The Really Useless Thread | Page 7124 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #142,461
  • Aug 17, 2016 3:39pm Aug 17, 2016 3:39pm
I read the FOMC Minutes and here what I retain:
1- US$ should go up for short and mid-term (i.e., moderate economic outlook; decrease in risk; and inflation remains low);
2- US equities also up
3- Uncertainty in Europe, particularly in UK (brexit, long process for exit) and Italy (bank system)
4- China is struggling and increasing its debt
5- No single word on Japan!
  • #142,462
  • Aug 17, 2016 4:17pm Aug 17, 2016 4:17pm
Scary close in the YEN triggering imminent break down alerts in UJ for the play 100.xx -> 94.xx -> ext and intermediate stops in between.

Something big is cooking in the background. Equities are aligning for the extension with force as soon as we clear Jackson while both Yen an Euro are going to short-circuit and have to pay a very heavy toll on the negative rates flop via the carry trade. This is going to bring a long tale and a lot of tears in their recovery.

FED given the go ahead (not hawkish slips or related in Jackson) is going to be game, set and match for the big bastards fingering all CB overstaying with loose monetary policy.

Here tracking extremely closely 1.128x in the Euro (to unlock the test 1.174x and the ext) with YEN losing floor until Jackson and setting mid term outlook in Euro in very cautious sell outlook until further data.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,463
  • Aug 17, 2016 4:49pm Aug 17, 2016 4:49pm
So sorry, what is the story of Jackson?
  • #142,464
  • Aug 17, 2016 5:59pm Aug 17, 2016 5:59pm
Quoting Arshamv
So sorry, what is the story of Jackson?
Jackson Hole Symposium next week on calendar
  • #142,465
  • Edited 5:58am Aug 18, 2016 1:57am | Edited 5:58am
Quoting sisse
not many ask why 1.124x was the level in play for the Minutes..
I am curious about that choice of entry level.

The only two factors I can see are:

(a)
1.124x represents the bottom of the range of the previous day?
(though that timeframe may be too short to be relevant, or even just coincidence).

(b)
1.124x is a flip zone in the daily timeframe?
However, because my outlook was neutral I would only sell (or buy) from the outside-->in
i.e. from the extremes of the range (depending on expectation bias).

Price was not yet at the range extreme thus there was nothing to trade.
I had no clear bias so I sat it out.

But I am curious about the 1.124x and where/why you were biased in your own map of this exercise.
  • #142,466
  • Aug 18, 2016 4:07am Aug 18, 2016 4:07am
Quoting sisse
Scary close in the YEN triggering imminent break down alerts in UJ for the play 100.xx -> 94.xx -> ext and intermediate stops in between...sisse
May I ask a question: Your call for an "imminent break down alert" is it based on FOMC Minutes?
Clearly I miss-understood the Minutes, I thought completely the opposite! Thanks in advance!
  • #142,467
  • Aug 18, 2016 5:24am Aug 18, 2016 5:24am
Relief good numbers from the UK and all is 'perfect' in the global economy in one of the most bullish summers we have seen in a while. The sunny and clear days of the summer has prevailed this year and hidden the storm for the fall that is around the corner.

--> Equities with barely any risk and constrains short term flooded with CB free money and with the FED expectations for September as only last micro hurdle that will be resolved next week.

--> More interesting in the FX board, YEN and EURO barely holding and are on the brink of a sharp short-circuit that will mark the beginning of the end of CB ultra loose monetary policy as it will be the first time in a long time (history?) that monetary policy will have zero impact in their own currencies (cause carry trade, etc).

Last FED is being digested as bluff and ride the pig on good news is good news. Train is fully loaded at ATH and is pointless spoiling the party as long as FED lags market expectations....

Negative rates for so long are and will cause major catastrophic distortion in global markets in the next few quarters. I am personally scare of Bond markets and what is cooking in currencies. I am about to become a Perma Bear for 2017 onwards....for now nothing to do but join the party, we'll trade the consequences later.

Only an unexpected 'slip' from Jackson will make me reevaluate but for strictly macro structural reasons important updates.

