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The Really Useless Thread

  • #142,481
  • Aug 18, 2016 9:02am Aug 18, 2016 9:02am
Quoting dhjeaavu69
{quote} Hello sisse, Great job you are doing here. Believe me you are helping more people than you could ever imagine. I have a clarification on Gold. A few posts back you talked about how the commodity would usually rise in times of uncertainty and when CBs are cutting rates (which I think is where we are now) . You also changed outlook on Gold from neutral to buy but since then it seems Gold has just resisted every attempt to move up. Could there be an explanation for this or am I just mixing everything up?
He actually changed his outlook in gold to neutral quite awhile ago. And gold is in cluster fuck fundamentally betweed FED Hikes and Risk
  • #142,482
  • Aug 18, 2016 9:04am Aug 18, 2016 9:04am
Quoting dhjeaavu69
{quote} Hello sisse, Great job you are doing here. Believe me you are helping more people than you could ever imagine. I have a clarification on Gold. A few posts back you talked about how the commodity would usually rise in times of uncertainty and when CBs are cutting rates (which I think is where we are now) . You also changed outlook on Gold from neutral to buy but since then it seems Gold has just resisted every attempt to move up. Could there be an explanation for this or am I just mixing everything up?
Sisse changed his view on gold to neutral:
"--> Only update from NFP.

Changing short term outlook in GOLD from buy to neutral."
  • #142,483
  • Aug 18, 2016 9:18am Aug 18, 2016 9:18am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Sisse changed his view on gold to neutral: "--> Only update from NFP. Changing short term outlook in GOLD from buy to neutral."
This is the one I was referring to:

Active session across the board with a big game changer cooking on the background. Early this year we got some soft signals in Japan, then in the EZ with the ECB but this last one with the BOE massive flop in the bond markets (here a soft reference from the FT for those interested) is sending shockwaves in the market.

--> We are starting to witness since early July the consequences of overextended and extreme loose monetary policy and negative rates. Sadly this will be the worst time for a flop there especially in the UK and Europe.

A major shake in the bond markets will cause destruction to say the least in the effectiveness of the BOE (and ECB and BOJ to lesser extend) to contain the Brexit shock the next couple of quarters and we already have some noise of a further cut to negative rates if things don't work out as planned as early as next meeting.

--> Last time we had something similar on the structural level was back on July and we broke ATH and fly 10% rally in Equities with markets ignoring macro alerts and riding the PIG (rate cuts, QE and all that). This is the second time but this time we are already squeeze most if not all of the juice from free money.

Things getting very very very scary on the macro and structural front for September onwards. BOE flop in the bond market is just the tip of the iceberg of what is cooking behind this last free money ride:

For early but major structural FA alerts reasons:

->
Changing short term outlook in UK and European Equities from buy to neutral

-> Changing mid term outlook in GOLD from neutral to buy
  • #142,484
  • Aug 18, 2016 10:16am Aug 18, 2016 10:16am
Very active day across the board with Equities in manic mode. We are officially entering in bubble mode so buy the dip until it burst. Euro and Yen will struggle to hold this wave as its coming loaded and with force with commodities unlocking the extensions with OIL opening 55.xx after we swept $46.

Shorter term Europe going home will leave the highs naked in the euro for a clean up to the 1.14xx handle as early as today while Yen (UJ)losing 100.3x will leave us with one foot on a cliff.

For those playing the micro zigzag 1.124x -> 1.134x -> 1.116x is clearing time as we are set for failure and for those riding longs from 1.128x is crunching time ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,485
  • Aug 18, 2016 12:24pm Aug 18, 2016 12:24pm
''We are officially entering in bubble mode so buy the dip until it burst. Euro and Yen will struggle to hold this wave as its coming loaded and with force with commodities unlocking the extensions with OIL opening 55.xx after we swept $46. ''


Hi Sisse

I hope my comment means I am following and learning ......otherwise I am going to have go back over the excerises again from many months ago.

OIL over the last couple of weeks you have change from buy short term to neut / sell mid term to neut / then yesterday sell long term to neut

can I ask if 55.xx has been unlocked ........ are we in reasonably priced tickets zone for the exetension to 55.xx or waiting for the extension to buy uber cheap tickets for the fall back to flip zone around 46.xx

many thanks ....hope I have understood ....back to drawing board if not

thanks

Tristan
  • #142,486
  • Aug 18, 2016 2:28pm Aug 18, 2016 2:28pm
Quoting nutts
''We ("''@We") ...OIL over the last couple of weeks you have change from buy short term to neut / sell mid term to neut / then yesterday sell long term to neut
...which means?... we are in Neutral .

