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AUD/USD

  • #98,541
  • Aug 12, 2016 10:34am Aug 12, 2016 10:34am
Rolling back to 0.7200 soon.
Money never sleeps I can hear the dollar calling me
  • #98,542
  • Aug 12, 2016 12:12pm Aug 12, 2016 12:12pm
Quoting shivam332
Rolling back to 0.7200 soon.
Hope so bro decided to keep mine running , may regret but lots potential for collapse here
  • #98,543
  • Aug 12, 2016 4:40pm Aug 12, 2016 4:40pm
Quoting ell3
{quote} Youre better disciplined than me. I couldn't resist a buy at 7710...and I ended up losing 6 pips in 30secs as it suddenly began falling. What an idiot I am. on that note...whatssup with the USDkinda surprised. Ok anyway really off for the weekend now. Seeya all on Monday!
AUD has a very bearish d1 top pin so buying is out of the question I just wished I shorted that spike.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,544
  • Aug 12, 2016 4:58pm Aug 12, 2016 4:58pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} AUD has a very bearish d1 top pin so buying is out of the question I just wished I shorted that spike.
I know bro, those guys buying there was suicidal , it was someone big that cut them apart the way it came down was terrifying for a buyer( for audusd standards not dragon level ) . Should come back up timidly to 77 , prime for the sell hopefully. I'm convinced the bankers are waiting behind 77.
Anyways, chill few beers, tough week trading. -.go crows
  • #98,545
  • Aug 12, 2016 5:20pm Aug 12, 2016 5:20pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Yes US data was a shocker could be a game changer for my analysis and why I wanted to wait until monday for an entry Same for N/U Lets just wait and see where the daily closes...
Daily ended up closing bearish as. Classic evening star set up.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,546
  • Aug 12, 2016 6:54pm Aug 12, 2016 6:54pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Daily ended up closing bearish as. Classic evening star set up.
lots of US data next week if Red numbers continue you will see sentiment shift and become real bearish on USD
That means all majors gaining on USD specially EU GU both have been oversold.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #98,547
  • Aug 12, 2016 10:24pm Aug 12, 2016 10:24pm
Aussie starting its' long term bearish swing I think
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #98,548
  • Aug 12, 2016 10:52pm Aug 12, 2016 10:52pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Aussie starting its' long term bearish swing I think {image} {image} {image}
Well, could be but I don't think that it is already starting. I give it a 50% chance only.

One last push to 0.7760 would be best and bounce from there.
If not, I enter later on when things get going.
If it correlates with Gold, then yes cause Gold I am bearish on now.
  • #98,549
  • Aug 12, 2016 11:03pm Aug 12, 2016 11:03pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} lots of US data next week if Red numbers continue you will see sentiment shift and become real bearish on USD That means all majors gaining on USD specially EU GU both have been oversold. {image}
To the traders who like to calculate the gap on next monday opening
however, this is the gap at closing on friday ..... But it might change on open !!
This simple table will show the gap for some pairs as per my calculations between netdania and mt4 .
So you can calculate your losses or gains for the open trades
this is a personal trial to find ow muc the gao will be for these pairs.
Negative points is meaning that the price moved real down these pips while mt4 does not show this movement to south
positive points is meaning that the price moved real up these pips while mt4 does not show this movement to north

Attached Image

it might also change ON OPENING AS THERE IS 2 HOURS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NET DANIA AND MT4 (IN NETDANIA FAVOR )
Good luck
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #98,550
  • Aug 12, 2016 11:41pm Aug 12, 2016 11:41pm
I just changed my bias from short term bearish to intermediate term bearish trend.
However, I would like a retrace to add more position
Take my view with a pinch of salt!
  • #98,551
  • Aug 13, 2016 9:37am Aug 13, 2016 9:37am
I don't know if anyone here uses Ichimoku. I don't normally keep it on my charts but I look at it on the weekend on the higher time frames.

Anyway, I'm sort of inclined to think that this may be just a 200 pip or so correction before the pair makes an attempt to go higher. You can see that price is now above the kumo cloud on the weekly chart. I'm thinking that price may make an attempt at 77 again before dropping to about 7450 or so.

