Aug 21, 2016 8:17pm
Quoting tracyxoan19
I made a short with this pair. Can someone give me an advice of analyse when I am so new to FX and this pair. I like AUD/USD
What price is your entry at?
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,699
  • Aug 21, 2016 8:18pm Aug 21, 2016 8:18pm
welcome back to the trading week!

well, let's see where we are...

Fundamentals
- "good" employment data last week, which was nonetheless questionable and so should have a net zero effect
- conflicting US data again, coupled with unconvincingly divided Fed speakers...net zero effect
- Essentially, nothing much has changed from the week before. if any change at all, it should be positive for AUD/USD

Technicals
- failed once again at the 7750 level. this time the previous low didn't hold, so now we're down at the 7590s.
- trading substantially below the 200hma for the longest time since July
- approaching the lower rising trend line (7550) of the rise from may 2016
- currently testing 4h 200ma, which has held so far
- noting also on the crosses (EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, key resistance points have just been reached and held), same with the US dollar index

while i generally remain neutral with my intraday trades, i still view the AU pair as in an uptrend. in other words, the top has not yet come. in the larger scheme of things, as of now, the drop from 7750-7590 is still small and cleanly within the bounds of a minor correction influenced by short-term market sentiment (last week saw quite a few swings in US & Aussie data sentiment). the fundamentals have not changed and so as the dust clears, the bias should get clearer especially since we've got a quiet market calendar this week.
good luck and trade safe!
  • #98,700
  • Aug 21, 2016 8:20pm Aug 21, 2016 8:20pm
Quoting tracyxoan19
I made a short with this pair. Can someone give me an advice of analyse when I am so new to FX and this pair. I like AUD/USD
hi! where and why did you enter?
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