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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #9,741
  • Aug 13, 2016 2:32am Aug 13, 2016 2:32am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi, let me try and explain in an easy way. Cable on Fri had a short trigger and it then retraced, in the circled area on chart I am saying you could of shorted again knowing it had a good chance of dropping which it did, The actual trade did not make + 10 (for stats) but it did make +5, IF you had made a second trade in the circled area of chart you could of made an extra 15 points. or jus an easy 10. This does not always work but it has good stats. {image}
Billytt

After reading your different posts about position management , i would like to know (if possible) on G/U and A/U what is the maximum number of entries due to false break ( less than 10 pips) we should expect ? I understand that there is always a solution to get out before + 10 pips , but just in case if we don't read the market right we may be expect + 10 , but in fact like Friday with A/U i was expecting +10 down and it did not deliver +10 and i had to manage 3 entries (a bit rock and roll i need to admit , but was able to get out clean just after the Red news)

3 seems to be the average maximum but in case of deadly range it can go up to 5 , based on my visual research
i understand its a difficult question but i try to calculate based on the size of the 04:00 candle what should the the size of my first entry and successive rescue size to get out clean (at least at BE, after +5 on my last entry ) .In fact i would to build a MM based on the worst case scenario situation, to avoid to have my emergency SL touched too often.

The first entry size is based on the 3 parameters:

1. 04:00 candle size
2. numbers of maximum possible entries (due to the account size .... sky is not the limit )
3. TP distance from the last entry


I think (basically i hope) that i understand that we may divide the first entry into 2 bullets in case of retracement before the TP, in order to improve our average price , like this even at +5 from the break we can improve drastically profits ....

Anyway today its Saturday , hope that you will have a nice and pleasant week end , you need to take a rest .... you went dancing 2 times this week .

SB
trying to make everyday the best risk/reward decisions possible
  • #9,742
  • Aug 13, 2016 3:35am Aug 13, 2016 3:35am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} You are same as Mr T just need confidence!! Good weekend and watch out for Inter v Celtic more than 2.5 goals in the match.
I love the systematic approach that is prevalent on this thread...I feel that I have learnt more in the past 2 months here than I did in the last 2 years elsewhere..

Come on you Goals...We have live Prem match tonight..Leicester vs Hull....I hope Mrs Soccerfan allows me to watch...Haha

Ciao for now
Onwards and upwards...
  • #9,743
  • Aug 13, 2016 8:48am Aug 13, 2016 8:48am
[quote=slowbrain;9081974]{quote} Billytt After reading your different posts about position management , i would like to know (if possible) on G/U and A/U what is the maximum number of entries

Hi Bud, I will try and answer later as I am busy right now.
I will need to use careful wording so everyone will understand.
But First , I use +10 for STATS ONLY, +5 is then easier to get.
5 pips doesn't look much return IF you use a small lot size say 5p, 50p £5 but try using £50, £500 AND several lots then compound you are then trading seriously. Catch you later
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #9,744
  • Aug 13, 2016 8:51am Aug 13, 2016 8:51am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Do the same same with Coral, Skybet, Ladbrokes etc. Next have to turn it into real money. Easiest way is to bet on a football match and lay the same game off with Betfair or SMarkets.
I was informed of that ages ago lol, GET MONEY FOR NOTHING. it is a very good idea . a bit like arbritrage using different bookies in different countries , betting on any outcome match like tennis ( no draw possible).
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #9,745
  • Aug 13, 2016 9:16am Aug 13, 2016 9:16am
Quoting billytt
{quote} t 03-55 Sat morning, Hi Mr T, Fri Cable low failed as you said . If I had traded it though I would of gone short and then countered at the high (2 trades running) I would of been - 32 points down, The Long Trade would of been a bigger lot size. It then made +20 which it nearly always does (actually over 50). If you have a bad trade sometimes you may not recoup loss the same day but the stats say you will get it back but maybe over a day or two. edit, What happened Fri does not happen a lot, meaning we had a fail then a good trade then a...
Understood
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,746
  • Aug 13, 2016 11:41am Aug 13, 2016 11:41am
@Billytt
Just been reading some posts by "Cigarguy." His hit and run with 5 pips reminds me of your trading target approach.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,747
  • Aug 13, 2016 10:13pm Aug 13, 2016 10:13pm
[quote=slowbrain;9081974]{quote} Billytt After reading your different posts about position management , i would like to know (if possible) on G/U and A/U what is the maximum number of entries due to false break ( less than 10 pips) we should expect ? I understand that there is always a solution to get out before + 10 pips ,