We are here:

Quoting sisse
10. Scenarios and Macro Expectations 2016

---> OIL & commodities...."winter has come"

... I expect exhaustion and/or capitulation moves across the commodities board

Whatever the case, Oil and commodities look set to stay on the driver seat pushing for one more extensive leg in Q1/Q2 before forming a very long long long and choppy bottom ...
Quoting sisse
Oil ... TA wise in my books ($26 will do the trick)...
This come from the yearly outlook so you need to put it on context. We have long term levels in play this year with major FA forces. Neutral was widely expected outlook for the end of year as we are set to form a wide choppy bottom meaning we will have a reducing wide volatility range but pretty much constrain to the current range.

If you want to 'visualise' whats is going on with all long/mid and short term in neutral imagining a bouncing ball to standstill...basically volatility will fade away on each leg up and down until we go 'flattish' :

Attached Image


So try to map that and you tell us if where are the reasonable tickets ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,487
  • Aug 18, 2016 2:32pm Aug 18, 2016 2:32pm
I am short ... Closed all longs ... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,488
  • Aug 18, 2016 2:51pm Aug 18, 2016 2:51pm
No surprises in the Euro. All shorts out. I can hear the frustration in some. Retrace or Reversal? ...we'll dig in detail once we clear the iteration. For those trading zigzag live i hope nobody got caught on the failure of the 'zag 'as it was plenty of time to clear.

sisse

Quoting sisse
++++ ITERATION 18 "Retrace or Reversal" Update 1 (16 hour 0 days) ->

++++Currently EURO is trading 1.136x++++

ITERATION 18

"Retrace or Reversal"

Update 1 (1 hour 1 days)


-> LMT BUY 1.124x [check] -> TP1 => 1.134x [check] | TP2 => 1.140x | TP3 => 1.154x | STP =>1.114x | max r:r -=> (+)3:1*

DexterMorgan

yofi

Chibaya


-> LMT STP SELL 1.124x [check] -> TP1 => 1.114x | TP2 => 1.108x | TP3 => 1.094x | STP > 1.134x | max r:r -=> (+)3:1*

primejarvis [cleared TP1 and rev]

Fadhl [cleared TP1 and rev]


Fisher755

Oshomac

Decima

Pharm0r

goosebone

TuTang

fxtrader18

Earleone

IMARICH1

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,489
  • Aug 18, 2016 3:01pm Aug 18, 2016 3:01pm
Quoting sisse
No surprises in the Euro. All shorts out. I can hear the frustration in some. Retrace or Reversal? ...we'll dig in detail once we clear the iteration. For those trading zigzag live i hope nobody got caught on the failure of the 'zag 'as it was plenty of time to clear. sisse {quote} ++++Currently EURO is trading 1.136x++++ ITERATION 18 "Retrace or Reversal" Update 1 (1 hour 1 days) -> LMT BUY 1.124x [check] -> TP1 => 1.134x [check] | TP2 => 1.140x | TP3 => 1.154x | STP =>1.114x | max r:r -=> (+)3:1* DexterMorgan...
Left few % .....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_11 Aug. 18 21.57.jpg Size: 41 KB

I did not book not even one good HTF trade this month yet. Really sad. This patience and waiting game trading HTF is killing my nerves...
PVSRA
  • #142,490
  • Aug 18, 2016 3:57pm Aug 18, 2016 3:57pm
...And very well done DexterMorgan, Ghandi, NorthTrader, Grinsakh for clearing 2nd target you got a spot on entry on the flip. "Don't be a dick for tick" [in a weird case today twice] rules apply. We more than prolly will test 1.138x overnight but we have a 'roll play' today and I would personally clear on the roll for obvious reasons so...

Quoting sisse
...1.114x++++ "THE FLIP" Iteration 17 (Update 1) Elapsed time (4 days 8 hours) -> LMT BUY 1.118x -> TP1 => 1.138x | TP2 => 1.145x | | TP3 => 1.168x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.136x++++

"THE FLIP"

Iteration 17 (Update 1)

Elapsed time (4 days 8 hours)


-> LMT BUY 1.118x -> TP1 => 1.138x [check @1.136x] | TP2 => 1.145x | | TP3 => 1.168x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*

goose bone [cleared all at TP1]

primejarvis[cleared all at TP1/reversed/stopped]


