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Strategy with good average monthly profit per year

  • #21
  • Aug 11, 2016 2:49pm Aug 11, 2016 2:49pm
Quoting Daniil
Ibermex and MasterGuru, thank you for explanation. I thought about TP, but in the 2nd screenshot I saw that 2nd deal closed with 500 pips profit (and seems that it was closed not by SL, wasn't it?). I already implemented your method of trailing stop (you may see how this EA accurately move SL on my screenshot). Tomorrow I will add TP.
Dani I'm trying your EA and I love it, I just did a quick test from 2014 to 2016 and it gave me good results. But I tested out form 2010 to 2016 and the results were negative. I think it's because the EA, it doesn't do all the entries properly. Many of them are well done, but others are not.

In the image attached, I marked in purple where the entry should be, and as you can see, the EA made the entry a few days later, which means a lot pips less gained.

I didn't mentioned, but in my strategy, I was increasing 10% of lot size, every 10% of equity gained, in that way the growth is exponential.

Also, I didn't tell you, that I also make the entries at first time when the new candle is made. I'm living in Mexico and here every day is at 4pm (I guess because is when Tokyo open the stocks market?). So right in that moment, when the new candle is made, I decide to open the position or not...

I realised that the CCI indicator is not that important thing, because I'm just paying attention to the direction of the line (that should 90 to 45 for selling positions). Actually I think it could better deleting CCI on the strategy, and just measuring the close price and the open price of the previous and current candle. I mean, if we are pretending to sell, and the open price of the new candle, is above of the previous closing price, the position shouldn't be opened. If the open price of the current candle is same or less than the previous candle, then that signal is positive ( for selling positions, for buying it should be the opposite).

Hope this works to improve the EA, but so far it works awesome!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ENTRY.jpg Size: 704 KB
  • #22
  • Aug 11, 2016 2:52pm Aug 11, 2016 2:52pm
Quoting Daniil
Ibermex and MasterGuru, thank you for explanation. I thought about TP, but in the 2nd screenshot I saw that 2nd deal closed with 500 pips profit (and seems that it was closed not by SL, wasn't it?). I already implemented your method of trailing stop (you may see how this EA accurately move SL on my screenshot). Tomorrow I will add TP.
In the 500 pips position, I didn't measured it properly, but I think that it was closed by SL, if not, then the position should be gaining pips until it gets closed by itself.

The thing is, if any position gets until 1000 pips, it should be get closed automatically, and open a new one if all the conditions are positive.
  • #23
  • Aug 12, 2016 11:55am Aug 12, 2016 11:55am
Hello Ibermex.

About missed entry on your screenshot: we should have at least 2 yellow candles that's why EA didn't open a sell on this bar. And the next bar also is not good, because angle of CCI is less that 45.

Today I improved the EA with correct SL level calculation and added new entry condition (open of current bar is >= that close of previous for Buy and vise versa for Sell).

> Also, I didn't tell you, that I also make the entries at first time when the new candle is made.

Yes, EA is working on the same principle.

Also I tried to remove CCI angle condition but without it result is very poor. You may remove CCI angle condition from the EA as shown below on the screenshot and try to test.

2 questions:
- what broker do you use? I want to try demo to be in sync with you
- how do you increase a lot size of already opened order?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12-08-2016 19-48-40.png Size: 55 KB

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 plano_2.mq4   3 KB | 296 downloads
  • #24
  • Edited Aug 13, 2016 12:18am Aug 12, 2016 2:29pm | Edited Aug 13, 2016 12:18am
Hi Dani,

I just tried your new version. It works well, but still is doing wrong entries. I marked the entries on the screenshot.

Regarding the CCI, you are right, the results are better keeping the CCI on the strategy.

I think that I didn't explain myself properly at the first time. For any entry, for example selling, we need at least 1 formed yellow candle, and 1 formed red candle. Meaning both Heiken Ashi smoothed and Heiken Ashi regular, should have 1 formed candle. Then, at the next day, if the candles are also red and yellow, the the Heiken Ashi confirmations are positive. We just have to keep attention to the rest of the signals....

