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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #55,221
  • Aug 16, 2016 5:41am Aug 16, 2016 5:41am
As far as i can read FTI advice was if range detected chose pivot and dance around it until trend establish it self. Sorry for english
  • #55,222
  • Aug 16, 2016 9:12am Aug 16, 2016 9:12am
Quoting s189145
As far as i can read FTI advice was if range detected chose pivot and dance around it until trend establish it self. Sorry for english
Hi - please never apologise for language - best bit about thread is we all have fun with language- especially FTI (naughty naughty FTI everything he says (mostly) is not what we think at first - well maybe just me) and Phil, Jacque etc.

Not sure what he means by choose pivot - need to think about that - think that is what i did so maybe better job than I think - the different types of range are fascinating but best stick with trend unless very strong PA other way - think ok to test it with scout but with trend always best mostly - hard as sometimes my brain seems to know it is a RV and working hard to learn the other way so brain knows we are good with trend too(which is usually best any ways).

I appreciate reply.

The more I learn by trading the more simple yet complex it seems. FTI think maybe genius level. Sometimes I can get too drawn in by it so I become like darn pigs in that darn swamp. Some peeps on this thread talk about that story a lot and I am only just starting to realise its true importance - beware the traps and use them.

Thanks for help. Nice three push long to end uptrend for now - had fun with long.


Cooking pheasant - best go check it.
Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,223
  • Aug 16, 2016 7:15pm Aug 16, 2016 7:15pm
Quoting alexandria
I would like to ask you guys out there - how best to handle a range. I start from the view that it is more likely to go with trend than not BUT price can work out the other way depends if acc or distribution. So I mostly shove in a scout with trend - but if I see potential pattern or trap the other way I send in scout to test it too (if wide enough range) - but never sure whether to just leave range and wait for better PA or breakout PB? Sometimes ranges form a range within a range and so that confuses me - tend to stay out of these. I also never...

Hi Alex
I remember FTI saying its one of the many tactic to do 2 ways in range, if it is wide enough, if its too tight, it be "smashing stones to get juice". I also remember him saying, that it all depends on the range congestion area/type. However, I find in congestion area, it depend on almost solely on how much we define our daylight trading hours, and health of the sighting. And hence, terrain.
Then there be the, yield to overnight trend, if unfortunate happens, protocol would be to reduce and wait, or kill after hitting threshold.

Not sure if I read it here, or somewhere else, not very certain of the data, but it does make some sense when relating it to dow theory(primary-secondary[public parti]-panic). Its says "on average, market range 70% of the time, 30% in motive trend", given the primary(acc/distri) you mention would be the, hardest period to identify and possibly trade.
Which gives birth to congestion patterns and reversal patterns if we were to look at it purely technical.

Maybe you could, if permit, to illustrate what you mean by range within a range for us to enhance the discussion?

Rgds

Also, your fresh pheasant words baked from oven - "remember, pattern evolves!"
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,224
  • Edited 4:25am Aug 17, 2016 4:13am | Edited 4:25am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} .......Maybe you could, if permit, to illustrate what you mean by range within a range for us to enhance the discussion? Rgds Also, your fresh pheasant words baked from oven - "remember, pattern evolves!"
Thanks for reply. I have posted a chart that shows my thinking at the time - TBH this ranging was due to RoK - I am trying to improve my understanding of range action and what to do in one/with one - I go cautiously if at all with lowly scout. But ranging action varies and I am trying to learn difference between with trend range and RV ranging - well as best as I can as no crystal ball. FTI told me there are signs when it is true RV rather than re-accumulation. I would like not to get scared out a trend if I get trapped in a range - maybe that is my scorpion.

Please note I rarely draw any lines on my chart and then I remove them at once - I did not draw any lines on my chart in action - just added here to show what I saw at the time - I do have averages on there but use them for different things - I like em there (well I am human). With such a range I am not sure if I just put my one guy in and test again with another when traps come. This PA was actually caused by RoK playing elsewhere but I was watching this too. I did put a scout out - think I had 2 out.

Alex
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDSBM5ranging.png Size: 22 KB
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,225
  • Aug 17, 2016 4:22am Aug 17, 2016 4:22am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Thanks for reply. I have posted a chart that shows my thinking at the time - TBH this ranging was due to RoK - I am trying to improve my understanding of range action and what to do in one/with one - I go cautiously if at all with lowly scout. But ranging action varies and I am trying to learn difference between with trend range and RV ranging - well as best as I can as no crystal ball. FTI told me there are signs when it is true RV rather than re-accumulation. I would like not to get scared out a trend if I get trapped in a range - maybe...
hi alex, just curious what do you mean by rv?
  • #55,226
  • Aug 17, 2016 5:08am Aug 17, 2016 5:08am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi alex, just curious what do you mean by rv?
Sorry reversal - so a bull/bear candle with not much selling/buying going on during it and price then takes out a prior candle low/high.

