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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #55,201
  • Aug 8, 2016 7:35pm Aug 8, 2016 7:35pm
I see it as Einstellung effect = scorpion
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #55,202
  • Edited 7:35am Aug 9, 2016 5:39am | Edited 7:35am
hi,

i just listened to dr. murray bank how to live with yourself. thats really amazing lesson y. i guess im not an adjusted person lol, i only can answer 2 yes from 10 question. i will use that 10 question for my assessment. i cant find The wonderful world of sex , sin and sanity. is there anyone who have it?

fti thanks again to you for sharing AOW & babysit account. i found that im so rigid when trading. when i learnt forex, i missed a lot of technical analysis part (include pattern & martingale/rescue), i went to fundamental coz it give reason n prediction (at least for me). i come to market with prediction n when it goes wrong, i usually said to myself, its alright it gonna lol. sometimes i found myself to fast or to slow to take profit coz i rarely babysit them

im at #1600s still long way to go
  • #55,203
  • Aug 9, 2016 10:05am Aug 9, 2016 10:05am
Quoting fti
{quote} understood. regards
  • #55,204
  • Aug 10, 2016 2:37am Aug 10, 2016 2:37am
Completely agree with OP.

Wish I would have grasped this when I was first starting out.

I expected a method to work all the time and would lose my mind when it didn't. So much so that I almost quit trading because I couldn't find and indicator that was significant enough to give me the results I was looking for 100% of the time.

Now I know that trading is a probability game. You can have signals that suggest a certain movement, but that doesn't always mean that it will work out the way you plan it.

I liken it to quantum physics in which we do not know the path of the particles (price action) so we must think of the outcome as potentials and not definite.
  • #55,205
  • Aug 10, 2016 4:51am Aug 10, 2016 4:51am
Hey Forexfactory, glad to be here.

My name is Todd. I'm a big time number cruncher type who trades Forex to supplement my income. When I'm not trading, I like to play chess and squash. I teach high school Math.
  • #55,206
  • Edited 9:57am Aug 10, 2016 9:00am | Edited 9:57am
Hi, sorry for the late reply, got into abit of a health issue so I could not reply for quite awhile.

Btw, fti, thanks for your help, I forgot for some reason, I think I actually did trade this method correctly initially, but for some reason, I think I went too deep into rescues and caused some rigidity, so when I traded up 100% in a month, I did not rescue by averaging much, only once or twice, I just cut losses and wait watched the markets more, and in hind sight I cut at the right time and did not over expose book. Then hit them harder when the trend emerged. So I guess I did trade this style correctly. But somehow, I don't know when this idea of holding onto trades too long came into my mind to do rescue and hold losses for too long. So I guess actually in the first place I had been doing things right, cutting losses short and letting profits ride. So recently I reread the thread again, turns out I did it right, right at from the start, then deviated, so I have since returned to the basics.

The 1 3 12 16 16 16 is not for this mo here, and I don't use it for this mo. It's for another mo which is different from this. I do take losses on this mo, but so far, the r&r has been good, the r&r is always more than 1 and also a fixed loss threshold is first calculated before deciding contract size for 1 uni, in accordance to leg atr, or whichever atr I find suitable.
  • #55,207
  • Edited 3:01pm Aug 10, 2016 1:04pm | Edited 3:01pm
Quoting CookieMonsta
Hi, sorry for the late reply, got into abit of a health issue so I could not reply for quite awhile. Btw, fti, thanks for your help, I forgot for some reason, I think I actually did trade this method correctly initially, but for some reason, I think I went too deep into rescues and caused some rigidity, so when I traded up 100% in a month, I did not rescue by averaging much, only once or twice, I just cut losses and wait watched the markets more, and in hind sight I cut at the right time and did not over expose book. Then hit them harder when the...
yeah.
when we milking the cow. one can get carried away.then if one thinks feeding the cow more may get mor milk.
one forgets feeding cow more sometimes only gets more shit, if te cowq already performing at optimum.
what you described is correct.No one need be in a trade all the time. The strategy can be reenacted another time when one recognises the return wave/sentiments.There is no rule that one has to be in thru pain and sorrows. Its like one has time machine, you can vanish from markets anytime you happy to do so, and come back on the same strategy. live figth another day.

i am having some issues also. Blood sugar is killing me. I thought this time is it. The kidneys are going. But seems is just warning.
Not unlike you i overdid the durians.I was telling heart to behave, then stomach complained. Then when kidneys shut down, I thought , die la.
now fasting and liquid diet.
This also why i not talking much. Anyway if the peeps are studyingstuff, its in the beginning 200+ pages.
regards

https://www.verywell.com/causes-and-...hareurlbuttons
  • #55,208
  • Aug 10, 2016 3:02pm Aug 10, 2016 3:02pm
hahahaha ancestors were not monkeys.
Maybe some of our scientist are. hahahahahaha
send em back into the jungle for reeducation?