I'm using Dukascopy, so far a really good broker. The bad thing is that they use Jforex, not Metatrader, and the Jforex community is very small and not active. I tried my strategy just opening the charts in another broker with Metatrader, and making the entries in my Dukascopy platform, at the end is the same, because my strategy it doesn't get affected by spreads, since we don't do scalping or staff like that. We also don't get affected by news or volatility, so you can try the strategy for example with Pepperstone.

Would be good to synchronize the results even with different brokers, but I think the results are going to be same or very very similar.

I don't increase the size lot of an opened order. That order will keep the same size until get closed by SL. I mean, if you start your account with 10.000 EUR, you are trading EURUSD at 0.372 lots to risk 5% of your account (if you loose, you will loose 500 EUR = 5%) , and your equity increase in 10%, you will have 11.000 EUR. Then, you have to increase in 10% the lot size for the next position. So the next, EURUSD trade, will be 0.372 + 0.0372 = .4092

Think that every time that you have a "saved" position by 15 SL, you can open a new one. Then if for example with an opened position, you have "secured" more a 10% equity, you may open a new position in any other currency with a 10% lot size increase...but the position size itself once it is opened, it doesn't get increased.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Review_plano_2.jpg Size: 811 KB
  • #25
  • Aug 12, 2016 2:41pm Aug 12, 2016 2:41pm
Continuing to watch with keen interest. Well done, guys on the progress made so far.
  • #26
  • Aug 12, 2016 4:05pm Aug 12, 2016 4:05pm
Quoting ibermex
For any entry, for example selling, we need at least 1 formed yellow candle, and 1 formed red candle. Meaning both Heiken Ashi smoothed and Heiken Ashi regular, should have 1 formed candle. Then, at the next day, if the candles are also red and yellow, the the Heiken Ashi confirmations are positive.
When we open position at the beginning of current day, it does not matter that colour of Heiken Ashi'es will be at the end of current day :-) You may test EA with 2 or with 1 candle but disabling "is_ha_smooth_rising(2)" and "is_ha_rising(2)" for buy (and "!is_ha_smooth_rising(2)" and "!is_ha_rising(2)" for sell). I tested without 2nd bar confirmation but results are not good.

About false signals in your screenshot:
1) Chikou span is above previous bar close by 0.1 of pip :-) That's why EA opened buy
2) No selling position because MACD's value is greater than MACD's signal line. I understood your "MACD either entering the bullish trend or leaving the bearish trend." in such way: if MACD main histogram is above MACD signal line, then MACD suggests about buy.
3) Same as point #1. I have added "debug" option to the EA, so you may set it to true and you will see values of indicators when position was opened

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 plano_2_debug.mq4   4 KB | 276 downloads
  • #27
  • Edited 7:06pm Aug 12, 2016 4:30pm | Edited 7:06pm
I didn't understand correctly what you mean in your points 1 and 2. I attached an screeshot where I mark where the chikou span should be. Always for a buy position, the chikou span (green line in my template) should have at least crossed the tenkan sen (red line) to get approved for a long position. If not, the position can't be opened, because there is a lot of chances that the price is not going long, but is going short. I think that I didn't explain my self properly in my first post, I'm sorry.

About the MACD, I don't know too much about programming, but the way I trade, that selling position (the one of my previous review) on april, it should be opened, because the red line of the MACD was entering the white lines...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: REVIEW.jpg Size: 747 KB
  • #28
  • Edited 9:57pm Aug 12, 2016 8:04pm | Edited 9:57pm
Quoting Daniil
{quote} When we open position at the beginning of current day, it does not matter that colour of Heiken Ashi'es will be at the end of current day :-) You may test EA with 2 or with 1 candle but disabling "is_ha_smooth_rising(2)" and "is_ha_rising(2)" for buy (and "!is_ha_smooth_rising(2)" and "!is_ha_rising(2)" for sell). I tested without 2nd bar confirmation but results are not good. About false signals in your screenshot: 1) Chikou span is above previous bar close by 0.1 of pip :-) That's why EA opened buy 2) No selling position because MACD's...
I think that the only thing we need to do is add the lot size increasing for every 10% extra equity and fix the fact of the Chikou Span breakout thing, the Chikou Span need to have the Tenkan Sen already crossed from below to above for long positions, and is just the opposite, crossing from above to below for short.