I really must emphasise I do not draw lines (only ever temporarily)/rely on candles/ no crystal ball - never rigid - mostly I realised that traps are set everywhere and FTI tells us market gives us clues so trying to watch for them. Also the candles in hindsight do not show the strength of push/pull and ones that changed quickly at end (FTI once talked to me about men in skirts(well I am Scottish)). I am sure you know this all this sort of stuff anyway just wanted to point that out. Lots of peeps kept talking about those darn pigs (and FTIs men in kilts) and so I realised that I had not truly realised the frequency of traps - I got caught in a few - still do - and so it started to dawn on me more and more to watch for traps both in/out.

Would not want anyone to think I use analysis in any rigid way but wanted to show what I really thought during live market - stimes I can talk myself in/out of everything.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,227
  • Edited 5:36am Aug 17, 2016 5:20am | Edited 5:36am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Sorry reversal - so a bull/bear candle with not much selling/buying going on during it and price then takes out a prior candle low/high. I really must emphasise I do not draw lines (only ever temporarily)/rely on candles/ no crystal ball - never rigid - mostly I realised that traps are set everywhere and FTI tells us market gives us clues so trying to watch for them. Also the candles in hindsight do not show the strength of push/pull and ones that changed quickly at end (FTI once talked to me about men in skirts(well I am Scottish)). I am...
got it, no worries, im pretty agnostic about having things on charts. well, no crystal ball thats why cant avoid them right? as long as it managed right i think its alright.

just my opinion, ill just try to skew down to scout if in a range, i have seen trades which look so nice, only for it to be stop hunt.

i think in all practicality, in a range, keep a tight skew, so if sudden counter impulse develop, you can flip quick with little book loss and recover without exposing book too much, say a 1 scout, lvl1 rescue, if you flip, your skew would not be too big which may make it a little tougher to manage
  • #55,228
  • Aug 17, 2016 5:39am Aug 17, 2016 5:39am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} got it, no worries, im pretty agnostic about having things on charts. well, no crystal ball thats why cant avoid them right? as long as it managed right i think its alright. just my opinion, ill just try to skew down to scout if in a range, i have seen trades which look so nice, only for it to be stop hunt. i think in all practicality, in a range, keep a tight skew, so if sudden counter impulse develop, you can flip quick with little book loss and recover without exposing book too much, say a 1 scout, lvl1 rescue, if you flip, your skew...
FTI is correct - lines blind me - so never leave em on.

Sure - thanks - good advice. I think keeping it small is way to go - maybe 1 - 2 at most on good traps and be ready to manage problem if happens - but PA can be ugly as bulls/bears slug it out.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,229
  • Aug 17, 2016 5:46am Aug 17, 2016 5:46am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Sure good advice. Alex
ah that chart, i was trapped short on that, was expecting down ward movement, but seems like its coordinated movement by usd, decided against rescuing since all 7 majors are all in sync in tokyo.
  • #55,230
  • Aug 17, 2016 5:49am Aug 17, 2016 5:49am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} FTI is correct - lines blind me - so never leave em on. Sure - thanks - good advice. I think keeping it small is way to go - maybe 1 - 2 at most on good traps and be ready to manage problem if happens - but PA can be ugly as bulls/bears slug it out. Alex
well, not to say you cant do anything, you can scalp the range with 1 1, and collect nice foreign caps for the inevitable breakout, would probably help your cushion if caught out of position
  • #55,231
  • Aug 17, 2016 6:06am Aug 17, 2016 6:06am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Thanks for reply. I have posted a chart that shows my thinking at the time - TBH this ranging was due to RoK - I am trying to improve my understanding of range action and what to do in one/with one - I go cautiously if at all with lowly scout. But ranging action varies and I am trying to learn difference between with trend range and RV ranging - well as best as I can as no crystal ball. FTI told me there are signs when it is true RV rather than re-accumulation. I would like not to get scared out a trend if I get trapped in a range - maybe...