I'm also bearish on gold and bullish on the USDX in the short term, so I expect to see some pressure on this pair next week. I just wonder how long the selling will last.
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  • #98,552
  • Aug 13, 2016 3:35pm Aug 13, 2016 3:35pm
Quoting attilafx
{quote} Well, could be but I don't think that it is already starting. I give it a 50% chance only. One last push to 0.7760 would be best and bounce from there. If not, I enter later on when things get going. If it correlates with Gold, then yes cause Gold I am bearish on now.
To be honest I wouldn't know, but the daily is looking sharp on top.
I get my perspective off the weekly charts primarily
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #98,553
  • Aug 13, 2016 6:06pm Aug 13, 2016 6:06pm
Quoting attilafx
{quote} Well, could be but I don't think that it is already starting. I give it a 50% chance only. One last push to 0.7760 would be best and bounce from there. If not, I enter later on when things get going. If it correlates with Gold, then yes cause Gold I am bearish on now.
0.7760 been rejected already and moved down. Will be licking my lips If it tries that level again
  • #98,554
  • Aug 14, 2016 4:48am Aug 14, 2016 4:48am
I will close my short position in the box area and looking for long this pair.
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  • #98,555
  • Aug 14, 2016 4:56am Aug 14, 2016 4:56am
The Aussie is in a sideways mode although the potential to push further downwards is stronger on the intraday time frames.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #98,556
  • Aug 14, 2016 5:38am Aug 14, 2016 5:38am
Bullish on the pair.
  • #98,557
  • Aug 14, 2016 8:01am Aug 14, 2016 8:01am
Okay, the AUD closed the week with conflicting signals.

- Friday's US retail sales data basically affirms the case for any US hike to be pushed further back, the implication of which should be slightly bearish for the USD
- The USD has indeed lost out, although only marginally post-data across most major pairs. The exception was with the AUD where the USD has had a net gain after the retail sales data
- This is a question mark --- really?
- It's easy to assume that the AUD's steep fall in the closing hours of the market, plus the fact we just saw a new high at 7760 this week, mean that the "bears have returned" and "we're on the way down!"
- However, the same old adage i keep citing: has the uptrend really ended?
- The AUD has been pushing higher recently because of the carry trade/yield factor...this factor HAS NOT changed in the past few hours/days/data (i.e. no clear shift in easing/raising bias on the US or AU front). again, no fundamentals have changed.
- in the greater scheme of things, the drop from 7760 to 7651 is very small. the AUD is still well within an uptrend channel (see chart)
- It closed the week on the 200hour MA (which it has remained above for most of August). i'd like to see how it behaves around this line before determining the trading bias for the week ahead. I think we'll also need to see why the AUD fell so sharply in the final hours and whether this drop gets reversed on monday - that will be a key signal.

Just my usual weekly summary, sharing with everyone.
all the best trading in the week ahead!
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  • #98,558
  • Aug 14, 2016 9:31am Aug 14, 2016 9:31am
Quoting ell3
Okay, the AUD closed the week with conflicting signals. - Friday's US retail sales data basically affirms the case for any US hike to be pushed further back, the implication of which should be slightly bearish for the USD - The USD has indeed lost out, although only marginally post-data across most major pairs. The exception was with the AUD where the USD has had a net gain after the retail sales data - This is a question mark --- really? - It's easy to assume that the AUD's steep fall in the closing hours of the market, plus the fact we just saw...
Excellent analysis, I'm hoping it breaks the current support 200 ma and bounces down from that eventually , bearish signal . The other factor I'm really wanting if possible is more volatility to disrupt the carry traders going long, now that would see a collapse out of the trend. None these factors happened yet. I still think this going to 75 min and bounce down occur at 77 , 7760.
  • #98,559
  • Aug 14, 2016 9:42am Aug 14, 2016 9:42am
Its important to recognize that there are lots of news events on USD this week.Should the weak red numbers continue on US economy anticipate all majors gaining on USD. AU shooting for 78-78.30 April high is not ruled out depending on data coming up.
To me all indicators pointing slowing down US economy and chance for EU GU and rest of majors to gain on USD.
Could UC break lower pushing AC and all CAD pairs lower? Yes and very likely.99 AC is still ridiculously high 96-95 is likely drop target.
Regards all
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #98,560
  • Aug 14, 2016 12:42pm Aug 14, 2016 12:42pm
Any gaps people?
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