--> Changing mid term outlook in Euro from Short back to Neutral
--> Changing mid term outlook in Yen from Neutral to Soft Sell

sisse

Quoting Fadhl
{quote} May I ask a question: Your call for an "imminent break down alert" is it based on FOMC Minutes?
No. Alerts are triggered by price...check back post since last week about the YEN for reference.
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,468
  • Aug 18, 2016 6:32am Aug 18, 2016 6:32am
Quoting sisse
More interesting in the FX board, YEN and EURO barely holding and are on the brink of a sharp short-circuit that willmark the ....
.
Just some questions on the terms you use:

When you say sharp short circuit, do you mean euro and jpy dropping or something else?

Also you say YEN short in another post... does that mean long UUSDJPY or you mean short for USD JPY..

Thanks
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #142,469
  • Edited 7:24am Aug 18, 2016 7:12am | Edited 7:24am
"Don't be a dick for a tick rules apply" so I would give the check to longs TP1 1.134x. Well done DexterMorgan, primejarvis, Fadhl, yogi, Chibaya for clearing first target.


Quoting sisse
.. ++++Currently EURO is trading 1.128x++++ ITERATION 18 "Retrace or Reversal" Update 1 (1 hour 0 days) -> LMT BUY 1.124x [check] ->
`

++++Currently EURO is trading 1.131x++++

ITERATION 18

"Retrace or Reversal"

Update 1 (16 hour 0 days)


-> LMT BUY 1.124x [check] -> TP1 => 1.134x [check] | TP2 => 1.140x | TP3 => 1.154x | STP =>1.114x | max r:r -=> (+)3:1*

DexterMorgan

primejarvis

Fadhl

yofi

Chibaya


-> LMT STP SELL 1.124x [check] -> TP1 => 1.114x | TP2 => 1.108x | TP3 => 1.094x | STP > 1.134x | max r:r -=> (+)3:1*

Fisher755

Oshomac

Decima

Pharm0r

goosebone

TuTang

fxtrader18

Earleone

IMARICH1


As usual after clearing first target:


===============OPENING Iteration 18a ==============

This time is open to all longs an shorts since Shorts stop hasn't been taken out


FED cleared for the summer with a inline Minutes/nothing new. How would you manage the remaining position?

a. I am not sure. " I will trail 1.130x and clear all reaming positions if hit" (for those shorts clear all with a smaller loss )
b. Nay I stay put for final targets. (for those shorts stops in the same place)
c. I am more bullish than ever "FED is not going to hike anytime soon" I am 'adding' longs 1.130x -> to play T4 for the the extension to 1.174x
d. "This look topish Bull trap to complete the zigzag" I will play the 'reverso' so I will switch remaining positions to shorts targets. (For those shorts do nothing)

If you don't answer its assume you stay put ....

sisse


Quoting stt
{quote} Just some questions on the terms you use: When you say sharp short circuit, do you mean euro and jpy dropping or something else? Also you say YEN short in another post... does that mean long UUSDJPY or you mean short for USD JPY.. Thanks
Right I see. I meant Yen as in USDJPY in that post...I'll make the distinction clearer from now on...

Short-circuit as in Euro and YEN single currency getting stronger rather than softer not the pairs with USD....
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,470
  • Aug 18, 2016 7:19am Aug 18, 2016 7:19am
If my understanding of the Minutes is right, I will go with D.
So: D
  • #142,471
  • Aug 18, 2016 7:23am Aug 18, 2016 7:23am
Quoting sisse
"Don't be a dick for a tick rules apply" so I would give the check to longs TP1 1.134x. Well done DexterMorgan, primejarvis, Fadhl, yogi, Chibaya for clearing first target. {quote}` ++++Currently EURO is trading 1.128x++++ ITERATION 18 "Retrace or Reversal" Update 1 (16 hour 0 days) -> LMT BUY 1.124x...
Double up shorts is not an option?
I would do that if I could..
PVSRA
  • #142,472
  • Aug 18, 2016 7:24am Aug 18, 2016 7:24am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Right I see. I meant Yen as in USDJPY in that post...I'll make the distinction clearer from now on... Short-circuit as in Euro and YEN single currency getting stronger rather than softer not the pairs with USD....
This clarifies it and makes it consistent. Thanks for the quick reply
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #142,473
  • Aug 18, 2016 7:31am Aug 18, 2016 7:31am
More good numbers out of US