Hi and it is 04-00 Sunday morning. A/U last Fri , I actually traded it and closed with 2 points ( I did say that it was messing me around). perhaps I knew something subconsciously . I did mention it at the time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au12th.PNG Size: 28 KB

04-00 range was 14.... High was 7692 and Low was 7678.
A = Break of High for +4 fail.
B = Break of Low for +6 fail.
C = Break of High for 2nd time for + 33.
D = Break of Low for 2nd time for +24.
In normal circumstances after first loss we close trade and wait for tomorrow.
I would of Gone long A then gone short B ,2 trades running .
gone long again at C , 3 trades running and that + 33 would of been good as I would of upped my lot size.
I probably would of gone short again at D (1 lot), that 04-00 Range is an excellent trigger to trade off.
It does help to have a big bank though.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #9,748
  • Aug 13, 2016 10:16pm Aug 13, 2016 10:16pm
with my last post, we would of been losing 14 points at any one time. Don't forget adjustment for spread so maybe 16.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #9,749
  • Aug 14, 2016 1:16am Aug 14, 2016 1:16am
Quoting billytt
with my last post, we would of been losing 14 points at any one time. Don't forget adjustment for spread so maybe 16.
Billytt

very clear , thank you for the quality of the answer .
After studying Friday A/U case i came to the conclusion, that A & B position size should the same, but C larger size .

SB
trying to make everyday the best risk/reward decisions possible
  • #9,750
  • Aug 14, 2016 7:38pm Aug 14, 2016 7:38pm
Trade well all.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #9,751
  • Aug 15, 2016 6:48am Aug 15, 2016 6:48am
good afternoon, I couldn't get on FF earlier but then again I was trading. I got in a mess last night with Cable. I had my friend around and we both shorted Cable and then it retraced up . anyway we hammered it but it took over 12 hours lol .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15th yay.PNG Size: 32 KB

the above trades including an A/U, were all good, I have not shown the bad Cable trade with the counter trades. But I took over 4k with all trades yay, sleep time zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #9,752
  • Aug 15, 2016 8:27am Aug 15, 2016 8:27am
t14-26, I had a sleep. I meant to say. I tried to place a bet on WH and it wouldn't let me lol. I know Celtic was cancelled but I tried a Sunday game. It would of been good. Perhaps I did something wrong but shall look again.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #9,753
  • Aug 15, 2016 9:45am Aug 15, 2016 9:45am
Just found another, this is posted in a very old thread with the emphasis on keeping it simple lol, Thread starter suggests using an RSI and keep your eye on the trend . Chart has nothing to do with thread.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yay.PNG Size: 291 KB
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #9,754
  • Edited 1:06pm Aug 15, 2016 10:22am | Edited 1:06pm
Cable chart posted 16:15 hours,

Failed long. Short got your ten.