Good job Daniil!
  • #29
  • Aug 13, 2016 5:52am Aug 13, 2016 5:52am
Good morning, Ibermex.

I have added tenkan sen and %% risk lot calculation -- I calculate lot size for every new position but sometimes I get order modify error 130 (probably lot size is too big? I didn't found a solution yet). So, I increase/decrease lot size every position. This is not the same as you expected but I think it is ok for a first time. There is a new setting in EA -- risk_percent:
- if risk_percent set to 0, then default lot = 0.1 will be used for all positions
- if risk_percent set to some positive value then lot will be calculated as a percent of depo for every new position

Let's assume, now is 00:00 of a new day (vertical red line on the chart) and we got a 1st tick. Then EA will calculate indis and check these conditions for BUY:
- chikou of 26th day back > Close of yesterday
- tenkan of 26th day back < chikou of 26th day back
- ha_smooth of yesterday is rising
- ha_smooth of day before yesterday is rising
- ha of yesterday is rising
- ha of day before yesterday is rising
- angle of CCI day before yesterday and yesterday is > 45 degrees
- yesterday's macd bar > yesterday's macd signal line
- yesterday's Stoch > Stoch of day before yesterday

Why there is no Sell signal on the screenshot below:
- all conditions are met except MACD: yesterday's macd bar should be less that yesterday's macd signal line, but in the expert log (and on the chart) we see that macd bar is -0.00641 and MACD signal line is -0.00699 => macd bar > macd signal. So, MACD's signal line is going to enter "white lines" but actually entered them only tomorrow on 11th of April.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-08-13_1240.png Size: 87 KB

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 plano_3.mq4   4 KB | 302 downloads
  • #30
  • Edited 1:10pm Aug 13, 2016 12:54pm | Edited 1:10pm
Hello hello!

So I tested out the new EA, and the results now are a bit worse...but I think that we should find a solution for some entries. Have a look at the chart, if I were manual trading on 2015/10/23 I opened a position that day for sure, because are the signal are positive, but the EA opened the position the day after. In my strategy, what I used it was always just 1 bar confirmation, after 1 bar of the trending colors is formed, if the bar of the next day at 00.00 are of the same colors, I open the position.

If you have a look of why there is so many loosing entries, you will see that is mainly because the positions are being opened on the 3rd or 4rd bar, then you have missed a lot of pips from the previous bar, and you can't get the 50 pips to move the SL to 15.

The risk % works well I think Actually is better the way you did it, every time any position is opened, it recalculated the risk, so it will always a 5%, that's awesome.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: review_3.jpg Size: 702 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: review_3_1.jpg Size: 640 KB
  • #31
  • Aug 14, 2016 6:18am Aug 14, 2016 6:18am
Hello, Ibermex.

Quoting ibermex
Have a look at the chart, if I were manual trading on 2015/10/23 I opened a position that day for sure, because are the signal are positive, but the EA opened the position the day after.
My bad. I played with 1-bar and 2-bar confirmations and accidentally uploaded version with 2-bar confirmation. Now I improved the EA and you may find new option in EA parameters -- "two_bar_confirmation":
- set to false if only one bar of ha and ha_smooth is enough for open a position
- set to true if 2 bars of ha and ha_smooth are required

Quoting ibermex
In my strategy, what I used it was always just 1 bar confirmation, after 1 bar of the trending colors is formed, if the bar of the next day at 00.00 are of the same colors, I open the position.
How can I see a color of "the bar of the next day at 00.00"? It is just started forming. We have only 1 tick of it.
BTW, do you still using a condition: open buy only if current bar Open greater or equal yesterday's bar Close? (The EA is still using it.)