shorts stop for iteration missed by 2 pips on my platform

still managing my own shorts personally ~100 pips dd on the worst
  • #142,474
  • Edited 7:47am Aug 18, 2016 7:37am | Edited 7:47am
xxx Ignore my post
  • #142,475
  • Aug 18, 2016 7:40am Aug 18, 2016 7:40am
3 pips for my long t/p1 ..

in Live ... i have closed my longs shorted @ 1.1335x ....

Option D
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,476
  • Aug 18, 2016 7:47am Aug 18, 2016 7:47am
Quoting Pharm0r
More good numbers out of US shorts stop for iteration missed by 2 pips on my platform still managing my own shorts personally ~100 pips dd on the worst
Same thing happend to me, apparently my shorts stop missed by 0.3 pips when i was asleep. Added this morning at 1.131
  • #142,477
  • Aug 18, 2016 8:17am Aug 18, 2016 8:17am
Just as reminder for those new following the iterations:

-> Stops are taken on the upper[longs]/lower[shorts] tick above the X mark (e.g stops shorts 1.095x means stop on a tick 1.0960, etc)
-> Profits are taken on the lower[longs]upper[shorts] tick of the X mark (e.g. target longs 1.347x means clearing on a tick 1.3470, etc).
->"Don't be a dick for a tick rules" applies on PT when its obviously going to fail by a handful of ticks to complete a target and holding a further pullback is not worth the risk. I am calling this rule at my own discretion and I will only do it live on the exact moment is happening not after the fact. This is to avoid skewing good calls because of tiny crumbs and keep it as realistic as possible the iteration results...***

*** This is one of the reasons I don't like making iterations in soft reports as the intraday levels are too close and they most of time hold or fail by the tick which is the opposite of what this iterations suppose to help ...

--- ---
For those live longs that failed by the tick, GL ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,478
  • Aug 18, 2016 8:28am Aug 18, 2016 8:28am
Quoting sisse

===============OPENING Iteration 18a ==============

This time is open to all longs an shorts since Shorts stop hasn't been taken out

d. "This look topish Bull trap to complete the zigzag" I will play the 'reverso' so I will switch remaining positions to shorts targets. (For those shorts do nothing)
Iteration 18a CLOSED

Fadhl and primejarvis switched sides .... all stayed put.

NY will roll the dice.... GL all trading live.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,479
  • Aug 18, 2016 8:34am Aug 18, 2016 8:34am
Quoting sisse
Just as reminder for those new following the iterations: -> Stops are taken on the upper[longs]/lower[shorts] tick above the X mark (e.g stops shorts 1.095x means stop on a tick 1.0960, etc) -> Profits are taken on the lower[longs]upper[shorts] tick of the X mark (e.g. target longs 1.347x means clearing on a tick 1.3470, etc). ->"Don't be a dick for a tick rules" applies on PT when its obviously going to fail by a handful of ticks to complete a target and holding a further pullback is not worth the risk. I am calling this rule at my own discretion...
Sorry for this one :d I'll do that next iteration
anyway its better for me that i can find a safer entry
  • #142,480
  • Aug 18, 2016 8:51am Aug 18, 2016 8:51am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Iteration 18a CLOSED Fadhl and primejarvis switched sides .... all stayed put. NY will roll the dice.... GL all trading live. sisse
Hello sisse,
Great job you are doing here. Believe me you are helping more people than you could ever imagine. I have a clarification on Gold. A few posts back you talked about how the commodity would usually rise in times of uncertainty and when CBs are cutting rates (which I think is where we are now) . You also changed outlook on Gold from neutral to buy but since then it seems Gold has just resisted every attempt to move up. Could there be an explanation for this or am I just mixing everything up?
19 traders viewing now