Hi Alex

The lows are all intact on your chart so it was always still an up trend (in my view), the part you marked out was just a ‘rest’ period in the move, I tend to try not over-read the lower frames, my direction/read is mainly taken from the higher frames, the lowers are used for scaling entries/exit using the bull/bear momentum/breakaway bars. In the lower frames I mainly look for the last high/low to be taken out before I stop scaling in/out and try to note how many waves there has been and their power to asses if an entry would be wise at the current level, when the last high/low is taken out I suspect either a turn or range, if it is a turn it will often not hang (rest) at the top and create a sharp move (a bull/bear ‘V’) I find, whereas if price ‘rests’ then takes out the last low/high it will often mean a possible range is developing before the next move from what I have managed to get from watching the markets so far.

I have found that we have to 100% accept that not all market movements are readable all the time and use the recover/kill strategy when this happens, I find and I guess this happens to all of us, sometimes I am spot on and make a killing for a few weeks even months then I hit a harder period when I am just treading water invoking the recovery/kill strategy for a while, all that matters is the consequence we cause to our account (the state…AOW), not whether our entries are right or wrong, good trades can go bad and bad trades can be made good with the right strategies, patients and money management but of course not all should be saved.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #55,232
  • Edited 6:39am Aug 17, 2016 6:16am | Edited 6:39am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} FTI is correct - lines blind me - so never leave em on. Sure - thanks - good advice. I think keeping it small is way to go - maybe 1 - 2 at most on good traps and be ready to manage problem if happens - but PA can be ugly as bulls/bears slug it out. Alex
well, sometimes it helps to understand the wrong read in real time, think the pig story, are you the trapper or the pig? my mind when i analyse have 2 threads, the pig, and the trapper thinking to trap myself.
  • #55,233
  • Aug 17, 2016 6:29am Aug 17, 2016 6:29am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alex The lows are all intact on your chart so it was always still an up trend (in my view), the part you marked out was just a rest period in the move, I tend to try not over-read the lower frames, my direction/read is mainly taken from the higher frames, the lowers are used for scaling entries/exit using the bull/bear momentum/breakaway bars. In the lower frames I mainly look for the last high/low to be taken out before I stop scaling in/out and try to note how many waves there has been and their power to asses if an entry would be wise...
Thanks for reply.

I agree with your analysis - it was a rest in bull market. I prefer to be with my higher frames too.

I like your description of the difference between a climactic reversal and a more restful range top. This is sort of thing I am trying to notice for better read - but no predictions. I am not trying to give anyone impression of crystal ball trading just thought I need to look for the good signs when they are there and if they do not work out manage it. Guess I am trying to improve on my following where I can. It is hard to explain what I am looking at without making it sound predictive.

Thanks again.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,234
  • Aug 17, 2016 6:43am Aug 17, 2016 6:43am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Thanks for reply. I agree with your analysis - it was a rest in bull market. I prefer to be with my higher frames too. I like your description of the difference between a climactic reversal and a more restful range top. This is sort of thing I am trying to notice for better read - but no predictions. I am not trying to give anyone impression of crystal ball trading just thought I need to look for the good signs when they are there and if they do not work out manage it. Guess I am trying to improve on my following where I can. It is hard...

Hi Alex

trying to 'read' is trying to be predictive how ever we try to do it, what we must understand is it always is a 'maybe' situation based on the clues we can read for a possibility, not marrying your read/idea is what should not be done (in my view), any move can start then go the other way at any time, to trade we need to pick a direction and the higher frames can offer 'some' protection while trading/scaling the lower moves unless we trade into an oncoming train.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #55,235
  • Aug 17, 2016 6:50am Aug 17, 2016 6:50am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alex trying to 'read' is trying to be predictive how ever we try to do it, what we must understand is it always is a 'maybe' situation based on the clues we can read for a possibility, not marrying your read/idea is what should not be done (in my view), any move can start then go the other way at any time, to trade we need to pick a direction and the higher frames can offer 'some' protection while trading/scaling the lower moves unless we trade into an oncoming train. regards Phil.
Sorry just my clumsy language - I consider everything as potential only - but thanks for pointing it out - you are right - I find it hard to tell peeps what I do without making it sound like what it is not ie rigid/predictive. But I will think about what you said as maybe I am doing it without realising.

I actually view my trading as following the clues and managing whatever the outcome. I used to often try to lead and that way we find many traps.

When you say you go with momentum bars - do you mean you wait until bar close or do you mean the live strong push?