DexterMorgan

Ghandi

NorthTrader

Grinsakh


Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,491
  • Edited 9:16pm Aug 18, 2016 7:31pm | Edited 9:16pm
Quoting sisse
I can hear the frustration in some.
Funny how you can read people discuss in forums and read dozens of books that describe in detail "typical inexperienced trader mistakes" and then spend a year or two making typical inexperienced trader mistakes. Goes to show there's no substitute for experience aka sitting on your ass and watching price do what it does using sensible analysis. If I can make the most of what little I seem to have retained from threads like this one, I just might last long enough to get over that hump. Trying to make notes of my biggest fu's more than my biggest scores cuz I figure if understanding direction and managing risk is the key to consistency those fu's got bigger clues for how to get there.
One thing clear: when I get direction right I make it good. Wrong, I make it bad. If nothing else I have learned here so far it's the prioritization of these concepts (direction first, the rest is so much smaller compared in that after direction, all analysis drops right to rr considerations and not much beyond) that will separate my success from my failure.
  • #142,492
  • Aug 18, 2016 8:07pm Aug 18, 2016 8:07pm
Quoting sisse
...And very well done DexterMorgan, Ghandi, NorthTrader, Grinsakh for clearing 2nd target you got a spot on entry on the flip.
I think we were a bit lucky to be honest. It could have gone either way at 1.1180. But you definitely need some luck in this game, which is why risk management is probably the most important part of trading. If you can get through the unlucky streaks with most of your equity intact then you will live to fight another day.
You reap what you sow.
  • #142,493
  • Aug 18, 2016 9:06pm Aug 18, 2016 9:06pm
I'm frustrated. Simply frustrated. Closed under .1080 in EU last week. Bad news in Eu and Gu economy compared to US. GU close under .294x which should have taken it to .24xx and here we are! US will raise rates soon and EU not for a long time and cutting and it doesn't go below .097x. BS! It's not FA sound!

U.S. good economy compared to GU AND EU. EU not considering raising rates and their currency goes higher against the dollar.

i give up on this. I can't trade and am a peon in this arena. The BASTARDS do what they want and I have to second guess them.

Im ready to close all my positions and in Gu and EU and call it year. It has been more of a Bull market than a Bear for a while in EU.

For sure, Im not a good trader and am so ignorant.
  • #142,494
  • Aug 18, 2016 9:24pm Aug 18, 2016 9:24pm
Quoting IMARICH1
I'm frustrated. Simply frustrated. Closed under .1080 in EU last week. Bad news in Eu and Gu economy compared to US. GU close under .294x which should have taken it to .24xx and here we are! US will raise rates soon and EU not for a long time and cutting and it doesn't go below .097x. BS! It's not FA sound! U.S. good economy compared to GU AND EU. EU not considering raising rates and their currency goes higher against the dollar. i give up on this. I can't trade and am a peon in this arena. The BASTARDS do what they want and I have to second guess...
Sounds like too much leverage and too much screen time....

you are right on all points- so why are you giving up hope? Just because price went out of the range you thought it would? That doesn't mean you're wrong on where price will go in the future, just on when. If you have low enough leverage, then you have all the time in the world
  • #142,495
  • Aug 18, 2016 9:48pm Aug 18, 2016 9:48pm
Quoting IMARICH1
I'm frustrated. Simply frustrated. Closed under .1080 in EU last week. Bad news in Eu and Gu economy compared to US. GU close under .294x which should have taken it to .24xx and here we are! US will raise rates soon and EU not for a long time and cutting and it doesn't go below .097x. BS! It's not FA sound! U.S. good economy compared to GU AND EU. EU not considering raising rates and their currency goes higher against the dollar. i give up on this. I can't trade and am a peon in this arena. The BASTARDS do what they want and I have to second guess...
I feel you, man. I started the year up 25% and now have lost it. A lot of lessons learned and learning. I agree with Pharmor and would add that I am not one to give up.....Ever. I will get this (hopefully without blowing up entire account cause I would hate to have to fund another). Hold your head up...it WILL get better now would be great time to analyze past trades to learn whatever it is you are missing...hope this is helpful...if nothing else you are not alone
  • #142,496
  • Aug 18, 2016 9:50pm Aug 18, 2016 9:50pm
Quoting IMARICH1
The BASTARDS do what they want and I have to second guess them.
I agree. That is the task at hand. I don't expect it to be easy. A simple equation won't get us there. Even if I knew who wins the Superbowl it wouldn't offer an actionable clue for how to bet on a midseason game. Direction is the most important thing to grasp and, at the same time, on its own not enough to achieve consistency. I got a few bullets left and don't plan on giving up. You shouldn't either.
  • #142,497
  • Aug 18, 2016 10:09pm Aug 18, 2016 10:09pm
Thanks for your support. But how do you go from short, mid and long term short outlook. To neutral outlook short term and now midterm outlook neutral?