Quoting ibermex
The risk % works well I think Actually is better the way you did it, every time any position is opened, it recalculated the risk, so it will always a 5%, that's awesome.
Nice! Could you please take a look into your MT tester's journal for OrderModify errors #130? Sometimes I get them on my broker...

Happy testing
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 plano_4.mq4   4 KB | 302 downloads
  • #32
  • Aug 14, 2016 3:04pm Aug 14, 2016 3:04pm
Sweet strategy.....

Excellent work Ibermex and Daniil....
  • #33
  • Aug 14, 2016 8:37pm Aug 14, 2016 8:37pm
Hello Daniil!

About your question of how can I see "the bar of the next day at 00.00" I mean that the color of the bar when is just formed and all the indicators value are the ones who are telling the EA if open a trade or not.

About "open buy only if current bar Open greater or equal yesterday's bar Close" I think that you may delete that condition.

I tested the EA during 6 months, and I found many missed entries and some wrong entries. I think that I didn't explain myself properly about the CCI conditions. I attached a picture where you can see how the CCI direction of the line should be to make a entry.

The Stochastic conditions when I'm manually trading are, if the red line has crossed or is crossing the blue line, then the condition is valid.

For MACD I use manually trading, for a short position, if the white bar is equal or lower than the red line, then the condition is valid for a entry, and the opposite for long positions.

I attached a screenshot with the exact day of missed and wrong entries. You will see on the top, how everything looks just when the bar opened. Below is just the screenshot of how the EA is making the entries. How I said, I always take the decision of entering or not on the market, depending of what I'm seeing when the new candles are just formed. The screenshots of the top of the picture are taken right on that moment.

Manually trading with my conditions are giving me around 15% average per month, some months less or even a bit of loose, but some months even up to 30% profit.

Btw, I'm using now Admiral Markets, we may use the same broker to see exactly the same charts.

We are close to get it, we just have to fix that things are we are on the way!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: analysis.jpg Size: 1.9 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: CCI parameters.jpg Size: 263 KB
  • #35
  • Aug 15, 2016 6:23am Aug 15, 2016 6:23am
Quoting ibermex
Hello Daniil! About your question of how can I see "the bar of the next day at 00.00" I mean that the color of the bar when is just formed and all the indicators value are the ones who are telling the EA if open a trade or not.
Ok. This is how the EA works

Quoting ibermex
About "open buy only if current bar Open greater or equal yesterday's bar Close" I think that you may delete that condition.
Okay, I will delete it

Quoting ibermex
I tested the EA during 6 months, and I found many missed entries and some wrong entries. I think that I didn't explain myself properly about the CCI conditions. I attached a picture where you can see how the CCI direction of the line should be to make a entry.
In the 1st post you wrote that CCI angle should be greater than 45 degrees. And now you are only looking if CCI is rise or fall?

Quoting ibermex
The Stochastic conditions when I'm manually trading are, if the red line has crossed or is crossing the blue line, then the condition is valid.
I use this rule "6. Stochastic red line bullish (going up)." I can change it to this new rule.

Quoting ibermex
For MACD I use manually trading, for a short position, if the white bar is equal or lower than the red line, then the condition is valid for a entry, and the opposite for long positions.
Yes, I use the same except "is equal". I will add test for equality also.

Quoting ibermex
I attached a screenshot with the exact day of missed and wrong entries. You will see on the top, how everything looks just when the bar opened. Below is just the screenshot of how the EA is making the entries. How I said, I always take the decision of entering or not on the market, depending of what I'm seeing when the new candles are just formed. The screenshots of the top of the picture are taken right on that moment.
Didn't understand about BUYs and SELLs or your screenshot -- are they correct or incorrect?
About enries marked as wrong:
- WRONG1 entry was made because angle of CCI was between -45 and -90 degrees. At the end of current bar you of course can see that CCI was reversed but we make decisions on bar start and can't see the future.
- WRONG2 angle is also inside -45 and -90. On your screenshot it looks like -30, but we can't calculate exact angle of indicator, because it depends of your scale: make CCI's subwindow higher and will notice that CCI's angle will be bigger
- WRONG3 and WRONG4 buying because yesterday's CCI is close to 90 degrees
  • #36
  • Aug 15, 2016 9:40am Aug 15, 2016 9:40am
Morning,

Yes, the CCI conditions are like I explained on the picture, rise and fall please

All the entries of buying and selling on the picture and correct. I just marked how the EA should be making entries. If you have any doubt I will explain the logic of those entries, but all of them are keeping the conditions of the EA.