Not the way I trade but might consider the following:
Viz; Another good break short of 4 am bar low, by the 8 am to 12 am bar but I don't think Billy trades that way - He will confirm I hope.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Billy1615.jpg Size: 260 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,755
  • Aug 15, 2016 10:29am Aug 15, 2016 10:29am
Quoting billytt
Quoting slowbrain
{quote} Billytt After reading your different posts about position management , i would like to know (if possible) on G/U and A/U what is the maximum number of entries due to false break ( less than 10 pips) we should expect ? I understand that there is always a solution to get out before + 10 pips , Hi and it is 04-00 Sunday morning. A/U last Fri , I actually traded it and closed with 2 points ( I did say that it was messing me around). perhaps I knew something subconsciously . I did mention it at the time. {image} 04-00
...
Thanks for the explanation Billy. I've been lurking here for a while and skimmed through the thread and now I've got a question related to your explanation above. It's obvious to me that when things go right it's all fine but the backup plan is the crucial part imo. So: what if you don't get your statistically proven 5 pips. For the first fail, the explanation above + suitable position size is the answer. But let's say that doesn't work out. Example: let's say you go for 10 pips and let's say we start a day earlier than your example, and let's say you fail to get 10 pips on Thursday the 11th Aug twice. Would you then a) leave the hedge and wait for Friday, b) leave a pending short overnight at 0.76922 and a pending long at 0.7713 (have to stay up all night then lol). In case of b) you would be out of the hole if you increase the pos sizes "enough" (let's say 1 long, 1+2 shorts with 22 pips to make up for), In case of a) the long would add to the long position, the short would cause the 2nd hedge (in case the same pos. size as the long), and then what - you place a long again at 0.76922 at yet increased pos. size ? Or the same pos. size as earlier on Friday ? And what would be the goal, e.g. you assume a 20 pips swing "sometime" so that's got to make up for the hedges and "then some", that being what ? Of course, one could also eploy other statistical advantages in between, but that may not solve you're being in the hole. Would be nice to get some pointers, thanks !

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes courage to grow up and become who you really are - E.E. Cummings
  • #9,756
  • Aug 15, 2016 10:36am Aug 15, 2016 10:36am
Quoting turnip15
Cable chart posted 06:15 hours, Failed long. Short got your ten. Not the way I trade but might consider the following: Viz; Another good break short of 4 am bar low, by the 8 am to 12 am bar but I don't think Billy trades that way - He will confirm I hope. {image}

Hi Mr T , every 4 hour candle has the potential to have high/low broken but the 04-00 candle has extremely good odds of being good, even after a fail we still have good odds of correcting it (or making it better ) to trade following trigger.
(I say ODDS) perhaps this is not the correct word.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #9,757
  • Aug 15, 2016 10:39am Aug 15, 2016 10:39am
[quote=PippyTheGrt;9084632]{quote}{quote} Thanks for the explanation Billy. I've been lurking here for a while and skimmed through the thread and now I've got a question related to your explanation above. It's obvious to me that when things go right it's all fine but the backup plan is the crucial part imo. So:
PippyTheGrt, hello and welcome. I shall answer your question later . I am just going out with daughter in dinghy , I almost forgot I had one lol, Take care and I will answer later.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #9,758
  • Aug 15, 2016 10:54am Aug 15, 2016 10:54am
[quote=billytt;9084658]
Quoting PippyTheGrt
{quote}{quote} Thanks for the explanation Billy. I've been lurking here for a while and skimmed through the thread and now I've got a question related to your explanation above. It's obvious to me that when things go right it's all fine but the backup plan is the crucial part imo. So: PippyTheGrt, hello and welcome. I shall answer your question later . I am just going out with daughter in dinghy , I almost forgot I had one lol, Take care and I will answer later.
Thank you sir, looking forward to it. Have fun !
It takes courage to grow up and become who you really are - E.E. Cummings
  • #9,759
  • Aug 15, 2016 11:23am Aug 15, 2016 11:23am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi Mr T , every 4 hour candle has the potential to have high/low broken but the 04-00 candle has extremely good odds of being good, even after a fail we still have good odds of correcting it (or making it better ) to trade following trigger. (I say ODDS) perhaps this is not the correct word.
Thanks Billy. Enjoy the dinghy trip.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,760
  • Aug 15, 2016 7:54pm Aug 15, 2016 7:54pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Thanks Billy. Enjoy the dinghy trip.
t 01-51 .hi Mr T, we had fun in the dinghy even though it was quite windy but warm. we did struggle with the wind though, slowed us down.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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