The Really Useless Thread

Flop in Japan (...and after all the crazy BOJ ...no comments) and bond markets out of control. Things keep looking darker and darker for the fall and most markets are getting seriously dislocated from fundamentals which like usual is a screaming warning signals in global markets...

Active early week with plenty of reports until the Minutes. Nothing new in Sterling begging for buyers and the softer wind will blow GU a few handles.

Euro entering in key mid term decision time after last week. Officially this can be the last 1 or 2 week(s) for bulls this year. On the TA side, failure to take the 1.12xx handle this month will lock all the way down 1.14xx and confirm the high of this Quarter and Year. To the other side is crunching times for bulls, last chance for those still playing the test 1.18xx ( i know a few here).

On the short term, nothing new in Equities and Commodities, while in FX we are cooking another 'monster' move. Sterling lows naked, Euro chopping around like usual this summer, expecting current soft highs get shaking out till the Minutes .

sisse

Wondering if eu just pointed out the flip I was searching for last week. (inline with hoom's comments)

Perhaps sisse could do an iteration based on the flip zone. I know several of us posted what we thought it might be and some of us were close to each other's level for the flip. It would be nice to learn this TA to get us in a position of taking a less risky trade and better risk management.

Agreed. But feeling like this most recent one fits that bill pretty good. At least from my perspective.

My Flip on Monthly was .128x and on Weekly .118x

I am not sure if you look for a FLIP zone or level and on one time frame or a couple.

I think the .118x may be more reasonable since sisse has said if we don't close above .12xx handle for this month it locks .14xx. For the Bulls.

I think time frame specific makes sense to me in that where bulls and bears put near equal pressure on price would be a different place when looking at the monthly chart or bigger compared to the daily or smaller. Those levels would not be mutually exclusive as flip because you are really talking about different buying and selling pressure in each case. That doesn't make sense when I read it back but at least I know what I mean.

Some are mixing up mid (even long term) swings with the current short term iteration.

We have been in Neutral since early August until this week mover and shakers. For those still looking for answer try going to basics that may help for perspective:

1. We are in Neutral (if you are sell or buy do the same) short term use Daily to make it easier to see he forest instead of the trees for this particular case.
2. Plot the 2 current extremes areas of the CURRENT RANGE in play (the top and bottom) don't go jumping somewhere else out of scope.
3. In the last chart update you had the last flip line for reference on how you could spot it. When we changed to neutral we made a fresh one. Try to spot that one in the chart.

That simple, clean and clear chart should give you 90% of what you need to know. If you want to go the extra mile. Do the same simple map in the mid term swings. Use the macro direction to guide you through to the short term swing. If price is also in a mid term swing area you can play a larger swing, otherwise just follow and trade the ebb and flow accordingly.

We'll get in details about the flip when the iteration pans out later this week.

sisse

Pond is getting smaller and smaller for us forex junkies. Having to move my accounts from IB over to TDAmeritrade

Too bad I don't have 10mil

Cant really think of many that would be trading 10 mil + on forex to begin with to be honest

I suspect with time TDA will either become more competitive or stop offering forex all together...

Greetings all! First of all please excuse my English, its not my native language so don't expect much.

I just want to say one BIG thank you to sisse. Thank you sir! I'm following you since I started using metatrader (about 5 years ago) and I must say I learned more only from this thread than I have learn from all the other posts in this site! It's a great thread and you are making it great. But the last couple of mouths with these iterations was something like an eye opener for me. Simply the way for trading!

Just follow this guy read twice everything he wrote and then think about it when you go to sleep. He writes everything you need to know about those markets.

Again a big bow and a BIG thank you sir!

Now I even dare to write here because after nearly 5 years of trading I'm about to blow my account with half of my savings + those 5 years of my life. Betting on strong dollar ($) proof to be my biggest mistake yet! Most probably the last. So I'm thinking hey at least say something maybe you are wrong. Maybe I'm missing something. So this is what I think in general:

In forex there are big fishes small fishes and Im an alga. So from an alga point of view:

The word parity (E/$) was the most used word in this site (not only) some year and a half back. Parity 'till September... 'till October... 'till the end of the year... It didn't happen. Almost everybody bet on strong dollar and what happened? This year is the same thing. Just look at the last iteration "the flip" (quick Q:why you think he named it "the flip"?) and see most of the participants betting on strong dollar again. I think this is a very good representation of the expectations of the small players on the market (like me) right now. We are betting on a hike soon... well guess what? If that is not enough for you just see the forecast of sisse for USDx mid term (till sept. If I remember correctly) 94.4! Now compare it with E/$ chart! We are smack down in the middle of the range in both. And we are expecting a large move - Its almost too easy. If that doesn't convince you see the reaction from the last FED (when status quo was confirmed) and remember this was before last US GDP. Sure the last NFP was great but even last Friday we saw some pretty bad numbers from US. Lets say mixed to bad numbers coming from US. What I mean is - this is not the environment when you raise interest rates. So I think nothing will change this Wednesday and the dollar will continue his decline until 94.4. Well there might be some change in tone from FED about the hikes but I dont think there will be even I hint of rise soon. Which means my account is going bye bye if the GBP did not take me out via yen and gold before or after that. Did you really think that the market will simply slide in your direction without clearing your stops first? From the last FED we only clear the "soft hands" I dont think that this will be enough of a stop hunting. Some big player must be sting before we see a serious down move(eur/usd). In simple words - if it can go down it will go up (the pair triend several times the down side) So thats how I think and I'm praying that I'm wrong.

If you are still reading - Thank you for reading this. Sometimes it helps to share. But If I'm missing something If somebody thinks that my thinking is wrong please PLEASE tell me! Give me some hope.

sincerely yours: The depressed/desperate alga

More like this for short term?

more like this for mid term?

long term?

Thanks for this, now I have a better understanding of what to look for in the short, mid, long TF's as we go through these iterations.

As expected, Euro on the highs right on time for the movers and shakers of this week. Eyes on numbers this morning as we can have a clean sweep in both Sterling and Euro. Bottom is naked in GU while Euro cleaning 1.124x will wipe out all soft hands but more importantly holding will leave us in chop zone till the Minutes with a clear map for the mid term swing.

sisse

^^^ 10,000th post Sisse

Congrates Sisse .... its a milestone ....

I think we are in a ugly squeeze .
Bastards managed to take out a lot of SL here ( the long green bar). They reached next Resistance level at the fib 123.8 level. For the last integrations our ( bears ) SL barely hold for now.

I personally add here ( shorts ) Will see if it is good or bad decision later.

I have pending sell order at upper whole, let's see if we get there. Maybe at or around FOMC minutes. Anyway it is maybe healthier to wait out what happens after FOMC tomorrow (if last pump up it is sweeter to sell then, if breakdown, we have more than enough time afterwards).
If not, I Will sell on breakdown. ATM is too much bullish momentum still.

Does anyone think the GBPUSD move to 1.2866 has already priced in the next potential BoE rate cut,
barring any talk of additional stimulus?

Yes . I have more bullets and need to use them carefully.