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regards
  • #55,209
  • Edited Aug 11, 2016 2:48am Aug 10, 2016 5:05pm | Edited Aug 11, 2016 2:48am
Quoting fti
{quote} yeah. when we milking the cow. one can get carried away.then if one thinks feeding the cow more may get mor milk. one forgets feeding cow more sometimes only gets more shit, if te cowq already performing at optimum. what you described is correct.No one need be in a trade all the time. The strategy can be reenacted another time when one recognises the return wave/sentiments.There is no rule that one has to be in thru pain and sorrows. Its like one has time machine, you can vanish from markets anytime you happy to do so, and come back on...

Yea, the skew I used was also quite basic, just the 1 1 2 4 for symmetry and is slightly more toned down from fibo skew.
Yep, most important is conserve book capital.

I don't know why I thought my original interpretation of the thread was wrong when it was right.

Aiya you so naughty, give your body time to heal on its own and stay clear of the bad stuff, you would be amazed at what your body can do to recover. anyway i hope you do reconsider about the cigs. just my opinion.

wait the fibo and my skew is different, my mistake, got it the other way round.
  • #55,210
  • Aug 10, 2016 6:41pm Aug 10, 2016 6:41pm
Quoting trickshady
Yes outdated, but not all of it. The principles (psychology) stays the same even today. The actual war tactics are way out of this world. There is a whole chapter dedicated on attacks by fire. Sorry Sun Tsu, flamethrowers are terrible weapons. And there isn't bad weather for attacks with fire. Thunderstorm? No problem, bring on the napalm. He also says you should not attack if the enemy has more soldiers than you. Sun Tsu, bring the best 100 of your men, I'll even let you use our modern assault rifles. I'll be just alone so it's 1 vs 100. Let's...
the easiest way, i can do with 1 man, bait you into confined space, once your mobility is lowered, sneak up from behind. and toss a grenade into the tank and kill the operator inside. if you think going head on is genius you must be insane, defeat enemy by strategem and deceit, that is strategic finesse and that is the reason why every armour company is always accompanied by at least 1 infantry squad, to mitigate this problem of mobility and rigidity, someone more flexible can do more damage.
  • #55,211
  • Aug 12, 2016 12:44am Aug 12, 2016 12:44am
Quoting fti
{quote} ........ if one thinks feeding the cow more may get mor milk. one forgets feeding cow more sometimes only gets more shit...................................

...........................if one thinks feeding the cow more may get mor milk. one forgets feeding cow more sometimes only gets more shit...

Nice one FTI - sharp as ever - I have so done that... a few times..... it takes cunning and planning to defeat the enemy... need to learn his tricks and use them against him.

I used to take it that I had to fight to death come what may - snowballs get too big and/or too scary - learning when to withdraw only to come back stronger is VIP tactic.

Sometimes we all need to be a little bad - just human.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,212
  • Edited 9:07pm Aug 12, 2016 7:58am | Edited 9:07pm
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THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #55,213
  • Edited 9:45pm Aug 12, 2016 9:28pm | Edited 9:45pm
Quoting alexandria
{quote} ...........................if one thinks feeding the cow more may get mor milk. one forgets feeding cow more sometimes only gets more shit... Nice one FTI - sharp as ever - I have so done that... a few times..... it takes cunning and planning to defeat the enemy... need to learn his tricks and use them against him. I used to take it that I had to fight to death come what may - snowballs get too big and/or too scary - learning when to withdraw only to come back stronger is VIP tactic. Sometimes we all need to be a little bad -...
noted. only human.