About the wrong entries:

- W1: The CCI was between 90 and 0 degrees. Yes, finally that position was profitable, but if you see, the proper entry was 2 bars later...
- W2: The CCI was between 90 and 0 degrees.
- W3: The CCI was flat.
  • #37
  • Aug 15, 2016 10:45am Aug 15, 2016 10:45am
Quoting ibermex
Morning, Yes, the CCI conditions are like I explained on the picture, rise and fall please All the entries of buying and selling on the picture and correct. I just marked how the EA should be making entries. If you have any doubt I will explain the logic of those entries, but all of them are keeping the conditions of the EA. About the wrong entries: - W1: The CCI was between 90 and 0 degrees. Yes, finally that position was profitable, but if you see, the proper entry was 2 bars later... - W2: The CCI was between 90 and 0 degrees. - W3: The CCI...
Ibermex, you are talking about different things: you said that you open trades in the begging of a day and at the same time you are looking on the current bar and make decisions.
W1: EA opened this position because yesterday's CCI fall and it didn't open position 2 bars later because currently it opens only one position in the same time
W3: CCI was flat in the middle of a current day bar. But it was rising yesterday. That's why we opened buy. All is correct.

I think that you wonder why I did not take current bar for my calculations? It is obvious: current bar is in progress of forming and all indications are repainting on the current bar. CCI may be flat and after 10 minutes may rise and after 20 minutes can fall.
  • #38
  • Aug 15, 2016 11:10am Aug 15, 2016 11:10am
Quoting Daniil
{quote} Ibermex, you are talking about different things: you said that you open trades in the begging of a day and at the same time you are looking on the current bar and make decisions. W1: EA opened this position because yesterday's CCI fall and it didn't open position 2 bars later because currently it opens only one position in the same time W3: CCI was flat in the middle of a current day bar. But it was rising yesterday. That's why we opened buy. All is correct. I think that you wonder why I did not take current bar for my calculations? It is...
Yes I know that the CCI, MACD and STO may change during the day, but that's the way I trade manually this strategy. If when the new bars are just formed (a new day) and those bar together with the indicators are giving a positive signal, then I make the entry.

The Eiken Ashi Smoothed, get formed on the beginning of the day, and very rarely change it figure. The Eiken Ashi regular is the same, but this indicator can change it figure more easily, also the CCI, MACD and STO can change it position, but this is part of the strategy.

I don't take in consideration what happened with the indicators the day before, just whats going on the very first beginning of the day.
  • #39
  • Aug 15, 2016 4:10pm Aug 15, 2016 4:10pm
Hi Daniil,

Lets try this:

When the new bar is just formed, if all the indicators are positive, the position should be opened. If at the very first beginning when the bars is just created, one or more indicators doesn't give the proper signals but during the day all the signals are positive, the position should be opened as well.

Rgds!
  • #40
  • Aug 15, 2016 8:23pm Aug 15, 2016 8:23pm
The problem with technical indicators is that they are static and being that they are rule based makes the creator prone to fixing them until they are perfect, but they will only be perfect for a certain time horizon and for a certain asset class. The ebb and flow of the market requires a dynamic approach which only fundamental analysis can provide, but when a great technical overlay is applied can yield amazing results. Perhaps you should try to find the fundamental catalyst which works best with your technical strategy as opposed to just focusing on the technical indicator applied to a general market.

When I worked at Morgan Stanley we focused on 70% fundamental and 30% technical and after transitioning to the hedge fund world we still stuck with 70% fundamental but only 20% technical and 10% behavioural analysis. Needless to say we are net profitable every month, if you have any question please feel free to ask.
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