Based my positions on mid and long term outlook and figured I would hold. But it changed again. EU AND GU is not stronger than US. But, because US doesn't raise rates, they become the underdog. Who is really the weaker dog in this fight? EU AND GU.

yes, my leverage is worse now because I added to my positions at the cheaper seats and now those seats are expensive and have over leveraged me. I agree. I'm transparent here. It has now become an issue. I may have to close out now. I saw closing under .108x in EU and .294c in GU to work towards my favor. Oh well, I'm wrong if I dont hVe sisse spell
it out, I suck as a trader. It's the truth. I own it.
  • #142,498
  • Edited 12:55am Aug 19, 2016 12:18am | Edited 12:55am
Quoting IMARICH1
Thanks for your support. But how do you go from short, mid and long term short outlook. To neutral outlook short term and now midterm outlook neutral?
I know my opinion isn't as worthy as other seniors on this forum.
But for what it's worth (based on my 5 year experience of trading forex):
choose one sub-method (e.g. mid-term 'SELL' outlook), test it, understand it, master it,
then, if you're feeling confident, try a different outlook later on.

You don't have to (and probably shouldn't) try to accommodate and assimilate absolutely everything Sisse teaches.
Sisse is conveying/condensing years of knowledge, so it's not surprising that it can feel overwhelming at times.

There will be more than enough opportunities in just one outlook, even if the setups take longer to appear.
If it takes a year to understand trading only mid-term-SELL-outlooks profitably then so be it, there's certainly no hurry!
Besides, the short/mid term SELL outlook is probably the easiest seeing as you'll have the FA bias on your side.

You obviously have the intelligence to learn complex subjects, and recognise when something isn't working out.
Perhaps now is the time to take a step back and try not to be the 'jack of all trades'.
Why not be the master of one trade method for now?!

Ok, some will assimilate everything perfectly and may even insist that one outlook is just like another, except in direction and timing. That may be true, however (for me), if Dragi is clearly 'dovish' and Yellen is clearly 'hawkish' then it is much easier to short the EUR/USD from a cheap seat retrace for best R:R. If, however, Dragi is 'waiting ' and Yellen is 'waiting' then it just becomes a ranging/reversal/chopping game as to how the market will behave from one rumour(or news release) to the next. That's why I can't trade NEUTRAL and won't trade BUY against the main bias. I'm just not comfortable with the market uncertainty.

Just my opinion.
  • #142,499
  • Aug 19, 2016 3:38am Aug 19, 2016 3:38am
Nice and clean European opening and we are pretty much done for the session with only highlight of Euro entering in the traditional choose your poison time for the 3th time this year for the mid term swing which is perfect time to complete the 20 iterations.

Sisse never leave a conversation open and today I am off the office and I want to start wrapping up this discussion as summer is pretty much over. I will be around to chat and try to wrap up all the points before we close all the iterations so feel free to jump, ask, reply, contribute, argue, share comments or ignore the conversation. Let's try to wrap up this conversation in a high ...

Agree with Pharm0r and goosebone posts. @IMARICH1 that trading self-pity, self-sabotage, hesitating and married with a direction bias and a position is not going to help you here. This is a very tough business either part of full time so those mental traits will only guarantee you failure. Don't get me wrong but either you 'man up' for trading and break your mental patterns or you look for a different venture.

Thats enough for the 'life coaching' session now lets focus on trading and markets. I hope you find some trading north in the following posts.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,500
  • Aug 19, 2016 3:59am Aug 19, 2016 3:59am
Quoting sisse
...And very well done DexterMorgan, Ghandi, NorthTrader, Grinsakh for clearing 2nd target you got a spot on entry on the flip. "Don't be a dick for tick" rules apply. We more than prolly will test 1.138x overnight but we have a 'roll play' today and I would personally clear on the roll for obvious reasons so... {quote} ++++Currently Euro is trading...
Agree on closing position on TP1 and I'm sorry I couldn't join other iterations, I'm travelling in Thailand, got very little time for trading and reading posts, which I'm totaly missing in this timezone. Also got caught on wrong side with oil and UJ which I'm still not getting about direction, EU was much easier, this time I saw opportunity in fail to take LL, so with so close to flip, long position was better idea to me.
GL all trading and thank you sisse
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