On a lighter note, someone told me, maybe some aliens are out to get me. seems i getting weaker and weaker.
i told , nevermind, i will try request ultimate superior power for protection.
Inserted Video


i prayed the Lord's prayer daily and fasting 1 meal daily only.
and i am recovering already. mostly the pains all over and cold sweats are gone. seriously miracles.
Thank You to God for mercy. Amen


regards
  • #55,214
  • Aug 12, 2016 10:47pm Aug 12, 2016 10:47pm
Quoting fti
{quote} noted. only human. On a lighter note, someone told me, maybe some aliens are out to get me. seems i getting weaker and weaker. i told , nevermind, i will try request ultimate superior power for protection. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFLMMnSeyG8 i prayed the Lord's prayer daily and fasting 1 meal daily only. and i am recovering already. mostly the pains all over and cold sweats are gone. seriously miracles. Thank You to God for mercy. Amen regards
Glad you are doing better now.
  • #55,215
  • Aug 13, 2016 4:47am Aug 13, 2016 4:47am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Glad you are doing better now.


More adventures maybe.
May even have durian trees?

http://www.seeker.com/new-nearby-ear...970197349.html

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regards
  • #55,216
  • Aug 13, 2016 8:40am Aug 13, 2016 8:40am
Inserted Video
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #55,217
  • Edited 10:22am Aug 13, 2016 10:10am | Edited 10:22am
Quoting lovelymonday
hi, i just listened to dr. murray bank how to live with yourself. thats really amazing lesson y. i guess im not an adjusted person lol, i only can answer 2 yes from 10 question. i will use that 10 question for my assessment. i cant find The wonderful world of sex , sin and sanity. is there anyone who have it? fti thanks again to you for sharing AOW & babysit account. i found that im so rigid when trading. when i learnt forex, i missed a lot of technical analysis part (include pattern & martingale/rescue), i went to fundamental coz it give reason...
no worrys, The wonderful world of sex sin and sanity is same message, just different presentation. the title is more attractive.

After read, just casually think about what you read.
You really learn, when you experience it in markets, thats when you get ideas how it piece together.
Cannot be rushed.

By the way , rescues is not in martingale, mostly is in golden sections/fibo. There is many ways use it to ones advantage when get more experience using it. It will also show you how the series can get very large but stable if one is careful in the impliment, but can get very dangerous if one not calculate the cause and effect it can generate in running markets. Use carefully and do the calculations.

you easilly see it if you have lotus123 generate the tables.
then calculate the safe envelope where you can use on you capitalisation.
that will be your risk parameters.

you will find that most normally traders are in fact very over exposed for proper managing.



regards
  • #55,218
  • Aug 13, 2016 6:55pm Aug 13, 2016 6:55pm
Quoting fti
{quote} More adventures maybe. May even have durian trees? http://www.seeker.com/new-nearby-ear...970197349.html https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngElkyQ6Rhs regards
Btw, heard you caught a rat recently, was it wearing a chef hat like this rat?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratatouille_(film)

  • #55,219
  • Aug 16, 2016 12:27am Aug 16, 2016 12:27am
Quoting fti
{quote} noted. only human. On a lighter note, someone told me, maybe some aliens are out to get me. seems i getting weaker and weaker. i told , nevermind, i will try request ultimate superior power for protection. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFLMMnSeyG8 i prayed the Lord's prayer daily and fasting 1 meal daily only. and i am recovering already. mostly the pains all over and cold sweats are gone. seriously miracles. Thank You to God for mercy. Amen regards

- every bit helps

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,220
  • Aug 16, 2016 12:35am Aug 16, 2016 12:35am
I would like to ask you guys out there - how best to handle a range.

I start from the view that it is more likely to go with trend than not BUT price can work out the other way depends if acc or distribution.

So I mostly shove in a scout with trend - but if I see potential pattern or trap the other way I send in scout to test it too (if wide enough range) - but never sure whether to just leave range and wait for better PA or breakout PB? Sometimes ranges form a range within a range and so that confuses me - tend to stay out of these. I also never know should I leave that scout in until with trend breakout occurs or take him out at sign of potential trouble - what if enemy is behind him a little?

Anyone have tips on ranges? I have found using RoK for timing can be super helpful if ducks align (not sitting ducks). Taking a breakout pullback is good too or I guess a breakout pullback that fails ie was a trap.

Better get back to baby - neglecting a bit.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
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