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,236
  • Aug 17, 2016 7:00am Aug 17, 2016 7:00am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} got it, no worries, im pretty agnostic about having things on charts. well, no crystal ball thats why cant avoid them right? as long as it managed right i think its alright. just my opinion, ill just try to skew down to scout if in a range, i have seen trades which look so nice, only for it to be stop hunt. i think in all practicality, in a range, keep a tight skew, so if sudden counter impulse develop, you can flip quick with little book loss and recover without exposing book too much, say a 1 scout, lvl1 rescue, if you flip, your skew...
Sorry need to make very clear also - reversal does not mean we should trade it - all about terrain. I call it that (I know what I mean by it) - really it means start of new wave I guess - wave can be with trend or not. I guess it is like momentum candle.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,237
  • Aug 17, 2016 7:13am Aug 17, 2016 7:13am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Sorry need to make very clear also - reversal does not mean we should trade it - all about terrain. I call it that (I know what I mean by it) - really it means start of new wave I guess - wave can be with trend or not. I guess it is like momentum candle. Alex
well, depends on your mo and goal i guess, say for example, if you are long a call, going for a short term short to scalp some pips and pay for abit of the call might be alright too.
  • #55,238
  • Aug 17, 2016 7:27am Aug 17, 2016 7:27am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Sorry just my clumsy language - I consider everything as potential only - but thanks for pointing it out - you are right - I find it hard to tell peeps what I do without making it sound like what it is not ie rigid/predictive. But I will think about what you said as maybe I am doing it without realising. I actually view my trading as following the clues and managing whatever the outcome. I used to often try to lead and that way we find many traps. When you say you go with momentum bars - do you mean you wait until bar close or do you mean...

Hi Alex

i know you are not trying to be 'predictive' and you are spot on with the clues and managing i think.

your question is hard to answer, the first minute (or two) of a new bar appears to be important, if it takes out the previous bar (of a 'normal' size for the day) then i suspect a bigger buyer/seller is entering 'maybe', if the finished bar takes out the previous 3+ bars i suspect the same, if i see a bar that makes a new high and low i suspect the move maybe over soon, an inside bar is often a sign of no interest to continue the move, if there are 3+ bars in a new direction and they are generally increasing in length i suspect a bigger buyer/seller is entering, if i see a clear bar that has broke away from a previous move i suspect the same, basically i look at each bar or set of bars to try to asses the momentum for getting in or out of the legs in my desired direction, all are presented different but are sort of the same thing, they are also 'read' differently on the higher frames, sorry but can not really explain it to well, but i have previously tried to show some of it in my charts.

i think from work i am recently doing that the spiral can also tell us something of the possible next move (1 1 2 3 ect), but i am still trying to figure it out so will not discuss it too much as i may be wrong with some/all of that but i mention it because others may wish to also investigate this for their own conclusions??

regards

Phil
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #55,239
  • Aug 17, 2016 7:57am Aug 17, 2016 7:57am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alex i know you are not trying to be 'predictive' and you are spot on with the clues and managing i think. your question is hard to answer, the first minute (or two) of a new bar appears to be important, if it takes out the previous bar (of a 'normal' size for the day) then i suspect a bigger buyer/seller is entering 'maybe', if the finished bar takes out the previous 3+ bars i suspect the same, if i see a bar that makes a new high and low i suspect the move maybe over soon, an inside bar is often a sign of no interest to continue the...
Cheers - I understand your bar/candle discussion.

I also see it as sign of stronger buyers/sellers if candle closes thru 2 or more candle closes. Really I need to feel the strength of those buyers/sellers.

A bar that makes a new high and low I see often as a trap to trap some peeps in and other peeps out.

An inside bar or few of them can be a sign of no interest at end of a move or just a pause near start of move.

I also notice they can take a candle low/high out by small amount to set a trap - I think.

Terrain is VIP tho.

I am not great on the spiral thingy yet - need more experience.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,240
  • Aug 17, 2016 8:24am Aug 17, 2016 8:24am
Hi Alex

I agree with the discussion above
IMO the pair was wide ranging with gentle daily and hourly buy momentum, made daily HH HL in early Aug.

I was caught on the wrong side of this myself too, due to my poor reading and disorientation, perhaps dancing with male?! Ugh.
The reason I went short was the day before, sellers came in hard at 1.12 level with a V reversal with an inside bar daily showing hesitance buyers and eager sellers, and shortly after the next day, I went short.
When I look closer(and scaled out when scout was in trouble) and saw the stepping rounded bottoms bouncing with HL, I had to quickly get out as I was wrong.

Not very sure if any of that helps, just thought I share my battle plan for that battle since I was in the battle too.

Rgds


BTW, you mention "terrain is VIP"
May I ask what does VIP refers to?
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
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